The share of gross revenues of the economy in GDP decreased by 1.1 p.p. in comparison with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2001, while the share of wages and salaries increased by 2.5 p.p. This trend formed at the background of falling labor productivity resulted in the shrinking internal investment resources of enterprises. The balance of proceeds remaining at the disposal of enterprises accounted for the financing of 21.6 % of investment in fixed assets, what is by 2.5 p.p. less than in the respective period of the preceding year. This May, the amount of enterprises’ borrowings decreased by 0.3 %, while in 2001, the average rate of increase in enterprises’ borrowings made 2.6 % a month. The deceleration of investing activity was also determined by the lack of sectoral shifts. Shrinking investment demand on the part of export-oriented fuel and raw materials industries determined by falling export revenues negatively affected the character of business activity in the investment complex. As a result, in January through July of 2002, investments in fixed assets grew only by 2.6 % as compared with 7.3 % registered in the respective period of the preceding year. According to the estimates of the Ministry for Economic Development, in 2002 the total investment grew by 4.5 % in comparison with figures observed in the preceding year. On the whole, at present production is developing rather intensively and there is no reason to expect that its rates of growth will decelerate in the last six months of 2002.
O. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry The growth in cash sales observed for the second month running has revived the Russia’s industry. The rates of growth in production have been restored, the rates of decline in real profits decelerated, enterprises have started to purchase machinery and equipment.
ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПЛАТЕЖЕСПОСОБНОГО, БАРТЕРНОГО И % ДРУГ ИХ ВИДОВ СПРОСА (БАЛАНС=%РОСТ%СНИЖЕНИЕ)ЕЖЕСПОСОБНЫЙ:ФАКТ, ПРОГ НОЗ ПЛАТ ---БАРТЕРНЫЙ: ФАКТ, ПРОГ НОЗ -ДРУГИЕ НЕДЕНЕЖНЫЕ: ФАКТ, ПРОГНОЗ -7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/EFFECTIVE, BARTER, AND OTHER FORMS OF DEMAND TRENDS (BALANCE = UP – DOWN) EFFECTIVE: REPORTED, EXPECTED BARTER: REPORTED, EXPECTED OTHER NON-CASH: REPORTED, EXPECTED In August, the growth in effective demand for manufactured goods was at the level registered in July.
Therefore, the second month running the Russia’s industry demonstrated a growth in cash sales. A decline in cash sales was registered only in power engineering, light and food industries, while the growth was most intensive in ferrous metallurgy and forestry complex. The growth in normal sales allowed enterprises to stop the increase in promissory note and offset deals. At the moment, these operations decline across all industries with the exception of metallurgy, chemistry, and petro-chemistry. Two months ago, surveys registered an absolute increase in promissory note and offset transactions, which was more intense than in all other types of deals. At the same time, in August the intensity of decline in barter after the stabilization registered in April through July was by 3 p.p. less. Therefore, the general amount of barter transactions diminishes more slowly than some months ago. Moreover, the rate of decline in this indicator registered in August was the slowest since April of 1999, when the amount of normal transactions started to rise for the first time since the default and enterprises began to diminished the amount of direct barter operations. However, enterprises could retain a high share of cash sales in 2002 (see Figure). At present, almost 80 % of manufactured good are paid for in cash and only 20 % of sales involve barter operations, promissory notes, and offsets.
ДОЛИ РАСЧЕТОВ ПРИ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ПРОДУКЦИ ДЕНЬГАМИ ВЕКСЕЛЯМИ И ЗАЧЕТАМИ БАРТЕРОМ 01.96 01.97 01.98 01.99 01.00 01.01 01.SHARES OF SALES CASH PROMISSORY NOTES AND OFFSETS BARTER The increasing effective demand resulted in the “recovery” of production. In August, the balance of change in output increased to 28 points. Such an intensive growth has not been observed since the autumn of 2001. At the moment, responses indicating a decline in output prevail (due to the seasonal factors) only in power engineering. Other industries managed to accelerate rates of growth in output in June through August.
The increase in production did not result in growing stocks of finished goods. In August, the balance of estimates of stocks decreased by 4 points but retained positive values – enterprises still prefer to have finished goods at warehouses in order to be ready to ship them immediately to new customers. In August, a shortage of stocks was registered only in non-ferrous metallurgy, forestry complex, and construction industry.
The growth in demand has also positively affected the dynamics of real profits of enterprises. In August, the intensity of decline in this indicator was most moderate in 2002. An absolute increase in profits has been registered only in non-ferrous metallurgy and construction yet.
The investment activity of enterprises has also improved. For the first time in 2002, in the Russia’s industry there has been registered a growth (only very slight yet) in purchases of machinery and equipment. Earlier, in the 1st and 2nd quarters, enterprises more often reported on declines in purchases of both imported and domestic equipment.
Estimates of changes in effective demand were stable over the last four months. Enterprises across all industries with the exception of construction materials, chemistry, and petro-chemistry expect an increase in sales. The most optimistic forecasts were registered in power engineering and ferrous metallurgy. It is likely that the amount of barter transactions in the Russia’s economy will decrease in the following few months. The recovery of growth in normal sales allowed enterprises to revise their plans with regard to barter. While in July the aggregate forecast demonstrated that enterprises were ready to stop the decline in barter, in August the balance of forecasts returned to the previous level of moderate decrease in direct goods-for-goods operations.
As concerns estimates of promissory note and offset deals, they show that enterprises are ready to increase such operations, or maintain their current amounts. Only mechanical engineering, forestry complex, and construction industry the intentions to considerably decrease the amount of such operations clearly prevail.
As concerns the plans with regard to changes in output in August, they remained the same. The Russia’s industrial sector at large and enterprises across practically all industries expected a rather intensive growth in output. Forecasts of reduction of output prevailed only in non-ferrous metallurgy, construction and light industries.
In the 3rd quarter, enterprises’ investment plans changed to the better. In the few next months, enterprises (mainly in ferrous metallurgy, power engineering, and light industry) intend to intensify purchases of domestic machinery and equipment. Answers indicating plans to reduce purchases prevail only in non-ferrous metallurgy and construction industry. It is possible that in the 4th quarter enterprises will purchase a little more imported machinery. Such plans exist in power engineering, chemistry, petro-chemistry, and light industry.
S. Tsukhlo Agri-Industrial Sector in the first half-year of In 2002, the agricultural production continues to grow. While in 2001 experts explained the growth in the agrarian sector by favorable weather conditions resulting in respective surge of crop production, the dynamics observed in 2002 demonstrate that the recovery of agriculture is related rather to internal processes of restructuring and the improvement of the general economic situation of the country than weather conditions. At present, there is no doubt that the agrarian sector demonstrates sustainable growth.
In the first six months of the year the agricultural production increased by 4 % in comparison with a 2.3 % growth registered in 2001. Due to the seasonal specifics of agriculture, the dynamics of livestock sector determined the growth in the first half-year. Indeed, since the beginning of the year, the production of major types of livestock produce has significantly increased. As concerns crop produce, the annual dynamics will be determined by the production of grain. This year, the gross yield of cereals will be only slightly below the last year figures. Therefore, even now the annual rate of growth in the sector may be estimated at about 4 %.
This figure is below the average rate of growth in the last three years, however, if this rate of growth is maintained for next 3 to 4 years, Russia will recover the gross volume of production of agriculture registered in the pre-reform period.
Agriculture growths mainly due to intensive factors: yields and productivity. Volumes of produce have grown, although the area of farm lands remained practically the same, while the livestock population continued to decline.
In spite of the forecasted sharp downfall in gross yield of grain (down to 72 to 77 million metric tons), the actual yield in Russia will be at about 85 million metric tons. No major expert center could foresee such a high yield in the current year, therefore this unexpected result had a strong negative impact on the market.
Market agents were not ready for this development, while the government has no time to render urgent aid.
The aggregate supply of grain (taking into account the stocks of grain accumulated in the preceding years) will exceed 100 million metric tons, i.e. will be 15 to 20 million metric tons above the domestic demand. The fact that the export of grain is limited (this year grain exports were only slightly above 5 million metric tons) resulted in a sharp downfall of prices and diminishing areas under winter crops for the next year (by August, only 60 % of the last year’s level). Grain producers curtail supply in answer to the price drop. In other words, due to the absence of futures trade, supply is still determined by the extremist reaction of producers: a 15 % to 20 % of overproduction results in a 40 % decline in supply, even in spite of the fact that the yields in the North America and some Latin American countries were rather poor and grain prices on world markets are expected to rise in the medium term outlook.
The quota auctions for unrefined sugar held for the second year running failed to reverse the situation as concerns sugar beet production – the areas sown with sugar beet continue to stagnate, while Russia continues to process imported unrefined sugar in volumes more than 1.5 times exceeding the pre-reform levels.
Agricultural enterprises account for the growth in meat production: the supply of meat and poultry increased by 11.7 %. Large enterprises increase the production of pork (9.6 %) and poultry (15 %).
The private sector accounts for the bulk of growth in production of milk (large enterprises increased milk production only by 1.3 %). The rising unemployment in rural areas forces the population to seek incomes by developing personal subsidiary plots, therefore milk production became a most common occupation in rural areas. Everywhere, regional authorities encourage this type of self-employment, even in such regions of intensive milk production as the Vologda oblast, while it, firstly, creates competition for intensive producers of milk, and, secondly, may result in the problem of the deficit of quality milk for processing.
Food industry continues to intensify the rates of production, what is especially noticeable in the meat and milk sector. A sharp increase in production of protein and vitamin admixtures is an evidence of the beginning of intensification in the livestock sector: producers started to use efficient nutrition schemes.
At the same time, the rates of growth in food and processing industries noticeably outpace the rates of growth in the primary agricultural production, what is an evidence of the persisting orientation towards imported raw materials. In May of 2002, the pre-crisis level of food imports (1998) was recovered. The rate of growth of production in industries producing base resources for the agrarian sector has slowed down, investments in agriculture have practically stopped to grow. The purchasing prices of staple agricultural produce are going down even in nominal terms at the background of increasing output, what results in deterioration of the financial standing of agricultural producers. All this development render the further growth in the sector very problematic.
The state agrarian policy significantly changed in 2002. Firstly, there was approved the law on the turnover of farm lands, which, according to our estimates, would further aggravate the problem of investment in agriculture. On the other hand, there was started the program for the subsidizing of interest rates on medium term credits, what should stimulate the investment process. There persists the trend towards the use of technical barriers for food imports at the background of the very low average import tariff. The new state commercial structures in the agri-industrial sector (Rosselkhozbank, Rosagrolizing, the Federal Agency for the Regulation of the agri-food market) demonstrate their ineffectiveness, what permits to hope that they will be liquidated in the near future.
Regional agrarian programs become more oriented to the market, interregional trade barriers are lifted, and regions strive to support their staple sectors on the Russia’s market.
Ye. Serova Foreign Trade In June of 2002, the Russia’s foreign trade turnover decreased by 6.2 % in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year and made US $ 12.97 billion. This indicator remained practically the same as in the preceding period. The amount of exports in June made US $ 8.17 billion, what is 11.8 % below the respective level registered in the preceding year. Imports grew by 2.1 % and made US $ 4.8 billion. The active balance of trade decreased to US $ 3.37 billion as compared with US $ 4.6 billion registered last June.
In the first six months of 2002, the Russia’s foreign trade turnover made US $ 74.9 billion, what is 2.6 % below the level observed in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, exports fell by %, while imports grew by almost 9 %.
Fig. 1. Main indicators of Russia’s foreign trade (in USD bln.) -1997 г. 1998 г. 1999 г. 2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г.
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