However, a significant difference is registered as concerns the largest absolute strength of the mobilization reserve (MR) having served the 6 months term. It should be noted that this difference becomes Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень Весна Осень apparent immediately after 2007 and should continue for a long period. The intensification of transition to the contract based military service also positively affects the efficient strength of the mobilization reserve (MR).
An economic analysis of expenditures for the realization of the reviewed variants is not of less importance. These expenditures were calculated across a large number of components; however, the graphs in Fig. 6 present only aggregate expenditures.
В1-2ш В1-2 В2-2г В2-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fig. 6. Expenditures for maintenance of privates and noncommissioned officers across variants (Rub. billion a year) As concerns these expenditures, there should be noted the following. Naturally, the speeded up variant requires higher expenditures in the period before 2008, however, it permits to reduce future expenditures after 2009.
The difference between expenditures in the case of transition to draft for 6 months or 1 year is insignificant for the state budget. First, this relates to the fact that the significantly higher share of expenditures is allocated for maintenance of contracted servicemen as opposed to drafted servicemen.
Second, in the framework of the expenditures borne by the state in order to finance drafted servicemen, the insignificant difference described above concerns transportation expenditures for delivery of draftees to their respective places of service. Other expenditure items are practically similar.
1. The objective to simultaneously increase the strength of the military organization and consolidate the capacity to rebuff terrorism on the part of the civil society originated by the more severe terrorist attacks may be attained in the case the reform of the system of completion of the RF military organization may be speeded up.
2. from the point of view of military efficiency of regular troops, the more intensive transition to the contract based service is useful, since it may increase this efficiency already at present time, and not in a far future. At the same time, it would be possible to avoid significant “dips” in the total strength.
Simultaneously, there are no significant difference between the transition to the 6 months and 1 year term of service as concerns the military efficiency. From the point of view of the combat readiness of the mobilization resource, the transition to the 6 months term of service is better, since a larger number of citizens could have military training, although only primary. In the case the present situation, as concerns international terrorism threats, in the country and in the world is taken into account, the fact that more citizens would have primary military and antiterrorist training would be a useful development.
3. The difference in the expenditures borne by the state as concerns maintenance of servicemen according to different variants of the term of military service (6 months or 1 year) is insignificant. More rapid transition to the contract based military service will require an increase in the spending in the period till 2008, however, additional expenditures are below several per cent of the planned expenditures for defense and national security, what seems rather reasonable. At the same time, this acceleration of the reform may help to reduce future expenditures.
4. From the point of view of the public support of the variants under observation, the advantages of transition to the 6 months term of military service are undeniable. This term of service will facilitate the prevention of the criminal payoffs as concerns draft. The same may be said about the lost (reduced) revenues of the society arising due to the fact that young people have to serve in the military organization. It may be added that the transition to the 6 months term of service will not negatively affect the system of higher education.
N. Kardashevsky Scenary Macroeconomic Forecast for 2004 and This section presents a scenary forecast of basic macroeconomic indicators ( GDP, CPI, tax revenues, export, import, RUR/USD exchange rate, gold and foreign exchange reserves, real effective exchange rate of the Ruble, retail turnover, unemployment rate, real value of cash incomes ) for and 2005, which was performed by using a system of structural econometric equations.
The equations were evaluated on the basis of quarterly data over the period between the 1st quarter of 1996 and the 2nd quarter of 2004 inclusively. In some cases a model was evaluated only for the 1st quarter of 2000. The data were based on the official information received from the RF Statistical Service, the Bank of Russia and the International Monetary Fund (International Financial Statistics).
The equation depicting a short-term movement of macroeconomic indicators includes the variables and their lags which have a significant and economically logical impact on the interpretable variable.
The equations were also added with dummy variables, thus taking into account quarterly seasonal factor and structural changes. Moving average members were used for the purpose of eliminating autocorrelation of excesses.
Predicted values of macroeconomic indicators were calculated on the basis of the scripted scenarios of exogenous variables movement: Brent oil price, capital investment, М2 and USD/EUR exchange rate.
TABLE Exogenous Variables Scenarios for 2004 and 2004 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario USD/EUR exchange rate 1,21 1,18 1,24 1,Urals oil price (US dollars per barrel) 31,2 28 31 M2 growth rate, % 35 28 35 Capital investment growth rate, % 11,5 9,8 12,0 8,Exogenous variables movement over the two latest quarters of 2004 were selected on the basis of assessments of average annual values of the similar variables in 2004, presented in the forecasts of the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trading (RF MEDT) and the RF Central Bank. Thus, according to the estimates of the Central Bank ( «Basic Trends of the Unified Public Monetary Policy for 2005 » ), М2 growth rates in 2004 may amount to 32 to 37%. According to the estimates of the RF MEDT, in 2004, the average annual Urals oil price included into the reference conditions of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation till 2007 is expected to amount to nearly 31,2 US dollars per barrel. According to the estimates of the RF MEDT, in 2004, the USD/EUR average annual exchange rate and annual growth rates of capital investments должны составить 1,US dollars for 1 Euro and 11,5%, respectively.
Our macro forecast for 2005 was calculated on the basis of three basic scenarios of the USD/EUR exchange rate, oil prices, М2 and capital investments growth. Scenario 1 was drawn according to the reference conditions and forecast output of the RF MEDT for 2005 («socio-economic development forecast in the Russian Federation till 2007 »): the USD/EUR average annual exchange rate is 1,21, Urals oil price is 28 US dollars per barrel, М2 growth rate is 28%, capital investment growth rate by year end is 9,8%. Scenario 2 is optimistic and predicts oil prices to remain at the 2004 level (31 US dollars per barrel). In addition, according to Scenario 2, capital investment growth rate is predicted to be at the level of 12%, USD/EUR average annual exchange rate is 1,24, money supply growth rate is 35%. Scenario 3 is pessimistic and predicts a gradual decline in Urals oil prices down to 22 US dollars per barrel by the end of 2005. In addition, Scenario 3 predicts strengthening of the US dollar against the Euro as compared to the previous year ( average annual exchange rate in 2005 is 1,18 US dollars for 1 Euro against 1,21 in 2004 ), decline in investment growth rate down to 8.5% annually and М2 growth rate is 20% in 2005.
TABLE Forecast for 2004 and 2004 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 RF MEDT Scenario Real GDP growth rate, % 7.2 5.9 6.9 4.0 6.GDP ( trillion rubles ) 16 221 19 280 19 482 18 459 18 CPI growth rate, % 11.0 10.1 10.4 8.3 8.Tax revenues to the RF consolidated budget ( % of the GDP ) 25.2 25.9 26.6 25.Gold and foreign exchange reserves ( bln US dollars ). 107 120 131 Rate of strengthening of real effective exchange rate of the ruble, % 7.9 6.4 7.8 5.9 4.Rate of strengthening of real exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar, % 8.3 4.6 7.9 0.5 4.Nominal exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar. 29.2 30.2 29.0 30.5 30.Export ( bln US dollars ) 165 165 174 158 163.Импорт ( bln US dollars ) 90 103 107 99 104.Retail turnover growth rate, % 8.1 8.8 9.6 7.1 8.ИПП growth rate ( in % against previous quarter ) 7.0 5.5 6.5 3.6 5.Share of unemployed in total number of the gainfully occupied population, % 7.8 7.2 7.1 7.4 8.Growth rates of real value of cash incomes, %. 8.8 8.1 8.7 6.8 According to the macroeconomic forecast output ( refer to Table 2 ), GDP growth rate in 2004 will amount to 7.2%. According to the optimistic scenario ( Scenario 2 ), in 2005 growth rates of the GDP will decrease down to 6.9% and 4% under Scenario 3, correspondingly. In 2004, nominal value of GDP volume will amount to nearly 16,2 trillion rubles. In 2005, this figure will reach 19,28 trillion rubles according to Scenario 1, 19,48 trillion rubles according to Scenario 2 and 18,46 trillion rubles according to Scenario 3.
In the case of 35% increase in money supply in 2004 and 7.2% of the predicted GDP growth rate, inflation in 2004 will amount to nearly 11%. Next year inflation rates will reduced down to 8.to10.4% depending on the predicted scenary changes in money supply.
The presented assessment of tax revenues volume to the consolidated budget does not include the unified social tax revenues. The tax revenues forecast was calculated with due consideration of actual and planned (by the RF Government) changes in the tax law in 2004 and 2005 as compared to the previous years.13 In particular, taken into consideration were a decrease in the value-added tax rate by 2 percentage points, sales tax abatement, as well as indexation of excises and changes in the base rate Since the applied indicator of the revenues volumes to the RF consolidated budget doesn’t include the revenues of the unified social tax, no consideration was taken of the planned decline of the unified social tax from 2005, which is expected to reduce tax burden of enterprises by 280 bln rubles, according to the estimates of the RF Government.
of the mineral tax from 2004. At the same time, on the basis of the predicted scenary oil prices, we took into account the consequences of tax burden growth for the oil industry from 2005. According to a new scale of export duties, the duty will be 0% with oil prices being up to $15 USD per barrel; with oil price of 15 to 20 US dollars per barrel, the export duty will be up to 35% of the difference between actual oil price and $15 USD; with oil price of 20 to $25 USD per barrel the export duty will not exceed $12,78 plus 45% of the difference between actual oil price and $20; with oil price over $25 USD per barrel the export duty will not account for more than $29,2 USD and 65% of the difference between actual oil price and $25. At the same time, the Mineral Tax equation included the base tax rate raised from 347 rubles up to 400 rubles per ton from 2005, as well as non-taxable threshold of oil price from $8 to $9 USD. In addition, the Mineral Tax equation included the RUR/USD exchange rate revised from 31,5 rubles for 1 US dollar up to 29 rubles for 1 US dollar. In addition, calculation of tax revenues for 2005 took into account the introduction of the «country of destination» principle on the value-added tax with regard to hydrocarbons and other goods exported to Belarus as well as the respective growth of the base rate of oil production tax and the base rate of flammable natural gas production tax, which according to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance will lead to reduction of tax revenues. Account was also taken of an average reduction by 32% of export duties rates in all groups, except for the fuel and energy group, that also will lead to reduction of tax revenues, according to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance.
The corresponding quantitative changes in the amount of tax revenues were calculated on the basis of tax revenues of the previous year with consideration of taxation base growth, presented oil prices scenarios and forecast of the RUR/USD exchange rate. Thus, as a result of changes in the tax legislation, tax revenues of the RF consolidated budget in 2004 will be reduced to 132 bln rubles. According to Scenario 1, tax revenues in 2005 will increase by 65 bln rubles; according to Scenario 2 ( with the highest oil prices ), tax revenues will increase by 137 bln rubles; according to Scenario 3, revenues of the consolidated budget will barely grow by 16 bln rubles. As a result of adjustment of the predicted values of tax revenues by the amount of discretionary changes, the predicted volume of tax revenues of the RF consolidated budget in 2004 will amount to nearly 25.2% of the GDP; in 2005, 25.9% of the GDP according to Scenario 1; 26.6% of the GDP according to Scenario 2; and 25.3% of the GDP according to Scenario 3.
According to the forecast output, by the end of 2004 the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves will reach 107 bln US dollars.14 With the lowest oil prices in 2005 (Scenario 3), gold and foreign exchange reserves will increase by 8 bln US dollars, while if oil prices in 2005 remain at the level of 2004 ( Scenario 2 ), the increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2005 will amount to nearly 24 bln US dollars.
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