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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES September 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 © Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, ИД № 02079 от 19 июня 2000 г.

© © © 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget.................................................................................3 Monetary Policy.........................................................................................................6 Financial Markets.......................................................................................................8 Debt burden on the Federal budget in 2003.............................................................16 Investment in the Real Sector...................................................................................17 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends.......................................................................19 IET Business Survey: Industry.................................................................................21 Oil and Natural Gas Sector.......................................................................................22 2 The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, the federal budget in January through August of 2002 was executed as follows: revenues – Rb. 1388.6 billion, expenditures (actual financing) – Rb. 1264.6 billion.

Table 1 The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP, in comparable prices).

VI`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,5% 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,2% 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,7% 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% Total- taxes and charges 2,4% 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% Non- tax revenues 3,9% 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% Revenues, total 2,2% 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% Expenditure 16,4% 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% Public administration 1,3% 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% National defense 17,7% 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% International activities Judicial power 0,4% 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 2,7% 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% Fundamental research 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Services provided for the national economy 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 1,4% 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% Servicing of public debt 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 1,0% 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% Expenditure, total 2,1% 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,9% 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% Budget deficit (-) 14,2% 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% Domestic financing 3,5% 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% Other taxes, duties and payments -1,1% -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% Total- taxes and charges -2,4% -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% Non- tax revenues -3,5% -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% * в % ВВП; ** ЕСН включен в налоговые доходы Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing).

I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`Total 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% International activities 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security activities 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% Services provided for the national economy 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% Social services 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% Servicing of public debt 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% Other expenditure 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% Total expenditure 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% Профицит (+) / дефицит (-) 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% The data on the execution of the federal budget up to August of 2002 are presented in Table 11 and 2. As of August 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal budget accounted for 20.9 % of GDP, including tax revenues Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

at 19.5 %, while expenditures made 17.2 % of GDP (19.1 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding2), including non-interest ones – 14.9 % of GDP (16.5 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 3.7 % of GDP (1.4 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through July of 2002 somewhat increased as compared with the figures registered in January through June. The tax revenues in January through June of 2002 made 15.9 % of GDP (without the single social tax).

The expenditures for the servicing of the public debt in January through July of 2002 made 2.6 % of GDP.

As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures in the first six months of 2002 made 19.1 % of GDP.

As of September l, according to the preliminary estimates, the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) grew up by Rb. 20.2 bln. since the beginning of the year.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999) 3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 240,9% 218,0% 283,4% The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 14. In August, no significant changes were registered.

2 The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

3 It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

4 Since 2001 the form of the MTC’s presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

Fig. 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to June of 1999) 200% 180% НДС Налог на прибыль 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ Х XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% The level of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in January through July of 2002 somewhat increased in comparison to the first six-month indicators. The surplus of the consolidated budget was by 0.2 % of GDP below the level registered in the preceding year.

Май Май Май Март Март Март Июль Июль Июль Июль Июнь Июнь Июнь Июнь Август Август Август Август Январь Январь Январь Апрель Апрель Апрель Ноябрь Ноябрь Ноябрь Декабрь Декабрь Декабрь Октябрь Октябрь Октябрь Февраль Февраль Февраль Сентябрь Сентябрь Сентябрь The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the table5. The estimate was revised as compared to the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

Table 5.

Всего Всего налоговых Всего Всего Всего Всего налоговых поступлений в поступлений поступлений поступлений поступлений поступлений в федеральный налога на налога на подоходного НДС консолидирова бюджет РФ (без прибыль в прибыль в налога в нный бюджет ЕСН) консолидирован федеральный консолидирован РФ (без ЕСН) ный бюджет РФ бюджет РФ ный бюджет РФ ARIMA Август 26,5% 15,9% 4,9% 1,7% 3,1% 6,9% Сентябрь 26,4% 15,7% 5,0% 1,7% 3,0% 6,7% Октябрь 25,7% 15,6% 4,7% 1,6% 3,0% 6,6% Ноябрь 24,9% 15,5% 4,6% 1,6% 2,9% 6,4% REM Август 26,2% 15,6% 5,0% 1,8% 3,2% 6,9% Сентябрь 25,3% 15,2% 4,8% 1,7% 3,1% 6,7% Октябрь 24,2% 14,9% 4,6% 1,7% 3,0% 6,5% Ноябрь 24,2% 14,7% 4,6% 1,7% 3,0% 6,5% S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy According to the State Committee for Statistics of the RF, in August the consumer price index grew 0.percent. In analyzing the commodity structure, it is important to note the continuing seasonal decline in prices for fruit and vegetables: the prices were down 10.2 percent. Prices for vegetables proper reduced by 17.3 percent on average. Service prices increased 2.5 percent.

Prices for housing and communal services continue to grow substantially: the September increase amounts to 4.1 percent, or up 50.1 percent from July 2001 and up 36.6 percent from December 2001. Prices for nonfoods were up 0.7 percent.

During the first eight months of 2002 inflation rate in Russia (measured by the CPI) was 9.9 percent (13.percent in the respective period of 2001). Inflation will remain at a minimum level in September; the consumer prices are expected to grow 0.1 to 0.2 percent. This year control over money circulation has been stricter: in the course of the first eight months the money supply has grown 13.1 percent as compared to 19.percent in the respective period of 2001.

For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

FIGURE 1. Consumer Price Index in 1,1% 1,0% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% -0,1% -0,2% FIGURE 2. Dynamics of the Monetary Base and Gold and Currency Reserves in 850 46,840 45,830 45,44,44,43,43,42,42,41,41,40,40,39,39,38,38,37,37,670 36,660 36,Денежная база (млрд. руб.) Золотовалютные резервы (млрд. $) In September 2002 the gold and foreign currency reserves grew to a record level, reaching US$ 45.billion at 20 September 2002. On the other hand, in the period from 16 August 2002 till 06 September the reserves were diminishing. Presumably, this is related to considerable repayments of the foreign debt: the Minfin had to repay US$ 1,680.6 million in August and 1,426.5 million in September.

Within the framework of its policies aimed at increasing the importance of interest rates, the Bank of Russia has introduced a new instrument that would serve as a means of monetary regulation. A new deal type - a currency swap - has been added to the existing system of credit institution refinancing on 26 September 2002.

In the course of a currency swap the Bank of Russia is going to purchase US Dollars for Russian Roubles on conditions "today" at the official US$ - RUR rate (base rate) and thereafter sell the US Dollars on conditions "tomorrow". Basically, this means overnight lending to commercial banks against collateral in the form of foreign currency.

D. Levchenko % в неделю 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.14-20.01.13.8-19.8.28.01-3.02.31.12.01-6.1.10.9.02-16.9.млрд. рублей млрд. долларов 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.14-20.01.13.8-19.8.28.01-3.02.31.12.01-6.1.10.9.02-16.9.Financial Markets The Market for Government Securities In September 2002 the market of the Russian foreign debt saw a continuation of the trend towards a slight decrease in yields that was observed in August. In the meantime, no positive signals for investors can be observed in the global markets, so it would be heedless to forecast that this trend would hold. A candidate of left-wing forces Da Silva is continuing to gain popularity, which results in further decline of the Real and increase in state bonds. Argentina is on the brink of declaring a default on its debts to international credit institutions.

FIGURE 1. Yield to Maturity of Minfin Bonds in May to September 2002.

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