Table Main Indices of Economic Development in 2007-2011, as percentage to the corresponding period of the previous year Forecast (Innovative version 21) Indices 2009 2010 (estimation) GDP 108,1 107,8 106,7 106,6 106,Industrial production 106,3 105,2 106,0 105,8 105,103,3 103,8 103,9 104,1 104,Agriculture production Investments in fixed assets 121,1 116,5 114,5 113,3 110,Retail trade turnover 116,1 114,8 113,2 110,5 109,110,7 110,2 110,5 109,3 108,Real disposable population’s incomes Real wages 117,2 113,8 113,8 110,7 109,Goods export 116,9 148,3 96,6 99,0 101,Goods import 135,4 138,1 119,9 117,4 112,Consumer prices index, as December on 111,9 111,8 107,0-108,5 105,5-107 105-106,December, % 105,6 105,9 106,8 107,1 106,Labor productivity Source: Ministry for Economic Development and Trade In accordance with to the corrected version of the forecast edited by the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade and used as the basis for formation of the budget for the planning period of 2009-2011 the expected average price for oil will be equal to USD 112 per barrel, exceeding by more than two times the estimations made during elaboration of the budget for 2008. According to the estimations, foreign trade balance may reach USD 216.8 bln, exceeding by more than 1.7 times the figure There were two main versions (1 and 2) according to which the forecast of the socio-economic development and the forecast parameters for the period up to 2011 were developed. It is suggested that the second version, that is the innovation one, should be basic for the development of the federal budget parameters for 2009-2011.
Differences between the versions are mainly accounted for by the changes in the Russian business competitive ability and efficiency of the government’s measures aimed at the strengthening of the innovation nature of the Russian economy and its diversification.
of 2007. It should be noted that the forecast for 2009-2011 was made taking into account possible worsening of the conditions of hydrocarbons trade, which will result in the sharp decrease of the trade balance and reduction of the positive balance down to USD 20 bln.
There are considerable changes in the factors defining the economy growth envisaged within the forecast period. Decrease of the external factors influence reflects the trend for the slow-down of the export physical volumes growth rates to 2.1-3.6% over the forecast period. This will result in the decrease of the export proportion in the GDP from 30.8% to 20.7%. It is the internal factors that define the steadiness of the economic growth to larger extent. In this connection the influence of the investment climate and the government economic policy increases. The trend of the economic growth being at the level of 6-7% per year (the second, innovation forecast version) it is expected that the efficiency of the production factors use and competition in the economy will increase considerably, and the investment component in the economic growth will extend.
The existing trends have enabled raising the estimation for the investment growth by 4.6 percentage points in 2008. Besides the effect of the oil prices growth, investments growth acceleration is accounted for by the larger scale of construction, as well as the inflow of the investments in the private sector of the economy.
The estimation of the retail trade turnover fin 2008 went up by 3.7 per cent and the growth of consumer expenditures – by 1.1 per cent. The additional factor accounting for the growth of the consumer expenditures is the lower level of the unemployment, estimation for which in 2008 has decreased from 7.2% to 6.3%.
In 2008 internal demand in real terms will go up by 12.7%, and in 2009-2011 its increase will slowdown to 10.7-8.7% a year. The expansion of the internal demand will still be compensated by the import. The existing balance between the import and domestically produced goods at the internal market against the background of the slow-down of the ruble appreciation, increase in the technological competitive ability in the long run will result in the reduction of the import proportion in the structure of the sources compensating the increase in the internal demand from 48.7% in 2007 to 46.3% in and 33.5% in 2011.
In 2008–2011 the investment activity in the economy will sustain at the high level. The pronounced investment orientation of the second version of the forecast is accounted for by the fulfillment of a number of the investment projects and programs in oil- and gas production, power industry, transportation complex, housing construction, agriculture and processing industries, in the spheres of education and health care.
Table Investments in Fixed Assets Structure by Main Sectors of Economy (second innovation version, as percentage to the total) EstimaReal Forecast tion 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 100 100 100 100 100 Agriculture complex 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.Wood processing complex 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.Extractive sector 14.8 15.2 14.3 13.9 13.2 13.Metallurgy sector 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.Machine-building complex 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.Power industry sector 5.9 7.4 6.7 7.2 7.3 7.Chemistry, petrochemistry, construction materials 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.Trade 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.Transportation complex 18.3 17.5 17.3 17.1 17.2 16.Communications 5.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.Real Estate 16.9 17.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.General construction works 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.Health care, education, municipal and social ser8.0 7.6 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.vices Other 4.7 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.Source: Ministry for Economic Development and Trade The positive shifts in the investment structure are expected to occur in the medium-term in case the second version of the economic development is fulfilled. Thus, the concentration of the investment resources in the extractive and transportation sectors of the economy will decrease gradually, while the investments in fixed assets, power industry sector, housing construction, education, health care and social services will gradually rise. Taking into account the condition of the technical and technological production potential and the prominent role of the machinery and equipment import in the reproduction of the fixed assets, it is a reserved change of the investment structure towards machine-building that is worrying.
According to the second innovation version the high investments growth rates are supposed to maintain at the expense of the increase in the volume of funds, attracted by organizations and enterprises. Expansion of the loaned fund use will be accounted for by more active use of the bank capital and the funds of the development institution. By 2011 the financing of the investments in fixed assets at the expense of the banks’ funds, including the funds of Vhesheconombank and Rosselkhozbank, will increase from 9.4% in 2007 to 14.8% in 2011.
At the same time it is supposed that the means of the state budget for investments financing will also increase. In 2008 the share of the financial resources, allocated from the consolidated budget, will probably make 19.6% of all the investment sources, and by 2011 it will decrease because of the private business investment activity becoming more intensive.
Table Structure of Investments Sources (version 2, innovative), as percentage to the total forecast 2006 2007 2009 2010 Investments in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 100 100 of which from the own funds 44.3 44.4 42.9 42.1 41.9 41.including from the profit 20.2 19.9 19.8 20.1 19.9 19.amortization 21.3 21.2 20.8 19.6 19.8 19.from the own funds 55.7 55.6 57.1 57.9 58.1 58.banks’ credits 8.9 9.4 11.7 12.8 13.4 14.consolidated budget funds 18.8 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 18.other means 28.0 27.1 26.1 25.6 25.1 25.Source: Ministry for Economic Development and Trade In concordance with the list of the federal programs that are currently executed and the estimation of the financing volumes of the new programs that are being developed and necessary additional means to fulfill a number of measures according to the existing programs, investment expenses of the federal budget will increase from 2.2% in 2008 and 2.9% in 2009-2011.
Table Investment Expenses of Federal Budget, as percentage to the GDP 2007 2008 2009 2009 Total 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.Including:
State investments 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.Source: Ministry for Economic Development and Trade Investment expenses of the federal budget will more and more be of innovative nature and more than the half of the funds will be invested in the high-tech types of the industrial activities (aviation, cosmonautics, ship building and research and development complex.
Development of transportation and social infrastructure will be other priority directions of the government investments. There is more than 40% of total budgetary allotments for federal target programs that it is intended to direct to construction and reconstruction of railways, transport highways, objects of port infrastructure, airports. The share of funds allotted for the housing construction for some categories of citizens and social objects is forecast to be 12-15% of the total volume of expenditures for federal target programs in the medium term.
The achievement of the indices planned envisages increase in the efficiency of the production factors use. The reserves of labor efficiency increase in the economy both at the expense of the invest ments in the fixed assets and at the expense of organizational transformations and improvement of the corporate management will enable mitigating the expected reduction in the work force supply at the labor market. According to version 2 of the forecast the acceleration of labor efficiency is envisaged.
However the existing trend for anticipating growth of the wages as compared with the labor efficiency is maintained in the forecast. Besides, investments in the fixed assets increasing at faster rates, the problems of ratio of the fund-power-electronic equipment of the labor require more serious analysis in connection with the forecast process of energy saving.
Foreign Trade N. Volovik In the first half of 2008 the foreign trade statistics set all the new records – both import and export volumes and their growth rates reached the historical maximums. The Russian Government announced cancellation of the agreements with the WTO members that contradict the interests of the Russian Federation. This primarily concerns the agreements in the field of agriculture. The Government is giving more subsidies to the agriculture to substitute gradually the import goods with the domestically produced ones.
In June 2008 the Russian foreign trade turnover, calculated on the basis of the balance-of-payments methodology, was equal to USD 69.5 bln, which exceeded the corresponding figure of 2007 by 53.1%.
There were goods at the sum of USD 44.2 bln were supplied for the export, and this is 64.5% more than in June 2007. The value volume of import supplies was USD 25.3% bln, which exceeded the corresponding figure of the previous year by 36.2%.
The foreign trade balance in June 2008 was equal to USD 18.9 bln, which is by 2.2 times more than the corresponding figure of the previous year.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Balance Export Import Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of the Russian Federation Fig. 1 Main Indices of Russian Foreign Trade (USD bln) Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep The situation at the external market for the Russian exporters remains favorable. The average price for oil grade Brent was equal to USD 135.2 per barrel in June 2008, having increased by 92.8% as compared with June 2007 and by 13.3% as compared with May 2008. In June 2008 the average world price for oil grade Urals was equal to USD 127.8 per barrel and increased by 7.6% as compared with May 2008 and by 1.9 times as compared with June 2007.
In connection with the rising prices for oil at the world market the Government of the Russian Federation set the export duty rate for the crude oil at the level of USD 495.9 per ton. The duty rate established from 1 June of the current year was equal to USD 398.1 per ton. From August, 1st export duty rate for the light oil products was raised from USD 280.5 to USD 346.4 per ton, for dark oil products – from USD 151.1 to 186.6 per ton.
The drop of nickel prices continued in June. The interruption of production in Africa due to the irregular electricity supply and the growing demand for aircraft equipment in the world supported prices for aluminum. Copper exchange price in June 2008 remained at the level of more than USD 8000 per ton.
In June 2008 average world prices for copper at London Metal Exchange reduced by 1.5% as compared with May 2008, fro nickel – by 12.4%, for aluminum – increased – by 1.9%. As compared with June 2007 prices for aluminum and copper increased by 10.5%, while prices for nickel reduced by more than 1.8 times.
Table Average World Prices in June of the Corresponding Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oil (Brent), USD/bbl 18.28 13.83 15.99 29.41 27.14 24.66 27.06 35.2 53.9 68.3 70.13 135.Natural gas, USD/1 mln BTU 2.136 2.159 2.358 4.245 3.704 3.254 5.891 6.409 7.12 8.99 7.62 12.Petrol, USD/gallon 0.441 0.359 0.485 0.970 0.820 0.767 0.858 1.228 1.499 2.107 2.213 3.Copper, USD/ton 2543 1665 1552.1 1752.0 1615.3 1686 1703 2669 3524 7198 7469 Aluminum, USD/ ton 1575 1316 1327.3 1510.2 1467.7 1355 1410 1676 1731 2477 2672 Nickel, USD/ ton 7054.6 4540 5241 8384.3 6629.2 7110 8761 13322 16160 20755 41407 Source: calculated on the basis of the London Metal Exchange (Great Britain, London), International oil exchange (London).
In June 2008 the prices for wheat and rice continued to drop. Corn and sorghum became by far more expensive. Prices for vegetable oil, beef, poultry and tea increased at comparatively moderate rates.
Under the influence of the harvest growth in the current year and as a result of the lifting of export bans by a number of countries, prices for wheat continued to fall. According to the data of the International Grains Council, world harvest of wheat this year will reach 658 mln of tons, exceeding by mln of tons the harvest of the previous year. As compared with last year’s December the price for wheat has gone down by 26.2%, and as compared with the average price of 2007, price for wheat in June of the current year was higher by 6.7%.
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