accurately. Considering all the surveys, the S. Tsoukhlo forecasts on changes in pricing would prove to be correct in 65% of cases on average. Between The oil and gas sector This year, the oil and gas sector maintained main of new wells into operation – by 30.3%. The positive trends in its development. Between proportional weight of idle wells in the operational January to August 2001 the overall oil output made stock fell from 23.3% as of August 1, 2000, to up 107.4% vs. its respective period of the prior 21.3% as of August 1, 2001. The intensity of oil year, while the volume of primary oil processing refining remained roughly at the level noted last accounted for 103.2%. The production of year – 70.5%, while there was some growth in the petroleum derivatives showed a substantial growth, production of non-ethylated and high-octane too (see Table 1). During the period in question the gasoline: their shares in the overall output of volume of operational oil drilling grew by 15.5%, gasoline reached 97.8% and 44.6%, respectively.
prospecting drilling – by 30.7%, and the placement TABLE 1. PRODUCTION OF OIL, PETROLEUM DERIVATIVES AND NATURAL GAS, AS % TO THE RESPECTIVE PERIOD OF THE PRIOR YEAR 1998 1999 2000 January-August Oil 99,0 100,3 105,9 107,Gas condensate 105,0 104,7 103,8 106,Primary oil processing 92,5 102,9 102,7 103,Gasoline 95,7 102,2 103,6 103,Diesel fuel 95,5 104,2 104,9 102,Black oil 89,0 94,8 98,3 102,Natural gas, bln. cub.m. 103,8 99,7 98,5 97,Oil gas, bln. cub.m. 99,1 103,2 102,5 101,Source: Goskomstat RF This year, the domestic oil prices in USD substantially over recent months. However the equivalent stabilized at the level of USD 55-56/t., prices for gas and black oil still remain while the prices for gasoline and black oil slid substantially lower than those in the pre-crisis level notably against their maximum value noted in late (Table 2, Fig.1) 2000, while the gas prices have climbed up TABLE 2. THE DOMESTIC PRICES FOR OIL, PETROLEUM DERIVATIVES AND NATURAL GAS IN USD EQUIVALENT (AS ENTERPRISES’ AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES, USD/T.) 1997 1998. 1999 2000 2001 July December December December December Oil 63,1 16,4 37,0 54,9 55,Gasoline 169,6 63,4 171,9 199,3 170,Diesel fuel 170,0 52,9 125,0 185,0 184,Black oil 73,8 22,0 46,1 79,7 52,Gas, USD/tcm 6,6 2,2 2,2 3,1 4,Source: calculated on the basis of the data of Goskomstat Between January to June 2001 Russian oil exports In contrast to the period between 1999 to 2000, grew by 9.2% compared with their respective with their characteristic feature being a significant period of the prior year, while the export of decrease in the import of petroleum derivatives, petroleum derivatives demonstrated a 1.5% this year demonstrated a growth in the import of growth. In the Ist half 2001, the proportion of gasoline and diesel fuel. At the same time the export in the commodity stock of diesel fuel proportion of imports in the overall stock of oil accounted for 50.4%, black oil- 19.1%, and products remains fairly low (0.6% by gasoline and gasoline- 13.7%. The growth in physical volume of 0.3% - by diesel fuel).
the exports allowed some compensation for the The current financial state of the national oil sector slight fall in world oil prices compared with the is characterized by the maintenance of the oil prior year. In the first half 2001, Russia’s oil companies’ high level of export proceeds and exports in value equivalent accounted for 105.4% profit and a further decrease in the level of their compared with their respective period of the prior credit liabilities. By late June the oil sector’s year (Fig.2), while there was a notable fall in gas outstanding debts to the budgets of all levels in exports (at 13% compared with the first half of the USD equivalent fell to the value of USD 0.23 bln.
prior year) which can be attributed chiefly to a being minimal over recent years. (Table 3).
considerable drop in Russian oil supplies to the CIS countries (at 31.5%).
TABLE 3. THE FINANCIAL INDICES OF THE OIL SECTOR BETWEEN 1997 TO 2001, AS USD BLN.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Ist half Proceeds from export of oil and 21,09 13,96 18,82 34,89 16,petroleum derivatives Profit (balance financial result) 3,52 0,60 6,32 10,42 4,Outstanding credit liability (as of the 6,79 2,41 1,61 1,35 1,end of the period) Including to the budget 2,53 0,66 0,43 0,27 0,Source: calculated on the basis of the data of Goskomstat of RF The growth in output of and investment in the international expert institutions forecast a notable national oil sector noted over 2000 to 2001can be downfall in the world oil prices: according to the attributed to the high level of world oil prices and basic scenario of the US Department of Energy, in the growth in domestic demand. According to the 2005 they should make up roughly USD 20.83/b.
basic scenario designed by the US Department of (given that the high price margin variant should Energy published in early September, the world oil make up USD 26.04/b/, while the lower one- USD price calculated as an average price for the US oil 15.10/b. Such a forecast is complemented by close import should account for USD 24.66/barrel in price estimations of the International Energy 2002, or roughly should remain unchanged. The Agency (USD 19.83/b.) and Standard & Poor’s Economic Intelligence Unit produced the Platt’s (19.47) analogous report, too.
The latest developments in the US, however, have At the same time, as long as the time period introduced a great deal of uncertainty in the following 2002 is concerned, the leading aforementioned estimates. At the 117th Session of OPEC held in late September the nation members However under present conditions one cannot have confirmed their intention to retain the oil exclude that the US would effectively press the prices within the earlier established price corridor OPEC nations to retain a higher level of oil output of USD 22 to 28/b. Considering the fact that OPEC and, consequently, to ensure lower world oil has been rather successful in maintaining the noted prices. In addition, a long-lasting maintenance of price margins, one should expect that should the high prices for oil entails a growth in output in Organization retain its current oil price policy, the other oil-producing countries that do not hold oil prices should not leave the set price corridor, at membership in OPEC, which may lead to OPEC least in the short run, and even if they leave that, it changing its price guidelines and shifting of the set should happen just occasionally. price corridor margins towards smaller prices.
FIG.С The enterprises’ w holesale oil and gas prices in USD equivalent betw een 1992 through 2001 (as USD/t.; USD/tcm) 70 Нефть Газ (правая шкала) 0 FIG.Export of oil and petroleum derivatives in natural and value equivalents between 1997 through 2001, as mln. t., USD mln.) 45 0 Mln.t (left scale) USD mln. (right scale) Yu. Bobylev янв янв янв янв янв янв янв янв янв янв июл июл июл июл июл июл июл июл июл июл сен-сен-сен-сен-янв-ноя-янв-ноя-янв-ноя-янв-ноя-янв-мар-май-мар-май-мар-май-мар-май-мар-май-июл-июл-июл-июл-Russian Agrifood Sector in 6 months In the first half of 2001 growth in the Russian stabilizes. As a result the share of household plots agricultural production continued. In January-July in the gross agricultural output decreases.
its index exceeded 106% (in 1999 the annual Food industry continues to grow by somewhat over growth rate amounted to 4% while in 2000 - to 7% for the third year round. Trends in production 7%). The major contributor to this growth was of selected food products change (Table 4). The crop production that in July (after the harvesting production of sugar and vegetable oils fell after began) was up 14%. Favourable weather being record high in 2000. This drop can be a conditions have surely been an important but not response to overproduction witnessing the still the single factor thereof. The food production persisting extreme reaction of agrifood producers index in 6 months 2001 equalled 107.2% (107.1% to market fluctuations. Besides, the drop is due to in 2000).
smaller areas planted in sunflower and sugar beets.
In 2001 the crop structure of cultivated lands Production of basic meat and milk products changed: larger areas were planted in grains and continues to grow, and its pre-crisis4 level has been smaller - in sunflower. This is a natural result of restored. Good grains crop triggered growth in higher grain profitability. The introduction of tariff flour and groats industry that was declining a year quotas on raw sugar import didn’t help to enlarge ago.
sugar beets plantings.
The growth in agricultural inputs production This year the grain crop will be larger than that of became slower and tractor building even dropped.
2000: experts’ estimates range from 78 to This is a sign of shorter agrarian sector’s demand million tons including 40 million tons of wheat.
for domestic inputs. There are several reasons for This volume is below the 1991-1995 average gross that. First, in 2001 the system of federal leasing output but fully covers the country’s demand for was reorganized and purchases of agricultural grain. According to the traditional balance about machinery were notably reduced. Second, million tons can potentially be sold to foreign domestic agricultural machine building began to buyers but experts fear that poor development of lose its price advantage over Western machinery, export and transport infrastructure (sea ports the import of which respectively grew. Besides, capacities, shortage of railroad cars, etc.) will large external investors in the agrarian sector constrain sales.
prefer imported machinery and equipment, have Despite all the government efforts to support sugar financial resources for buying it and don’t need beets production, its volume is falling largely due state leasing. The share of such vertically to smaller planted areas. integrated agrarian holdings in the Russian agriculture steadily grows. Accordingly, the Weather conditions favour harvesting of almost all demand for domestic agricultural machinery crops. It progresses at a higher rate than in the declines. The post-devaluation price gap was not previous year and this fact ceteris paribus can lead sufficient for reorganizing this sector as well as to larger gross output.
Livestock and poultry production performance is The situation on domestic agrifood market was far less successful. Cattle and pig numbers determined by higher population’s real incomes continue to decrease even faster than in the and import trends. In the first half of the year previous year. Number of poultry grew by about incomes rose by 5.4%. However, growth of food 4% while that of sheep - only to a minor degree.
expenditures was constrained by notably bigger The output of basic livestock products in 7 months spendings on services that were due to the reform 2001 remained at actually the same level. As of housing and communal services initiated in marketing grows at a higher rate than production, some of the country’s regions (the share of services one can assume that greater share of output is in the total population’s expenditures more than marketed while barter and shadow turnover are doubled).
losing ground. Livestock productivity grows in line with decreasing number of animals. Higher population’s incomes enlarged food consumption. In 7 months 2001 the turnover of Agricultural enterprises are the major contributors retail food trade was up 6.9%, of food service - to growth in livestock and poultry production.
7.9%. The growth of incomes resulted in bigger Private farmers’ engagement therein is minor while household farming is shrinking as economy August 1998 financial crisis.
demand for such income elastic items as meat and segment failed to prevent a sharp increase of white milk products whose consumption almost attained sugar imports in January-March that also the pre-crisis level. contributed to the market over-saturation.
Meanwhile, larger supplies of home-produced Situation on the grain market in the first half of the meat and milk to the domestic market fail to cover year was determined by the volume of ending demand. As a result import of these products grew stocks and the envisaged state interventions.
and in the first half of 2001 nearly regained the During 7 months 2001 grain prices’ growth pre-crisis volumes. So, in these two aggregated equalled inflation rate. The expected good crop market segments the domestic agrifood sector will pull prices down. At the same time, the failed to benefit from the competitive advantage it announced state purchase interventions induce gained after the ruble devaluation. producers to hold grain back and thus constrain price drop. The growth of prices for food products Despite the introduced restrictions on raw sugar manufactured out of grain (bread and bread import, the domestic sugar market remains products, groats, flour) during the examined period saturated. The quota tender resulted in the was far below the inflation rate. It can be explained reduction of raw sugar imports by 14.5%. Still, the by, first, regional regulation of prices for bread, price for sugar powder in 7 months 2001 actually and, second, by the fact that prices grew primarily didn’t change (as compared to the 40% rise during for coarse grains.
the same period last year). The retail price for sugar didn’t grow as well even in the months of The gap between prices for some domestic and peak demand (July-August). This is an evidence of imported products (i.e. meat and milk products) large volumes of ending stocks that in 2001 are still persists to the benefit of domestic producers.
more than 1/3 over the 2000 level. Besides, an However, it rapidly shrinks (Picture 1).
inaccurate foreign trade regulation of sugar PICTURE 1. AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICES FOR SELECTED DOMESTIC PRODUCTS AS % OF PRICES FOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS, JUNE 128,94,92,77,71,66,63,60,50,Source: Data of the RF State Committee for Statistics.
In the first half of 2001 the growth of some foods The major contributors to import growth are meat, import that started in the previous year continued. fish, butter and cacao products. The supplies of The volumes of some items’ import during the 6 sunflower oil, citrus fruits, alcoholic and alcoholmonths already exceed the 1999 and 2000 annual free beverages grew less importantly (Table 1).
indicators though the 1997 record has not yet been attained.
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