2007 5.51% 5.57% 5.73% 6.11% 6.0% 2010 5.13% 5.68% 5.83% 6.06% 5.9% 2018 6.01% 6.14% 6.42% 6.52% 6.3% 2028 6.27% 6.44% 6.71% 6.80% 6.6% 2030 5.88% 6.03% 6.26% 6.34% 6.2% МBК-MIACR one-day loan rate ( as % per year at 6.00% 7.40% 1.45% 5.75% 4.0% the end of the month ) official RUR/USD exchange rate at the end of the 27.7626 27.2739 26.9840 27.0789 26.month ( RUR/USD ) official RUR/EUR exchange rate at the end of the 33.4734 34.1906 34.6367 33.9759 34.month ( RUR/EUR ) incremental growth in official RUR/USD ex- -1.28% -1.76% -1.06% 0.35% -0.76% change rate per month ( % ) incremental growth in official RUR/EUR ex- 0.43% 2.14% 1.30% -1.91% 0.39% change rate per month ( % ) RTS stock market turnover per month ( ml US 1564.49 2041.32 1760.56 982.21 dollars by stock included into the list of stocks for the RTS index calculation ) RTS -1 index value at the end of the month 1434.99 1657.28 1461.22 1494.63 Changes in the RTS -1 index per month ( % ) -1.27% 15.49% -11.83% 2.29% 4.7% * Estimate Liquidity denominated in rubles in the Russian banking sector increased considerably in July as compared to the corresponding figures in June: balances on corresponding accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia averaged nearly Rb 405.7 billion in July against Rb 369.1 billion in June 2006.
The Euro exchange rate dropped by $0.009 ( -0.76% ) to 1.2624 US dollars per Euro in the world market in the period between July 1 and 26, 2006. The similar situation was observed in relation to the EUR/RUR exchange rate in the same period. The EUR/RUR exchange rate dropped by 0.171 rubles ( -0.499% ) from 34.3283 to 34.0673 rubles per Euro in the period between July 1 and 26. Total volume of trading on the Euro in the SELT electronic trading system totaled nearly 451.69 million EUR with an average daily turnover of 30.01 million EUR in the period between July 3 and 24, ( against about 413.19 million EUR with an average daily turnover of 25.82 million EUR ). Hence trading activity grew insignificantly in July 2006 as compared to the previous month. Maximum volume of trading on the Euro over the same period totaled at the level of 46.69 million EUR on July 14, 2006, while the minimum was 20.3 million EUR on July 3, 2006.
D.Polevoi Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors According to the preliminary results, the GDP grew by 6.3% the first half of 2006 against 5.4% in the corresponding period of 2005. Industrial production grew 4.4 % year on year, which is 1.0 percentage above the corresponding parameter in the previous year, while construction works grew by 8.3% against 5.8% in the previous year. Moderate growth rates of industrial poduction was one of the factors that resulted in slowdown of freight turnover down to 1.9% against 2.8% in the first half of 2005. Intensive growth in the volumes of gross national savings resulted in growth of capital investments, by 9.4% of GDP against 12.9% in the first half of 2006, and 14.1% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
In the first half of 2006, all types of business activity were getting more and more intensive. According to the preliminary results of the first half of 2006, the GDP grew by 6.3% against 5.4% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The structure of the produced GDP was positively effected by stable growth in turnover of trade, communication and financial services, as well as paid retail services against the background of increasing growth rates in industrial production and construction industry. Both internal and external demand grew in the 2Q of 2006. Acceleration of growth rates in 2Q of 2006 was governed by growing investment demand and changes in the structure of investments by type of economic activity in favor of manufacturing activities and infrastructure that are not involved in natural resources production. While in 1Q of 2006 the industrial production index was 103.0% and construction industry – 101.5%, in 2Q it grew faster against the corresponding period of the previous year, up to 106.0% and 112.7% respectively. As a result, industrial production grew by 4.4% against the first half of 2005 and by 1.0 percentage points against the previous year, while construction industry grew by 8.3% against 5.8%.
The economic growth was supported by stable growth in internal demand. In 1Q and 2Q of 2006, internal demand grew 9.3% and 10.1% respectively year on year According to the data of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade. At the same time, investment demand grew faster in 2Q – capital investment in 1Q and 2Q of 2006 grew 5.9% and 11.7% respectively year on year. Capital investments from all sources of financing totaled Rb 1562.6 billion or 12.9% of GDP At the end of the first half of 2006.
I Q II Q I Q II Q I Q II Q I Q II Q 2003г.2004г.2005г.2006г.
industrial production transport freight turnover volume of w ork in constriction retail turnover Figure 1. Industrial Production Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity in 2003 – 2006, % year on year Favorable foreign economic situation continued to have a positive effect on the internal economic situation. In the period between January and June 2006, exports and imports grew by 31.6% and 26.0% respectively in terms of value. It should be noted that exports growth was governed exclusively by high world market prices of fuel and power resources, metallic ores and metals. Profitability of the products sold by the industries involved in production of fuel and power resources, and those involved in production of metallic ores and other types of mineral resources was 37.3% and 32.1% respectively at the end of 1Q of 2006 with an average level of profitability in the economy at large accounting for 15.1%, against 27.1% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Growth in revenues of primary production industries had a positive effect, unlike 2005, on the economic growth rates.
In the first half of 2006, the production index of the natural resources production industry grew up to reach 102.3% against 101.5% in the previous year, including up to 102.4% and 103.9% in oil and metallic ores production respectively. It will be recalled that it is the outrunning growth in internal demand that had a dominant impact on oil production under an extremely favorable prices of hydrocarbons.
I II III IV I II III IV I II -2004 2005 --natural resources extraction fuel and pow er natural resources extraction coal mining -8 manufacturing activities industrial output indices Figure 2. Industrial Output Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity in the Period Between and 2006, % against corresponding quarter of the previous year Structural changes in industry were governed by advanced development of manufacturing activities.
The production volume of manufacturing activities grew by 4.5% in the first half of 2006.
The machine building industry grew at moderate rates due to both high base levels of the previous year and changes in internal demand in the first half of 2006. In the period between January and June 2006, the index of production of machinery and equipment was 91.3% against 108.7% in the corresponding period of the previous year, which the index of production of electrical facilities, electronic and optical equipment was 105.5% against 122.0% in the same period of the previous year. In the period between January and May 2006, imports volumes kept growing considerably in physical terms under falling import prices. According to the customs statistics a share of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles in the structure of imported goods grew by 3.6 percentage points against the period between January and May 2005, while their volume grew by 40.8% in terms of value. Imports of mo tor cars by legal entities and natural bodies increased by 25.3% and 1.9 times respectively in physical terms.
In the period between January and June 2006, the index of production of transport vehicles and equipment was 105.6%, which is 3.2 percentage points above that in the corresponding period of 2005. The motor cars index production accounted for 109.6%. in the period between January and June 2006. The increase in motor car production’s growth rates resulted from a 55.1% growth in production at assembly facilities, including 108.5% at ZAO Ford Motors Company and by 17.0 times at ОАО Avtoframos. Dynamic production growth was supported by stable growth in real personal incomes, as well as relatively low prices in combination with high-quality service characteristics of these vehicles and a well-developed credit system.
Domestic enterprises showed production growth as well: 49.2% at ОАО UAZ, 8.2% at ОАО VAZ, and 3.1% at ООО Avtomobilny Zavod GAZ. Such growth resulted from both the growth in consumer demand for ‘niche’ models like Lada 4x4 (Niva) and UAZ Okhotnik, and growth in production of new models like Lada Kalina and UAZ Patriot.
There were several factors that had an adverse affect on the development of the industry, namely a 19.5% cutback in production of motor cars at JV GM-AVTOVAZ due to diminution in demand for Chevrolet Niva motor car and failure of the project on its production.
The development of manufacturing activities remained at the level of the previous year due to growth in production of food products, pulp and paper, rubber goods and plastic materials, and metallurgical products by 5.2%, 6.5%, 11.1%, 11.3% respectively against the first half of 2005. The year of 2006 was featured by upwards trends in textile, tailoring and leather and foot-wear production, which, however, had insignificant impact on the internal market due to a long-lasting downward trend in production of light industrial goods.
The situation in the non-food products market was aggravated by the fact that low level of activity of the domestic business in this sector provoked aggressive imports under gains of the national currency against the US dollar and declining competitive power of Russian goods, as well as outrunning growth in real personal incomes and wages over retail trade turnover: a share of imported goods grew up to reach 55.4% of the non-food products market. Imports of food products and agricultural raw materials grew by 16.7% in terms of value, while textile, textile products and foot-ware grew 1.times.
Stable growth in final consumption of households in 2006 was governed by gradually improving social parameters of economic development. In the first half of 2006, real personal incomes grew by 11.1% against 8.5% in the corresponding period of the previous year, while real wages grew by 12.1% against 7.9%.
The growth in personal effective demand led to intensive growth in retail trade turnover. The growth in sales turnover was dominated, like in the previous three years, by outrunning growth in the non-food products market. The volume of retail trade turnover grew by 11.3%, sales of food products and non-food products grew by 8.7% and 13.7% respectively, against the first half of 2005. This was governed, to a certain extent, by structural changes in prices of basic commodity groups. Prices of food and non-food products grew up by 7.0% and 2.4% respectively since the beginning of the year as consumer costs grew up by 6.2% in the first half of 2006.
In 2006, a share of consumption expenditures kept growing, while relative value of financial assets and cash money kept reducing. In the first half of 2005, consumption expenditures accounted for 72.3% in the structure of cash incomes utilization, including purchase of goods - 55.4%, savings - 10.9% and purchase of foreign currency – 7.3%. Savings activity of natural bodies has gradually been recovering under a new growth in personal cash incomes and creation of a bank deposit insurance system. In the first half of 2006, growth in personal cash incomes, gaining national currency, and recovering public confidence in banks established conditions under which 6.1%, against 4.9% in the corresponding period of the previous year, of personal incomes was deposited on bank savings accounts and invested in securities. In the period between January and May 2006, the volume of personal cash income, purchase of goods and payment for services, and personal savings grew 21.9%, 22.0%, and 18.8% respectively year on year. In addition, personal demand was supported by dynamic development of consumer lending. Early in May 2006, the volume of loans extended to natural bodies amounted to Rb 1351.3 billion against Rb 706.0 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Since aggregate personal incomes account for almost 70% of remuneration of labor of employees, it is the growth of employment that is one of the key aspects determining the parameters of social development. According a sample survey conducted by the Federal Statistic Service with regard to the employment issues, the volume of employment in the economy in the period between January and June 2006 remained at the level of the previous year, 68.8 million persons. A stable economic growth over the last few years and market recovery in the real economic sector established conditions under which enterprises and organizations have found themselves in need for qualified personnel and, above all, those who have operational experience. Total unemployment, as calculated by using the ILO’s methodology, had been reduced by 211 thousand persons since the beginning of the year (7.5% of the total work force ) to 5.6 million persons by the end of June 2006. The tension coefficient ( the number of unemployed nationals registered with employment services as per a single vacancy ) reduced from 2.in January to 1.7 in June 2006.
Under the prevailing trends of internal and external demand, the GDP is expected to reach about 6.5% in 2006, provided that capital investments and households consumption increase by 10.9% and 11.3% respectively.
O.Izriadnova Industrial Environment in Russia in July July 2006 is more likely to demonstrate a slowdown in the industrial growth. This at least can be supported by the estimates made by enterprises themselves for sales and output of their products, which predict the above stated. The slowdown, however, is not expected to last long, because enterprises are still optimistic about their production plans, while sales forecasts show better figures and reached new records high.
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