The dynamics of prices have significantly differentiated between extracting and manufacturing industries. Whereas prices of products of extracting industries have increased in comparison with the figures registered in the beginning of 2005 by 33.3 per cent, prices charged for production and distribution of water and natural gas grew by 12.3 per cent, and freight tariffs increased by 22.5 per cent, the index of prices of producers of manufactured goods made 106.2 per cent. The moderate price policies of domestic producers of final demand goods were significantly affected by changes observed in the competitive environment and growing pressure of imports occurring at the background of the Ruble appreciation.
in December of 2003 in December of Fig. Changes in the indices of prices of producers of manufactured goods in August of 2004 and At the same time, it should be noted that dynamic increase in prices of fuel and energy resources and products observed over the last two months of this year are becoming a factor generating growth in prices of final demand goods. The 2.5 per cent increase in prices charged by producers of manufactured goods, which occurred in July and August of 2005, was caused by the 11.2 per cent growth in the prices fuel and energy resources, including the 15.0 per cent increase in the prices of crude oil. As concerns manufacturing industries, over this period the most significant growth in prices (14.2 per cent) was registered in production of oil products. In this connection it should be noted that the measures taken in order to freeze retail prices of oil products are only a palliative, since these measures do not affect the wholesale market and form a potential of inflationary surge of production costs under the impact of changes in the dynamics and structure of prices of energy resources.
O. I. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry in September of September failed to bring the long awaited recovery of Russian industry. The results of surveys have demonstrated the persisting lack of effective demand for industrial products and persisting low rates of increase in output. However, the pill was somewhat sugared by a growth observed in the satisfaction with amounts of demand and increasing confidence of forecasts of demand and output.
The August data presented by Rosstat demonstrated that a trend towards recovery had ceased. According to the estimates published by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Prognostication (CMASTP), in August the output of industrial products declined insignificantly (by 0.2 per cent, adjusted for the seasonal factor) in comparison with the figures registered in July. At the same time, the situation can not be defined as stagnation as yet. Taking into account a significant increase in output registered in July (0.6 per cent), on the whole in July through August the average growth in output made 0.2 per cent a month, similarly to the situation observed over the two preceding quarters.
The year’s index of industrial output was estimated to make from 104.1 per cent to 104.4 per cent optical equipment natural gas, and water Chemical production Prices of producers of manufactured goods Metallurgical production Production of non-metallic mineral products Production of oil products Freight tariffs Extraction of fuel and energy resources Manufacturing production Food production Textile and clothing manufacturing Production of machinery and equipment Production of electrical equipment, electronic and Production of vehicles and transport equipment Production and distribution of electrical power, (104.1 per cent in January through August of 2005 as compared with the figures registered in January through August of 2004).
September failed to bring the long awaited recovery of Russian industry. The results of surveys have demonstrated the persisting lack of effective demand for industrial products and persisting low rates of increase in output.
Amounts of sales of industrial products have not been growing for the fourth month running. Over this period, the balance of changes in demand (growth minus decline) as adjusted for the seasonal factor was in the interval from -2 to +1, what reasonably suggests about the stabilization of amounts of demand for domestic products. In September, responses indicating a decline in sales prevailed in mechanical engineering, ferrous metallurgy, chemistry and petrochemistry.
However, in September the satisfaction with the amounts of demand increased reaching almost the best values registered over the whole period of observation (1992 through 2005), what demonstrated the progress in adaptation of Russian enterprises to the situation formed by this time. The share of answers “normal” increased to 58 per cent in September, whereas in July it made only 44 per cent.
At the moment, only 39 per cent of producers are not satisfied with demand, whereas in June this figure was at 53 per cent. Therefore, on the whole across Russian industries the number of enterprises satisfied with demand for their products has again increased. At the moment, more than 90 per cent of enterprises of the fuel industry and metallurgy consider demand for their products to be normal, while the respective figures for light industry and mechanical engineering make 50 per cent and 45 per cent.
In September, the rates of growth in production did not significantly change in comparison with the figures registered in August and remained at the lowest level observed over the last two years. The correspondence between output and demand was registered at 61 per cent – so many enterprises reported similar dynamics of output and sales of their products. This indicator has deteriorated by several points in comparison with the figures registered in August due to an increase in the share of enterprises, where output grew at the rates outpacing growth in demand. In other words, in September enterprises unreasonably increased their output. This fact resulted in a slight increase in redundant finished stocks. The balance of evaluations of finished stocks increased by 5 points; however, it remained in the traditional band of fluctuations of this indicator. The growth in the redundancy of finished stocks occurred in all industries with the exception of the light and food industries.
The lack of growth in output could affect the availability of credits for industrial enterprises. The share of “normal” availability has declined and made 70 per cent as compared with 74 per cent registered in the 2nd quarter; at the moment 20 per cent of enterprises report about insufficient availability of credits as compared with 18 per cent of such answers registered in the 2nd quarter of 2005. It should be noted that the enterprises reporting insufficient availability of credits make a minority across all Russia's industries. The majority of enterprises (70 per cent) have most frequently used credits for replenishing of working capital. The second most frequent purpose of credits taken by enterprises in 2005 is modernization of production (36 per cent), and the third is expansion of output (24 per cent).
At the moment, 22 per cent of enterprises use credits for organization of sales.
In September, forecasts of demand and output plans of enterprises stopped to be less confident.
Forecasts of demand (as adjusted for the seasonal factors) increased by 9 p. p.; however, they are still far behind the best values registered over the year. A growth in confidence of forecasts has been registered across all industries, the most optimistic expectations have been observed in the light and food industries. Output plans of enterprises improved by 11 points and reached the levels registered in 2004; however, it should be noted that they are still less confident than in early 2005. A decline in the confidence of output plans was registered only in the fuel industry and metallurgy.
On the contrary, price forecasts of enterprises have consistently moderated. In September, these forecasts were registered at a next post-default minimum. In a few next months, an absolute decrease in ex-works prices may be expected in metallurgy and the industry of construction materials. Other industries forecast a slowdown of rates of increase in their prices.
S. V. Tsukhlo Foreign Trade In July 2005, major indicators of the Russia’s foreign trade development reached the record level.
The main cause of quick export growth remains the favorable situation on the world market. The greater purchasing power of the ruble to foreign currencies and growth of revenues in the economy made for considerable increase in import deliveries.
Not all controversial issues could be solved in September at the U.S.-Russia negotiations on Russia’s accession to WTO.
In June 2005 the Russian foreign trade turnover, calculated upon the balance of payment methodology, reached USD 29.9 bn, which exceeded the similar indicator of 2004 by 31,1%.
In July 2005 the volume of Russian exports reached USD 21.5 bn, which is by 8,7% more than in June this year, and by 39,1% greater than in July 2004. Export to far-abroad countries accounted for USD 18.6 bn, i.e. by 44,7% greater than in July 2004, to CIS states – USD 2.9 bn (growth by 11,5%).
In 2005 imports in the RF made USD 10.6 bn, which is by 4,9% higher than in June 2005, and by 28% more than in July 2004. It should be noted that the volume of deliveries from the far-abroad countries reached in July 2005 USD 8.8 bn, increasing by 34,9% as compared to volumes of July 2004, from CIS states – USD 1.8 bn (growth by 2,6%).
In July 2005, the Russia’s foreign trade surplus made USD 10.9 bn, by 51,9% greater than in the previous year, and by 12,7% greater than in the previous month.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Balance Export Import Source: Central Bank of the RF Fig. 1 Major Indices of the Russian Foreign Trade (bn dollars) As before, the high growth rates of the value volume of export are explained by favorable state of affairs of the world market. By an estimate of the Bank of Russia, the world prices, with account of the Russian export structure as aggregated by goods, comprising about 70% of its cost, increased in July 2005, as compared to the previous month, on average by 5,6%. In January-July 2005, compared with the respective period of 2004, the prices were higher on average by 36%.
Rise in oil prices in early July was caused by troubles (because of hurricanes) in the operation of oil production enterprises in the Gulf of Mexico (USA), and also by information on inability of OPEC to satisfy the growing needs of the world economy.
A slight reduction in prices in the second decade of July became after publication of the IEA forecast on possible decrease in the growth rates of the world oil consumer demand in the current year, and primarily – on the part of China. The report also presents the forecast of growth of the world oil Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt consumption in 2006, according to which, the world oil consumption in 2005 will grow by 1.75 mln barrels a day and will make 85.62 mln barrels a day.
In July 2005, against June, the average oil price of “Brent”, “Dubaiskaya” and “Zapadnotekhasskaya” increased by 4,6% - to USD 56.4 a barrel, Urals - by 7,7% - to USD 55.1 a barrel. In January-July 2005, in comparison with the respective period of 2004 the oil prices were higher on average by 44 and 47,5% accordingly In July 2005, against the previous month, the prices of oil products were higher on average by 4% (diesel fuel went up by 2,6%, fuel oil - by 5,5%, gasoline - by 6,8%,). In January-July 2005, in comparison with the respective period of 2004 the prices of oil products were higher on average by 45% (diesel fuel went up by 52%, gasoline - by 29%, fuel oil - by 39%).
An average oil price of Urals for the period of monitoring July-August 2005 made USD 56.77 a barrel. Thus, proceeding from the current formula, the export duty has been established since October 1, 2005 at USD 179.9 per ton. According to the current formulas, the prices for light oil products have been established since October 27 at USD 133.5 per ton, for dark ones - USD 71.9 per ton.
It is to be remembered that since August 2005 the rate of export customs duties of crude oil were established at USD 140 per ton, since August 23 export duties for light oil products were 106,6 per ton, for dark ones - USD 57.4 per ton.
In July 2005, as compared to the previous month, the prices for natural gas in Europe went up by 8,6%, in the U.S. — by 6,1%. In January-July 2005, in comparison with the respective period of 2004, the natural gas in Europe went up by 46%, in the U.S. – by 16%.
In July 2005, vs. the previous month, the world prices for products of the Russian fuel and energy complex went up on average by 7,1%. In January-July 2005, vs. the respective period of 2004, the prices were higher by 45%.
In July 2005, in comparison with the previous month, the ferrous metals went down by 2,5%, while in January-July 2005 vs. the respective period of 2004, the prices for them were higher by 18%.
In July 2005, in comparison with the previous month, the prices for non-ferrous metals went down on average by 1,7%, including for nickel - by 9,8%. The prices for aluminum and copper went up by 2,6% and 2,7%, accordingly. On average, in January-July 2005, vs. the respective period of 2004, the prices for non-ferrous metals were higher by 12% (aluminum went up by 10%, copper — by 22%, nickel — by 14%).
Table Monthly Average World Prices in July of Corresponding Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Oil (Brent), USD/ barrel 20.66 18.25 12.96 18.8 28.4 24.62 25.7 28.25 38.2 56.Natural gas, USD/mln BTU - 2.121 1.983 2.363 4.01 3.15 2.94 5.021 6.034 7.Gasoline, USD/gallon 0.634 0.594 0.423 0.6 0.935 0.732 0.804 0.896 1.306 1.Copper, USD/t 1935.9 2481.7 1754.3 1744.8 1864.2 1541.4 1589.0 1730.3 2813.0 3614.Aluminum, USD/t 1455.4 1563.7 1377.7 1403.5 1565.9 1412.2 1338.4 1434.9 1710.0 1779.Nickel, USD/t 7350 6737.3 4620 5273 8202.0 5956.8 7143.1 8790.6 15038 Source: calculated according to the data of London Metal Exchange (Great Britain, London), International Petroleum Exchange (London) The price index of export of Russian commodities made in January-July 2005 131,9% versus 116% in January-July of the prior year. In parallel with that, in 2005 it is observed a reduction in the growth rates of the volume of exports. While over the 7 months of 2004 the volume index went up by 5,6%, in the respective period of the current year – only by 3,9%.
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