Global Stock Market Indices Movement Changes per Changes since Data as of September 27, 2005 Value month ( % )11 year beginning ( % ) 984,52 12,38% 62,04% RTS ( Russia ) 10456,21 -0,07% -2,55% Dow Jones Industrial Average ( United States) 2116,42 -0,99% -1,66% NASDAQ Composite ( United States ) 1215,66 0,28% 1,13% S&P 500 ( United States ) 5447,30 4,19% 12,38% FTSE 100 ( Great Britain ) 4965,88 3,19% 15,71% DAX-30 ( Germany ) 4546,80 4,25% 17,92% CAC-40 ( France ) 6852,00 6,01% 18,78% Swiss Market ( Switzerland ) 13310,04 8,13% 15,56% Nikkei-225 ( Japan ) 30875,00 12,74% 20,03% Bovespa ( Brazil ) 15801,81 10,29% 21,34% IPC ( Mexico ) 2146,37 1,84% 19,52% IPSA ( Chili ) 2306,50 1,52% 11,42% Straits Times ( Singapore ) 1209,63 13,78% 35,35% Seoul Composite ( South Korea ) 33319,18 11,01% 30,95% ISE National-100 ( Turkey ) 647,89 7,52% 19,49% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index ОАО Slavneft The shareholders of ОАО NGK Slavneft approved a dividend payout as a result of company’s activity within the fist half of 2005 at an extraordinary meeting of shareholders which was held on September 20, 2005. The amount of dividends payable will total 7 654 323 180 rubles or 1,61 rubles per every common share with a par value of 0,1 kopeks. Dividends will be paid until November 18, 2005. The extraordinary meeting of shareholders of Slavneft was held on an absent voting basis. The As compared to the levels of August 29.
The extraordinary meeting of shareholders of Slavneft was held on an absent voting basis. The list of shareholders attended the extraordinary meeting of shareholders was made on the basis of the shareholder register dated as of 5 August 2005.
Foreign Exchange Market.
The participants in the Russian foreign exchange market demonstrated became less active in the beginning of the month after the US dollar lost considerably against the Russian ruble in the very beginning of September 2005. Such situation reflected stabilization of the US dollar exchange rate which stopped losing against the basic world currencies in the world market. The US dollar was supported by a weakened agiotage regarding the damages caused by Hurricane Katrina, which were found to be dramatic but not catastrophic for the United States. A statement of the Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, А. Moscou, in which he gave his voice for further tightening of the monetary policy by increasing the basic interest rate, became another factor that supported the US dollar. Besides, the downfall of world oil prices also encouraged the US dollar exchange rate to gain in the world market.
The USD exchange rate demonstrated a mixed trend in the foreign exchange market in midSeptember. The internal exchange rate reflected an element of uncertainty in the world market where investors were expecting the US Federal Reserve System to take a decision on another increase in the discount rate. On the contrary, the expected statistics on the growing US trade balance deficit restricted the upward trend for the US dollar. Some foreign exchange deficit which occurred upon a large-scale disposal of export earnings and was observed earlier should be noted among the internal factors making the US dollar gain against the Russian ruble.
The US dollar started to gain versus the Russian ruble since mid-September. Post election political uncertainty in Germany resulted in a certain decline in the Euro exchange rate in the world market, which affected automatically the internal RUR exchange rate against both the US dollar and the Euro.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2004-40.39.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 38.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.29.28.27.The USD exchange rate declined by 0.01 rubles ( -0.04% ) to reach 28.57 rubles per US dollar in the period between September 1 and 28. Total volume of trading on USD in the SELT electronic trading system totaled nearly $37.16 bln US dollars with the average daily turnover of $2.18 bln US dollars in the period between September 1 and 23 ( nearly $31.6 bln US dollars with the average daily turnover of $1.57 bln US dollars in August 2005 ). Maximum volume of trading on USD over the roubles 03.08.18.08.02.09.17.09.02.10.17.10.01.11.16.11.01.12.16.12.31.12.15.01.30.01.14.02.01.03.16.03.31.03.15.04.30.04.15.05.30.05.14.06.29.06.14.07.29.07.13.08.28.08.12.09.27.09.foregoing period was recorded at nearly $5.78 bln US dollars on September 23, minimal was $1.bln US dollars on September 21.
Ruble liquidity in the Russian banking sector increased considerably in September as compared to the corresponding figures in August: balances on corresponding accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia averaged nearly 303.68 bln rubles in September against 273.9 bln rubles in August.
The Euro exchange rate dropped by $0.033 ( -2.63% ) up to 1.2016 US dollars per Euro in the world market in the period between September 1 and 28. The similar situation was observed in relation to the EUR/RUR exchange rate. The EUR/RUR exchange rate dropped by 0.58 rubles ( -1.66% ) from 34.88 to 34.29 rubles per Euro in the period between September 1 and 28. Total volume of trading on the Euro in the SELT electronic trading system totaled nearly 299.58 ml EUR with the average daily turnover of 17.62 ml EUR in the period between September 1 and 23 ( about 295.94 ml EUR with the average daily turnover of 14.79 ml EUR within the first three weeks in July 2005 ). In August, these figures exceeded slightly the corresponding parameter in August. Maximum volume of trading on the Euro over the same period totaled at the level of 30.62 ml EUR on September 9, while the minimum was 10.35 ml EUR on September 2.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 18.104.22.168.1.1.USD/EURO 01.08.31.08.30.09.30.10.22.214.171.124.28.01.27.02.29.03.28.04.28.05.27.06.27.07.26.08.25.09.Table 2.
Financial Markets’ Indicators Month May June July August September* monthly inflation 0,8% 0,6% 0,3% -0,1% 0,3% Potential annual inflation on the bases of the cur- 10,03% 7,44% 3,7% -1,19% 3,66% rent month trend The RF Central Bank’s refinance rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Average yield to maturity of OFZ ( as % per year) 7,17% 7,19% 6,9% 6,83% 6,36% by all issues GKO-OFZ market turnover per month ( bln rubles) 24,7 42,3 28,8 65,9 97,yield to maturity of Minfin Bonds at the end of the month ( as % per year ):
5 tranche 5,24% 5,10% 5,1% 4,96% 4,81% 6 tranche 4,33% 4,11% 4,2% 4,13% 4,47% 7 tranche 5,68% 5,51% 5,5% 5,24% 5,09% 8 tranche 4,58% 4,39% 4,5% 4,33% 4,13% yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month ( as % per year ):
2005 3,09% 3,66% – – – 2007 4,46% 4,49% 4,6% 4,55% 4,38% 2010 5,52% 5,38% 5,3% 4,69% 4,47% 2018 5,91% 5,68% 5,8% 5,52% 5,29% 2028 6,40% 6,25% 6,3% 5,96% 5,82% 2030 5,65% 5,48% 5,5% 5,35% 5,21% МБК-MIACR one-day loan rate ( as % per year at 5,71% 7,53% 2,0% 2,67% 1,72% the end of the month ) official RUR/USD exchange rate at the end of the 28,0919 28,6721 28,70 28,54 28,month ( RUR/USD ) official RUR/EUR exchange rate at the end of the 35,1963 34,5241 34,65 34,87 34,month ( RUR/EUR ) incremental growth in official RUR/USD ex- 1,15% 2,07% 0,1% -0,56% 0,07% change rate per month ( % ) incremental growth in official RUR/EUR ex- -2,25% -1,91% 0,4% 0,6% -1,66% change rate per month ( % ) RTS stock market turnover per month ( ml US 203,62 435,69 600 942,8 1 420,dollars by stock included into the list of stocks for the RTS index calculation ) RTS -1 index value at the end of the month 674,44 707,52 780 882,03 984,Changes in the RTS -1 index per month ( % ) 0,42% 4,90% 10% 13,08% 11,6% * Estimate D. Polevoi Investment in the real sector of the economy In the first six months of 2005, the increase in investments in fixed assets made 9.4 per cent as compared with 12.6 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the background of an intensive growth in the amounts of gross national savings, the share of investment in fixed assets made 14.1 per cent of GDP in the first six months of 2005.
Slowing rates of growth in investment in fixed assets has been a major problem of the Russian economy. In the first six months of 2005, the increase in the investment in fixed assets made 9.4 per cent as compared with 12.6 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the background of an intensive growth in the amounts of gross national savings, the share of investment in fixed assets made 14.1 per cent of GDP in the first six months of 2005.
This year, changes in the structure of investments across sources of financing occurred at the background of growing share of borrowing, which made 52.8 per cent as compared with 51.4 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. However, it should be noted that this year by the end of the first half year of 2005 there was registered a decline in the share of banks in the crediting of the investment process to 6.0 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent share observed last year. At the same time, at the background of moderate activities carried out by the banking sector there persisted the trend towards the enhancement of the role played by insurance and investment companies, industrial and trading enterprises, as well as foreign capital in financing of investment activities. The share of borrowings made by Russian organizations increased by 3.7 points in comparison with the figures registered in the first six months of 2004.
Structure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing in the first six months of 2004 and 2005 (without small businesses and parameters of informal activities) 2004 Investment in fixed assets, total 100 Including:
Own funds 48,6 47,Of which:
Profits remaining at the disposal of organizations 17,3 19,Depreciation 24,9 22,Borrowings 51,4 52,Of which:
Bank credits 7,3 6,Including credits of foreign banks 1,1 0,Borrowings form other organizations 6,0 9,Budget resources 16,2 17,including:
Federal budget 4,2 5,Budgets of RF subjects and local budgets 11,2 11,Foreign investment in the total amount of investment in fixed assets 4,5 7,Source: Rosstat In spite of the slowdown of the rates of economic development, interest of foreign investors in the Russian market has not diminished. On the whole, by the end of the first six months of this year, foreign investments accounted for 7.0 per cent of the total amount of investment in fixed assets as compared with 4.5 per cent observed in the respective period of 2004. No doubt that the complicated situation in the business circles and lack of confidence in Russian institutions and protection of ownership rights increases risks encountered by foreign banks in relation to provision of credits. However, at the background of stable growth in revenues generated by export of oil and natural gas, as well as granting of the investment grade ranking to Russia, the maintenance of high rates of investment is seen by the international banking businesses as sufficiently justified in terms of geographical diversification of their operations. By the end of July of 2005, the amount of accumulated foreign capital made US $ 90.8 billion. Although in the first six months of 2005 the Russian economy received by 2.4 per cent less of foreign investment than in the respective period of the preceding year, foreign direct investment increased by 31.0 per cent, what reflected in the growth in their share in the total foreign investments from 18.0 per cent to 27.3 per cent. The trend towards an increase in foreign direct investments reflects the reaction of foreign investors to improving components of the investment climate in Russia and the reforms carried out in the country.
A detailed analysis of investment across types of economic activities appears to be of principal importance. Basing on the data accumulated by the end of the first half year of 2005, the dominating portion of investments in industry was made in extracting industries (17.5 per cent). In comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year, the share of investments made in extraction of fuel and energy resources declined by 2.2 p. p., what was determined by the consequences of a sharp decrease in investment activities observed over 2004. In the beginning of this year, investment in oil extraction grew almost by one third in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2004; however, these developments were not sufficient to overcome the negative consequences of low rates of prospect drilling observed last year and increase the rates of oil extraction. By the end of the first six months of 2005, investments in extraction of fuel and energy resources declined by 6.3 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
In the first six months of 2005, the increase in investment in manufacturing industries made 12.per cent in comparison with the figures observed in the respective period of 2004. The shifts in the structure of investments across processing industries were determined by growing investment activity in metallurgy, chemistry, and production of food products. According to the data presented by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the increase in investment in metallurgy made 36.2 per cent, while investments in textile and clothing manufacturing grew by 44.4 per cent, investments in production of foods increased by 18.7 per cent, and investment in construction and trade grew by 38.per cent and 24.4 per cent respectively.
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