Interestingly, in the 2nd quarter the growth rate of the banks-operators in the OVVZ market One should pay a special attention to the dynamics accelerated sharply vs. the 1st quarter (12.1% vs. of the profit to assets ratio. The ROA index of the 3.9%, respectively). Thus, given that in the 1st average Moscow bank for 2000 accounted for quarter it was the average Moscow bank’s assets 0.95%, while it grew up to 1.7% over the first half that showed a faster rise ( 8.1 and 11.25% in the 1st 2001 in annual terms.
and 2nd quarters, respectively), in the 2ns quarter it The respective index for the group of banks that was the banks- operators in the OVVZ market that provide their quotations of OVVZ was positive showed a greater growth pace of their assets.
between 2000 to 2001, however with a downward Table 2 presents some indices of the structure of trend (2.9% over 2000 and 0.8% annualized over the balance of the two groups of banks as of the the 1st half 2001).
beginning 2001 and mid-2001. The comparison TABLE 2. SOME INDICES OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE BALANCE AS % TO ASSETS, AS OF THE END-MONTH Moscow banks Banks- active operators Indices as % to assets in the market for OVVZ The data of the balance 12.2000 06.200 12.2000 06.Assets denominated in foreign 48.7 47.9 43 39.Capital in the banking sector 41.4 41.7 32.6 Including in foreign exchange 22.8 23.9 12.7 8.Loans extended to the non-banking 38.1 39.5 43.3 Including in foreign exchange 18 17.5 17.6 16.Promissory notes (excluding banks’ 7.2 7.2 12.9 11.Including in foreign exchange 1 0.9 5.6 4.Obligations and shares 9.1 7.8 9.2 10.Including in foreign exchange 5.6 4.5 6.9 FDO=s 6.5 5.6 7.4 8.Including in foreign exchange 4.1 3.8 6 7.Deposits 17.2 17.8 22.4 Including in foreign exchange 12.9 13.5 13.1 13. Deposits placed by legal entities 12.3 12.1 17.3 Including in foreign exchange 9.2 9.1 9.3 Deposits placed by private 4.9 5.7 5.1 Including in foreign exchange 3.7 4.4 3.8 4.Balance-sheet capital 21.3 20 14.6 12.For reference:
The average assets as Rb.bln. 1.74 2.05 12.6 14.Calculated on the data of CBR and STIiK company E.Marushkina, E. Timofeev Investment in the real sector The positive dynamics of growth in investment in compared to dynamics of GDP. When compared the real sector was in place between January with the 1st half 2000, the share of investment in through August 2001. During this period the capital assets grew by 1.7 per cent points and volume of investment in capital assets from all the accounted for 14.6%. According to results of the sources of financing accounted for Rb. 827.7 bln., 1st half 2001, the growth in investment in capital or at 7.5% more than the one reported over the assets compared with the respective period of the period between January through August 2000. The prior year was registered in all the federal Superinvestment demand rises at an advanced pace region except the Central one.
Dynamics of investment in capital assets across the Federal Super-regions in the 1st half 2001, as % to the 1st half 126.96.36.199.105.92.The growth in investment demand is accompanied compared with the prior year. In the 1st half by an intense increase in output in all the sectors of enterprises and organizations invested as much as the investment complex. During the period in Rb. 45 bln. in purchasing import equipment, or question (January- August 2001), the increment in 24.6% of the overall volume of investment in the machine- engineering output accounted for machinery and equipment (with no account for the 8.5%, while the one in the industry of construction share of small businesses).
materials – 5.9%, and services and works in the The characteristic feature of the change in the construction sector- 7.6%.
structure of investment in capital assets across the The growing demand for new kinds of machinery sources of funding in the 1st half 2001 is a trend to and equipment is related to the activation of the decline in enterprises’ own funds from 49.3% vs.
process of renewal of machinery stock in main 53.3% reported over the respective period of the sectors of the economy and production prior year. Despite a slowdown in the profit growth reconstruction. That determines major changes in rates, the enterprises proceed with increasing their the technological structure of investment. The investing in production modernization and trend to systematic increase in the share of expansion. When compared with the 1st half 2001, spending on machinery and equipment has been in the share of profit in the structure of enterprises’ place over the past two years. In the 1st half 2001 spending on investment grew by 8.3 per cent the share of investment in machinery and points.
equipment accounted for 35.7% vs. 34.8% reported At the same time the share of banking credit in the over the respective period of the prior year.
composition of attracted funds continues to However, on the whole, the domestic machine decline, especially the one of credits extended by engineering sector does not satisfy the sharply foreign banks and loans from other organizations.
growing demand for technical means, and the The fall in the share of budget capital- from 20.6% import of machinery and equipment nearly doubled in the 1st half 2000 to 19.2% over the respective Ural West Volga NorthRussia Central Siberian Far-East Southern period this year can be attributed to the contraction off-budget funds in the structure of the sources of in the volume of funds attracted from the budgets investment funding in the real sector rose by 1.of the Federation’s Subjects from 14.3 to 12.9%. per cent points.
When compared with the prior year, the share of TABLE. STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENT IN CAPITAL ASSETS BY SOURCES OF FINANCING, AS % TO RESULT 1998 1999 2000 1st half 2000 Investment in capital assets 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,Including 1. Own capital 53,2 52,4 46,1 53,5 49,Of which profit 13,2 15,9 23,4 21,7 24,2. Attracted capital 46,8 47,6 53,9 46,5 50,Of which Budget funds 19,1 17,0 21,2 20,6 19,Including from:
Federal budget 6,5 6,4 5,8 5,2 5,Budgets of the Federation’s Subjects 12,6 9,6 14,4 14,3 12,Banking credits 4,8 4,2 2,9 4,0 3,Borrowed funds 4,3 5,6 7,2 9,4 6,Resources of off-budget funds 10,7 8,6 4,8 3,8 4,Others 7,8 12,2 17,8 8,7 17,Of the overall volume of investment in capital 3,4 6,6 4,6 4,9 4,assets from abroad Source: Goskomstat of RF In the 2001 federal budget Rb. 282. Bln was 15.5% more than in 2001). Rb. 5.82 bln. should be allocated to finance government capital spent on maintenance and development of the investment, including Rb. 23.8 bln.- to fund the production complex (16% of the overall amount of Federal Targeted Investment Program. In 2001, the spending on the Program). When compared with financing of public investment is carried out more 2001, the increment in public capital investment in evenly than in the past: between January through the production complex should make up 73%, with August the government has funded some 65% of a special emphasis put on solving the problems of the annual limit of public capital investment, while development of infrastructure branches and the Federal targeted investment program was increasing the reliability of the country’s energy funded at 60.7% of its annual limit (Rb. 14.4 bln.), sufficiency.
and Rb. 3.7 bln. was spent to repay the credit Overall, the dynamics and nature of the use of liability for earlier complete works.
public capital investment by major directions According to the 2002 federal budget law, it is match the proclaimed goals of political and envisaged that the state investment should reach economic and social development in 2002.
Rb. 42.27 bln, which should make up 0.35% GDP According to FITCH’s estimates, Russia appears and 2.2% of the overall projected volume of one of the most successfully developing economies investment in capital assets, thus allowing the 30% in terms of macroeconomic indicators. Analysts increment in public investment vs. 2001.
believe that the RF government was efficient in According to the draft 2002 federal budget law, the using additional revenues generated thanks to high funding of the Federal targeted investment oil prices. Standard and Poor’s confirmed all program should amount to Rb. 34.46 bln., or at Russia’s ratings – the long-run ‘B’ and short-run 33.3% more than the respective sum allocated for ‘B’ alike, and changed their forecast of the the Program implementation in 2001. The main country’s long-run sovereign credit ratings from part of government capital investment is ‘stable’ for ‘positive’.
designated for funding the social sector – 61.2% ( a O. Izryadnova Foreign Investment in Russian economy As of July 1, 2001, the foreign capital accumulated regard to the monetary and credit regulatory in Russian economy, including investments from bodies, commercial and savings banks, inclusive of the CIS states accounted for USD 33.84 bln. Rb.- denominated investment, in USD equivalent, accounted for 39.9%. This year is characterized The increment in the overall volume of foreign with the growth in the capital exportation volume investment in the Russian economy in the first half compared with the respective period of 2000.
2001 vs. the respective period of 2000, without Ist half year, as USD mln. Change vs. the respective period (as of July 1) of the prior year 1999 2000 2001 2000 Investment accumulated as of the beginning of the periodНакоплено 35 338 29 253 32 005 -17,2% 9,4% инвестиций на начало периода Investment inflow over the 4 271 4 778 6 684 11,9% 39,9% period Investment accumulated as of 27 820 30 679 33 839 10,3% 10,3% the end of the period Total: investment withdrawn 11 789 3 352 4 850 -71,6% 44,7% (repaid) over the period It was portfolio investment that showed the highest 40.5% and 33.9%, respectively. At the same time growth rate vs. other kind of investment in the first the structure of foreign investment in the Ist half half 2001 (4.7-fold). The growth in the volume of 2001 remained practically unchanged vs. the direct and other foreign investment in the national respective period of economy over the period in question accounted for Foreign investment inflow in the 1st half year 1998 1999 2000 As USD Share as As USD Share as As USD Share as As USD Share as mln. % mln. % mln. % mln. % Total 7697,9 100 4271 100 4778 100 including:
2509 37,- direct 1509,4 19,6 2429 56,9 1786 37,238 3,- portfolio 32,4 0,4 7 0,2 51 1,3937 58,- others* 6156,1 80 1835 43 2941 61,*Investment mostly formed at the expense of credits received not from direct investors- World Bank, IMF, EBRD, and the resources investors spend on purchasing government bonds, primarily GKO-OFZ.
As concerns the sectoral structure of foreign industrial sector over the period in question investment attracted in the national economy in the accounted for USD 2,487 mln., or at 9.4% more 1st half 2001, their major part (although a smaller than in the Ist half 2000 (2,273 mln., or 45.6% of one) still falls within the industrial sector. The the aggregate volume of attracted investment).
volume of foreign investment in the national The sectoral structure of foreign investment in RF in the 1st half 1.5% 7.2% 6.0% 37.2% 36.3% 2.7% 9.1% Industrial sector Construction Transport and communication Trade and public catering General activities on ensuring the functioning of the market Finance, credit, insurance, pension system Other sectors This year, one notes a substantial growth in preferences that have taken place over recent years investment in trade and public catering (over 3- and attributed to the lowering attractiveness of fold one compared with the 1st half 2000), which Russian fuel and energy complex.
reflects changes in foreign investors’ sectoral Foreign investment attracted over the 1st half year, as USD mln.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Fuel sector 153 588 1147 1434 286 Торговля и Trade 375 313 519 583 766 and public catering The foreign capital gradually increases its The major part of FDI (69%) was forwarded participation in the national banking system. mostly to trade and public catering (USD During 7 months of 2001 the number of banks with mln.), followed by the fuel and food sectors (foreign participation grew up to 35 (as of January and 272 mln., respectively), machine building (1, 2001, there were 33 ones), of which 21 bank are mln.), transport (378 mln.). The share of FDI in the at 100% owned by foreign capital. industrial sector in the Ist half 2001 accounted for 33% (USD 831 mln.) of the overall volume of As concerns main industries, it is metallurgy, the direct investment in the national economy this year fuel and food-processing sectors that still appear (in the 1st half 2000- 45%, 1st half 1999- 70.4%).
most attractive to foreign investors. At the same time foreign investment in the metallurgical and As concerns the geographic structure of foreign fuel sectors grew by 46.1% and 4.2% compared investment in the 1st half 2001, the clear leader is with the 1st half 2000, thus accounting for USD Cyprus (17%), USA (12.3%), France (10%), 802 mln and 298 mln (32.2% and 12% of the Switzerland (9.4%), and UK (8.8%). According to aggregate investment in the industrial sector), results of the 1st half 2001, the country structure of while investments in the food sector fell by 13.1% the accumulated capital differs substantially from and currently account for USD 701 mln. the analogous structure of the investment inflow over the first half this year Geographic structure of foreign investment accumulated in the Russian economy in the 1st half Netherlands Other countries 6.6% USA 22.4% 15.9% Switzerland 1.8% France 10.5% Cyprus 15.2% UK Germany 9.6% 18.0% When compared with the respective period of In the meantime, the Swiss public agency 2000, the level of the US investment (as of July 1, established in 1997 and dealing with 2001) fell by 36.2% relative to the one reported as encouragement of a long-term cooperation of July 1, 2000 and by 23.7%- relative to early between Swiss companies and Russian private 2001, while the respective indices for German sector considers the possibility of expanding investment inflow contraction accounted for 7.3% cooperation with small- and medium-size Russian and 6.8%. At the same time among the major businesses in the areas of car manufacturing, countries- investors in Russia that increased the energy, biotechnology, clock, food, and other volume of investing over the period in question, it industries.
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