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Actual data 20 REM forecast ARIMA forecast jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 Fig. 24. Actual and predicted VAT revenues (Rub. billion) The mean relative error of the forecast of VAT revenues made 11.1 per cent for REM model and 10.4 per cent for ARIMA model. The low accuracy of forecasts about inflow of the respective revenues may be explained by the volatility of the series dynamics over the whole estimated interval (since January of 1999) with the exception of regular peaks of inflows occurring each December, what negatively affects the reliability of autoregressive evaluations.

Actual data REM forecast ARIMA forecast jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 Fig. 25. Actual and predicted income tax revenues (Rub. billion) INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRNSITION http://www.iet.ru The most accurate forecasts of inflows were obtained for the income tax. The mean relative error of the forecast of income tax revenues made 4.9 per cent for REM model and 5.8 per cent for ARIMA model.

On the whole, the low accuracy of the forecasts of tax revenues results from the intensive transformational processes underway in the Russian economy. Besides, changes in the tax legislation result in shifts in dynamics not only of the taxes directly affected by the respective legislative changes, but also impact the dynamics of revenues generated by other types of taxes.

2.3.2. Federal Budget for 2003 and Macroeconomic Forecast of Social and Economic Development of Russia Federal Budget for The key parameters of the federal budget for 2003 base on two versions of the forecast of social and economic development of Russia in 2003 and until 2005 - conservative (1) and optimistic (2). The parameters of the conservative (1) and optimistic (2) versions depend on the combination of external and internal factors.

An analysis of internal factors of economic development in the first six months of and shifts in the external business situation reveals that there is certain potential for more rapid restoration of favorable conditions and trends of growth in the Russian economy. According to the preliminary estimates of the RF Ministry of Trade and Economic Development, in 2002 GDP grew by 4.3 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.

The conservative forecast bases on the assumption of inertial development of the economy and persistence of factors and trends formed in 2001 and in January through June of 2002.

The optimistic forecast relied on more rapid rates of growth in the world economy and increasing influence of expanding external demand on the dynamics of growth in the Russias economy.

The key differences of forecasts are conditioned by the external environment of development. The decisive factor is the level and dynamics of world oil and natural gas prices: the conservative forecast envisages the average world oil price at US $ 18.5 per barrel and contract natural gas price at US $ 78.5 per 1000 cubic meters, while the optimistic forecast sets these indicators at US $ 21.5 and US $ 85.4 respectively. At the same time, both scenarios assume that rise in prices will positively affect the dynamics of oil and natural gas exports.

Both scenarios also relay on prompt repayment of the principal debt and unfaltering debt servicing.

The ratio between external and internal factors changes over time. While economic growth in 2002 based on the dynamic expansion of external demand for fuel and raw materials resources, in 2001 and early 2002 there was registered an intensive growth in internal demand generated by increasing household incomes and persisting investment activity.

In 2003, the outpacing rates of growth in the internal demand in comparison with the external demand were the dominating trend of changes in the structure of utilized GDP. The conservative forecast envisages, basing on the hypothesis that prices of hydrocarbon raw materials would decline relatively the figures registered in 2002, while dynamics of growth in RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks the world economy would be even, that falling export revenues become a factor checking rates of growth in the real sector of the Russian economy.

An analysis of major trends of development of the Russian economy over the last three years demonstrates that cardinal changes in the structure of investment in the real sector oriented towards a large scale modernization of fixed assets, increase in productivity of labor and competitiveness of domestic products on the internal and external markets is a key factor behind further economic growth. The substantive component of the estimates underlying the forecast for 2003 through 2005 was the assumption that this factor would be affecting economic development. In 2003, the rates of growth in GDP, taking into account external and internal factors and conditions of economic development, are envisaged to be at 3.5 per cent to 4.4 per cent depending on the version.

Due to the increasing share of funds assigned for the repayment of the public external debt, the structure of gross national savings will change. According to the forecast, in the share of investment in GDP will make 17.5 to 18.0 per cent as compared with 15.2 per cent registered in 2002. At this scope of savings, the increase in investment in fixed assets in 2003 is estimated to be at 6.3 per cent to 7.5 per cent. The practical implementation of these parameters of investment activities presupposes active shifts in the investment environment and improvement of legal, financial, and economic mechanisms of transformation of savings in investment.

Evaluating attainability of forecasted rates of investment activities, it shall be taken into account that the estimated decline in the share of profits in GDP from 17.6 per cent in 2001 to 12.3 per cent in 2002 will seriously affect the situation. Taking into account the persistence of traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries of oil and raw materials sectors and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals and accumulation of gross savings for the development of competitive components of the economy it may be hardly expected that radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital. The forecast for 2003 envisages that in the case rates of production and proceeds of enterprises decelerate, the current trends will persist. Due to limited own funds in the real sector of the economy and the lack of possibilities of long term borrowing, the situation provoking a shrinking of the domestic investment demand is reproduced in the Russias economy.

It is forecasted that in the case the present level of household incomes and expenditures is maintained and accompanied by a rise in consumer prices the trends towards growth in savings of the household sector will persist. According to the estimates, in 2003 the growth in real cash incomes will make 5 per cent to 5.8 per cent depending on the forecast version, while the share of poor households will decline from 27 per cent to 25.5 per cent. However, in spite of the forecasted trend towards a growth in real wages and salaries and increase in the share of pay to employees in the structure of GDP, real household incomes remain at 93 to per cent of the figures registered in the pre-crisis 1997.

The forecast relies on hypotheses about improving efficiency of the economy, for instance, it is assumed that power intensity of GDP would decline. At the given level of power intensity of production, the relatively slow development of the fuel and energy complex may become a considerable constraint on economic growth. At the forecasted rate of growth in output of industries manufacturing final products, the power intensity of GDP would decline 2 per cent to 3 per cent a year. It is urgent to pursue active energy conservation policies also because of the forecasted shift in the economic priorities in favor of modernization of production, development of manufacturing industries and sectors oriented towards services and in INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRNSITION http://www.iet.ru troduction of resource-saving technologies. However, a comparison of dynamics of investment in fixed assets and power availability per worker demonstrates that this factor will not have an impact on labor productivity dynamics in 2003.

Table Revenues as per budget laws and administration of the federal budget in 2002 and 2003 budget 2003 budget 2002 budget 2003 budget law in % of 2002 budget 2003 budget 2002 budget 2003 budget law in % of law, admin- law, admin- adminislaw law law law 2002 budget istered istered tered law law Rub. mil. % GDP % Tax revenues 1726310,1 1696137,4 1892363,7 15,8 15,5 14,5 92,0 93,Taxes on profit (income), 208452,9 173463,5 179550,5 1,9 1,6 1,4 72,3 86,capital gain Taxes on goods and services.

1000976,5 970976,9 1178971,2 9,1 8,9 9,0 98,8 101,License and registration fees.

VAT 773508 752654,6 946218,5 7,1 6,9 7,3 102,6 105,Excises 224815 214865,068 227708,8 2,1 2,0 1,7 85,0 88,Taxes on aggregate income 5677,6 6200,0 8478,4 0,1 0,1 0,1 125,3 114,Fees for use of natural re183715,7 214237,432 183129,5 1,7 2,0 1,4 83,6 71,sources Taxes on foreign trade and 324108,9 323368,946 335975,5 3,0 3,0 2,6 87,0 87,external economic operations Other taxes, duties, and 3378,5 6449,9 5418,6 0,0 0,1 0,0 134,6 70,charges Non-tax revenues 104284,2 150536,052 145721,8 1,0 1,4 1,1 117,2 81,Revenue from state and mu50472,5 76887,0 83158,8 0,5 0,7 0,6 138,2 90,nicipal property or activity Proceeds from the sale of land 290 1967,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,and intangible assets Administrative charges 804,1 670,0 1406,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 146,8 176,Penalties and indemnity 1691,4 1614,4 1353,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 67,1 70,Revenue from foreign eco47911,9 65558,9 55932,7 0,4 0,6 0,4 97,9 71,nomic operations Other non-tax revenue 3114,3 3838,5 3870 0,0 0,0 0,0 104,3 84,Fund of the RF Ministry of 13893,9 15129,8 14066,3 0,1 0,1 0,1 84,9 78,Atomic Energy Single social tax 281230 339461,0 365640 2,6 3,1 2,8 109,1 90,TOTAL REVENUE 2125718,2 2202139,4 2417791,8 19,4 20,1 18,5 95,4 92,According to the Finance Ministry estimates, the federal budget lost about Rub. 30 billion as a result of all changes introduced in the revenue section of the law on the federal budget for year 2003 as compared with targets of the budget law for 2002. It is planned to compensate for the budgetary losses by tightening tax administration, for instance, via reduction of the respective accumulated indebtedness and optimization of management of state owned property.

It is planned to generate about Rub. 23 billion at the expense of repaid tax indebtedness.

Besides, over Rub. 83 billion (more than 1.5 times above the target set by the budget for and by 8 per cent higher than expected) should be generated due to the enhancement of efficiency of management of all types of state owned property. The bulk of the increase (two thirds of the expected growth) should be generated at the expense of other operations relating to state reserves, which was included in the revenues of the federal budget in 2002.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Table Expenditures as per budget laws and administration of the federal budget in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 (in % of GDP) 1999 2000 2001 2002 Budget Admini- Budget Admini- Budget Admini- Budget Admini- Budget law * stration law ** stration law * stration law * stration law * State administration and local 0,34 0,31 0,37 0,34 0,53 0,46 0,52 0,51 0,government Judiciary 0,12 0,10 0,12 0,11 0,15 0,13 0,17 0,18 0,International activities 0,91 1,24 0,54 0,15 0,29 0,33 0,43 0,29 0,National defense 2,34 2,42 2,87 2,63 2,77 2,73 2,58 2,70 2,Law enforcement and state 1,28 1,17 1,53 1,44 1,70 1,64 1,52 1,74 1,security Basic research and promotion of scientific and technologic ad- 0,29 0,24 0,23 0,24 0,29 0,26 0,27 0,28 0,vance Industry, power engineering and 0,36 0,36 0,52 0,48 0,58 0,49 0,49 0,96 0,construction Agriculture and fisheries 0,23 0,19 0,21 0,18 0,27 0,26 0,20 0,25 0,Protection of the environment and natural resources, hydrome0,07 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,05 0,09 0,09 0,teorology, mapping and geodetic surveying Transportation, road maintenance, communications and 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 0,39 0,41 0,05 0,07 0,information technology Market infrastructure develop0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,ment Prevention and/or elimination of the effects of emergencies and 0,18 0,16 0,13 0,13 0,08 0,08 0,natural disasters Education 0,52 0,44 0,52 0,52 0,63 0,60 0,71 0,08 0,Culture, arts and cinematogra0,08 0,06 0,07 0,07 0,08 0,07 0,09 0,75 0,phy Mass media 0,05 0,04 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,09 0,09 0,Health and physical fitness 0,26 0,21 0,23 0,23 0,29 0,26 0,28 0,09 0,Social policy 1,05 1,03 0,91 0,93 1,39 1,24 3,71 0,29 0,Public debt servicing 4,17 3,42 2,58 3,53 3,09 2,56 2,65 4,43 1,Replenishment of state stocks 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,00 2,04 2,and reserves Financial aid to budgets of other 1,09 1,32 1,33 1,39 2,41 1,21 2,24 0,01 0,levels Utilization and liquidation of armaments, including under 0,04 0,08 0,00 0,05 0,08 0,03 0,09 2,91 5,international treaties Mobilization preparedness of 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,economy Military reform 0,07 0,07 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,03 0,Research and use of outer space 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,05 0,03 0,Other expenditures -0,24 -0,13 0,09 0,09 -0,05 0,07 -0,Road network 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,Targeted budgetary funds 1,10 1,18 1,33 1,34 0,18 0,16 0,TOTAL EXPENDITURE 14,38 13,99 13,89 14,09 15,40 13,21 17,* In per cent of target GDP.

** In per cent of actual GDP.

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