WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 6 | 7 || 9 | 10 |   ...   | 12 |

The oil export in the first half of 2004, as compared to the same period of last year, increased by 4,2%. The oil export ratio in the total volume of Russian export In January-July 2004 was 28,9%, in the export of power resources 52,8%. The export of oil products in the first half of 2004, as compared to the same period of previous year, decreased by 3,7%. The export share in the commodity resource of diesel fuel in the first half of the year was 48,3%, fuel oil 57,6%, motor gasoline 15,9% (for comparison: in 1999, the export share in production of motor gasoline was only 7,2%). As a result of rise in the domestic prices of oil products and real rouble rate, the import of oil products has been increased considerably (2,5 times compared with the first half of 2003). However, the import ratio in oil products still remains rather low (in relation to motor gasoline, in January-June, it reached only 0,8%). In comparison with previous year, the growth rates of gas export increased (from 2,5% in the first half of 2003 to 4,5% in the first half of this year).

Table Export of Oil, Oil products and Natural Gas from Russia, % to the same period of previous year 2001 2002 2003 first half year first half year first half year first half year Oil, total 109,2 114,3 111,4 104,Including:

to countries other than CIS 107,2 106,8 111,4 105,To CIS countries 125,2 164,3 111,1 98,Oil products, total 101,5 114,3 106,9 96,Including:

to countries other than CIS 103,5 115,1 106,2 94,To CIS countries 67,4 95,4 125,5 137,Gas, total 87,0 104,0 102,5 104,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

Table Forecast of World Prices of Oil for 2004-2005, dollar/barrel.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 IV qu. (forecast) (forecast) (forecast) Average price of oil imported into U.S.* 27.72 22.01 23.69 27.74 38.16 35.58 35.*Acquisition cost of oil purchased from refineries.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration.

100 Oil Gas (right scale ) 0 Source: calculated according to the data of Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig.1. Average Producers Prices of Oil and Gas (in US dollars) in 1992-2004, dollar/tonne, dollar/thou. cub. m.

As analysis of the situation in the world market shows, the continuation of high level of world oil prices may be expected in the hear future. According to the base variant of the latest (September 2004) forecast of the U.S. Department of Energy, the world oil price, determined as average price of oil imported into the U.S., will be rather high, and will average, in the 4th quarter of 2004, $38.2 per barrel (Table 5). In 2005, according to the forecast of U.S. Department of Energy, an average oil price will make $35.6 per barrel, in so doing, gradual decrease in the world oil prices (to $34.3 per barrel by the end of the year) will be observed during the year.

Gasoline Fuel ol Source: calculated according to the data of Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig.2. Average Producers Prices of Motor Gasoline and Fuel Oil (in US dollars) in 1992-2004, dollar/tonne Bobylev Yu.N.

Foreign Trade In July of 2004, the key indicators of development of the Russian foreign trade again reached record highs in this year. The growth in exports was still facilitated by the favorable price situation as concerns staple export goods and an increase in the volumes of export of goods. The growth in imports may be primarily explained by increasing consumer demand supported by the growth in the real household incomes.

In September, the Russian Federation signed the protocol on the completion of negotiations with the Republic of Korea and China concerning access of goods on the market in the framework of Russias accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Russian government continued its efforts aimed at the formation of trade policy complying to the rules and regulations set by WTO.

In July of 2004, the Russias foreign trade turnover (according to the balance of trade methodology) increased by 26.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of and made US $ 22.8 billion. In July of 2004, the amount of export of goods grew by 27.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2003 (up to US $ 14.5 billion), while imports grew by 23.9 per cent and made US $ 8.3 billion. The active balance of trade made US $ 6.billion. At the same time, the amount of exports in countries outside NIS increased by 24.5 per cent up to US $ 11.9 billion. The amount of imports from countries outside NIS made US $ 6.4 billion in July of 2004, thus increasing by 22.8 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in July of 2003.

-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Balance Export Import Source: RF CB Fig. 1. Main indicators of Russias foreign trade (in US $ billion) The growth in exports was still facilitated by the favorable price situation on the world markets. Oil prices were at a high level in July. Thus, the average Urals oil price made US $ 35.4 per barrel (a 9.per cent growth in comparison with the figures registered in June of 2004), while the average Brent oil price was at US $ 38.2 per barrel (a growth by 8.5 per cent).

The major factors behind the continuing increase in oil prices observed in July were the growing instability in the Middle East (in oil extracting regions, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia). Besides, in spite of official statements that OPEC raised its daily oil extraction quotas in July and August (by 2.5 million barrels a day), no additional supply of oil was registered on world markets. It was expected that after reaching the historic highs the quotations will inevitably go down, however, it did not happen and expectations of shortages of oil on the market increased again, what was the factor facilitating the new price surge.

Over the period under observation, the oil market experienced a decline in Norwegian exports (Norway is the third largest oil exporter in the world). The amount of oil supplies from Norway declined by 10 per cent.

Economic growth in the USA, Europe, and Asia resulted in a record world demand for oil products.

Because of the continuing growth in world prices, the Russian Federation has increased the export custom duties on oil and oil products, since October 1, 2004, this duty shall make US $ 87.9 per metric ton. The rate of the export duty on oil set on August 1, 2004, made US $ 69.9 per metric ton. In September, the rate of export duty on oil products made US $ 45.4 per metric ton, what corresponds to per cent of the marginal export duty on crude oil..

As on April 1, 2004, the rate of the export oil duty made US $ 37.5 per metric ton. Therefore, over the first six months of 2004, the duty increased more than two times. It should be reminded that the rate of the export duty should be revised once in two months proceeding from the two month monitoring of world oil prices.

In July, there increased world prices of major nonferrous metals. Thus, the average price of nickel made US $ 15038 per metric ton (a 12.9 per cent increase in comparison with July figures). The major factor behind the rise in nickel prices was the reduction of reserves of this metal at the London Exchange and growing demand for stainless steel on the part of China. The average prices of aluminum made US $ 1710 per metric ton (a 2.1 per cent growth in comparison with June prices), while the price of copper made US $ 2813 per metric ton (a 5.4 per cent growth).

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jul.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Oct.

Jan.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Apr.

Table The average monthly world prices in July of the respective year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Oil (Brent), USD / 20,66 18,25 12,96 18,8 28,4 24,62 25,7 28,25 38,metric ton Natural gas, USD / - 2,121 1,983 2,363 4,01 3,15 2,94 5,021 6,thous. c. m.

Gasoline, USD / 0,634 0,594 0,423 0,6 0,935 0,732 0,804 0,896 1,metric ton Copper, USD / metric 1935,9 2481,7 1754,3 1744,8 1864,2 1541,4 1589,0 1730,3 2813,ton Aluminum, USD / 1455,4 1563,7 1377,7 1403,5 1565,9 1412,2 1338,4 1434,9 1710,metric ton Nickel, USD / metric 7350 6737,3 4620 5273 8202,0 5956,8 7143,1 8790,6 15038,ton Source: calculated in accordance to the data presented by London Metal Exchange (UK), International Oil Exchange (London) The growth in imports in the Russian Federation was determined by the continuing Ruble appreciation, as well as high dynamics of consumer demand, which was supported by the growing real household incomes. In January through July of 2004, these incomes increased by 9.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year (the growth in June made 10.per cent).

In July of 2004, the amounts of Russia trade vis--vis CIS member countries made US $ 4.43 billion, exports grew by 43.7 per cent (US $ 2.63 billion) and imports increased by 27.9 per cent (US $ 1.80 billion) in comparison with the figures observed in July of 2003.

This September, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the draft agreement with the Government of the Republic of Belarus as concerns the principles of collection of indirect taxes pertaining to export and import of goods, rendering of services, and conduct of works. The draft envisages the setting of the zero rate VAT and exception of excise taxes in the case the fact of export is confirmed by respective documents. In the case of import, indirect taxes should be collected by the importing country.

Besides, another resolution of the RF Government abolished export duties on a number of goods imported from Russia by the countries being the members of the Customs Union (Belorussia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Tadzhikistan) since October 7, 2004. Tin and zirconium ores, oxides of nickel and copper, manganese, bismuth, nickel alloys, pulp, paper, and cardboard, as well as products of light industry, medical tools and sea foods.

At the end of September, in Moscow there was held the congress of member countries of the Eurasian economic community. The congress was aimed to attract investments in the economies of the EvrAzES member countries and development of mutual trade. Representatives of Russia, Belorussia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzia, and Tadzhikistan also elaborated joint documents concerning the issues of single customs tariffs and licensing of the export of goods and services..

This September, the Russian Federation signed the protocol on the completion of negotiations with the Republic of Korea and China concerning access of goods on the market in the framework of Russias accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although 146 countries are members of WTO, exactly the agreements with China, EU, and USA are the key arrangements. An important victory of the Russian diplomacy was the signing of a protocol with the EU in May. It seemed that after concluding agreements with 2 out of 3 major participants, Russia has a short road yet to go before the accession to WTO. However, at the moment the US party criticizes Russian trade policy declaring that Russia increases trade barriers and state support of agriculture, as well as stating that the Russian system of veterinary and fitosanitary certification is too complicated, what checks the world trade.

However, the Russian government continued its efforts aimed at the formation of trade policy complying to the rules and regulations set by WTO. At the meeting of the Interdepartmental Commissions on Protective Measures in Foreign Trade held on September 23, 2004, there was taken a number of important decisions. Thus, in the framework of the policy aimed at the reduction of export duties on the goods with high shares of added value, the Commission recommended to abolish export duties on newspaper paper. In 2003, there were exported 1.175 million metric tons of such paper at the average price US $ 330 per metric ton. Proceeding from these figures, the potential economic effect of the abolishment of the respective export duty will make US $ 19.4 million a year. The producers should use this amount to modernize their equipment and increase the competitive power of Russian paper products.

Protecting the interests of Russian producers, the Commission took the decision to increase the rates of import duties on bleachers, which are produced in Russia in sufficient quantities, from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, and to reduce the import duty on metal fittings for furniture from 15 per cent to 5 per cent.

At the same time, the Commission did not support a proposal about the increase in the rates of import duties on roasted coffee, and agricultural harvesters, as resulting in a worsening of the situation on the Russian consumer market. There was also taken the decision to unify import duties on packed palm oil at the same level as all other vegetable oils (15 per cent), however, these duties should not be below Euro 0.12 per kilogram.

In accordance with federal law No. 165 FZ of December 8, 2003, On special protective, antidumping, and countervailing measures as concerns import of goods and basing on the results of review of the application submitted by the Association of illumination engineering Rossiyski Svet on behalf of Russian producers, the Ministry of Economic Development took the decision to start an investigation with respect to the increasing import of electric bulbs and the respective serious damages for this industry of the Russian economy.

In the period from 2001 to 2003, the import of light bulbs has significantly increased: for instance, the import of light bulb of general purpose increased 1.8 times, the share of imported light bulbs of general purpose in the total amount of consumption of these goods on the Russian market increased from 14.8 per cent in 2001 to 25.0 per cent in 2003.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 6 | 7 || 9 | 10 |   ...   | 12 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .