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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES SEPTEMBER 2001 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2001 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 021018 of 09.11.95 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The economy and politics in September 2001.....................................................................................3 The state of the federal budget.............................................................................................................3 Monetary Policy...................................................................................................................................6 Financial Markets.................................................................................................................................8 The Russian banks on the market for government bonds denominated in foreign exchange (OVVZ).............................................................................................................17 Investment in the real sector...............................................................................................................20 Foreign Investment in Russian economy...........................................................................................22 The real sector: factors and trends......................................................................................................24 IET Monthly Trends Survey: September 2001..................................................................................27 The oil and gas sector.........................................................................................................................28 Russian Agrifood Sector in 6 months 2001........................................................................................31 Foreign trade....................................................................................................................................... The economy and politics in September Russias economic and political life in September contraction in budget revenues due to the was full of events that may have a substantial worsening economic situation worldwide and effect on the countrys further development. growth in the defense expenditure. At the same time, in the short run such a fall in budget revenues The parameters and the structure of the national may be compensated with utilization of a economy in the short run will find themselves substantial amount of balances on budget under a great impact of the 2002 federal budget recipients accounts, which should preclude from law, the draft of which currently is under arise in domestic prices and deterioration of the consideration of the State Duma, and the renewal financial situation by the end of the year.

of the Single Tariff Agency (STA).

The envisaged long recession of the US economy Obviously, the rise of tension in the world in the and the world economy on the whole, along with a wake of terrorists attack on the US and the sharp leap of investment risks may increasingly envisaged strike back should not be painless for the undermine investors confidence in emerging Russian economy as well. However the impact of markets. At the same time the current political and these factors is ambiguous both from the viewpoint economic situation (with internal political stability, of prospects for maintenance of the consistently budget proficit back-upped by the ongoing liberal vector of the governmental economic policy economic growth, liberalization of tax and and in view of investment attractiveness of the financial law, adoption of the Land Code as its key Russian economy.

characteristics) allows estimate Russias position A long-lasting downfall in oil prices in medium as relatively favorable. With other conditions being run forecasted by some analysts is pregnant with equal, Russias course towards supporting the US difficulties in regard to the execution of the also increases Russias investment attractiveness to planned indices of the draft 2002 federal budget the West, including international financial and possible deterioration of the situation with institutions.

repaying the external debt. Such a danger becomes T. Drobyshevskaya especially evident against the background of The state of the federal budget TABLE 1. THE MONTHLY EXECUTION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (IN COMPARABLE PRICES) III `00 VII`00 00 I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,0% 2,4% 2,6% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,5% Personal income tax 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 8,0% 8,0% 7,3% 9,1% 9,4% 9,0% 9,2% 9,3% 9,2% 9,0% Tax on foreign trade and foreign 3,5% 3,4% 3,3% 3,6% 4,2% 4,1% 4,0% 3,9% 3,9% 3,9% trade operations Other taxes, duties and payments 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 1,1% 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% Total- taxes and charges 14,1% 14,6% 13,9% 15,3% 16,0% 15,8% 16,3% 16,6% 16,3% 16,2% Non- tax revenues 1,8% 2,1% 2,3% 1,0% 1,2% 1,1% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,3% Revenues, total 16,0% 16,7% 16,2% 16,0% 17,1% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,6% 17,5% Expenditure Public administration 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% National defense 3,0% 2,6% 2,7% 1,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% International activities 0,8% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Judicial power 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Law enforcement and security 1,3% 1,4% 1,5% 0,7% 1,1% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% activities TABLE 1.

THE MONTHLY EXECUTION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (IN COMPARABLE PRICES) Fundamental research 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Services provided for the 0,5% 0,6% 0,9% 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% national economy Social services 1,8% 1,9% 1,9% 1,2% 1,7% 1,9% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% Servicing of public debt 2,9% 3,0% 2,5% 3,2% 5,6% 4,7% 3,7% 3,4% 3,1% 2,9% Other expenditure 3,0% 2,9% 3,1% 3,3% 3,2% 2,9% 3,0% 3,1% 3,2% 3,1% Expenditure, total 13,8% 13,3% 13,7% 10,4% 14,6% 14,3% 14,2% 14,2% 14,3% 14,0% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,2% 3,4% 2,5% 5,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,5% Expenditure and loans, -0,3% -0,6% 0,0% -3,7% -0,8% -0,6% -1,1% -1,7% -1,3% -1,1% redemption exclusive Budget deficit (-) -1,9% -2,9% -2,5% -2,1% -1,7% -2,1% -2,3% -2,0% -2,0% -2,4% Domestic financing -2,2% -3,4% -2,5% -5,7% -2,5% -2,6% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,5% TABLE 2.THE MONTHLY EXECUTION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (IN % GDP, ACTUAL FINANCING) I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`01 VIII`Total 16,0% 16,7% 16,8% 17,4% 17,7% 17,6% 17,5% 17,4% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,8% 2,9% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,2% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Law enforcement and security 1,7% 1,9% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,7% 1,7% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% national economy Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,5% 2,6% 2,5% 2,5% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 3,1% 2,9% 3,2% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,4% 3,1% 2,5% 2,7% 3,3% 3,2% 3,2% Total expenditure 15,1% 18,1% 17,1% 16,3% 16,0% 16,0% 15,5% 15,9% Proficit (+) / deficit (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,6% 1,6% 2,0% 1,5% The data on the execution of the federal budget The execution of the expenditure part of the federal budget between January through July in terms of over the seven months of 2001 is given in Table 11.

fulfilled financing accounted for 14.0%, while in As of August 1,the revenues to the federal budget cash execution equivalent- 15.7% of GDP That 2001 accounted for 17.5% of GDP, including tax testified to some lowering of the expenditure level revenues 16.2%, while expenditure made up ( roughly at 0.3 p.p.) compared to the average 14.0% of GDP (15.7% of GDP in terms of fulfilled annual index. Such a lowering can be attributed to funding), including non- interest ones 11.1% of seasonality, and last year there was an analogous GDP (12.7% in terms of fulfilled financing). The lowering of expenditure.

level of budget proficit accounted for 3.5% of GDOP (1.9% of GDP in terms of filfilled funding).

The estimate of the execution of the expenditure part of the federal budget over the period Between January through July 2001 the execution concerned varies due to the methodology of the of the federal budget was characterized with the accounting of operations- whether it is calculated 1.6 per cent points excess of the level of tax in terms of fulfilled funding or cash execution. In revenues over the respective index of 2000, which the former case the volume of expenditure again can be attributed to the rise in collection of accounted for 14.2% of GDP, while in the latter- indirect taxes, primarily VAT and excises (at 16.1% of GDP.

p.p.), and taxes on foreign trade (0.5 p.p.).

The comparison of the federal budget execution indices over the first seven months 2001 with the analogous indices of the prior year allows noting Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices the following changes: whilst the spending on may be subject to revision servicing the public debt during the seven months The main difference between the cash execution of of 2001 was roughly equal to the respective index expenditure and the fulfilled funding falls under of 2000 (2.9% of GDP and 3.0% of GDP, such outlays as national defense (0.2 p.p.), law respectively), during the former period the enforcement (0.3 p.p.), services to industry government has succeeded to repay as much as Rb.

branches (0.2 p.p.), and the social sphere (0.91 bln. of principal body of its external debt and p.p.).

interest payments on that totaled Rb. 116 bln., as As of early August, the balances of accounts on well as 30 bln. Rb. worth domestic debt and 24.accounting the federal budget funds (without bln. worth interest payments on that. At the same regard to the funds accumulated on personal time the expenditure on supporting the national accounts of recipients of budget funds) dropped to industry branches nearly doubled when compared Rb. 94 bln.. Overall, since early 2001 the wit 2000 ( from 0.6% of GDP to 1% of GDP).

aforementioned funds (including the moneys of the Road and Ecological Funds) grew by Rb. 13.8 bln.

TABLE 3. ACTUAL TAX REVENUES TO THE FEDERAL BUDGET, ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE MTC ( IN PRICES OF JANUARY 1998).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 10067 11586 12281 12287 10524 11369 12785 12838 12514 14238 16190 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 15030 16161 18247 20714 23469 18817 18219 18762 17422 18232 20306 I II III IV V VI VII 20580 19978 22917 26959 25311 23491 The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal data has been changed, and the debts to the federal budget is given in Fig. 1. Since 2001 the form of budget by all the taxes are no longer singled out.

the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical The execution of the consolidated budget between 1998 through 2001 is represented in Table 4.

TABLE 4.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 25,7% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,2% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,3% Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to the preceding month) 60% Monthly rate of the VAT arrears(%) 50% Monthly rate of the profit tax arrears(%) Monthly rate of overall tax arrears(%) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Figure 2. Cumulative real monthly increase of tax arrears to the federal budget (in real RUR) 160 VAT arrears Profit tax arrears 140 Overall tax arrears 120 100 80 60 40 20 S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In August 2001 the CPI growth rate fell to zero less than the one over the respective period of point. That occurred mainly due to seasonal (13.613.7% against 14.1%)2. However, in view of factors, namely, the some 14.8% price fall for the forthcoming price rise for gas and rail fruits and vegetables over the month. Thus, in transportation as well as discontinuance of August the increment of the food stuffs price index seasonal factors effect, we still forecast the annual was negative and accounted for -1,0%. The prices inflation rate at 2021%, i.e. at the level of 2000.

for non-food goods rose by 0.8%, and for services by 2.3%. It is worth noting that in August (for the first time this year) the growth in petroleum prices was noted (by 0.2%). The highest inflation rate was recorded in housing sector the prices went up by 3.6% there.

In September the tendency to the decline in CPI growth rates still was in place (see Fig. 1), and inflation rate did not exceed 0.20.3%. Thus, the In August, according to results of 8 months, the price growth for three quarters of 2001 turned to be correlation was 12,6% to 13,4% in favor of 2000.

February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August Novembe February May August FIGURE 1.

Consumer Price Index in 1,1% 0,9% 0,7% 0,5% 0,3% 0,1% -0,1% FIGURE 2.

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