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VI`03 VII`03 VIII`03 IX`03 X`03 XI`03 XII`03 I`04 II`04 III`04 IV`04 V`04 VI`Revenues Profit tax. 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Income tax. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Unified social tax. 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% Taxes on goods and services. License and registration dues. 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 10.2% 8.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.4% VAT 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 7.9% 6.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.3% 6.5% Excise taxes 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% Taxes on foreign trade and foreign economic operations. 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% Other taxes. 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.7% Tax revenues. 18.7% 18.4% 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 18.0% 19.4% 16.1% 15.9% 16.4% 16.6% 16.2% 17.2% Non-tax revenues. 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% Total revenues. 20.4% 20.0% 19.5% 19.4% 19.3% 19.4% 20.4% 19.6% 19.7% 20.4% 20.6% 20.6% 21.6% Expenditures Public administration. 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% National defense. 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% International activity. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Judicial power. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Law enforcement and safety measures. 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Fundamental scientific research and technological development promotion. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Public services rendered to national economy, including : 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% Social services. 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% National debt service 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% Other expenditures 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 5.2% 5.8% 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% Expenditures and loans less repaid loans 17.4% 17.3% 17.1% 16.8% 16.7% 17.7% 10.8% 14.4% 15.8% 16.8% 16.3% 15.9% 15.8% Surplus 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 9.6% 5.2% 3.8% 3.6% 4.3% 4.7% 5.8% Domestic financing 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% 0.5% -8.6% -3.1% -1.2% -1.3% -2.4% -3.1% -3.2% External financing -3.0% -2.9% -2.7% -2.5% -2.3% -2.2% -1.0% -2.1% -2.6% -2.3% -1.9% -1.6% -1.7% Total financing -3.0% -2.7% -2.5% -2.6% -2.6% -1.7% -9.6% -5.2% -3.8% -3.6% -4.3% -4.7% -4.9% in % of the GDP; ** the unified social tax is included into tax revenues.

The budget revenues increased by 1.2 percentage points in 2004 as compared to the comparable period between January and July of 2003, while the expenditures were reduced by 1.6 percentage points of the GDP, which entailed an increase in budgetary surplus by 2.8 percentage points of the GDP. In the same way as before, the VAT revenues 30.3% of the total tax revenues remain responsible for The figures are subject to revision due to evaluative nature of the data on GDP.

the basic share of federal tax revenues, which is virtually by 3.4 percentage points less than the comparable figure in 2003.

According to the preliminary information, cash execution of the federal budget revenues in the period between January and August of 2004 accounted for 20.6% of the GDP, which exceeds the figures of the comparable period of the previous year by 0.6 percentage points of the GDP. At the same time, cash execution of the budgetary expenditures accounted for 15.9% of the GDP ( 17.3% of the GDP in the period between January and August of 2003). Thus, according to the preliminary data, the budgetary surplus accounted for 4.6% of the GDP after the total of seven-month period of the current year.

According to the preliminary estimation of the RF Ministry of Finance, in the period between January and August of 2004, by performed financing2 the federal budget was executed at the level of 17.1% of the GDP by expenditure ( Table 2 ), while this indicator was 18.6% of the GDP over the comparable period in 2003. The federal budget revenues in the period between January and August of 2004 grew up by 0.6 percentage points of the GDP and accounted for 20.6% of the GDP as compared to the corresponding months of 2003. Thus, the budgetary surplus by performed financing in the period between January and July of 2004 grew up by 2.1 percentage points of the GDP and accounted for 3.4% of the GDP as compared to the corresponding indicator between January and August of 2003.

Table 2.

Execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation ( in % of the GDP, by performed financing ).

VII03 VIII`03 IX`03 X`03 XI`03 XII`03 I`04 II`04 III`04 IV04 V04 VI04 VIITotal revenues 20.0% 19.5% 19.4% 19.3% 19.5% 20.4% 19.6% 19.7% 20.4% 20.6% 20.6% 20.7% 20.6% Public administration 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% Judicial power 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 3.9% 2.9% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% International activity 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% National defense 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Law enforcement and safety measures 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Fundamental scientific research and technological development promotion 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Public services rendered to national economy 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% Social services 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% National debt service 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% Other expenditures 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 5.6% 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% Total expenditures 18.6% 18.2% 17.9% 18.1% 17.8% 15.2% 19.7% 18.0% 19.7% 18.8% 17.1% 17.4% 17.1% Budgetary surplus (+) / deficit (-) 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 5.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% According to the Ministry of Taxation of the Russian Federation, the federal budget revenues amounted to nearly 122.5 bln rubles ( without regard for the unified social tax ) in August of 2004.

The real tax revenues accounted for 246.0% as compared to the figure of January 1999, while the comparable indicator accounted for 242.6% in August of 2003 and 246.5% in 2002 ( Table 3 ).

Budget execution by performed financing is equal to the amount of funds transferred by the Federal Treasury to the accounts of budget funds recipients. Cash execution of the budget is equal to the amount of funds consumed by budget funds recipients from their accounts.

Table 3.

Real tax revenues to the federal budget according to the RF Ministry of Taxation ( in % of the data obtained in January, 1999 )3.

2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218.7 187.1 234.8 277.8 239.6 218.0 284.4 246.5 254.8 299.7 241.0 250.% % % % % % % % % % % % 2003* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 230.0 229.2 265.5 248.7 265.6 231.0 247.% % % 280.4% 233.2% 240.0% 260.4% 242.6% % % % % 2004* I II III IV V VI VII 266.5% 204.4% 238.0% 261.4% 241.0% 243.6% 288.9% * Without regard for the unified social tax.

135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% Profit tax VAT 55% 45% 35% Fig. 1. Real tax arrears to the federal budget ( in % to July 1999 ) The movement in real basic taxes arrears since January 2000 is presented in Figure 1. VAT arrears to the federal budget increased by 7.8 bln rubles in March 2004 and amounted to 264.1 bln rubles as of April 1, 2004. Respectively, profit tax arrears increased by 2.9 bln rubles and amounted to nearly 30.8 bln rubles. All in all, the downward trend of tax arrears, which was observed from the beginning of 2001 till the second half of 2003, gave way to a stabilized level of both accrued profit tax and VAT arrears.

Comparison with January 1999 has been selected to complete the data presented. January 1999 is not a representative data in terms of tax revenues.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Table 4.

Execution of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation ( in % of the GDP ).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 28.7% 23.6% 24.3% 26.5% 26.6% 25.9% 26.4% 25.9% 25.2% 25.4% 25.4% 25.5% Revenues 32.9% 31.3% 31.4% 33.6% 33.6% 32.7% 33.3% 32.5% 31.7% 32.0% 32.1% 32.1% Expendi- 18.3% tures 23.7% 26.0% 28.4% 28.4% 28.8% 29.1% 28.9% 28.4% 29.3% 29.7% 31.1% Budgetary 14.6% 7.7% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% deficit/ surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25.6% 24.4% 25.6% 27.4% 27.1% 26.0% 26.1% 25.7% 25.0% 25.0% 25.1% 25.2% Revenues 32.0% 30.3% 31.5% 33.4% 33.6% 32.2% 32.2% 31.6% 30.9% 30.8% 30.7% 31.1% Expendi25.3% 27.7% 28.8% 28.8% 28.6% 28.7% 28.5% 28.2% 27.8% 27.9% 29.7% tures 20.7% Budgetary deficit/ 11.3% 5.0% 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% surplus I II III IV V VI VII Taxes* 25.6% 20.6% 21.8% 27.4% 27.4% 26.6% 27.2% Revenues 30.6% 28.2% 29.8% 32.9% 32.9% 32.5% 33.1% Expenditures 18.5% 22.8% 25.4% 27.3% 26.9% 27.0% 27.0% Budgetary deficit/ 12.1% 5.4% 4.4% 5.6% 6.0% 5.5% 6.1% surplus * Without regard for the unified social tax The consolidated budget revenues in the period between January and July of 2004 accounted for 33.1% of the GDP, of which tax revenues ( without regard for the unified social tax ) are represented by 27,2% of the GDP ( Table 4 ). The consolidated budget expenditures were reduced as compared to the period between January and July, 2003 by 1.7 percentage points of the GDP and accounted for 27.0% of the GDP. The consolidated budget surplus accounted for 6.1% of the GDP as of August 1, 2004, which exceeds the level of the comparable period in 2003 by 2.5 percentage points of the GDP.

Basic Developments in Public Sector.

According to the statement of the RF Minister of Finance, in 2005 the RF Ministry of Finance is ready to allocate 5 -10 bln rubles from the Reserve Fund which totals 30 bln rubles, as part of the aid to the regions during transition to monetization of the benefits. In this regard, from 2005 the RF Ministry of Finance will cease to extend non-interest loans, and the regions will have to enter the capital market when the need in financial resources arises. At the same time, according to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance, the regional budgets will be balanced in general in 2005, including adjustment of the aid allocated from the financial aid fund to the regions, the co-financing fund and a number of other funds.

The RF Ministry of Finance is against indexation of salaries of the state-financed employees in 2004, as well as additional indexation of the military pay in 2005, since this move may create problems for poorly financed regions. According to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance, a 1,5 increase in military pay requires additional 200 bln rubles with the need to allocate additional funds to increase military pensions due to increase in the military pay. In this case, the funds of the Federal Budget Draft 2005 which are to be allocated in order to increase the labor compensation fund to the military personnel ( in terms of replacement of in-kind benefits with monetary benefits ), amount to bln rubles.

According to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance, the volume of revenues to the stabilization fund in 2004 is predicted to reach 468,4 bln rubles, including receipt of additional revenues from the oil production tax and the oil export duty with oil price being over $20 per barrel, the revenues will amount to 380,4 bln rubles. In addition, 87,9 bln rubles will be generated from carrying over the balances of budgetary funds to the end of 2004. Given the initial volume of the fund to the amount of bln rubles as of February 1, 2004, its total volume in the current year is estimated 574,4 bln rubles with allowance for the revenues to be generated in the course of the year. According to the Federal Budget Draft, the contributions to the stabilization fund in 2005 are expected to reach 387,7 bln rubles, with 242,6 bln rubles of the estimated volume of its usage in the next year, including the amount of 74,7 bln rubles which is planned to be allocated to cover the RF Pension Funds budget deficit, and 167,9 bln rubles to repay the foreign debt of the Russian Federation. Thus, as of January 1, 2006, the stabilization funds funds volume is estimated to the amount of 719,5 bln rubles.

Within September, the RF Government plans to consider the issue on investment of the stabilization funds funds. It was previously reported that provisions were made for investment of stabilization funds funds in securities of foreign countries rated AAA.

S. Ponomarenko Monetary Policy In August of the current year, the consumer price index ( CPI ) accounted for 0.4%, thus exceeding markedly its levels recorded in the same month of the previous years and. The gold and foreign exchange reserves increased insignificantly, while the monetary base continued to decline for the second successive month. The stabilization fund was mainly responsible for sterilization of liquidity after the first seven months.

According to the Statistical Service of the Russian Federation, the consumer price index in August of the current year accounted for 0.4% as compared to the previous month ( refer to Fig. 1 ) ( the highest value for August since 2001 ) and 7.6% as compared to December of the previous year ( 0.4% and 8.5% respectively in the previous year ). The highest increase in prices within the group of paid services for the population was 1% in August and 13.6% of accumulative total since the beginning of the current year ( 0.7% and 18.7% in 2003 ). During the last eight months of the current year, the highest increase ( by 21.4% ) was noted in the rates of housing and public utilities, which is slightly lower than in the comparable period of the previous year ( 25.1% ).

Prices of food products increased by 0.1% in August, while they were noted declining by 0.4% in the previous year. It was noted in August that prices of the majority of food products increased. It should be noted that substantial decline in prices of fruits and vegetables was mainly responsible for the CPI drop in August of the previous year. In the current year, price reduction has been found to be almost three-time less. In addition, no seasonal decline of prices of granulated sugar occurred.

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