WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     || 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |   ...   | 11 |
INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES August 2005 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2005 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru 1 Politico-Economical Developments of August 2005.............................................................................. 3 Budgetary and Fiscal Policy.................................................................................................................... 6 Monetary Policy in the Russian Federation............................................................................................. 9 Financial Markets.................................................................................................................................. 11 Efficiency of Banking Transactions in Quarter I of 2005..................................................................... 23 Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors........................................................................................... 26 Industrial Environment in August 2005................................................................................................ 29 Foreign trade......................................................................................................................................... 30 Dynamics of the output and productivity in the RF regions.................................................................. 33 Socio-Economic Outcome of the Reform of Manning System of the Military Organization of the Russian Federation................................................................................................................................ 36 Issues Considered at the Sessions of the RF Government of August 4 and 18..................................... 43 A Review of the Russian economic laws issued in August 2005.......................................................... Politico-Economical Developments of August 2005.

In agreement with the political tradition, August occurred not very fruitful on important political events. However, this time there was,an exception, and very important one. During the press conference following the results of Vladimir Putins visit to Finland, Finnish newsmen forced Putin to answer the question, if he would like to stay in power in 2008. It was a second time for 2005 that Vladimir Putin branched out into a long and cloudland discourse, such as: Maybe I would like to do so, but this is not in line with the countrys Constitution. In my opinion, the most important thing for all us today in Russia is the stability that may be achieved only basing on the current legislation and observing the constitutional provisions There is still sufficient amount of time till 2008 . An issue of Putins extension of his powers was time and again discussed earlier, even in 2000 2001 (for example, by S. Mironov), but was invariably disposed by Kremlin. In 2005 it is second time that maintenance of the present-day RF Constitution is disputed by Vladimir Putin. Its true that the majority of votes in the Lower House of Parliament (which is by half is formed by Putins appointees from the Upper House) is quite sufficient for introducing changes into the present Constitution on the third term of office, like in the case of A. Lukashenko, as well, other possibility is not excluded reforming the Constitutional Law, in order to concentrate powers on the post that is occupied by concrete person (variant of S. Miloshevich). It is indicative, which that an issue of Putins remaining in power in was intensively debated by the government TV-channels in the form of discussion of the initiatives of regional deputies, and also it was supported, for example, by the head of The Federation Council on Constitutional Legislation Yu. Sharandin. A respective analytical report was issued, signed by the chief strategist at Alfa Bank, Chris Weafer, wherein an opinion was provided that the threat for 0the investment climate in Russia was coming to power of political opposition, and Putins remaining in power in 2008 desirable. In fact, one may state that in August 2005 there began serious debates in the governmental authorities concerning conclusive dismantling of the constitutional system and lifelong presidency of Vladimir Putin.

It is too early to talk of the perspectives of such scenario. It is evident that they are inversely proportional to the fleshly strength and electoral popularity of opposition, disconnection in overwhelming majority of the ruling elite, and are associated with maintenance of the present-day state of affairs in the mineral sector of economy. In parallel with that, for bigger effectiveness this scenario must be implemented all at once and closer to the election campaign of 2008, so that his opponents could not make system-based arrangements to exclude his election. In case problems arise, a variant still exists of an appointment of his successor, and the potential challengers will tend to do just this way.

It is amazing how peacefully the RF government considered and almost unanimously endorsed the draft budget for 2006. According to expectations, the budget surplus will make no less than 6% of GDP. The 2006 budget provides growth of expenditures, versus the plan for this year, by 40% and almost by one quarter in comparison with the actual execution of the last year budget. Plus, the minister of finance, A. Kudrin, announced that next budget will be social: If earlier the government boosted the expenditures on security officials, next year the focus moves to social expenditures.

Though, the expenditures on power structures also were not shortened, but grew more than by 20%.

Growth of expenditures on the Housing and utilities sector (HUS) more than 2.5 times (here it is meant co-financing of private investment in the reform of HUS) - is also in the plans of the government. On the whole, the share of social expenditures in the total expenditures of the budget was left at the level of 14%, for defense and security - 28% (slightly less than the last year record indicator - 30,5%).

Public investments have been increased to Rb 349 bn for Federal Target Programs, and Rb 307 bn for Federal Targeted Investment Programs (FTIP). In parallel with that more than Rb 120 bn are not allocated for and, in fact, are the means for provision of political support on the part of the ruling party Single Russia (not long ago the Government had already found over Rb 200 bn, raising an estimate of the cost of oil, which, though, which price, as before, by a quarter is behind its market value).

In April, Vladimir Putin stated that it was outlawed according to the Constitution to be in office for the third term in succession.

Not improbable that because of great amount of fiscal revenues from the mineral sector of economy this year will see changing of the accustomed scheme of budget approval in the second and third reading almo8st without changes and without participation of the majority of edinorossov (excluding the leadership of V. Rezniks faction), those additional revenues can be divided among themselves also a number of simple deputies of the ruling party.

Also interesting are chances of recreated investment fund for 9which had been allocated almost Rb 70 bn. In fact, it is entirely under normative regulation of the government, as no project or criterion is indicated for which it could be spent. However, there has appeared one candidate for those means the company Russky Aluminium headed by O. Deripaska, which plans to finish building of Boguchanskaya hydroelectric power plant (in combination with RAO UES Russia) and to build a new aluminum plant in Krasnoyarsk Krai. In August O. Deripaska had an appointment with V. Putin. All experts agree that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia primarily will have to consider those and other projects of Russky Aluminium lobbied by I. Sechin.

In the beginning of September Vladimir Putin gave a TV interview concerning public expenditures.

He warned that we should not start construction projects that will not be completed for tenths years, as in changing of the state of affairs it will be necessary either again to get into debts, in order to finish the started projects, or suddenly and painfully to curtail expenditures. So, in his opinion, its better to concentrate on priority national projects which determine the quality of life of people and social health of society. Such projects must become health care, education and housing (in comparison with the two-year-old remoteness tasks, military reform and Kaliningrad are omitted). Putin promised to equip with new diagnostic equipment more than 10 000 municipal polyclinics, to raise the salaries of doctors by Rb 10 000, and sisters - by Rb 5000, to renovate motor-vehicle pool of Ambulance and make four times easier the process of high-technology medical aid, having constructed the centers of high medical technologies in remote regions of the country. In addition, to connect to Internet no less than half of Russian schools in 2008, -to build new universities in the South and Siberian federal okrugs, to open in capitals business schools, the average pay of qualified research officers to boost to Rb 30 000, etc.

Thus formulated purposes look in two ways. On the one hand, they, without doubt, are more objective, than formerly formulated by V. Putin and M. Fradkov goals of duplication of GDP and pensions, and triplication of gas production. On the other hand, it is not yet seen in the budget yet the list of such good deeds let alone the fact that the date for their fulfillment is not quite clear. In any case, the voters received rather a distinct guiding line of the work of the Government for both an immediate time and for a period until 2008. Few observers turned their attention to actual failure of alleviation of taxes (as far back as in 2004 such intentions were considered as lowering VAT to 13%, single social tax and other taxes, A. Kudrin stated that high oil prices enable to reduce in 2006-2008 the tax burden for Rb 500 bn - Rb 150-200 bn every year). In fact, they refused to finance large infrastructure projects, such as modernization of the system of long distance pipe lines, and concentrated on large-scale but diffused investments into human assets. Rather evident appear the political background of what is taking place concentration of powers on inexpensive concrete business. it is true, that taking into account the level of Russian corruption, it is impossible to exclude that connection of schools to Internet may turn a regular and infinite program, like gasification or electrical Russia, which existed chiefly on the screen of TV.

In August Russian powers took some steps in the institutional sphere. Thus, The RF Government discussed the tax amnesty bill, prepared by the RF Ministry of Finance. As expected, it had a declarative character. The question was about an amnesty for paying the income tax upon condition of paying 13% and placement of funds in Russian banks. Therefore, amnesty set aside not only enterprises, but also dodgers trying to evade paying the single social tax (convert, insurance scheme). The bill is instructed to complete. But, it is evident (taking in account, for example, summer resolutions of RF Constitutional Court) that no real security assurances is planned to be given to taxpayers, as it could curb the powers of the executive officials. The same is true for well-publicized abolishment of schemes of collecting taxes, replaced with the so-called budget guidelines.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the RF published instructions in association with the adopted amendments to the law On militia, which deprived officers of this department of their right to secure for an indefinite period the property and cash register and regulate the procedures of provision of the copies of documents withdrawn on examination, that set up the accounting forms of employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in auditing etc. though such a measure could be effective fife years ago, in conditions of relatively independent judicial service. Right now the power agencies can securely act with sanction of the court qualification boards quickly taught judges to satisfy such demands.

On the other hand, quite seriously look the statement of the RF minister of defense S. Ivanov on absence of intentions of drawing to the color of students. Though, it is symbolic that he missaid about arbitrary measures of 2008. It should be said that after agitation of the winter of 2005 associated with monetization of benefits, the idea of students drawing to the color unexpectively lost its popularity with the power, although, even a year ago overall students drawing spread for about half a year. S.

Ivanov never denied, and otherwise confirmed those plans, excusing himself by future decreasing of service life to one year. But now it turns out that besides of an increase of social obligations of the state as a result of outcries, the poor indirectly defended the studentship from trailblazing experiments of the power.

In politics major events were associated with M.B. Khodorkovsky. Awaiting consideration of consideration of a cassation appeal, he wrote an article that predicted left turn of Russian policy (which is evident, as it is, by the example of the state budget), and considerably miffed the powers by that, and then proposed himself as a candidate at by-election in Universitetsky okrug of Moscow. The reaction to such a step was ambiguous even among liberals many said that after probable entry of Khodorkovskys judgment into legal force in late October he will be denied in registration. But, nonetheless, up until now he has a good chance to conduct an election campaign and, not improbable, even to win, if a doubler his relative is up for the election. This could greatly harm the reputation of the power, and could force the power to check up, in a bright public atmosphere, the assumptions about mass ballot-box stuffing, that is allegedly being prepared, through the so-called electronic voting. It should be said, to the point, that all official parties from KPRF to SPS and Yabloko lost courage, for some reason, to support an obvious symbol of opposition to the regime. In any case, drawing of attention to himself becomes also for Khodorkovsky a guarantee of own survival.

Pages:     || 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |   ...   | 11 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .