Still continuing in 2005, the real strengthening of the ruble affects negatively the efficiency of export operations, first of all it produces a negative effect on non-primary sectors. Thus, basing on the federal customs service data, over the 7 months of 2005, the cost of export for a group “Machines, equipment and transport means” declined by 7,7%.
In the commodity composition of export the share of fuel and energy goods in January-July accounted for 62,9% of the whole volume of export (in January-July of previous year – 55,6%), metals and products from them – 16,3% (18%), chemical industry products – 6,1% (6,9%), timber and pulpand-paper products – 3,8% (4,5%), machines and equipment – 4,9% (7,8%).
High growth rates of Russian imports are maintained by further expansion of the domestic demand at real efficient strengthening of the ruble. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia, in July the ruble strengthening (in real terms) against the euro made around 0,7%, weakening against dollar – 0,6%. On the whole, for January-July 2005, the strengthening of national currency to dollar is estimated at 2,7%, to the euro – 15,7%, the real effective exchange rate – 9,2%.
The expansion of domestic demand is stimulated by rapidly growing real disposable incomes of the population, which growth over the 7 months of this year amounted to 8,3% (9,1% a year before), including in July – 7,5% (9,8%).
A boost in the volumes of import of commodities occurred due to growth of deliveries from farabroad countries in the reduction of physical volumes of import from CIS states. Thus, the index of actual volume of import deliveries from the far-abroad countries in January-July this year amounted 130,3%, while from CIS states – 91%. In parallel with that, price constituent determined growth of import from CIS states. The price index for products imported from the CIS states amounted 119,9%, while that for products imported from the far-abroad countries – only 103,8%.
In January-July this year the proportional weight of food products and agricultural raw materials in the commodity structure of import changed insignificantly and constituted 18,3% (analogous indicator of previous year - 18,8%). The share of machines and equipment in January-July 2005, in comparison with the respective period of 2004, increased from 40,6% to 42,9%, and their value volume grew by 21%.
Despite considerable growth in importing of machines and equipment into Russia, the government is intended to continue stimulating the expansion of import deliveries of this group of commodities: in the near future it is planned to abolish all import duties for industrial equipment, which is not produced in Russia. This will allow to conduct technical re-equipment of domestic enterprises, which major problem is considerable depreciation and inadequate efficiency of production facilities. As of today, the Russian machine-building cannot satisfy all the requirements to equipment dictated by the presentday industrial development.
Relieving of import duties began for importation of the equipment of pulp-and-paper, furniture, light and textile industries. The import duties have already been reduced for technological lines on production of infant's food, car painting lines, for some types of presses and milling machines for heavy industry and even for component parts for nuclear-power reactors. Along with that, the government abolished the customs duty for importation of washing machines, printing, timber-processing equipment, and also for a period of nine months - woodworking equipment. Next in turn is question abolishing of import duties for offset printers, some types of electric appliances and component parts for washing machines. Also, reduction of import duties for digital audio- and video equipment is planned form 15-20 to 10%.
Reduction of import duties is one of basic terms on which Russia will access to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russia has already finished negotiations on WTO accession with 33 of 50 countries. With nine countries the negotiations are close to completion. However, there is still a long way to go until the final agreement has been reached with the U.S. Canada, Australia, Sweden and several developing countries.
In September 2005 the regular U.S.-Russia talks were held regarding Russia’s WTO accession. Despite the opinion of the American side that all preconditions exist for the U.S.-Russia talks on Russia’s WTO accession to be completed by late 2005, some controversial issues cannot be settled as yet.
These are, first of all some issues concerning aircraft industry, tariffs and subsidies in agriculture, access conditions to the Russian marker of financial and insurance services of foreign companies, intellectual property rights protection, and a number of other que8stions. These are questions where the Russian side cannot make concessions, as in the event foreign companies get a free access to the Russia market, a considerable part of Russian banks, insurers and domestic produces will go into liquidation. Next round of the U.S.-Russia negotiations will be held in October 2005.
N.Volovik An Analysis of the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2006 and Feasibility of Macroeconomic Pre-conditions of the Draft Federal Budget of Presented, together with the draft law “On the federal budget for 2006”, the forecast of socioeconomic development for 2006 and parameters of the economy development until 2008 contain the two variants of development of the RF economy:
Variant I – inertial development, is characterized by lowering of the competitiveness of the Russian economy, absence of positive changes in the investment climate. It does not provide implementation of new large-scale projects or strategies. The original forecast assumptions of this variant provide dramatic worsening of the state of affairs on the world markets of energy recourses – fall in oil prices of “Urals" in 2006 to USD 28 a barrel with its following stabilization at that level. In this case the slowdown in exports will make in 2006, in value terms, 22%, with growth of the volume of exports by 9,0% and the volume of production – by 5,3%. In such scenario of development the growth rates of GDP from 5,9% in 2005 are slowing down in the years to follow to 4,0-4,6%, which will provide 20% of GDP increment over the period of 2005-2008 against 2004.
Variant II – is based on strengthening the innovation component of economic growth resting on implementation of a package of institutional transformations and the development strategies of key sectors of the economy against the background of maintenance of favorable state of affairs on the foreign market. This variant is considered as basic one for forming the draft federal budget for 2006 and the Financial Projections until 2008.
This variant contains the fall in oil price of "Urals" from USD 48 a barrel in 2005 to USD 40 – in 2006, and USD 35 and 36 in the following years. For the purpose of stimulation of the economic growth, a complex of measures have been provided for lowering the tax burden on business and increasing the level of investment expenditures of the federal budget, including establishing the investment fund. The growth rates of the Russian economy in 2005–2008 will make according to variant II 5,9-6% with the growth of GDP over the forecasted period by 25,8%.
External Conditions of the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development 2005 Forecast Variant estimate 2006 2007 I 28 28 28,"Urals" oil price (world), USD/barrel 34,4 II 40 35 I 470 480 488 Oil production, mln. t 458,II 474 487 495 I 646 653 Gas production, bcm 632 II 649 656 I 263 272 279 Oil export, mln. t 257,II 268,6 278 285 I 204,0 244 Gas export, bcm 200,4 II 208 249 Growth rates of world economy, % I, II 5,1 4,3 4,4 4,4 4,Euro rate (average annual), doll. against euro I, II 1,24 1,25 1,23 1,24 1,The development of economy within the scenario-based conditions of Variant II provides essential modifications of the structure of final demand against enhancing of the role of factors of expansion of the domestic demand. In 2006-2008, lessening of the impute of the external demand in GDP increment is determined by slowdown of growth of export of goods and services from 13,1% in 2004 to 4,1% in 2008 at the background of tempered lowering export prices. The share of net export of goods and services in the structure of use of GDP will be reduced from 14,6% in 2005 to 2,5% in 2008 accordingly.
The slowdown in growth rates of export of goods and services will lead to reduction of its share in GDP from 35,3% in 2004 to 24,6% in 2008. It is assumed that slowing down of the rates of export and reduction of the share of energy sources will lead to strengthening of orientation of the foreign economic activity to importation of machines and equipment, products of lumber industry, in stabilization of the share of chemical industry. It should be noted that within the frame of this scenario it is assumed a gradual overcoming of the trend to increasing the share of import in forming the resources of the domestic market. The share of import in the structure of the domestic market resources will make in 2008 22,2%, which corresponds to the respective value of 2004.
The determining factor of development of the Russian economy in 2006-2008 will become the dynamics of the domestic demand (7,8-8,6%). Increasing of the contribution of domestic producers to satisfying the domestic demand for goods and services, which will occur as a result of not only increased competitiveness of domestic goods but also advanced growth of the share of services.
Dynamics of the External and Domestic Demand (Variant II), %, to Previous Year Forecast 2003 2004 2006 2007 GDP 7,3 7,2 5,9 5,8 5,9 6,Domestic demand*) 8,3 9,9 8,6 8,6 7,8 8,Imports 19,5 23,5 16,7 13,4 13,2 11,Domestic production 3,6 5 5,8 7,0 6,1 7,External demand (export) 12,5 12,3 6,4 3,0 5,8 4,The structure of sources of domestic demand 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,increment imports 64,6 63,4 50 38,9 40,3 32,domestic production 35,4 36,6 50 61,1 59,7 67,*) in prices of previous year The dynamics of import will be determined by gradual strengthening of the national currency, the needs of technological re-engineering of growing economy, the growth of enterprises and households disposable incomes. In Variant II it is forecasted an increase in the import structure of the share of investment goods at some reduction of the proportional weight of consumer and intermediate import.
consumer 45,1 44,2 43,7 42,4 41, intermediate 28,7 28,2 25,5 24,7 23, investment 26,2 27,6 30,8 32,9 35,The dynamics of the final demand will be largely determined by the growth of the final consumption of households. The share of government consumption in 2006-2008 will grow against the level of 2004 (16,6% GDP) and will be stabilized at 17,7-17,5% GDP, which is associated with growth of the government support in the educational sphere, healthcare, pension coverage, and the militaryindustrial complex. The growth rates of government demand will rise to 4,7-4,0% in 2006-against 2,3% in 2003-2004.
The growth of consumer demand of households will slightly slow down: from 10,7% in 2004 to 9,6% in 2005 and 8,8-8,1% in 2006-2008. Continuation of the rise in demand will provide the growth rates of retail sales – by 9,0-7,9% and paid services for the population by 5,6-6,1%. Widening of the scope of consumption is determined by the trend of dynamic growth of real wages and real disposable incomes of the population. It should be noted that the forecast prolongs the trends of advanced growth of wages in relation to labor productivity and raising the share of wages fund in GDP from 23,7% in 2004, to 24,3% in 2006 and 25,1% in 2008.
The forecast of socio-economic development is based on the hypothesis of advanced growth of investments in the fixed assets (148%) wit6h regard to the dynamics of GDP (125,8%). As a result, the effect of the investment component will be strengthened in the structure of the domestic demand in comparison with previous years. The share of gross accumulation of fixed assets in GDP will grow from 18,1% in 2004 to 19,6% in 2006 and 22,9% in 2008. As well, the trend is forecasted towards strengthening the processes of transformation of the economy incomes into investments in the real sector of the economy. The share of investments in GDP will grow from 16,5% in 2004 to 18,3% in 2006 and 20,5% in 2008.
In the structure of the sources of financing the investments it is forecasted a shift in intensive attraction of funds. The share of attracted funds in the total volume of investments will grow from 53,2% in 2004 to 57,0 in 2006 and 58,8% in 2008г. In parallel with that, the share of bank credits in investments will grow from 7,3% in 2004 to 10,4% in 2008. An extra increment of investments in the fixed assets due to tax novations is estimated at 1,2 percentage point in 2006 and 0,7 percentage point on average in 2007-2008. Own means of enterprises and organizations, intended for investments, will grow 2,times, including the disposable incomes 1,9 times in increasing the total volume of investments from all the sources of financing 1,48 times against 2004.
It is to be noted that the forecast of investment activity is based on the hypothesis of an increase in the share of investment expenditures from the federal budget to 2,31% of GDP in 2008 against 1,79% in 2005 and 1,36% in 2004. In addition, it is assumed that foreign investments in the Russian economy will increase by advanced rates in comparison with the domestic sources of financing of investments, and will reach in 2008 USD 22.0 bn against USD 8.9 bn in 2005 and USD 12.0 bn in 2006.
The Structure of Sources of Investment in Fixed Assets (Variant II), % 2004 2005 2006 2007 Investment in fixed assets 100 100 100 100 Including the sources:
own means 46,8 44,6 43,0 42,2 41,attracted means 53,2 55,4 57,0 57,8 58,including:
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