WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     || 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES August 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru 2 On the progress of reforms in July through August of 2002 As the Dumas deputies went for the summer vacations, the government remained the only motor of reforms. The White House was the place, where major events (although less numerous than in June) took place in July and August.

The President, who vetoed the law on bankruptcy approved by the Duma and presented a number of principal amendments to the text of the law, added some variety in this picture. It is very probable that the amendments will be approved in the beginning of the autumn session.

In August, after two months of adjustment, discussion, and elaboration the government signed resolution No. 1148-r (on August 20, 2002), which approved the governmental action plan for the second half-year (more exactly, the months remaining until the end of the year). The plan was elaborated taking into account the principles stated in the Presidential address to the Federal Assembly. Although some items were excluded from the draft, the key measures were retained.

For instance, the action plan retained the elaboration of a law on special economic zones in spite of the sharp criticism on the part of the Finance Ministry. The Ministry for Economic Development could persuade A. L. Kudrin (Vice Prime Minister), that it is principal to work out such a law; however, the dates for its presentation to the government, and, respectively, the State Duma were delayed.

Since the Finance Ministry took the principal stand with regard to the minimal social standards, the respective item requiring to work out such standards was removed from the action plan for 2002. At the meeting of the government presided by M. M. Kasyanov, which took place on July 22, it was decided to delay the presentation of the draft of the new concept of the respective federal law until January of 2003.

In July and August, a number of decision was taken in the framework of execution of the preceding (March governmental resolution No. 933-r) action plan.

On July 31, the Ministry for Industry and Science submitted to the government a draft resolution On key guidelines for the restructuring of sectoral research and development institutes aimed to improve the efficiency of utilization of budgetary funds assigned for the support of science.

On July 24, there was adopted federal law No. 104 FZ (amendments to the second section of the Tax Code), which established a simplified system of taxation of small businesses. The approval of these amendments should significantly diminish the costs borne by small enterprises in relation to the necessity to carry out cumbersome accounting and employ professional accountants.

Also on July 24, the President signed the federal law On turnover of farm lands, which established the right of private ownership of farming land. The law should significantly improve the investment attractiveness of Russias agricultural sector.

On July 19, the RF government approved the package of measures aimed at the implementation of state policy with regard to the development of local government.

To a certain extent, the draft federal budget for 2003 submitted by the government to the State Duma also may be considered as a reform. The draft budget consistently implements all the principles of budgetary policy the government stated in its long and medium term programs and fixed in the Budget Code. Practically all experts unanimously agree that the budget is feasible, moreover, all its parameters had been many times discussed with representatives of the State Duma, what is also a revolutionary development.

O. Fomichev The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, the federal budget in January through July of 2002 was executed as follows: revenues Rb. 1201.3 billion, expenditures (actual financing) Rb.

1075.8.

The data on the execution of the federal budget up to June of 2002 are presented in Table 11 and 2. As of July 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal budget accounted for 20.5 % of GDP, including tax revenues at 19. Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

%, while expenditures made 17.2 % of GDP (18.9 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding2), including noninterest ones 14.8 % of GDP (16.5 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 3.4 % of GDP (1.6 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP, in comparable prices).

V`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,6% 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,3% 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,7% 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% Total- taxes and charges 2,5% 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% Non- tax revenues 3,9% 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% Revenues, total 0,7% 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% Expenditure 16,6% 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% Public administration 1,3% 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% National defense 17,8% 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,5% International activities Judicial power 0,4% 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 2,7% 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% Fundamental research 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Services provided for the national economy 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 1,4% 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% Servicing of public debt 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 0,8% 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% Expenditure, total 2,0% 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,1% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,3% 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% Budget deficit (-) 14,2% 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% Domestic financing 3,7% 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% Other taxes, duties and payments -1,7% -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% Total- taxes and charges -2,0% -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% Non- tax revenues -3,7% -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing) I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`Total 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,8% 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9% 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,7% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the national 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% economy Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 3,2% 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 2,5% 2,7% 3,3% 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% Total expenditure 15,3% 18,3% 17,2% 16,4% 16,2% 16,2% 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% (+) / (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,7% 1,6% 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 2 The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through June of 2002 somewhat declined as compared with the figures registered in January through March. The tax revenues in January through June of made 15.8 % of GDP (without the single social tax). The arrears of general revenues administered by the Tax Ministry made Rb. 37.1 billion in the first seven months of 2002 (including Rb. 9.2 billion in the 1st quarter, Rb. 27.1 billion in the 2nd quarter, and Rb. 0.8 billion in June).

The expenditures for the servicing of the public debt in January through June of 2002 made 2.4 % of GDP.

As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures in the first six months of 2002 made 18.9 % of GDP.

As of August 1l, according to the preliminary estimates, the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) grew up by Rb. 47 bln.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 240,9% 218,0% 283,4% The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 14. In June, there was registered a decrease in tax revenue arrears of the federal budget, relating to both profit tax and VAT.

1. ( % 1999 ) 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 3 It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

4 Since 2001 the form of the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Taxes Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditur 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% es Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Taxes 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Revenues 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Expendit ures 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% Deficit I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Taxes 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Revenues 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Expendit ures 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% Deficit I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Taxes 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Revenues 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Expendit ures 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% Deficit I II III IV V VI 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% Taxes 25,9% 32,9% Revenues 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 18,3% Expendit ures 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 14,6% Deficit 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% * The level of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in January through June of 2002 somewhat decreased in comparison to the first five-month indicators. The surplus of the consolidated budget was by 0.6 % below the level of GDP registered in the preceding year.

The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the table5. The estimate was revised as compared to the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

( ) ( ) ARIMA 6652 26,0% 15,3% 4,7% 1,8% 3,3% 6,9% 7623 26,1% 15,0% 4,9% 1,9% 3,2% 6,8% 8603 25,7% 14,6% 4,7% 1,8% 3,2% 6,8% REM 6652 26,0% 15,6% 4,9% 1,8% 3,2% 6,9% 7623 25,5% 15,3% 4,8% 1,8% 3,1% 6,9% 8603 24,7% 15,2% 4,6% 1,7% 3,1% 6,7% S. Batkibekov For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

Monetary Policy According to the State Committee for Statistics of the RF, in July the consumer price index was up 0.percent. In analyzing the commodity structure, it is important to note the seasonal decline in prices for fruit and vegetables: the prices were down 3.1 percent. Price reduction for vegetables proper averaged 11 percent.

The service prices index increased 1.8 percent.

Prices for housing and communal services continue to grow substantially: the August increase is 2.percent, or up 49.3 percent from July 2001 and up 31.2 percent from December 2001. Prices for non-foods were up 0.6 percent.

Pages:     || 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .