The third scenario (scenario of the budget expenditures increasing) demonstrates the consequences of the taking decisions on budget expansion (within the frameworks of the external conditions, corresponding to the innovation scenario):
- It is assumed that the volume of the federal budget expenditures in 2009-2011 will be increasing by 22.5 percentage points of the GDP a year. Thus, the federal budget surplus will reduce from 3.5-6% of the GDP to 1-3% of the GDP a year. Correspondingly, the rates of the money supply increase (even the external loans of the government companies being restricted) will make 44% in 2009, 32% in 2010 and 25% in 2011.
Within the framework of the fourth scenario (scenario of inflation’s decrease “at any price”) the estimation of the possible “price” has been made (in terms of the real GDP growth) for the decrease of the inflation to the upper-level of the CPI, given in the Scenario conditions of the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development:
- Achievement of the set level of the inflation is fulfilled at the expense of fast ruble nominal strengthening (for instance, in 2008 the ruble exchange rate against two-currency basket strengthens by 8.5%, which means that dollar against ruble exchange rate decreased by the end of the year to 19.5-20 RUR per 1 USD ), and additional restrictions for money supply growth rates (the GDP monetization decreases down to 33-35% by the end of the year, i.e to the level of the end of 2006).
The results of the calculations for the scenarios mentioned are given in Table 1.
Table The results of Scenario Calculations for Consumer Prices Growth Rates and GDP, as percentage a year Consumer prices index Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 Innovation Scenario of the RF Ministry for Trade and 9.0–10.5 6.0–7.5 5.0–7.0 5.0–6.8 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.Economic Development 1. Specified innovation scenario 12.2 11.0 8.8 7.0 7.8 6.8 6.3 6.1m. Specified innovation scenario with the additional anti11.2 10.1 8.0 6.9 7.8 6.7 6.2 6.inflation measures 2. Scenario of preservation of high prices for oil 12.2 11.6 9.9 8.4 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.2m. Scenario of preservation of high prices for oil with the 11.2 10.5 9.0 8.0 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.anti-inflation measures 3. Scenario of the budget expenditures growth 12.2 11.9 10.7 9.6 7.8 6.6 6.0 5.4. Scenario of inflation decrease “at any price” 10.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.3 5.5 4.0 4.The estimation of the inflation within the frameworks of the specified innovation scenario demonstrates that in 2008 expected growth of consumer prices index will make no less than 12%, in 2009 – 11% and by 2011 the inflation may decrease to the level of a little above 7.0%. The fulfillment of the anti-inflation measures allows decreasing the inflation only to a small extent. In 2008 prices growth rates reduce by only p.p. down to 11.2% and in 2011 the comparative decrease in CPI will not exceed 0.1 p.p. The total difference in the aggregated CPI rates over 2009-2011 is 3.7 p.p. (41.3% against 45.0%).
Within the framework of the scenario of the high prices for oil the inflation’s decrease proceeds at even lower rates than in the original innovation scenario. The aggregated over 5 years consumer prices index is raised to 49.2%. The fulfillment of the measures in this scenario results in some reduction in the inflation by 2011, and the aggregated over 5 years inflation will make 44.6%, which is less than in the innovation scenario.
The two latter scenarios reflect the situation of the negative trends fulfilling in the RF economy, which were caused by some measures of the economic policy. Within the scenario for the budget expenditures increase inflation will not be below 9.5% a year by 2011 (aggregated ICP growth of 52.3% over 20082011). Within this scenario framework there is a slow-down of the real GDP growth rates because of more rapid growth of the real ruble exchange rate and some decrease in the investment activity.
According to the scenario of inflation decrease “at any price” the real GDP rates will reduce down to 3.5% in 2011 (instead of 6% in the original scenario), and the total price of 9.6 p.p. of the inflation over the period (the difference in the aggregated prices growth in the first and the fourth scenarios) makes 8 p.p. of the real GDP (+21.8% instead of +29.7%).
On the whole, the results of calculations allow making the following conclusions:
(1) It is very unlikely that in 2008–2009 the inflation in Russia will be below 125 and 10% a year, correspondingly if no anti-inflation measures concerning (decreasing) also the real GDP growth rates and investments in the fixed assets are taken. It is also highly improbable that the inflation rates of 5-6% planned by the RF Government will be reached.
(2) Pursuit of conservative budgetary and monetary and credit policy (achievement of the budget’s expenditures and monetary supply growth rates declared at the moment) is a sufficient condition for the inflation to be decreased down to 7.0-8.5% a year by 2011 for all the range of oil prices.
(3) Additional decrease in inflation by 0.5-1p,p, a year requires besides the barring of the federal budget’s expenditures in real terms growth, the conduction of a tougher monetary and credit policy (increase in money supply guarantees that the GDP monetization coefficient will not be decreased), reduction in external loans as well as additional ruble appreciation by 1-2 p.p. a year.
Estimations of Software Piracy Level and Rightholders’ Losses in Russia A. Pakhomov, Yu.Potanina As it is shown by the world practice and demonstrated by investigations of the international organizations the level of software piracy in Russia is connected with the level (quality) of socio-economic development of the country. In this connection it seems necessary to change the approach for estimation of the piracy level in Russia taking into account social and economic factors.
At present Russia is accused of the mass violation of the intellectual property rights both due to the level of piracy in different spheres and to the volume of piracy in different spheres and to the volumes of the counterfeit goods. The accusations are brought by association of the foreign right holders and business, whose operation in the territory of the Russian Federation is, according to their estimations, severely damaged by the Russian pirates and counterfeit producers.
International association for professional software producers35 (BSA) together with the research corporation IDC has been publishing annual Global reports on software piracy starting with 2004. The data on piracy level monitoring and foreign right holders’ losses in separate countries are presented in the report.
At the modern stage there are mainly the estimation for piracy by BSA and IDC used in the world. It should be taken into account that the results of these studies are considerably influenced by commercial interests of foreign software corporations that are associate members. BSA unites more than 40 participants, including the biggest multinational corporations operating in Russia - Microsoft, Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, Avid, Symantec etc. Rapidly developing Russian market of personal computers and software attracts foreign corporation in connection with its developing rates slow-down in the countries of the Western Europe and the North America.
In 2007, according to BSA estimations, the level of software piracy in Russia was 73% and the country held the 43th place in BSA rating (87% and 6th place in 2003). The rightholders’ losses reached USD 4.bln, which corresponds to the third position in the world by this index (USD 2.2 bln in 2006, USD 1.6 bln in 2005, USD 1.4 bln in 2004 and USD 1.1 bln in 2003)36. Independent estimations of the piracy level are practically lacking at present.
High estimations for piracy in Russia, being a part of the lobbying efforts of the association, also serve as grounds to protect the interest of member companies at the national market. According to BSA initiative, the law enforcement bodies in Moscow and regions conduct mass inspection of the companies that were caught at the use of the illegal; production of the members of the association. For example, in 2007 there were inspections conducted and 85 verdicts made for illegal use of the software (550 and 50 as compared with 2006, 83 in 5 in 2005)37. Information on the pirate software the BSA receives from the right holders, from the intelligencers through the special parts of its site and through the phone hot lines.
Considering the results of the Fifth global study, it should be noted that on the whole there are quite distinct correlations and proportional dependence of the level (quality) of the socio-economic development of the country and the level of piracy. A preliminary analysis demonstrates that among the countries where the highest level of piracy in the world is observed, there are developing countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America (see table 1).
Includes operation systems, office, infrastructure, antivirus and special software production See press-release “Russia becoming a leader of computer piracy levels decrease”, BSA site http://w3.bsa.org/russia/press/newsreleases/globalstudypr.cfm, 18 May 2008, p. 2.
BSA site http://www3.bsa.org/russia/events/ Table Countries with the Highest and Lowest Software Piracy Indices (Level of Piracy and Rightholders’ Losses) in 10 countries with the highest 10 countries with the lowest 10 countries with the highest 10 countries with the lowest piracy levels piracy levels losses levels 10 losses levels Losses, USD Losses, USD Country Piracy level, % Country Piracy level, % Country Country mln mln Armenia 93 USA 20 USA 8,040 Poland Bangladesh 92 Luxemburg 21 China 6,664 South Korea Azerbaijan 92 New Zealand 22 Russia 4,123 Netherlands Moldova 92 Japan 23 France 2,601 Australia Zimbabwe 91 Austria 25 India 2,025 Thailand Shri Lanka 90 Belgium 25 Germany 1,937 Venezuela Yemen 89 Denmark 25 Great Britain 1,837 Indonesia Libya 88 Finland 25 Japan 1,791 Ukraine Venezuela 87 Sweden 25 Italy 1,779 Argentina Vietnam 85 Switzerland 25 Brazil 1,617 Turkey Source: Fifth Annual BSA and IDC Global Software Piracy Study, Washington, D.C., May 14, 2008. BSA site http://global.bsa.org/idcglobalstudy2007/, p.4–5.
The peculiar feature of Russia is a considerable differentiation of socio-economic development among the subjects of the Russian Federation. This causes the differences in the IT market saturation characteristic for the regions, the level of retail chains development and the extent of Internet distribution, the level of knowledge, demands and incomes of the population. Because of this differentiation it is necessary to study not the piracy as a whole but the situation at each of the regional markets separately. In this context Russia fits worldwide trends and in this connection the increase in intellectual property rights protection is to be expected with the socio-economic development of the market.
At the same time BSA suggests taking the following priority measures in the government policy of Russia, aimed at the reduction in computer piracy: increase of public awareness on intellectual properties value and risks of unlicensed software use; improvement of the legislation and toughening of the enforcement measures in the context of the WTO agreement on Trading aspects if intellectual property rights; on securing the compulsory use of the legal software in the government institutions etc.It seems that the priorities mentioned are ineffective if no corresponding conditions to liquidate piracy in Russia are created. The fight with piracy among the software users, which is the BSA priority, proceeds in the context of the economic development of the society and depends from the government efforts, efforts of foreign and domestic companies as well as consumers’. The legal regulation in the field of the intellectual property must be directed towards the creation of economic incentives, including the support for the national market of the information technologies. It should be understood that the conditions for the national IT companies’ development are only being formed in Russia at present and to increase in their share at the internal and international market it is necessary to support and stimulate the domestic software export, to create and promote national high-tech brands in the field of the information technologies.
On the whole, BSA and IDC experts connect high losses of rightholders (see table 1) with the considerable volumes of the markets for personal computers and software in the developed countries and the high level of piracy in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). As to Russia the increase in software producers’ losses by 88%, from USD 2.197 bln in 2006 up to USD 4.123 bln in 2007 (the level of computer piracy decreasing in Russia from 80 to 73%) is accounted for by the considerable growth in the Russian IT market, as well as with the ruble appreciation against the dollar.
Speaking about the amount of damage from piracy within Russia, it should be taken into account that its scale is big not only in the monetary terms. In the opinion of many experts, competition with pirates resulted in the disappearance of developing Russian companies, for example, Russian Office (Lexicon program developer). Small Russian enterprises that developed software and whose production is in demand among the domestic producers have serious troubles in their business development because of the pirates’ activity.
The piracy also contributes into the drain of talented specialists from the country. For instance, the issue of RAR archiver developed by E. Roshal, a Russian programmer, which is one of the most popular among the similar programs, could be made only abroad thanks to the technical, marketing and trading support of the German company Win.RAR GmbH’s Ltd.
See Fifth Annual BSA and IDC Global Software Piracy Study, Washington, D.C., May 14, 2008. BSA site http://global.bsa.org/idcglobalstudy2007/, p.Pirates get into the close contact with some organization “parasitizing” on them, which use the intensification of fight with the piracy to make unprincipled users to pay compensations. Such a mechanism is suitable both for the pirates and the organizations mentioned, assisting “covering” and corruption. Rightholders’ financial losses, calculated on the basis of BSA and ICD methodology, do not reflect all the negative consequences of the piracy and from this standpoint its significance corresponds to the interest of big corporations that are the members of the association.
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