and ‘Rodina’ Party ( ‘Motherland’ ) на базе ‘left wing ideology’, как было заявлено. In fact, it was a voluntary dissolution of Rodina upon its congress in March (at which new leader Babakov А. was elected ), after which the party ran into anabiosis and failed to find itself in the political parties system.
However, the outlooks for the unified party are not bright, in spite of that Mironov S. has recently managed to strengthen his administrative and political power, which in practice means that he has gained more power in being able to appoint and remove members of the Council of Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation ( in other words, to trade the parliamentary privilege ), and the party seems to have been attracting adversaries of regional authorities across the country under a safeguarded, ‘legal brand’ of the ‘Russian Party of Life’. Since the inception of the party in 2003, its leaders Mironov S. and his self-perpetuating spin doctor Levichev N. have been experiencing systembased problems: lack of a distinct, if any, ideology ( its abstractive, ‘vital’ exhortations have been addressed to nowhere and failed to find audience to be touched with ), as well as huge costs of election campaigns going far beyond any reasonable limits. According to the ‘SPS’ experience at the latest federal election campaign, no regional network, even a strong one, is able to compensate for macrofailures, because the focus here is on the leaders’ names, which is not the case at regional elections.
In July 2006, Basayev S, one of the most notorious leaders of the Islamic terrorist movement in the region of Northern Caucasia, was killed in the Republic of Ingushetia. Obviously, this can be regarded as success of the Russian authorities, which is in line with the interests of the Russian society. The more so, because Sadulayev А., the so called ‘President of Ichkeria’ ( also known as ‘the amir of mojaheddins of the Northern Caucasia’ ) was killed a month earlier during a special operation. Umarov D. was announced a new ‘president’ who, together with Basayev S., was a part of a small group of real underground leaders, but far less known and powerful among his fellows, thus being able to attract far less human and material resources. The practice shows, however, that sooner of later the communication network tends to be restored after the death of the leaders ( such as Yandarbiyev Z., Maskhadov А., Hattab, Abu al-Valid, Р. Mukasharipov R., etc.), if the ‘healthy’ environment is retained, i.e. a combination of religious and national hatred with the struggle against terrorist policy of official authorities, total corruption and arbitrary rule, official authorities lacking legitimacy acknowledged by the general public, legitimacy, a procedure for resolution of disputes ( ‘Rule of law’ ) which could become an attractive alternative to the violence-driven underground. In this respect, a forecast for the situation in the Northern Caucasia is likely to be negative so far.
S. Zhavoronkov Budgetary and Fiscal Policy In the first half of 2006, the federal budget revenues accounted for 24.87% of GDP, the federal budget expenditures accounted for 15.87% of GDP, and the federal budget surplus accounted for 9.0% of GDP, according to the preliminary data on execution of the RF federal budget in June 2006. In the period between January and May 2006, the Russian Federation consolidated budget revenues accounted for 37.2% of GDP, the Russian Federation consolidated budget expenditures accounted for 24.7% of GDP, and the budget surplus was 12.5% of GDP. As of July 1, 2006, the value of the RF Stabilization Fund totaled Rb 2066,8 billion against Rb 1928,9 billion as of June 1, 2006. Hence the Stabilization Fund grew in volume by Rb 128.9 billion in March 2006.
State Budget The federal budget was executed to the amount of Rb 2 931,75 billion ( 24.87% of GDP ) in terms of revenues, and Rb 1 870,38 billion ( 15.87% of GDP ) in terms of expenditures, according to the preliminary estimation of budget execution by cash in the period between January and June 2006 as made by the Ministry of Finance of Russia. The federal budget surplus amounted to Rb 1 061,billion ( 9.0% of GDP ). It should be noted that the volume of revenues to the federal budget in the period between January and June 2006 exceeded considerably the corresponding parameter of the previous year ( Rb 2 386,39 billion ), but reduced insignificantly against the GDP parameter ( 25.94% of GDP in 2005 ). The federal budget expenditures in the period between January and June 2006 also grew in real terms against the corresponding parameter in 2005 ( Rb 1 444.19 billion ), but slightly reduced in relative terms ( 15.7% of GDP in 2005 ). With regard to the federal budget surplus in the period between January and June 2006, it also exceeded in absolute magnitude the corresponding parameter of 2005 ( Rb 942,2 billion ), while reduced against the GDP ( 10.24% of GDP in 2005 ).
The volume of federal budget revenues totaled Rb 518,14 billion and Rb 538,01 billion respectively to account for 23.84% and 24.13% of the monthly GDP in the period between April and June 2006.
The Federal budget expenditures totaled Rb 315.36 billion (14.51% of GDP ) and Rb 365.9 billion (16.41% of GDP ) respectively, the federal budget surplus totaled Rb 202.77 billion and Rb 172.billion respectively to account for 9.33% and 7.72% of GDP respectively in the period between April and June 2006. Hence it should be noted that the RF budget revenues increased insignificantly and budget expenditures increased markedly both in absolute magnitude and percentage-wise to GDP at the end of June 2006 as compared to the previous month. This in turn effected a substantial fall in surplus of the federal budget in nominal terms and percentage-wise to the GDP against the parameters of May of the same year.
The structure of budget revenues inflow over the period under review is shown in Table 1.
Table Revenues to the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation ( in terms of percentage of GDP, by Cash Execution ) Cash Execution June 2005 May 2006 June Taxes and other payments administered 14.32% 12.70% 12.33% by the Federal Tax Service Taxes and payments administered by the 9.33% 11.19% 11.09% Federal Customs Service Revenues administered by the Federal Agency for Federal Property Manage- 0.20% 0.20% 0.21% ment Federal budget revenues administered by 2.08% 0.95% 1.25% other federal agencies Total revenues 25.94% 25.04% 24.87% As follows from Table 1 that the structure of tax revenues remains the same at various public agencies in May 2006 as compared to those of May 2006 and June 2005. The biggest share of revenues is accounted for by taxes and other payments administered by the Federal Tax Service ( 12.33 % of GDP as opposed to 12.7o% of GDP in May 2005 and 14.32% of GDP in June of the previous year ). Taxes and payments administered by the Federal Customs Service exceeded markedly the corresponding parameters of June 2005 ( 9.33% of GDP ), but declined insignificantly against those of the pervious month ( 11.19% of GDP ). The volume of revenues administered by the Federal Agency for Federal Property Management in June 2006 exceeded slightly those of May 2005 and June 2005, which accounted for 0.20% of GDP. In June 2006, the federal budget revenues administered by other federal agencies accounted for 1.25% of GDP, which means that they reduced significantly against the corresponding parameter of the previous year ( 2.08% of GDP ), but were found to be well above the corresponding parameters of May 2006 ( 0.95% of GDP ).
The Ministry of Finance of Russia’s preliminary data on financing of the RF federal budget expenditures in the period between January and June 2005 and 2006 are listed in Table 2.
Table Volumes of Financing of the Federal Budget Expenditures ( in terms of percentage of GDP ) Financing of expenditures January – June January – May January – June 2005 2006 Nationwide issues, 2.56% 2.68% 2.32% of which central government and municipal debt ser1.14% 0.93% 0.75% vice National defense 3.04% 3.61% 3.03% National security and law enforcement 2.22% 2.65% 2.31% National economy 1.04% 1.32% 1.22% Municipal housing economy 0.02% 0.18% 0.20% Environmental protection 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% Education 0.95% 1.08% 0.95% Culture, cinematography and mass media 0.23% 0.24% 0.23% Health care and sport 0.45% 0.71% 0.59% Social policy 0.92% 1.08% 0.95% Intergovernmental transfers 6.02% 7.60% 6.28% Total Expenditures 17.49% 21.17% 18.10% It can be noted that a share of financed federal budget expenditures accounted for 18.10% of GDP in the period between January and June 2006, which is slightly above the corresponding parameter of the period between January and June 2005 ( 17.49 % ), while it is markedly above that of the period between January and May of this year ( 21.17 % ). Comparing the expenditure pattern, it should be noted that intergovernmental transfers ( 6.28% of GDP against 6.02% of GDP in 2005 ) account for the biggest volume of financing in 2006, as was the case in 2005. No substantial variations can be found in other major expenditure items. In the period between January and June 2006, expenditures on nationwide issues accounted for 2.32% of GDP ( as opposed to 2.56% of GDP in 2005 ), including 0.75% of GDP for servicing public and municipal debts ( as opposed to 1.14% of GDP in 2005 ), national defense ( 3.03% of GDP against 3.04% of GDP in 2005 ), as well as national defense and law enforcement ( 2.31% of GDP against 2.22% of GDP in 2005 ). Hence, in 2006, some of the above listed expenditure items show growth in percentage terms of the GDP, while others show a slight reduction. Other expenditure items totaled about 4.16 % of GDP at the end of the January – June period in 2006 against 3.65% of GDP in the period between January and June 2005. Comparing the expenditures at the end of the January – May and January – June periods in 2006, it follows from the Table that all expenditure figures show reduction at the end of June 2006.
At the end of the first five months of 2006, the Russian Federation consolidated budget revenues accounted for 37.2 % of GDP against 38.8% of GDP in the corresponding period of 2005. The Russian Federation consolidated budget expenditures declined slightly as compared to the corresponding parameter in 2005 ( by 26.5% ) to account for 24.7% of GDP. Surplus of the Russian Federation consolidated budget accounted for 12.5% of GDP in the period between January and May 2006, which is slightly above below the corresponding parameter in 2005 ( 12.3% ). Hence there was a marked decline in the Russian Federation consolidated budget revenues at the end of the period between January and May 2006 as compared to the corresponding parameters of 2005, with insignificant growth in the budget surplus.
As of June 1, 2006, the value of the RF Stabilization Fund totaled Rb 2066.8 billion against Rb 1928.9 billion as of June 1 of the same year. Consequently, the value of the RF Stabilization Fund grew by Rb 137,9 billion.
Execution of the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation in the Period Between January and April 2006. ( in terms of percentage of GDP ) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27,1% 26,0% 26,1% 25,7%25,0% 25,0% 25,1% 25,2% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33,6% 32,2% 32,2% 31,6%30,9% 30,8% 30,7% 31,1% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28,8% 28,6% 28,7% 28,5% 8,2% 27,8% 27,9% 29,7% Deficit / 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4,7% 3,5% 3,6% 3,1% 2,7% 3,0% 2,8% 1,4% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 6,1% 21,8% 27,4% 27,4% 26,6% 27,2% 27,1% 26,4% 26.5% 26.9% 26,8% Revenues 30,6% 28,2% 29,8% 32,9% 32,9% 32,5% 33,1% 32,9% 31,9% 32.0% 32.3% 32,3% Expenditures 18,5% 22,8% 25,4% 27,3% 26,9% 27,0% 27,0% 26,9% 26,0% 25.9% 26.1% 27,8% Deficit / 12,1% 5,4% 4,4% 5,6% 6,0% 5,5% 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% 6.1% 6.2% 4,5% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Revenues 48,8% 40,3% 40,3% 40,8% 38,8% 38,2% 37,6% 37,0% 36,0% 35,9% 35,8% 36,1% Expenditures 22,2% 23,3% 24,9% 27,1% 26,5% 26,6% 26,7% 26,6% 27,2% 26,1% 25,9% 28,1% Deficit / 10,0% 26,5% 17,0% 15,4% 13,7% 12,3% 11,6% 11,0% 10,5% 8,8% 9,8% 7,9% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Revenues 36,2% 34,4% 37,9% 37,1% 37,2% Expenditures 17,6% 21,0% 24,2% 25,4% 24,7% Deficit / 18,7% 13,4% 13,6% 11,7% 12,5% Surplus Key Events in the Budgetary Sector In 2007, the federal budget expenditures may increase by Rb 20 to 50 billion Rb against the parameters approved by the Government of Russia in June 2006, stated the Minister of Finance of Russia Kudrin A.. It will be recalled that the amount of expenditures was initially planned at a level of Rb 5 trillion 282 billion. After the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade of Russia provides updated data on federal special programs and extra-programs as part of the federal special investment program, it will finally produce the figure to be additionally approved in the expenditure side of the federal budget. In addition, the Minster pointed out that within a month the Ministry of Finance of Russian will complete the work on the methodology of oil budget calculation to eventually produce new measures and indicators to measure the Russian Economy development level.
Indexation of wages of public employees in 2005 to 2007 will result in 1.5 growth of their real wages, stated Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Golikova T. in July 2006. Furthermore, a 15% indexation of wages of public employees in 2007 will be carried out by from September 1. A total of Rb 127,8 billion will be allocated for such indexation. In addition, the volume of the investment fund in 2007 may exceed Rb 160 billion, according to the Minister of Finance. For the time being, the volume of the said investment fund has been scheduled at a level of Rb 95,8 billion, including savings on interest payments on account of early repayment of a share of the debt due to the Paris Club of Creditors. Taking into account additional funds which can be generated from savings on servicing of the remainder upon its full repayment ( about Rb 12 billion ), as well as the undrawn balance of the investment fund in 2006 ( about Rb 59 billion ), which will be carried forward to the fund in 2007, the total amount of the investment fund may exceed Rb 160 billion in 2007.
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