11,5% 11,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% Тран ш4 Транш5 Транш6 Транш 07.05.14.05.17.05.22.05.27.05.30.05.06.06.11.06.17.06.20.06.25.06.28.06.03.07.08.07.10.07.15.07.18.07.23.07.26.07.31.07.05.08.08.08.13.08.16.08.21.08.FIGURE 2/ Yield to Maturity of Russian Eurobonds with Maturities in 2003, 2007 and 2008 as of September 11,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% USD-2003 USD-2007 USD-In September the annualized yield of securities in the market for domestic debt was 14.8 percent. Based on preliminary data, the estimated turnover is somewhat larger than in August.
The Market for Corporate Securities Two different factors have influenced the Russian stock market in September. On the one hand, high oil prices "supported" the prices for securities of the top Russian companies; on the other hand, lack of stability in the largest world economies resulted in low investor interest in the Russian stock. On the whole, the results of the historically negative month of September have been quite good; however, protracting the reforms of basic sectors of the economy may most negatively affect the economy on the whole and stock market in particular.
The Stock Market From 02 to 26 September the RTS index grew by 14.04 points (4.23 percent). The index reached its maximum closing value of 346.94 points on two occasions, 11 and 26 September; the highest intra-day value of 347.09 points was reached on 26 September. Thus, it is possible to distinguish two growth periods in the dynamics of the stock indicator: from 02 till 11 September (+4.22 percent) and from 19 till 26 September (+6.93 percent). The decline from 11 till 19 September was 6.48 percent. The lowest index value of 324.points was marked on 19 September. The trade volume grew US$ 40.4 million (+20.56 percent) from last month's results, reaching US$ 236.9 million. The average daily turnover was US$ 12.47 million.
In August the stocks of Mosenergo (18.88 percent) and Tatneft (18.35 percent) were leading with a breakaway gap among the most liquid securities. To a certain extent, the growth in the price of Mosenergo securities has been brought about by an increase of the rating forecast by S&P and from the conclusion of a loan agreement with the EBRD in late August as well as by a wish of a number of shareholders to move their assets from RAO UES to the most liquid securities of regional energy companies. Prices for the securities of the following companies changed to a smaller extent: Yukos (6.48 percent), the Savings Bank (3.92 percent), Sibneft (3.84 percent) and Surgutneftegas (3.64 percent). A reduction in prices has been observed for the securities of RAO UES (-2.41 percent), Rostelecom (-5.41 percent), MMC Norilsk Nickel (-5.91 percent) and Gazprom (-13.6 percent). The negative dynamics of RAO UES and Gazprom securities are a result of protracted reforms in the electroenergetics and gas sectors that belong to the most important sectors of the Russian industry. The lowering in the MMC Norilsk Nickel quotations may result from IAS reports on a reduction by almost 25 percent in the plant's net profit in 2001 as compared with 2000 and from a pessimistic forecast for the mining sector by Morgan Stanley.
07.05.15.05.21.05.27.05.31.05.10.06.17.06.21.06.27.06.03.07.09.07.16.07.22.07.26.07.01.08.07.08.13.08.19.08.23.08.29.08.04.09.10.09.16.09.20.09.FIGURE Объем торгов ($) Индекс РТС Figure 4. Dynamics of Russian Blue Chip Quotations from 30 August till 26 September Динамика котировок российских голубых фишек с 30 августа 2002 г. по 26 сентября 2002 г.
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Изменение цены (%) In September ordinary shares of RAO UES took the top position in the trade volume in the total turnover at RTS with 29.41 percent as compared with 20.51 percent in the previous month. The proportion of Yukos' ordinary shares reached 16.13 percent (11.93 percent); LUKoil ordinary shares fell to 15.07 percent, almost a half of the previous month's value (28.38 percent); Surgutneftegas fell to 10.68 percent (from 15.09 percent);
Tatneft grew to 7.83 percent (3.63 percent). The total proportion of five most liquid shares in the overall RTS turnover somewhat diminished, reaching 79.12 percent (August: 81.36 percent).
In the period from 01 till 26 September 2002 the volume of trade in Gazprom shares conducted via RTS terminals was US$ 57.7 million (ca. 81 million shares); a total of 10.1 thousand deals with Gazprom securities were concluded.
пунктов млн. долларов США 1 авг 29 авг 15 авг 26 сен 24 окт 12 сен 21 дек 22 ноя 23 янв 19 апр 20 фев 22 мар 22 май 18 июл 20 июн As at 26 September the list of the Russian top five companies by capitalization remained the same as compared with August (RTS data): Yukos: US$ 20.8 billion; Gazprom: US$ 17.4 billion; LUKoil: US$ 13.billion; Surgutneftegas: US$ 12.8 billion; Sibneft: US$ 9.3 billion.
The Market for Term Contracts In the period from 02 till 26 September the turnover in the term market amounted to RUR 5.97 billion (48.5 thousand deals, 1.97 million contracts). Futures contracts accounted for RUR 5.9 billion (47.5 thousand deals, 1.94 million contracts) in this amount.
September futures contracts totaling ca. RUR 194 million were exercised on 16 September. The highest exercise amount ever in the FORTS market was registered for a futures contract for the rate of LUKoil shares: RUR 74.98 million.
On 19 September 2002 the FORTS futures market celebrated its first opening anniversary. During this period the turnover in that market segment has exceeded RUR 70 billion, market participants concluded ca.
420 thousand deals and the monthly increase in trade volume was about 30 percent.
New records were held in the FORTS market in September: on 25 September 3,871 deals with futures and options contracts were concluded (the previous high of 3,305 deals, marked on 10 July 2002, was exceeded by 14.5 percent); the trade volume has also reached a historic high of RUR 446.8 million (150,contracts).
Factors Affecting the Pricing In September news from leading exchanges of the world affected Russian asset quotations negatively.
Agitation in the U.S. market has created mixed expectations in relation to the prospects of the future growth of the largest economy in the world. In his address to the U.S. Congress Alan Greenspan stated the following factors impeding economic growth: a low investment level, terrorist attacks in last September and a weak stock market. On 23 September current values of the U.S. leading index calculated by the Conference Board were published. The index declined 0.2 percent, and the decline was marked in 7 components out of 10. The negative dynamics of the index have been observed for three consecutive months, which is evidence of alarming trends in the U.S. economic development.
FIGURE 220% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 200% Индекс РТС 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% The situation in Asian stock markets is also far from optimistic. An increase in the number of problem loans in Japan poses a threat of bankruptcy for many large credit institutions. At the Tokyo exchange NIKKEI-225 fell to 9,129.07 points on 6 September, hitting a 19-year low.
On the whole, in September prices in the oil market remained over US$ 28/ barrel. The main pricing factors in the "black gold" markets were the expectations of an U.S. military action against Iraq and a decision by the OPEC on oil quotas. On 6 September prices for Brent grew at the IPE to the highest level.
since 18 September 2001, exceeding US$ 28/ barrel. As at 6 September the average world oil price as expressed through the OPEC basket passed another pshychological barrier and reached US$ 27.52/ barrel.
Thus, only US$ 0.48 are left to the upper limit of the price range established by OPEC to regulate the situation in the world oil market. On 19 September in their meeting in Osaka OPEC members decided to leave the oil production quotas unchanged for Quarter 4 so as to keep the price of crude oil at a high level.
On 23 September the price for Brent rose over the level of US$ 29/ barrel and the price of the OPEC basket over US$ 28.28/ barrel, hitting the highest mark since 17 September 2001. If this value stays over US$ 28/ barrel for 20 consecutive business days, OPEC will have to hold an extraordinary summit in order to decide on a change of export quotas.
Figure 6. Price for Brent Crude Oil (NYMEX) Цена на сырую нефть Brent, США (NYMEX) On 13 September the State Duma of the Russian Federation passed amendments to the Federal Law "On the Securities Market" at the third reading. The purpose of the new version of the Law is to make the Russian market more transparent. We would like to note the introduction of a notion of price manipulation, which allows to protect the market from such schemes. The Law also introduces more onerous requirements to the contents of the prospectus and the issuer's quarterly report.
Standard & Poors upgraded the rating forecast for six Russian banks, which reflects an improvement of the economic situation in Russia.
Corporate News OAO Rostelecom On 4 September, following the introduction by SEC of more stringent requirements to the reliability of financial accounts of companies whose shares are listed in the U.S., Rostelecom announced it would revise its financial accounts for 2001 due to the situation with its former auditor Arthur Andersen. As a result of a second audit carried out by Ernst & Young, a number of financial indicators of the company's operations were reduced. However, the telecommunication company must have gained from this step since it has demonstrated the business community a responsible approach to the issuer's financial accounts.
OAO Uralsviazinform Standard & Poors assigned Uralsviazinform a Level 6.0 Corporate Governance Score. This value is lower than the rating of MTS that rates highest among Russian companies with a CGS value of 7.4, but higher than North-West Telecom with 5.0.
долларов за баррель...0.3.9.08.02.08..08..
.OAO Surgutnefetgas In the course of the first eight months of 2002 Surgutneftegas has produced 32.15 million tons of oil which is up 11.7 percent as compared with the respective value from last year. The volume of gas production reached 8.7 billion cubic meters. Drilling volume increased to almost 2 million meters (13 percent greater than in the respective period of 2001), including exploration drilling, which increased 9 percent, amounting to 191 thousand meters. 613 new wells have been put into operation.
OAO Surgutneftegas has obtained a license to develop and produce the deposits in the North LabatYugansk site. In accordance with the law in force, the company has been issued this license upon exploration work on risk conditions without any tender.
OAO MMC Norilsk Nickel In 2001 the net profits of MMC Norilsk Nickel calculated in accordance with the IAS fell to RUR 36.billion (in 2000: RUR 48.7 billion).
The company's revenues were RUR 132 billion and the Group's net profits less profits from financing activities were RUR 14.1 billion. The decrease in profits and revenues in 2001 has been brought about primarily by a decrease in world metal prices. It should be noted that in 2001 nickel production grew 2.percent; copper, 14.8 percent; cobalt, 12.7 percent, and metals of the platinum group, 0.8 percent. The share of nickel in total sales was 32 percent, copper, 14 percent and precious metals, 46 percent in 2001. The internal market accounted for 4 percent of nickel sales and 8 percent of copper sales last year.
OAO Oil Company Yukos US GAAP net profits of the company in Quarter 1, 2002, reached US$ 462 million, which is US$ million lower as compared to the respective period of 2001. The company's US GAAP proceeds and other operational expenses in the stated period slightly exceeded US$ 2 billion as opposed to US$ 2.412 billion in the respective period of 2001. Yukos' operational expenses in Quarter 1 of 2002 were up 10.8 percent from 2001 and reached US$ 319 million. According to the company's press-service, this results from higher expenses on electric power and labor costs as well as from greater production and processing scope.
Table Dynamics of Foreign Stock Indexes As of 24 September 2002 Value Change During Change Since the the Month (%) Beginning of the Year 335.12 0.67% 30.52% RTS (Russia) 7683.13 -11.32% -24.21% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 1182.17 -10.09% -40.51% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 819.29 -10.56% -29.43% S&P 500 (USA) 3671.1 -13.16% -29.97% FTSE 100 (UK) 2873.21 -22.62% -44.32% DAX-30 (Germany) 2742.81 -18.52% -40.69% CAC-40 (France) 4566.4 -12.70% -28.85% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 9321.64 -3.09% -11.58% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 9148 -11.89% -32.63% Bovespa (Brazil) 5705.67 -8.22% -11.77% IPC (Mexico) 78.86 -8.74% -27.72% IPSA (Chile) 1377.07 -7.49% -15.31% Strait Times (Singapore) 672.28 -8.71% -3.09% Seoul Composite (Korea) 9072.02 -4.98% -34.18% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 272.254 -8.91% -13.63% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index Foreign Exchange Market In September no strong fluctuations were observed in the Russian foreign exchange market: a change of the first digit after the comma from five to six was the only occurrence.
On 31 August 2002 the official exchange rate was 31. 5673 RUR / US$ and on 28 September 2002 the rate was 31.6358 RUR / US$. Thus, the growth was 0.216 percent. According to market expectations, in early October the rate will pass the 31.7 RUR / US$ mark. Based on preliminary estimates, the trade volume in the SELT was RUR 150 billion. It should be noted that this value will lose its analytical meaning upon introduction on 01 December 2002 of a Decree of the Bank of Russia establishing a new procedure for the mandatory sales of a part of foreign currency export revenues.
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