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Table Governmental sceScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario nario Growth in real GDP, % 4,6% 5,0% 4,9% 4,0% CPI, % 11,7% 12,2% 11,9% 11,0% Nominal GDP, Rub. billion 13440 13550 13480 Tax revenues of the RF federal 2322 2383 2353 budget, Rub. billionTax revenues of the RF federal 17,28% 17,59% 17,46% 16,83% budget, % of GDP Export from RF, US $ billion 109,9 122,0 116,6 93,Import from RF, US $ billion 64,9 65,6 65,2 63,Gold and currency reserves of the 53,1 58,7 57,2 46,RF CB, US $ billion Nominal Ruble rate, Rub. / US $ 33,72 33,13 33,38 34,Real effective Ruble rate (Decem106,3 108,7 106,5 103,ber of 1994 = 100) At the second stage the best specification was evaluated basing on the whole available data array, including 2002. Prognosis for 2003 based on coefficients obtained for the last model. For the results see the Table. Calculations for the governmental scenario were carried out basing on mean values of the conservative and optimistic scenarios of the RF MTED.

Including SST revenues.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Therefore, the estimates indicate that according to the most probable scenarios the situation in the Russian economy in 2003 will be better than shown in the forecasts of the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development used for work on the draft federal budget. The rates of growth in real GDP are expected to somewhat exceed target indicators (up to 5 per cent), while inflation estimates demonstrate that the rise in prices most probably will be within the range of base values selected by the Finance Ministry and RF Central Bank. Predicted tax revenues of the federal budget exceed the amounts set forth in the law on the federal budget for 2003, what allows the Government to execute the budget taking into account the record high amount of payments related to repayment and servicing of the RF external debt. Moreover, it is expected that by end-year the financial reserve, which may become the basis for formation of the future stabilization fund, will be preserved, or even increased the more so that the RF Finance Ministry has in fact balanced the target expenditures of the budget for 2003 against revenues derived in the case oil prices would be close to the average long term level (US $ 18 to 20 per barrel).

2.3.3. Interbudgetary Relations and Sub-National Finance The main specifics of the preceding year were attempts to take radical decisions in the sphere of economic policies directly relating to problems of interbudgetary relations, regional and municipal finance. First, possible policy shifts may be attributed to the effect of the preliminary results of the reform concerning the tax on profits of enterprises, especially such its aspect as changes in the sharing arrangements of this tax among the federal budget, budgets of RF subjects, and municipal budgets. Second, there started an active discussion about the possible ways to compensate federal and regional budgets for the revenues generated by the abolished since January 1, 2003, taxes on users of motor roads and vehicle owners. Third, the Presidential Commission working out recommendations as concerns delimitation of jurisdictions and powers among the federal authorities, subjects of the Russian Federation, and local governments completed its work, which resulted, among other documents, in the draft new version of the federal law On general principles of organization of local government in the Russian Federation and the draft law On general principles of organization of legislative (representative) and executive authorities of RF subjects. It is expected that enactment of these documents will have a serious impact on the development of interbudgetary relations, regional and municipal finance.

Budgets of Different Levels: Trends in Relationships In order to analyze main trends observed in 2002 as concerns the relations among budgets of different levels, it would be feasible to review the structure of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and its dynamics over the few past years. For data characterizing the share of tax revenues, revenues and expenditures of budgets of RF subjects in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation see Table 15.

INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRNSITION http://www.iet.ru Table The share of certain budgetary indicators in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 1992 through 2002 (in %) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Tax revenues 44,20 53,10 53,40 47,60 49,50 53,10 54,00 48,90 43,50 37,40 39,Revenues* 44,08 53,08 52,91 47,59 49,52 53,07 50,64 46,42 43,57 36,81 37,Expenditures 34,00 40,30 37,70 43,40 45,40 48,10 48,40 46,90 54,40 56,60 49,* Financial aid from the federal budget is excluded.

Source: RF Finance Ministry, authors calculations.

The data presented in Table 15 demonstrate that the trend towards a decline in the share of tax revenues of the consolidated budget received by the budgets of RF subjects observed over the last four years has somewhat changed. For instance, according to the results of budget administration in 2002, consolidated budgets of RF subjects received over 39 per cent of the total tax revenues of the budgetary system. At the same time, the share of aggregate revenues of RF subjects in the Total revenues item was at the level slightly above the level registered in the preceding year making a little over 37 per cent. At the same time the share of expenditures of the budgetary system financed from consolidated budgets of RF subjects declined: according to the results of 2002 it made about 50 per cent.

It shall be pointed out that the growth in the share of tax revenues of regional budgets in the revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation took place even at the background of technical increase in tax revenues of the federal budget at the expense of single social tax transferred to the budget of the Pension Fund for financing of the base component of the labor pension. As compared with budget administration in 2001, tax revenues of regional consolidated budgets have increased from 9.64 per cent to 10 per cent of GDP in 2002, while tax revenues of the federal budget declined from 16.16 per cent in 2001 to 15.5 per cent of GDP in 2002. Tax revenues of the budgets of RF subjects grew in spite of a decline in revenues generated by the tax on profits of organizations by 0.66 per cent of GDP as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year, which was nevertheless compensated by an increase in revenues generated by the tax on incomes of individuals, property taxes (primarily the tax on property of enterprises), charges for use of natural resources, and other taxes and charges. At the same time, a factor behind the increase in revenues from the property tax on organizations was the revaluation of fixed assets taking place in the beginning of the year. In spite of the decline in non-tax and other revenues, the total amount of revenues of the consolidated budgets of RF subjects has exceeded the level registered in the preceding year by 0.5 p.p. of GDP.

In 2002, there was also observed a growth in revenues of the consolidated budgets of RF subjects from 14.35 per cent to 14.91 per cent of GDP, while expenditures increased more considerably from 14.32 per cent to 15.31 per cent of GDP. Accordingly, a deficit of the consolidated budget of RF subjects has been registered for the first time over the few past years. The deficit made 0.4 per cent of GDP (as compared with the surplus at 0.04 per cent of GDP registered in 2001). The deficit was primarily financed at the expense of issuance of government and municipal bonds and federal budget loans, other credits, and revenues generated by privatization of state and municipally owned property.

The following conclusions may be derived basing on the analysis of quantitative characteristics of financial aid to the budgets of RF subjects from the federal budget (see Table 16).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks First, the total amount of financial support (including the balance of funds borrowed from and repaid to the federal budget) of regions at the expense of the federal budget has somewhat increased in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year and made over 3 per cent of GDP in 2002. Second, subsidies for equalization of minimal budgetary security still made the bulk of the financial aid (transfers from the Fund of Financial Support of Regions) over 50 per cent of the total amount of financial aid, while subventions and subsidies from the Compensatory Fund (CF) made about 15 per cent of the total amount of financial aid.

Table Federal financial aid to budgets of other levels in 1992 through 2003 (in % of GDP) 2001 2002 2003* 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Rub. % of Rub. % of Rub. % of mil. GDP mil. GDP mil. GDP Subsidies and subven- 0,00 0,02 0,09 0,06 0,09 0,13 0,10 0,06 0,15 49060,0 0,54 31059,2 0,34 31905 0,tions Including:

Subsidies and subventions to 0,11 10590,0 0,12 11544,4 0,13 CATEs and the town of Baikonur Subsidies to CATEs Subsidies to the town of Baikonur Capital investment subventions to CATEs Resettlement subventions to CATEs Subventions to CATEs for financing of CATE development programs Other subsidies and 0,04 38470,0 0,42 19514,8 0,21 subventions Subsidy to the town of Sochi Subsidies to budgets of RF subjects to compensate for losses relat- ing to excises on tobacco and alcohol products Table 16 (contd) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRNSITION http://www.iet.ru Rub. % of Rub. % of Rub. % of mil. GDP mil. GDP mil. GDP Subsidies compensating losses relating to maintenance of HPU objects transferred under jurisdiction of local governments Other subsidies to budgets of RF subjects Other subventions to budgets of RF subjects and local governments Subventions 0,79 0,69 0,42 0,12 0,12 0,09 0,02 0,Transfers 0,00 0,00 0,36 1,17 1,04 1,22 1,12 0,99 0,96 103210,0 1,14 147490,9 1,62 173168 1,from FFSR Including: 0,00 0,Transfers 0,00 0,00 0,36 0,86 0,68 0,86 1,00 0,99 0,96 103210,0 1,14 147490,9 1,35 Of which:

state support of seasonal 0,06 7000,0 0,08 8963,0 0,08 deliveries to the North Transfers at the expense 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,31 0,36 0,36 0,of VAT Subsidies and subventions from 33380,0 0,37 40757,6 0,45 47011 0,the Compensatory Fund Including:

Subsides for implementation of the law on so- 11480,0 0,13 11943,7 0,13 cial security of disabled persons Subventions for implementation of 21900,0 0,24 23904,5 0,26 the law on state family allowances Table 16 (contd) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Rub. % of Rub. % of Rub. % of mil. GDP mil. GDP mil. GDP Subventions for compensation of privileges related to payment for HPU services in accordance with the federal legislation Other subventions and subsidies from Compensatory Fund Resources of the Fund of CoFinancing 18732,1 5000 0,of Social Expenditures Resources of the Fund of Regional 0,03 4530,0 0,05 17491,7 0,19 25072 0,Development State support of road 0,18 0,11 24880,0 0,27 29736,0 0,33 39000 0,networks Resources of the Fund of Reforma0,0 0,00 1200,0 0,01 1300 0,tion of regional finances Funds transferred 0,61 1,95 2,54 0,42 0,81 0,43 0,36 0,14 0,28 4510,0 0,05 0,as mutual payments Loans minus repayment to 0,09 0,03 0,02 0,04 0,23 0,64 -0,03 -0,10 -0,08 1625,2 0,02 0,other budgetary levels:

Arrears of transfers from budgets of RF 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,subjects to target budgetary funds Other types of financial 0,00 11500,0 0,13 8675,0 0,10 aid Table 16 (contd) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRNSITION http://www.iet.ru Rub. % of Rub. % of Rub. % of mil. GDP mil. GDP mil. GDP Including:

Funds transferred to budgets of other levels 0,00 10400,0 0,11 0,for implementation of state programs Measures of regional development Total: funds transferred 1,49 2,70 3,4 1,8 2,3 2,5 1,60 1,36 1,54 232695,2 2,56 275210,4 3,03 336697 2,to budgets of other levels Expenditures of the 1325688, 21,76 21,18 23,0 16,6 15,8 15,3 14,5 14,62 8,95 14,58 1947386 21,42 2345641 federal budget * As stipulated by the law on the federal budget for year 2003.

The factors behind the growing amount of funds transferred to subjects of the Russian Federation from the federal budget were increases in amounts of following budgetary items: subsidies for equalization of minimal budgetary security increased to 1.6 per cent of GDP, funds transferred in the course of mutual payments (including the funds assigned for compensation of additional expenditures of regional budgets because of decision taken by higher level authorities) and an increase in the balance of granted and repaid loans from the federal budget. At the same time, the growth in the amount of transfers from the Fund of Financial Support of Regions in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year was planned, while the amount of funds transferred in the process of mutual payments increased due to such factors as assignment of resources from the governmental reserve fund for liquidation of extraordinary situations and compensation of additional expenditures borne by regional authorities in relation to decisions taken by higher level authorities (this item includes transfers to the budgets of RF subjects aimed to rise wages and salaries financed from the budget and financing of other decisions of federal authorities generating growth in expenditures of sub-national budgets).

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