points roubles, billion 02.05.22.05.08.06.28.06.17.07.06.08.23.08.11.09.28.09.17.10.06.11.23.11.12.12.09.01.28.01.14.02.05.03.25.03.11.04.30.04.21.05.07.06.27.06.16.07.LUKoil Tatneft Rosneft Gazprom Mosenergo Rostelecom Gazprom neft GMK NotNikel Surgutneftegas Sberbank of Russia In July the group of leaders in terms of turnover in the MICEX was composed from the following companies: Gazprom (31.29% of the total turnover), Sberbank of Russia (16.36%), LUKOIL (15.34%), Mining and Metallurgical Company Nornickel (14.64%) and Rosneft (5.67%). The total share of operations with shares of these five blue chips was equal to approximately 83.30% (of all the blue chips – 88.97%) of the total shares turnover at the MICEX stocks market in the period from 28 June to 27 July.
According to MICEX data, as of 27 July the top-five list of leaders in terms of capitalization is as follows:
Gazprom – RUR 8 153.39 bln, Rosneft – RUR 2 673.87 bln, LUKOIL – RUR 2 069.10 bln, Sberbank of Russia – RUR 1 690.69 bln, Mining and Metallurgical Company Nornickel – RUR 1 189.58 bln.
Futures market In July 2008 the activity of the investors at the MICEX futures market considerably increased (by 30%) as compared with the previous month, the number of deals decreasing by more than 5%. Thus, over June the total turnover of futures market at the MICEX made about RUR 259.80 bln (644 deals, 10.92 mln contracts) against approximately RUR 200.0 bln (683 deals, 8.26 mln contracts) in June. There were futures RUR/USD that, the same as a month before, were characterized by the biggest number of auctions – RUR 256.0 bln (390 deals, 10.89 mln contracts). A significant drop in the number of deals at the MICEX futures market in July was mainly connected with the reduction in the number of futures deals in the MICEX index (by more than 35% as compared with the previous month).
The situation at the RTS FORTS market was similar – there investors’ activity in July increased but slightly (about 1%) as compared with the previous month. Thus, over the period from 28 June to 27 July the total futures and options market turnover in the RTS was about RUR 1273.48 bln (2217 thousand deals, 23.mln contracts) against about RUR 1261.10 bln (2080 thousand deals, 25.2 mln contracts) in June. There were futures that were in the biggest demand, the same as earlier – the volume of auctions totaled RUR 1044.04 bln (2148 thousand deals and 16.5 mln contracts) over the period concerned. Options were in by far less demand, the volume of auctions being about RUR 229.4 bln (69 thousand deals and 7.10 mln contracts).
In July the maximum daily auction turnover at the RTS market was RUR 85.15 bln (1 July), and minimum – RUR 41.25 bln (7 July).
The volume of biddings with “Shares of power and electricity industry companies” futures with execution on 15 December 2008, directed to support liquidity of power and electricity industry companies after the stop of RAO EES biddings at the exchange on 6 June, was equal to RUR 283.31 mln in July (529 deals and 11 thousand contracts).
Corporate Bond Market 122,ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp120,118,116,114,112,110,108,Fig. 5 Dynamics of corporate bond indices On the whole in July there was the bearish dynamics of traded issuances at the market of corporate debt observed. Thus, during the month investors’ activity at the market demonstrated a considerable drop (aver02.04.20.04.14.05.01.06.22.06.12.07.01.08.21.08.10.09.28.09.18.10.08.11.220.127.116.11.16.01.06.02.27.02.19.03.08.04.04.05.23.05.16.06.07.07.25.07.age daily turnover decreasing by more than 4.5 times as compared with the previous month). The amount of the issuances placed went up by 13% in July as compared with the previous month.
From 21 June to 25 July the price index of corporate bonds, the price index of corporate bonds traded at the MICEX10, reduced by 0.63 points (by 0.57%), as well as the index of the top-ten liquid corporate sector bonds, which decreased by 1.20 points (by 1.03%) (fig. 5). Over the period, the total turnover of MICEX corporate bonds section was about RUR 77.34 bln, average daily turnover being at the level of RUR 3.09 bln (about RUR 250.75 bln, average daily turnover being at the level of RUR 14.75bln in June), which testifies a considerable drop in the investors’ activity in July.
External Factors Effecting the Russian Stock Market In July the dynamics of the Russian financial market was defined by the situation at the world financial market. The drop at the shares market and the decrease in indices value also are to be noted – they are the reflection of negative situation at the external markets, connected also with the sharp drop of share of two leading hypothecary agencies - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, crisis situation in one of the biggest USA banks- IndyMac, as well as new assets write-off by the biggest financial institutions. Even positive news against the background of good financial results of the top-three USA banks did not change the situation to the better. Diversified dynamics was observed at the world goods market as a result of considerable fluctuations in oil prices, which set a new historical record of more than USD 146 per barrel in the first half of the month (more than USD 147during biddings). It was the increase in tension around Iran conducting its nuclear program that caused negative reaction of the USA and also contributed into prices for oil increase.
Sharp drop of prices for oil in the second half of the month was the result of demand decrease due to the slow-down of the USA economic growth, which once again demonstrated strong dependence of the market on the situation in the USA economy. All these factors resulted in the drop in the major world financial indices. Thus, in July there was a significant reduction in the majority of the world indices both as compared with the data at the beginning of 2008 and with the values at the end of June 2008. Whereas USA and European markets in July fell in general by 0.5-3%, markets in the developing countries were characterized by higher extent of drop – by 3-11%. The bearish trend was clearly seen against the background of the decrease in the main Russian stock indices, which reduced by more than 15% over June (see table 1 and fig. 6).
Table Global Stock Market Indices Trends (as of July 27, 2008) Change per month Change since year Code Value (%)* beginning (%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1487.10 -15.79 -21.RTS (Russia) RTSI 1951.29 -15.84 -14.Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) DJI 11370.69 0.21 -14.NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2310.53 -0.22 -12.S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1257.76 -1.61 -14.FTSE 100 (Great Britain) FTSE 5352.60 -3.21 -17.DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 6436.71 0.23 -20.CAC-40 (France) CAC 4377.18 -0.46 -22.Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 7015.03 2.24 -20.Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 13334.76 -1.55 -12.Bovespa (Brazil) BUSP 57199.14 -11.07 -10.IPC (Mexico) IPC 27084.77 -7.54 -8.IPSA (Chile) IPSA 2922.07 -3.41 -4.Straits Times (Singapore) STI 2922.91 -1.12 -16.Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1597.93 -5.14 -15.ISE National-100 (Turkey) XU100 37556.95 4.82 -32.Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index EFM 834.233 -5.45 -16.* On indices value as of June 27, The calculations were based on the corporate bond indices traded in the MOCEX and calculated by Zenit Bank.
130,0% Dow Jones Industrial Average 125,0% NASDAQ Composite The MICEX Index The RTS Index 120,0% 115,0% 110,0% 105,0% 100,0% 95,0% 90,0% 85,0% Fig. 6 Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.05.2007) Corporate News OJSC Gazprom On July 4, 2008 the construction of the first drilling platform for Shtockman oil field was started. And on July 15, 2008 the joint enterprise of OJSC Gazprom and Wintershall Holding AG, CJSC Achimgas, put into commission 1A area of Achim deposits of Urengoi gas-oil-condensate field in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area.
On July 19, 2008 OJSC Gazprom and OJSC Rosneft signed the Agreement on collaboration on the issues of Far East Federal Okrug supply with gas. The parties agreed that OJSC Gazprom will purchase 25% and 1 chare of OJSC Daltrangaz from OJSC Rosneft. OJSC Gazprom provide OJSC Rosneft with the access to the idle facilitied of the pipeline Sakhalin-Khabarovsk – Vladivostok.
OJSC Gazpromneft On July 4, 2008 OJSC Gazpromneft and Yokogawa Electric Corporation signed the agreement on strategic partnership that envisages joint work of the companies on introduction of the most modern technological processes management systems, measuring systems and information technologies, produced by Yokogawa Electric Corporation, at the enterprises that are part of OJSC Gazpromneft. In July OJSC Gazpromneft also concluded the deal on attraction of syndicate credit at the sum of USD 1 bln. Syndicate agreement was signed on July 4. The credit that includes two tranches – three-year tranche and five-year tranche (margin is 1.5% and 1.75%, corresponingly), is planned to be used for general corporate needs, as well as for refinancing of the existing debt.
Besides, on July 21, 2008 OJSC Gazpromneft published consolidated financial results according to the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles of the USA (GAAP) over the first quarter 2008. The net profit of OJSC Gazpromneft in the first quarter 2008 reached the level of USD 1 411 mln, which is more than the similar figure of the first quarter 2007 by 110.0%, having increased by 6.6% as compared with the fourth quarter 2007. EBITDA index in the first quarter 2008 was equal to USD 1 920 mln and has increased by 83.9% and 15.0% as compared with the EBITDA index of the similar period of 2007 and the fourth quarter 2007, correspondingly. In the first quarter 2008 the profit went up by 90.0% up to USD 7 866 mln against USD 4 141 mln in the first quarter 2007 and by 22.5% as compared with the fourth quarter 2007.
On July 23, 2008 OJSC Gazpromneft and OJSC Aviation Company Transaero, registered in Saint Petersburg, signed the agreement on collaboration, whose aim is to increase the efficiency and stability of the provision with aviation fuel in Saint Petersburg and other regions of the Russian Federation.
01.05.17.05.04.06.19.06.05.07.23.07.08.08.24.08.11.09.27.09.18.104.22.168.16.11.04.12.20.12.08.01.24.01.11.02.28.02.18.03.03.04.21.04.07.05.23.05.09.06.26.06.14.07.OJSC LUKOIL On July 22, 2008 OJSC LUKOIL and National oil company of Venezuela PDVSA signed the agreement on joint investigation of Khunin-3 block in Venezuela zone in order to make estimation of super-heavy oil production, its processing in the territory of Venezuela and its further export. The investigation expenses are financed by the parties equally. The agreement is in effect for two years and is open to prolongation. And on July 28, OJSC LUKOIL purchased large sales assets in Turkey, buying 100% of shares of Turkish company Akpet by LUKOIL EURASIA PETROL A.S. company (100% filial company of OJSC LUKOIL).
OJSC Mosenergo According to live data, in the first half of 2008 OJSC Mosenergo increased electricity production by 5% as compared with the similar period of the previous year – from 31795.7 to 33401.2 mln kilowatt-hour. And on July 28, 2008 OJSC Mosenergo and company Siemens AG signed the agreement on supply of the equipment to heat and power plant 20 within the framework of the fulfillment of the third stage in the Mosenergo’s investment program.
OJSC Norilsk nickel In July 2008 OJSC Norilsk nickel reviewed three-year syndication credit at the sum of USD 1.5 bln, organized on June 17, 2008. The credit mentioned was used for the purpose of refinancing of the short-term unsecured credit at the sum of USD 2.5 bln, which was granted by BNP Paribas and Societe Gnrale Corporate&Investment Banking (SG CIB) to purchase all the equity stocks issued and in turnover of the company LionOre Mining International Limited.
OJSC Oil Company Rosneft On July 17, 2008 OJSC Oil Company Rosneft declared that it is ready to repay bridge credit at the sum of USD 22 bln, which was taken in 2007 to finance the purchase of Russian extractive, processing, sales and service assets. During the first half of July OJSC Oil Company Rosneft repaid credits liabilities of USD bln ahead of schedule (USD 4.2 bln of bridge-credit and USD 1 bnln of the total refinancing of credit liabilities for Sberbank and VTB). To refinance the debt OJSC Oil Company Rosneft made REPO deal at the sum of USD 2.35 bln and took syndication credit at the sum of USD 2.85 bln for one year at the rate of 5.75%;
part of the shares of Oil Company Rosneft that was purchased by RN-Razvitiye Limited at the auction in 2007 acted as the security for the deal. A five-year syndication credit at the rate LIBOR + 1.25% was also taken; export oil supplies for the benefit of customers that are authorized organizers serving as the security.
OJSC Rostelekom On July 1, 2008 OJSC Rostelekom published its audited consolidated results of the activity over 2007 according to the International Accounting Standards (IAS). Thus, in 2007 company’s consolidated incomes increased as compared with 2006 by 4.6% up to RUR 64 602.0 mln; OIBDA index (operation income before deduction of amortization, depreciation of assets off-turnover and losses from fixed assets retirement) increased as compared with the previous year by 7.6% up to 11 110.0 mln; OIBDA profitability made 17.2%;
net profit in 2007 was equal to RUR 2 806.0 mln, having increased by 92.7% as compared with 2006.
Sberbank of Russia On 16 July 2008 international rating agency Moody’s Investors Service raised long-term rating of deposits in Sberbank of Russia from Ваа2 level to Ваа1 level (which is a maximum rating for Russian banks granted by the rating agency Moody’s Investors Service); the forecast for the rating has been changed for “Positive”.
Besides, the forecast for ratings of issuances of Sberbank of Russia liabilities within MTN program was changed from stable to positive.
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