Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds with maturity in 2030, 2018 and 2007 in May - July 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% USD-2030 USD-2007 USD-The situation in the ruble government debt market remained stabled in July. Quotations varied only slightly under different impacts at the background of low trading activity in the beginning of the month. Quotations were adversely affected by the RUR exchange rate downfall against the USD, as well as by the fact that funds were partially transferred to the primary market where there were several 03.05.05.05.11.05.13.05.17.05.19.05.23.05.25.05.27.05.01.06.03.06.07.06.09.06.14.06.16.06.20.06.22.06.24.06.28.06.30.06.04.07.06.07.08.07.12.07.14.07.18.07.20.07.22.07.03.05.05.05.11.05.13.05.17.05.19.05.23.05.25.05.27.05.01.06.03.06.07.06.09.06.14.06.16.06.20.06.22.06.24.06.28.06.30.06.04.07.06.07.08.07.12.07.14.07.18.07.20.07.22.07.auctions of OFZ federal bonds placement and OBR issuance were held at the beginning of the month.
This was followed by a slightly strengthened RUR exchange rate against USD and a fairly favorable situation in the Russian Eurobonds market, which allowed bonds yields to grow up a little. In general, the situation in the ruble bonds market has been governed by the RUR/USD exchange rates as well as liquidity volume in the banking sector over the last few months.
In the period between 1 and 22 July, the total secondary GKO-OFZ market turnover accounted for nearly 32.76 bln rubles with the average weighted turnover being 2.05 bln rubles ( as compared to 89.48 bln rubles with the average weighted turnover being 5.26 bln rubles in June ). Hence the activity in the Russian ruble government bonds drastically declined in July as compared to June. One OFZPAD placement (issue 25057) auction was held during the month, its issuance volume being 816 bln rubles. The placement volume was 15.77 bln rubles with the average weighted yield being 7.49% per annum.
As of July 22, the GKO-OFZ market volume accounted for 629.4 bln rubles at face value and 613.bln rubles at the market value. Duration of the market GKO-OFZ portfolio was 1740.33 days.
Corporate Security Market Stock market condition.
There was a stable increase in quotations in the Russian stock market in July. Insignificant decline was caused only by the news on terrorist acts in London, which was won back within the same trading day. The positive trend was governed by a series of positive factors. In particular, the Russian Federation started to transfer funds in repayment of its debt to the Paris Club in July, which was considered by some investors as an evidence of likely upgrading of the Russian sovereign rating. Investors were paid much interest in the shares of Sibneft because of extremely high dividend payments, and those of Lukoil and Sberbank RF because of a high level of influence of non-residents.
The second week of the month was characterized by alternating periods of growth and descentive correction. The market grew without any significant news and partially reflected a favorable situation in European stock exchange markets, as well as positive movement in the Russian in the beginning of the week. This was followed a short-term correction, but then quotations started to grow again due to another oil price explosion. Prices of Russian shares insignificantly dropped due to the reduction in foreign orders.
The market resumed its growth after a period of consolidation and at the backgrounds of favorable conditions in world markets and stable high oil prices in the second half of the month. The news that public company Rosneftegaz reached the final stage of negotiations on a more than $7 bln US dollars credit to pay 10.7% of Gazprom shares backed up both Gazprom shares’ quotations and the market as a whole. In general, news were scarce due to the summer holiday season.
In general, the RTS index grew by 7.28% in the period between July 1 and 22, which amounted to 52.23 points in real terms. Trading turnover of shares included into the RTS index amounted to nearly $466.24 ml US dollars with an average weighted turnover being $31.08 ml US dollars ( against $390.16 ml US dollars with an average weighted turnover being $21.67 ml US dollars in June ) over the same period. Hence investors were considerably more active in July as compared to June. Maximum and minimum trading turnover figures in July were $53.33 ( on July 7 ) and $7.76 ml US dollars ( on July 18 ) respectively, against $32.12 ml US dollars and $9.91 ml US dollars in June.
According to the data on monthly figures ( in the period between June 28 June and July 22 ), market value of most of the blue chips grew up. In July, shares of Sberbank RF were leading in growth, its quotations grew straight by 18.05% during the month. Shares of Mosenergo, Norilsky Nikel and Tatneft demonstrated a slightly slower rates of growth, 13.61%, 13.57% and 11.11% respectively. Shares of Lukoil (+9.9%), RAO EES of Russia (by 6.38% ) and Surgutneftegaz ( by 6.33% ) also grew at slower rates in July. Shares of Sibneft and Rostelekom grew moderately in July, by 3.73% and 3.47% respectively. Shares of YUKOS were the only outsiders among the blue chips, their market value declined by 1.25% by the end of the month.
Figure 90 800.The total volume of trading ($) 80 750.The RTS Index 70 700.60 650.50 600.40 550.30 500.20 450.10 400.350.Figure Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from June 28 to July 22, 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Change in price (%) points mln US dollars s 01.06.18.06.06.07.22.07.09.08.25.08.10.09.28.09.14.10.01.11.18.11.06.12.23.12.18.01.03.02.21.02.11.03.29.03.14.04.03.05.20.05.07.06.24.06.12.07.Ukos Tatneft Sibneft GMK LUKoil Russia Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Rostelekom Sberbank of Surgutneftegas In July, shares of OJSC Lukoil (32.68%) and RAO EES of Russia ( 21.8% ) were leading in terms of turnover in the RTS 6. Total turnover of shares of these two issuers accounted for nearly 54.5%. In addition, shares of Surgutneftegaz, Rostelekom, Sberbank RF, Sibneft and Norilsky Nikel also ranked among the leaders in terms of turnover in the RTS according to the results of week trading within the month.
According to the data of July 22, the top-five list of leaders in terms of capitalization is as follows7: Lukoil – $33.68 bln US dollars, Surgutneftegaz – $27.89 bln US dollars, Sibneft – $15.84 bln US dollars, Sberbank RF – $14.64 bln US dollars, and Norilsky Nikel – $14.26 bln US dollars.
Futures market. In July, activity of investors at the RTS (FORTS) futures market remained virtually unchanged as compared to the statistics in June. In the period between July 1 and 22, the total turnover of the RTS futures and option market accounted for nearly 29.96 bln rubles ( 107.59 thousand transactions and 3.05 million contracts ) against 29.62 bln rubles (93.4 thousand transactions and 3.22 million contracts ) in June.
Futures were in the largest demand among market participants: the futures market turnover over the period under review accounted for 23.64 bln rubles ( 99.79 thousand transactions and 2.41 million contracts ). Options were in a far less demand in the market the option turnover amounted to nearly 6.33 bln rubles ( 7.79 thousand transactions and 645.33 thousand contracts ). The maximum trading volume in the futures market accounted for 3.27 bln rubles ( on July 7 ), while the minimum one was 1.03 bln rubles on July 18.
Corporate Bond Market.
The situation in the corporate bond and regional bond markets was governed by different factors in the beginning of the month. On the one hand, improved liquidity in the banking sector fostered growth in quotations of traded securities. On the other hand, the weakened RUR exchange rate vs. the USD and increased inflationary expectations forced quotations downward. Hence the prices of traded securities changed insignificantly in the beginning of the month.
The growth in quotations was restrained by cash liquidity and uncertain situation in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the news on Moody’s downgrading the ratings of Gazprom, Russian Railroads and Tatneft, which were upgraded on June 23 due to introduction of a new rating methodology, had a moderately negative impact on the market. In spite of dominating negative factors, the outcomes of primary placements demonstrated that investors had enough interest in this segment of the financial market. During the third week of the month, there was a sideward trend in the market under a slight growth in the USD exchange rate caused by a tax payment period. At the end of the week investors focused mostly on primary placement of Kazan bonds.
In the period between July 1 and 22, the price index of corporate bonds traded in the MICEX8 declined by 0.01 points ( 0.01% ), whereas the index of top-ten most liquid corporate bonds was 0.points ( 0.09% ). In the period between July 1 and 22, the total turnover of corporate bonds in the MICEX was nearly 14.95 bln rubles with an average weighted turnover being 996.7 million rubles ( nearly 22.01 bln rubles with an average weighted turnover being 1.29 bln rubles in June ). Hence in July the trading turnover of corporate bonds of Russian companies slightly declined as compared to the figures in June.
In a classic stock market.
According to the RTS data.
The calculations were based on the corporate bond indices traded in the MICEX and calculated by Zenit Bank.
Figure Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.104.Oil quotations during the month depended largely upon weather conditions in the Galf of Mexicj.
Two typhoons – Sidney and Dennis – had a significant impact upon oil production: there were days when up to 12% of offshore oil production platforms were closed, while gas production and conversion processes dropped by 8%. By taking into account the impact of such weather-forming cataclysms on the oil market, investors focused mostly on the analysis of EIA and API statistics, particularly the data on petroleum products reserve volumes. Statistics on oil imports to China remained almost unchanged as compared to the figures of the previous year, when total annual exports to China grew up by 35% by the end of the year. This event, however, had no significant impact on prices, since the Central Bank of China revaluated the Chinese national currency yuan by 2% and linked its exchange rate to the basket of currencies in July. This resulted in increased purchase power of the yuan, which partially muted the adverse effect resulted from decrease in purchases. As a result, oil prices in July varied within a certain range slightly below 60 US dollars per barrel.
The situation in the world stock markets remained fairly favorable in July ( see Table 1 ). The basic stock market indices of the United States, Europe and developing countries demonstrated substantial growth during the month.
The Americal stock market showed a stepless growth in July. The basic stock market indices grew at the backgrounds of published statistics on positive macroeconomic situation, corporate news and technically “oversold” market. The terrorist acts in London, UK – basic ally of the United Stated in antiterrorism activity in the world – had no such an adverse impact as could have been expected. Macroeconomic data were positive in general: economic growth remains stable without high inflation level as well as consumers’ confidence and accelerated growth rates of retail sales are quite encouraging for the market. Statistics on corporate financial situation were mostly positive, which also fostered the market growth. The fact that oil quotations were stabilized below $60 US dollars per barrel partially relived the pressure on share prices as well.
01.06.18.06.06.07.22.07.09.08.25.08.10.09.28.09.14.10.01.11.18.11.06.12.23.12.18.01.03.02.21.02.11.03.29.03.14.04.03.05.20.05.07.06.24.06.12.07.Figure 140% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite The RTS Index 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% In general, the favorable situation both in the markets of developing countries and oil market encouraged growth in the Russian stock market as well, including increased demand from foreign investors. Extremely high oil prices, apart from producing a general favorable effect on the Russian state budget, supported oil assets’ attractiveness in the Russian market showing its heavy weight in basic stock indices. This allowed the Russian stock market to show a considerable growth in July.
Corporate News OJSC Lukoil Lukoil and KonokoPhillips set up a joint-venture LLC Narianmarneftegaz intended to produce hydrocarbons in Timano-Pecherskaya oil and gas province located to the north of the European part of Russia. KonokoPhillips’ economic share in the joint-venture accounts for 30%. The value of the transaction on purchase of this share is about $500 ml US dollars. The joint-venture will be managed by Lukoil and KonokoPhillips on a parity basis. Maximum oil production volume is scheduled to be nearly 200 000 barrels daily. Produced oil will be delivered to international markets by tankers through a Lukoil terminal in Varandey located on the cost of the Barents Sea ( Nenets Automous National Area ). In 2007, Lukoil plans to increase the terminal’ capacity up to 240 000 barrels daily with KonokoPhillips participating in designing and financing of the terminal expansion project. The jointventure was established as part of the large-scale strategic alliance concluded between Lukoil KonokoPhillips on September 29, 2004. KonokoPhillips purchased more than 11% common shares of Lukoil under the alliance.
OJSC Sibneft The company published its consolidated financial statement in accordance with US GAAP on July 12. OJSC Sibneft’s earnings in 2004 increased by 32% ( up to $8,89 bln US dollars ) against the previous year. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation & amortization ( EBITDA ) increased by 39% ( up to $3,24 bln US dollars ) in 2004, in spite of a substantial increase in mineral tax and export duties, as well as transportation and public service costs. Direct operating costs grew by 8%, which is 4 times less than the revenues growth rates. Net profit of OJSC Sibneft accounted for $2,05 bln US dollars in 2004. The decrease in net profit was caused mainly by increased contributions relating to profit tax and social payments. Total tax load on company’s operations was doubled. As of December 31, 2004, total debt of the company accounted for $1,45 bln US dollars.
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