is Netherlands (2.2 times relative to July 1, In the second half 2001 the investment climate in and at 55.2%- to January 1, 2001), UK ( 35% and Russia may experience a positive impact of the 42.3%), and Cyprus ( 2.7 times and at 21.7%). As recent increase by FITCH of the country’s for the Swiss investment, it showed a 1.5 –fold sovereign credit rating up to “B” level, however, growth relative to its respective index as of July 1, the recent terrorist attacks on the US may entail a 2000 and currently account for USD 616 mln.
contraction in the investment inflow in Russia.
E. Ilykhina The real sector: factors and trends According to Goskomstat, in the first half 2001 GDP accounted for Rb. 3,994.5 bln., thus being at 5% in excess over its respective index of the prior year. It was the dynamic expansion of final demand that has had a positive impact on the dynamics of GDP and output of goods and services by the basic sectors of the economy alike since the IInd quarter this year. Given that in the 1st quarter 2001 GDP slid by 12.7% compared with the IVth quarter 2000, with the renewal of an intense growth in investment demand, the negative results of the production decline were overcome by May through August, and the economy once again found itself on the path of economic development. In the IInd quarter, the increment in GDP reached 8.1% compared with its respective index of the prior period of the year and 51.% - relative to the prior year.
The rise in output was noted practically in all the sectors; the output of goods and services by the basic sectors grew by 5.9% compared to the period between January to August 2000. With the growth in industrial output between January through August at 5.3%, the output in the construction sector rose at 7.6%, while the retail trade turnover – by 10%.
Change in the sectoral structure of industrial output between January through August 2001, as % to the respective period of Food Light Forestry M achine building Chemicals Non-ferrous metallurgy Ferrous metallurgy Fuel Electricity -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 The analysis of the structure of the industrial rise by 6.4%, with its average monthly growth rate over shows that the growth in output practically the 2nd quarter roughly accounting for 0.2%. The completely was backed-upped by an advanced rise in consumer demand manifested itself in the growth in the sectors focused on the domestic production renewal in the food and light sectors. In market. While compared with the time period August, the increment in output the light industry between January through August 2000, the index accounted for 10.1% and in the food industry- of output accounted for 108% across the complex 3.3% relative to July. Notably, the rise in output in of investment sectors and 107.7%- across the the consumer complex between July to August complex of consumer industries. In particular, with undoubtedly can be attributed to the impact of the its increment in output accounting for 8.5% vs. to correction lowering of imports. However, even the respective period of the prior year, the sector under such circumstances, the proportion of for machine engineering is one of the most imports in the overall volume of commodity dynamically developing industries, however, the resources made up 29% in the 2nd quarter and situation in the sector still is very complex. The showed the 1% growth compared with the 1st dynamics of output by single sub-sectors is subject quarter.
to fairly substantial fluctuations. The decline in The growth rates in the output of the oil and energy output in car manufacture, machine tool sub-sectors and export-oriented industries over the manufacture and metal machine engineering time period between January through August indeed is an alarm bell. With the well-developed accounted for 104.9% and 103.6%, respectively.
inter-sectoral ties system, the contraction in output The slowdown of growth in mineral sectors shows affects the dynamics of the production of the trend to decline in the physical volume of construction materials in the metallurgical sector as exports. As concerns the overall volume of sales of well as the intensity of the processes of industrial goods, in June 2001 the proportion reproduction of the active part of capital assets in exports accounted for 28.4% of that vs. 32.4% the economy.
reported over the respective period of 2000. The Following some slowdown of the consumer trend emerges on the background of an intense rise demand growth rate over the 2nd quarter, it has of competitive imports, which may affect the renewed notably in August. The commodity nature of economic development. Between January saturation of the market is steady and fully matches to July 2001 vs. the respective period of 2000 the the population’s effective demand. When increment in imports accounted for 20.1%, while compared with July, the retail trade turnover grew the rise in industrial output made up 5.5%.
Change in the structure of the balance of financial performance over the 1st half 2000- 2001, as % over the half year Trade Communication Transport Construction Food Construction materials Forestry Machine building Chemicals Non-ferrous metallurgy Ferrous metallurgy Fuel Electricity Industrial sector -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.Whilst estimating short-term prospects for the same time, it should be noted that according to industrial development, one should pay a special results of the 1st half year, enterprises increased attention to the decline in industrial enterprises’ the share of profit spent on production expansion incomes. Since early 2001 the dynamics of profits in the composition of their investment resources.
has been characterized with a consistent fall of its That highlights the change in priorities and rate in all the sectors of the economy from 124.5% motivation of economic activity – the domestic in January down to 96.3% between January to July, producers link the prospects for expansion and while the respective fall in the industrial sector was maintenance of their positions in the national and from 104.5% down to 83.0%. Between January to external markets with an activation of technical July the financial performance balance accounted modernization and renewal of their production.
for Rb. 652.7 bln., including the industrial sector Given that in 2000 the rise in investment demand Rb. 246.9 bln. The profit rate in the industrial was generated by the growth in revenues in the sector fell from 18.0% between January to July export-oriented industrial sector, this year it is the 2000 to 10.0% over the respective period this year.
sub-sectors of investment and consumer The reduction in the profit rate in the industrial complexes, and the sphere of services that induce sector is determined by rising production costs due the investment renewal process. While the profit to the growth in wholesale prices and tariffs for rate in the fuel complex was down by 8.1% consumed material resources against a more compared with the 1st half 2000 and in the gradual change in pricing of industrial producers, metallurgical sector it fell almost twice, the sector as well as because of an advanced growth rate of for machine engineering increased its profit by salaries and wages against the price dynamics for 34.9%, in the industry of construction materials- final products. In addition, the situation is affected by 62.1%, and in the construction sector- by by a relative worsening of the situation in external 38.6%. The characteristic feature of investment markets for some Russian exports. Should the demand over the period between April to August trend intensify further on, it would be fairly became the shift in its structure towards machine- problematic to count on investment growth that, in engineering produce, which supported the essence, is the main source of economic growth. At production of technological equipment, along with a simultaneous rise in the demand for construction especially attentive towards the areas in which a services and works. generation of a new wave of inflation may become possible – that is, the price rise for gas, growth in The positive factor supporting the level of business tariffs for cargo transportation and paid services to activity has become the trend to decline of inflation the population, and seasonal price rise in the rate. Zero inflation in August appeared an agrarian sector.
additional factor of acceleration of the growth in O. Izryadnova final demand. In view of that, one should be IET Monthly Trends Survey: September The continuous rise in monetary sales allowed industry lacking the stock for the fourth month enterprises a further increase in their rate of output running. In September, they were joined by the and getting rid of barter. However the stock of forestry, wood-working, and paper and pulp finished goods has remained excessive and sectors.
forecasts of ales in the IVth quarter appeared the The normal availability of credits for industrial most moderate ones since early 2000.
enterprises from all the sources grew by 11 pints In September, the growth rates of monetary sales of over the year and currently accounts for 52%. IT is industrial products continued to grow. Their balance the enterprises operating in the sectors for nongrew by another 4 pints and reached the maximum ferrous metallurgy and electric power that value observed over the past 11 months. Effective experiencing the lest problems with obtaining demand grew in all the sectors except the non-ferrous credits, while those of the forestry and construction metallurgy that reported an absolute fall in the index. sector find it most difficult to get loans.
As a result, according to preliminary estimates, overall, The forecasts of the change in effective demand the share of industrial output paid for in cash reached deteriorated drastically in September – in the IVth 76%, while the volumes of barter deals continued their quarter the enterprises envisage a substantial decline, with the contraction rate of such transactions slowdown of the growth rate of their monetary growing for the third month running. It is the sectors sales. There has not been such a low optimism in for chemicals, petrochemicals,, machine engineering the industrial sector since early 2000. The and light industry that reported the most intensive slowdown in the growth rate of monetary sales is decline in their barter deals, while none of the sectors forecasted by all the sectors, while the has reported any growth in barter. As well, the volume metallurgical sector and construction industry of off-set and promissory note deals has slowed down- envisage their absolute decline.
in September, the surveys registered one of the slowest The forecasts of barter deals “improved” by rates of decline if such deals since early 2000.
points, i.e. the enterprises expect a more intensive The renewal of the growth in effective demand contraction in such transactions at the end of the allowed enterprises to proceed with the growth in year. The growth in barter may become possible their output. In September, the intensity of the only in the food-processing sector. The forecasts of growth in output rose by another balance points.
off-set and promissory note transactions remained Clearly, the production has not grown at such a unchanged in September, and the balance of these rapid pace over the past 16 months. All the forecasts is slightly different from zero, which industry branches demonstrated a growth in their testifies to a probable stabilization of their rate of output, except the metallurgical and volumes.
construction sectors. A rapid growth in output has In September, the forecasts of changes in output improved sharply the enterprises’ estimates of their remained unchanged – the industrial sector volumes of output: the share of reports “below maintains fairly strong hopes for a growth in norm” fell to 56%, which has become the best output that are especially great in the machinevalue ever registered by 112 surveys held since engineering sector, chemicals, petrochemicals, and March 1992 (for reference: in “bad times”, the the light industry. Some fall in output may become share of such reports would be 91%).
possible only in the industry of construction A fast growth in output has ceased the contraction materials.
in the excessive stock of finished products. In Business surveys provide an unparalleled September, the surveys once again registered a opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of enterprises’ slight growth in the excessive stock, with the forecasts on microlevel. Let us employ a simple construction sector and the food-processing and clear indicator – the proportion (as %) of enterprises whose forecasts have justified in the 1st, to 1995 and in 1997 the accuracy of these forecasts 2nd, or 3rd month following the month covered by was over 70%, while during recent years it has the survey. As showed by calculations, over the accounted for 60%.
time of holding the surveys the accuracy of It is the forecasts of non-monetary kinds of enterprises’ forecasts has undergone certain demand that hold the second position in terms of changes. The comparison of the forecasted and accuracy: they are accurate at 64% on average, and actual changes across all the indicators on this rate has nor fluctuated substantially from year microlevel shows that the forecasts appeared more to year. The average accuracy of forecasts of accurate on the month that immediately followed changes in effective demand accounted for 55% the month covered by the survey, while the over the 72 surveys that monitored this particular accuracy of forecasts for the 2nd and 3rd months indicator. The accuracy of such forecasts tends to slides by 2 and 4 points, respectively. Note that the grow, with the best value reaching 65-66%. It is questionnaire contains the questions on forecasts volumes of output which is the worst indicator in for 2-3 months. As concerns the indicators that are terms of planning and predictability: it was proved covered by the data both on forecasts and their in 54% of cases, and there were no changes in the further realization, it is the changes in producer accuracy of forecasting this indicator over the time prices that the enterprises succeed to predict most period between 1993 through 2001.
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