The corporate securities market The state of affairs in the stock market. In July, the national stock market witnessed a substantial fall in quotations vs. the prior month. More specifically, between 30 June to 25 July the RTS index fell by 4.points, or at 8.25%. During the first week of the month the Index hit the next post-crisis maximum and made up 518.07 points4 (the closing session on 2 July). Between June 30 to July 25 the turnover of trades in RTS accounted for USD 543.09 mln., while its daily turnover averaged 27.2 mln., or at 4.9 mln. more than the respective index reported in the prior month. The record-breaking daily volume of trades was registered on July 1 (USD 44.753 mln.) while the lowest on- on June 5 (14.126 mln.). The Index grew over the first one and a half week, and by 8 July it hit 513.33 points. The consequent period of time saw a rapid fall of the index to the bottom line of 427.64 points (on 17 July), which corresponds to the level reached during the first week of May 2003. Then Index’s rebound by the closing session on 25 July made up 460.48 points. Such a considerable fall in the Index was fueled, among other factors, by the situation with YUKOs, as the majority of Western investors perceived that as a rise in political risks of investment in Russian securities, which could not help affecting the securities market.
Last time a greater value was reported on 24 October 01.04.09.04.17.04.30.04.14.05.22.05.02.06.10.06.20.06.30.06.09.07.17.07.90 550.Объем торгов ($) Индекс РТС 500.60 450.400.30 350.300.250.Fig.So, between June 30 through July 25 practically all the national blue chips were falling: YUKOS’s stock lost 17.66%, thus breaking the record among the most liquid stock, while Mosenergo lost 12.89%, followed by Rostelekom (-11.65%), Sibneft (-9.65), Surgutneftegaz (-8.24%), and LUKoil (-8.25%). The least volatile were Tatneft’s stock that fell just by 1.73% as of July 25. Against such a background, RAO UES Russia and Norilsky Nickel’s Stock formed an exception, as they were on the rise between 30 June to 25 July - at 2.and 6.77%, respectively. So, it is Norilsky Nickel’s stock that proved to be a leader of the national stock market for the second month running.
Between June 30 through July 25 the aggregate turnover made up USD 543.1 mln. vs. 424.5 mln. reported on June, or at 27.9%. The average daily trade volume grew by 21.5% vs. June and reached USD 27.2 mln.
(vs. 22.3 mln. in June). Most likely, such a rise in the trade volume was driven by investors’ eagerness to fix profit after a long growth in quotations and the situation around YUKOS.
As of July 25, the Top Five (by capitalization) national companies comprised: YUKOS- USD 25.7 bln., LUKoil- 15.4 bln., Surgutneftegas-14.02, Sibneft-11.5, and RAO UES Russia-USD 11.1 bln.
The market for futures. The period in question witnessed a slight rise in the volume of trades on FORTS market vs. the prior month, with the aggregate turnover of the futures market accounting for RUR 21.2 bln (72,400 transactions, 3.06 mln. contracts) of which on futures- RUR 19.4 mln. (67,800 transactions, 2.8 mln.
contracts). The maximal volume of trades was reported on 17 July and accounted for Rb. 1.659 bln., while the minimal one-488,12 mln. was noted on 25 July.
The market for corporate bonds. In July this particular market as a whole was characterized by a notable rise in yields of the majority of papers, while frightened by falling quotations and the overall instability, the majority of investors preferred to fix profits and for some time to restrain themselves from active operations. At the same time the fall in quotations was noted against the background formed by lowering trade volumes. More specifically, during the first three weeks of July the turnover of the corporate securities section at MICEX accounted for RUR 16.06 bln. Plus, by July 18 the yield rates on the most durable obligations (with a 3-5 year maturity) reached the level of 12-13% annualized, while the yields on some issues hit 14-16% (+3-5 p.p. against the government bonds with a comparable maturity). So, during last three weeks the market for corporate bonds basically found itself in the mainstream of the general trend to a gradually soaring yields noted on the market for government bonds.
During the month in question, a few new placements took place: on July 2, Tatneft placed its 3-year bonds worth a total of RUR 1.5 bln., followed on 3 July by Severstal with 4-year obligations with the face-value of пунктов млн. долларов США 03.06.02.07.30.07.27.08.24.09.22.10.126.96.36.199.21.01.18.02.20.03.17.04.20.05.19.06.16.07.RUR 3 bln. and yields to maturity about 9.7%. On July 10 Pervaya Ipotechnaya Kompania (PIK) placed its 2-year obligations with the face-value of RUR 750 mln. The third week of July saw rather an intense activity on the primary market, with 3-year obligations placed by OAO LOMO, ZAO Severo-Zapadnaya Lesopromyshlennaya Kompania and OAO Sibirtelekom whose respective volumes of placement made up RUR 700, 300 and 1,530 mln.
Динамика котировок российских голубых фишек с 30 июня 2003 г 2003 г. по 25 июля 2003 г.
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Изменение цены (%) Fig. Dynamics of quotations of Russian blue chips between June 30, 2003-July 25, External factors of dynamics of the national securities market. In July, the bullish trend was prevailing the world markets. In the first week of the month Brent overshot USD 28/barrel and on 4 July hit USD 28.6/barrel. The price rise for oil was fueled primarily by the continuos strike in Nigeria and a hurricane in the Mexican Bay. Later, the next week, the conflict between the Nigerian government and tradeunions was resolved, which immediately resulted in a price adjustment that continued until 9 July.
Nonetheless, the price rise renewed shortly afterwards, particularly due to a storm in the Mexican Bay and the cease of operations at two oil refineries in Texas and Louisiana. In addition, a representative of the US Military Engineering Corps in Iraq reckoned that it would take the country not less than a year to re-establish the pre-war oil output (some 2 mln. barrel a day). Eventually, on July 14 Brent soared up to USD 29.35/barrel, while favorable reports on the US oil products reserves the International Energy Agency and the US Oil Institute published in the middle of the month led to some price adjustments, which, however, proved to be rather short-living: on 21 July, Brent cost 29.19/barrel.
ЮКОС РАО ГМК Татнефть РАО ЕЭС Мосэнерго НорНикель Ростелеком ЛУКойл НК СИБНЕФТЬ Сбербанк РФ Сургутнефтегаз Цена на сырую нефть Brent Fig.Crude oil (Brent) prices (USD/barrel) 150% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite Индекс РТС 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% Fig.During he period in question, international securities markets still showed a moderate growth: more specifically, since early July (the early 2003) the US DJIA and NASDAQ grew by 24 July by 1.42% (5.87%) and 4.84% (22.85%), along with FTSE 100 in UK rose by 2.94% (3.49), German DAX 30- by долларов за баррель 03.06.05.07.06.08.05.09.07.10.06.11.10.12.27.01.27.02.01.04.12.05.11.06.14.07.03.06.27.07.19.09.12.11.05.01.28.02.23.04.16.06.4.79% (8.69%), French CAC-40 - by 2.36% (-1.19%). This trend was also noted across Asian markets:
Nikkei grew by 6.47% (10.99%), Seoul Composite- by 4.39% (10.67%), Straits Time- by 7.00% (15.96%).
Positive dynamics were also noted in some emerging markets: in Brazil, Bovespa soared at 6.07%, while the emerging economies index increment computed y MSCI made up 4.08% in July. The only economy with negative change rates in the stock market in July was Turkey, whose ISE National-100 as lost 3.76% (1.16%) since early July (early 2003).
The dynamics of the US securities market over the first two weeks of July was mostly determined by favorable corporate news, while economic statistics was mostly negative. It was expectations of relatively positive financial results of the US corporations’ performance over the past quarter that served as an additional positive factor that supported high prices in the market. During the consequent two weeks positive dynamics was supported mostly by favorable economic news. More specifically, for the first time over several past months the US saw a decline in the level of primary unemployment, while in June there occurred a rise in industrial output, retail services and permits for new construction. The optimistic mood was also fueled by Mr. Greenspan’s statement about another decrease of the Federal Reserve rate.
Despite negative macroeconomic indices noted in EU and generally loose financial performance of a number of EU companies, in July there was noted a rise in financial indicators, though it still is the US securities market that propels the rise in the European stock markets.
LUKoil On July 1, the company signs a Founding Agreement with Gasprom on establishment an open-end jointstock company CentrKaspneftegas. The purpose of its creation is to participate as an RF authorized agent in the development of Centralnaya geological structure in the Caspian sea along with Kazakh authorized agentKazMunaiGas. The authorized capital of the newly created company is RUR 10 mln., and each participant in this joint venture holds 50% of its stock. LUKoil experts reckon the carbohydrate reserves of Centralnaya account for 512 mln. t. of conditional fuel.
In addition, in July the Board of Directors of LUKoil was convened: they approved the composition of the Board and plan of their operations for 2003-2004.
Sibneft In late June, Moody’s confirmed Ba2 index with respect to the company’s main rating and Ba3- on its rating of unsecured obligations. That became possible thanks to a lower level of the company’s borrowing since the start of the year and the envisaged merger with YUKOS.
The company’s Board Meeting in mid-July ruled to convene an early shareholder meeting on 18 August, 2003. Shareholders ill be proposed to approve a new version of the company’s charter: more specifically, one of the key changes should be the withdrawal of p.2 Article 80 of the federal law ‘n joint-stock companies’ which suggests that any party acquiring over 30% of the company’s stock is bound to redeem minority shareholders’ share. Such changes are needed o optimize the planned merger with YUKOS.
OAO Tatneft In late June, there happened a shareholder meeting at which the company management reported on its performance in 2002: it became known that the volume of output remained unchanged vs. the prior year and stood at 24 mln. t. In addition, the company has repaid its USD 300 mln.- worth debt on Eurobonds and a USD 112 mln.-worth debt to the Paris club. The meeting ruled that shareholders will be entitled for dividends of 100% of the face-value of privileged and 10% -on ordinary shares.
Norilsky Nickel In July, the company made its investment performance public: in 2002, it proceeded with enhancing the efficiency of its existing production and invested as much as some USD 351 mln., of which 117 mln. - in maintenance and development of its mining production, 20 mln. in refining facilities, 45 mln. -in metallurgy, and 20 mln. - in the energy sector.
It is worthwhile noting that in July the Trade and Economic Council under the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade selected the best exporters in 2002, and the company once again became exporter #in the non-ferrous metal sector.
OAO Slavneft The company’s net consolidated profit in 2002 run up to RUR 13.43 bln. and grew by 26.4% vs. 2001.
The company’s sales amounted to RUR 85.26 bln., thus showing a 3.4% drop vs. the prior year, while the pre-tax profit grew from RUR 14.2 bln. up to 19.61 bln., or at 38%.
OAO Sberbank of Russia Ernst and Young Vneshaudit issues an indisputably positive auditor conclusion on the 2002 Sberbank’s financial accounting in compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards. The Bank’s net profit amounted to RUR 30.5 bln, while the balance- sheet currency grew by 22% vs. 2001 and made up RUR trln. The percent of reserves on possible bad loans dropped from 9.21% in 2001 to 9.12%.
The sufficiency of main capital computed in compliance with the Basel Agreement made up 14.7%, while the sufficiency rate of the overall capital reached 16.0% (with the minimally allowed level of 8%).
YUKOS In early July, the company published its consolidated financial report over the 1st quarter made in compliance with the US GAAP that was examined by Price Waterhouse Coopers.
In the 1st quarter 2003 the volume of proceeds from sales and other revenues generated from main operations grew up to USD 3.898 bln. or at 94% up compared with the respective period of 2002. That became possible thanks to the rise in output and price rise for oil in the domestic and international markets.
The company’s net profit in the 1st quarter 2003 accounted for USD 1.267 bln. vs. USD 462 mln. EBITDA for the first quarter 003 made up USD 1.664 bln. vs. 667 mln. reported over the respective period of the prior year, while the volume of oil output accounted for 19.2 mln. t. (140.5 mln. barrel), or at 22.6% more tan in the 1st quarter 2002, while the volume of oil refining grew by 21.7% vs. the same period of time. As Maizeikiu Nafta oil refinery’s performance was included in YUKOS’s consolidated report, it boosted the volume of the company’s oil refinery.
RAO UES Russia The company published its fully consolidated financial report over 2002 made in compliance with IFAS.
According to the report, gains grew by 16.1% and accounted for USD 15.2 bln., while operational costs rose by 15% and reached USD 14.6 bln. As a result, EBITDA grew by 10.5% and made up USD 2.3 bln., while the reported net profit accounted for some USD 1 bln., thus showing a 22% decline vs. the prior year.
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