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US $ mil. In % of the total 2001 2002 2003 2004 2001 2002 2003 Industry 2487 3245 4326 10250 37,2 38,8 34,2 54,Transport and communications 607 350 741 337 9,1 4,2 5,9 1,Trade and public catering 2426 3596 5686 6113 36,3 43,0 44,9 32,Commercial activities relating to 403 533 1072 924 6,0 6,4 8,5 4,market servicing Finance, credit, insurance, pensions 99 41 112 468 1,5 0,5 0,9 2,Other sectors 662 603 725 891 9,9 7,1 5,6 4,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

Trade and public catering have lost their leading positions in terms of preferences of foreign investors, however, these sectors remain a rather attractive sphere of investment of capital, since these sec Portfolio investment 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q tors demonstrate high rate of turnover of capital and higher profits (from 15 per cent to 40 per cent).

Foreign investment in this sphere of the economy increased by 7.5 per cent in the first six months of 2004.

Foreign investors have invested in the sphere of transport and communications less, in the first six months of 2004 the amount of investments was 2.2 times below the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

By the end of the first six months of 2004, the share of the fuel and energy complex in the total foreign investment in industry was the largest (US $ 5.35 billion), what was 5 times above the respective indicator registered in the first six months of 2003. Over this period, investment in forestry and wood working increased 4 times (up to US $ 658 million), investment in mechanical engineering and metal working grew 1.5 times (up to US $ 409 million), while investment in metallurgy also increased and made US $ 2.76 billion. At the same time, investment in food industry declined by 24.1 per cent and made US $ 366 million.

A significant increase of investment in the fuel and energy complex resulted in significant changes in the structure of foreign investment in industry.

Structure of investment in industry in the first six months of 2004 (the data for the first six months of 2003 are presented in brackets).

Structure of investment in industry in the first six months of (the data for the first six months of 2003 are presented in brackets) Forestry and wood Other industries ;

working 6.4 % (3.8 %) 3.9 % (5.9 %) 3,6% (10,2%) Mechanical engineering and metal working 4.0 % (6.4 %) Chemistry, petrochemistry 4.0 % (6.4 %) Fuel and energy Metallurgy 26.9 % complex 52.2 % (43.7 %) (24.6 %) Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

The trend towards a growth in the specific weight of other investment and decline in the share of foreign direct investment is characteristic of both the structure of the total amount of foreign investment and the structure of foreign investment in industry.

The share of foreign direct investment made in the first six months of 2004 in industry made 73.per cent (US $ 2.5 billion) of the total amount of direct investment in the Russian economy (46.0 per cent, or US $ 1.17 billion in the first six months of 2003). At the same time, the rates of growth in foreign direct investment in industry significantly exceeded the respective indicator pertaining to total foreign direct investment in the Russian economy. While the former indicator increased more than times, the growth in the latter is evaluated to make 35.3 per cent.

The major part of foreign direct investment (67.1 per cent of the total direct investment) flowed in fuel industry (45 per cent, or US $ 1544 million), forestry complex (11 per cent, or US $ 378 million), as well as trade and public catering (11 per cent or US $ 379 million). In the first six months of 2003, foreign direct investment in these industries were evaluated to be at 25.2 per cent, 3.6 per cent, and 16.4 per cent respectively.

Over the same period, other investment in industry made 49.8 per cent of the total amount of other investment in the Russian industry (31.1 per cent in the first six months of 2003). The share of fuel industry in the total amount of other investment made 24.5 per cent (4.1 per cent in the first six months of 2003).

In the first six months of 2004, the major investing countries in the Russian industry were Luxemburg (US $ 2.79 billion) and the Netherlands (US $ 1.7 billion). These countries increased their investment 5.5 times and 4.5 times respectively in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, while in the first six months of 2003 foreign investors from Luxemburg made 97.6 per cent of their investment in industry in nonferrous metallurgy, this year 99 per cent of the respective investment were made in fuel industry. Businesspersons from the Netherlands also paid more attention to fuel industry by making 86.1 per cent of their investment in this branch (50.3 per cent in the first six months of 2003).

Table Structure of foreign investment in industry in the first six months of 2004.

US $ mil. In % of the figures registered in Direct Portfolio Other Direct Portfolio Other Industry 2504 61 7685 2,1 times 2,9 times 2,4 times Including:

Fuel industry 1544 1 3782 2,4 times 5,0 . 9,1 times Food industry 95 1 270 -36,7% 2,5 . -7,8% No investment in Wood working, pulp and paper industry the 1st half year of 378 3 277 4,1 times 2003 3,9 times Metallurgy 61 3,3 2693 39% -34,0% 46,1% Chemistry and petrochemistry 67 17 288 63% 170,0 . 50,8% Mechanical engineering and metal working 93 11 305 12% 11,0 . 58,9% Other industries 266 24,7 70 2,3 times 73% -48,5% Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

The major part of foreign direct investment (67.1 per cent of the total direct investment) flowed in fuel industry (45 per cent, or US $ 1544 million), forestry complex (11 per cent, or US $ 378 million), as well as trade and public catering (11 per cent or US $ 379 million). In the first six months of 2003, foreign direct investment in these industries were evaluated to be at 25.2 per cent, 3.6 per cent, and 16.4 per cent respectively.

Over the same period, other investment in industry made 49.8 per cent of the total amount of other investment in the Russian industry (31.1 per cent in the first six months of 2003). The share of fuel industry in the total amount of other investment made 24.5 per cent (4.1 per cent in the first six months of 2003).

In the first six months of 2004, the major investing countries in the Russian industry were Luxemburg (US $ 2.79 billion) and the Netherlands (US $ 1.7 billion). These countries increased their investment 5.5 times and 4.5 times respectively in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, while in the first six months of 2003 foreign investors from Luxemburg made 97.6 per cent of their investment in industry in nonferrous metallurgy, this year 99 per cent of the respective investment were made in fuel industry. Businesspersons from the Netherlands also paid more attention to fuel industry by making 86.1 per cent of their investment in this branch (50.3 per cent in the first six months of 2003).

On the whole, the list of major countries exporting their capitals in the Russian economy in the first six months of 2004 includes Germany, UK, USA, the Netherlands, and France, although the geographical structure of investment in the Russian economy made in the first six months of 2004 has somewhat changed.

Geographical structure of foreign investment in Russias economy in the first half 2004 (the data on the 1st half 2003 is given in brackets) USA Germany 4,3% Other countries;

6,4% (3,6%) (24,8%) 21,7% (29,8%) UK 15,3% (16,2%) France; 7,5% (3,2%) Cyprus; 12,8% (12,4%) Luxembourg; 21,6% Netherlands; 10,4% (4,5%) (5,5%) Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

This year, Luxemburg was the leader in terms of invested capital for the first time, the respective investments are evaluated to make US $ 4.1 billion, what was 7.2 times above the level observed in the first six months of 2003. At the same time, investment from the USA increased 2.7 times and made US $ 1.2 billion, from the Netherlands 2.9 times up to US $ 2 billion, from France 3.5 times up to US $ 1.4 billion. Metallurgy and mechanical engineering were most attractive for US investors (66 per cent and 9.9 per cent of the total US investment). Investors from France and UK preferred trade and public catering, the amount of respective investment made US $ 1.1 billion, or 78.9 per cent for France and 40 per cent for UK. At the same time, 38.1 per cent of investment from UK flowed in metallurgy.

In the first six months of 2004, the activity of German investors somewhat declined, the German investment in the Russian economy decreased by 73.8 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the first six months of 2003, and made US $ 823 million. Of this amount, 39.5 per cent (US $ million) were invested in industry. In the first half year of 2003, 15.3 per cent (US $ 480 million) of the German investment were made in industry.

At the same time, similarly to the first six moths of 2003, the share of the 10 largest investors made more than 80 per cent of the total amount of investment accumulated by July 1.

Table Structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries.

Accumulated by 01.07.2004, US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2004, % (*) Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 6,3 -9,4 87,8 73,USA 5630 3893 77 1660 (1,3) (-11,8) (108,1) (49,7) 0,9 -3,5 -5,7 2,Germany 10294 2453 361 7480 (-3,5) (4,7) (-6,2) (-5,8) -4,6 -9,7 0,0 -4,France 4555 299 0,1 4256 (70,6) (7,6) (0,0) (77,9) -6,0 -53,6 0,0 25,UK 6784 1311 107 5366 (15,2) (-45,5) (-0,9) (59,1) 14,5 0,8 -5,1 46,Cyprus 9254 5076 519 3659 (40,1) (14,5) (75,9) (94,7) 2,5 times 2,5 times 8,6 times 2,4 times The Netherlands 8810 6934 43 1833 (3 times) (3 times) (7,2 times) (3 times) 16,3 -16,7 -15,9 47,Other countries 20768 6912 290,9 13565 (48,3) (8,6) (-19,2) (86,2) 15,9 2,9 -2,2 28,Total 66095 26878 1398 37819 (36,7) (19,1) (17,4) (53,8) * Changes in comparison to 1.07.2003 are in brackets Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

The top ten countries exporting capital in Russia account for 82.3 per cent (78.8 per cent in the first six months of 2003) of accumulated foreign direct investment, 83.3 per cent (76.2 per cent) and 88.per cent (87.9 per cent) of portfolio and other investment respectively.

E. M. Ilyukhina The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends According to the Regulations governing the elaboration and presentation of the data on the part of the Federal State Statistics Service, there was completed the first assessment of GDP in the first six months of 2004 and update of the indicators registered in the 1st quarter. The amount of GDP in the first six months of 2004 made Rub. 7549.0 billion and increased by 7.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The intensive growth in industry and trade, as well as branches of the market infrastructure (communications and trade) had the determining impact on the structure of the produced GDP.

The calculation of forecast values of macroeconomic indicators until end-2004, carried out by IET, demonstrates that the amount of GDP will increase by 7.2 per cent by the end of the year, while investment in fixed assets and exports will be at 111.5 per cent and 121.4 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year.

According to the Regulations governing the elaboration and presentation of the data on the part of the Federal State Statistics Service, there was completed the first assessment of GDP in the first six months of 2004 and update of the indicators registered in the 1st quarter. The amount of GDP in the first six months of 2004 made Rub. 7549.0 billion and increased by 7.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

The intensive growth in industry and trade, as well as branches of the market infrastructure (communications and trade) had the determining impact on the structure of the produced GDP.

Table Indices of GDP growth across sectors of the economy in the first six months of through 2004, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year 2003 1st Q 2nd Q 1st half year 1st Q 2nd Q 1st half year Gross Domestic Product 107,5 107,9 107,7 107,5 107,4 107, including:

Production of goods 106,9 108,0 107,5 107,6 107,7 107, Of which:

Industry 106,5 107,9 107,2 107,5 107,1 107, Construction 113,6 114,7 114,2 113,8 114,6 114, Agriculture 101,1 98,9 99,9 98,6 98,8 98, Production of services 108,0 107,8 107,9 107,1 107,1 107, Market services 109,0 108,8 108,9 107,9 107,9 107, Of which:

Transport 106,4 106,5 106,4 106,8 106,2 106, Communications 117,8 122,2 120,2 121,5 123,6 122, Trade 112,8 111,2 112,0 108,2 109,2 108, Non-market services 102,4 102,3 102,4 102,2 102,5 102,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics The major factors behind structural shifts in the use of GDP remain the positive dynamics of external and internal demand. In the favorable external business situation, the growth in the Russian economy registered in the first six months of 2004 was by more than half determined by the outpacing growth in exports. In January through August of 2004, the increase in the amount of exports made 125.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

The level of concentration of domestic exports in a narrow group of raw materials has significantly increased over the recent years and was accompanied by growing dependence of the rates of growth in Russian exports on price fluctuations on the world markets of raw materials. The domination of fuels and raw materials in the Russian exports determined the very low level of diversification of foreign trade ties. The specific weight of machinery and equipment in the total amount of export remained at per cent to 9 per cent, while the share of fuel and energy resources grew up to 54.4 per cent, and the share of metals increased up to 14.8 per cent.

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