MMC “Norilsky Nickel”. Russian Prime Minister M. Kasyanov held a meeting with representatives of MMC, Gokhran, Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The parties came to a fundamental agreement on the issue concerning the right of platinoids exporters to conclude direct long-term contracts with buyers on their own.
AvtoVAZ. AvtoVAZ published its final results for 2001 according to international accounting standards. The net profit grew almost five times against 2000 and amounted to $447 million. The receipts made $3.649 billion. The operational profit equaled $232 million (in 2000 – $4.5 million, in 1999 – $925 thousand). The EBITDA reached $399 million, i.e. 160% higher the value in 2000 ($million).
Gazprom. “Gazprom” released its financial results for the first half of 2002 according to the Russian accounting standards. The non-consolidated net profit of the company declined by 41% in annual terms and was equal to 41 billion roubles. The company officials said in 2002 the non-consolidated net profit (according to the Russian accounting standards) would made $2 billion, i.e. by 18% less than in 2001.
TABLE Dynamics of the Foreign Stock Indexes change for last change since beginning of as of July 24, 2002 value month (%) the year (%) RTS (Russia) 324.96 -8.15% 24.96% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 8 191.29 -11.38% -19.19% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1 290.23 -11.82% -35.07% S&P 500 (USA) 843.43 -14.79% -27.35% FTSE 100 (UK) 3 777.10 -18.88% -27.95% DAX-30 (Germany) 3 632.66 -17.11% -29.60% CAC-40 (France) 3 023.69 -22.43% -34.62% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 4 607.80 -22.94% -28.20% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 9 947.72 -6.35% -5.64% change for last change since beginning of as of July 24, 2002 value month (%) the year (%) Bovespa (Brazil) 9 937.00 -10.79% -26.82% IPC (Mexico) 6 010.42 -6.97% -7.06% IPSA (Chile) 81.46 -6.60% -25.33% Straits Times (Singapore) 1 522.80 -1.94% -6.35% Seoul Composite(Korea) 721.41 -2.87% 3.99% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 9 714.96 3.57% -29.51% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index 302.076 -5.53% -4.17% Foreign exchange market.
In July 2002 the Russian foreign exchange market demonstrated a traditional seasonal appreciation of rouble in nominal terms, which was intensified this year by a fall of the US exchange rate against most of national currencies. The situation in the forex market in short run also looks rather stable, as the oil prices remain at the current level (above 20 $/bbl). This fact allows the Bank of Russia to state possible reduction in the rate of compulsory sales of export receipts from 50% to 30–35% just this year without any harm to rouble exchange rate dynamics and the Russian foreign reserves.
In total, in July 2002, the official dollar exchange rate slid from 31.4471 roubles/$ to 31.roubles/$, i.e. by 0.02% (-0.27% annualised, see Fig. 7). The ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT increased from 31.5134 roubles/$ to 31.5166 roubles/$ (as of July 26), i.e. by 0.01%. The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate went up from 31.5113 roubles/$ to 31.5217 roubles/$ (as of July 26), i.e. by 0.03%. According to preliminary estimates, in July the trading volumes by dollar amounted up to billion roubles.
Dynamics of the Rouble / Dollar Exchange Rates in 31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,30,30,30,30,30,30,The official dollar exchange rate 30,30,The average-weighted 'today' dollar exchange rate 30,30,The average-weighted 'tomorrow' dollar exchange rate 30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,In mid-July 2002 euro got parity with the US dollar (see Fig. 8), but in the end of the month it slid once again to the level of 0.98–0.99 $/euro. As we mentioned in previous reports, the main reason for devaluation of the US currency was the deterioration of the US balance of payments, aggravated by withdrawal of capital from the US assets after a number of scandals with financial accounts of the biggest corporations. However a lack of positive news on development in the European economies prevented the single European currency from consolidation at the previously attained level.
roubles/US dollar 01.01.11.01.18.01.25.01.01.02.08.02.15.02.22.02.02.03.12.03.19.03.26.03.02.04.09.04.16.04.23.04.28.04.09.05.18.05.24.05.31.05.07.06.15.06.22.06.29.06.06.07.13.07.20.07.27.07.FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate on the International Markets 1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,In July, the rouble/euro official exchange rate grew from 31.0792 roubles/euro to 31.roubles/euro, i.e. by 0.89% over the month. According to preliminary estimates, in July 2002, the total trading volume on euro exceeded 5 billion roubles.
Dynamics of EURO Official Excnange Rate in 31,31,30,30,29,29,28,28,27,27,26,26,USD/EURO 01.01.08.01.15.01.22.01.29.01.05.02.12.02.19.02.26.02.05.03.12.03.19.03.26.03.02.04.09.04.16.04.23.04.30.04.07.05.14.05.21.05.28.05.04.06.11.06.18.06.25.06.02.07.09.07.16.07.23.07.rubles/euro 01.01.12.01.22.01.30.01.07.02.15.02.23.02.06.03.15.03.23.03.02.04.10.04.18.04.26.04.08.05.18.05.25.05.04.06.12.06.21.06.29.06.TABLE 2.
Indicators of Financial Markets.
March April May June July* Inflation rate (monthly) 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 1.0% Annualised inflation rate by the month’s tendency 14.03% 15.39% 22.42% 6.17% 12.7% The RCB refinancing rate 25% 23% 23% 23% 23% Annualised yield to maturity on OFZ issues 15.80% 16.64% 15.61% 14.86% 14.5% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ market 4.78 11.33 14.98 12.99 9.a month (billion roubles) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds by the end of the month (% a year):
4th tranche 6.86% 6.19% 6.05% 6.29% 6.2% 5th tranche 10.13% 9.88% 9.77% 10.43% 10.6% 6th tranche 9.65% 8.80% 9.02% 9.75% 9.8% 7th tranche 10.23% 10.26% 10.11% 10.65% 10.8% 8th tranche 9.63% 8.92% 9.09% 9.55% 9.6% INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:
Overnight 17.79% 8.86% 4.09% 14.81% 7% 1 week 22.84% 12.34% 7.08% 22.26% 8% Official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the 31.1192 31.1963 31.3071 31.4471 31.end of the month Official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by the end of 27.1515 28.1453 29.3254 31.0792 30.the month Average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US 0.58% 0.25% 0.36% 0.45% -0.02% dollar growth Average annualized exchange rate of ruble per euro 1.65% 3.66% 4.19% 6.81% -0.89% growth volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for 426.3 468.9 454.1 344.3 the month (millions of USD) the value of the RTS Index by the end of the month 350.75 386.10 391.26 353.79 growth in the RTS Index (% a month) 20.64% 10.08% 1.34% -9.58% -6% * Estimates S. Drobyshevsky, D. Skripkin Investment in the real sector The problems of analyzing and measuring dynamics of investment flows as an alternative source of investment in the domestic economy have grown into a plumbing issue now. The decline in capital flight determined by the change in domestic state of affairs and the increase in investment demand on the part of export-oriented industries of the fuel and metallurgical complexes have had a favorable impact on dynamics of economic growth.
The emergence of an open market economy in Russia and its vigorous integration into the world economic system is back-upped by a growing interest of foreign capital in this huge and promising market.
With the renewal of economic growth rate in the national economy between 1999 to 2001, one can note the trend to advanced growth in investment relative to dynamics of GDP. In 2001, the share of investment in capital assets accounted for 17.2% of GDP vs. 14.8% in 1998. As concerns direct investment, Russia’s positions appear rather humble: the country holds the 21st position among Central and Eastern European countries and CIS nations in terms of the amount of FDI per capita.
The period of a low investment activity of 1998-99, which was determined both by domestic problems and the general decline in business activity in the world market, was replaced by an intense expansion of demand for investment resources between 2000-01. Russian domestic investment grew by 1/3 over the past 3 years compared to the crisis 1998. The year of 2001 once again saw the advanced rise in foreign investment compared to dynamics of internal investment in capital assets - foreign investors intensify their presence in the national market.
Dynamics of domestic and foreign investment in Russian economy between 1995- 2001, as % to the prior year 600 400,350,300,250,300 200,150,Investment in capital 100,50,1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0 0,Investment in capital assets Portfolio foreign investment Foreign direct investment Between 1995 through 2001 the structure of foreign investment as undergoing substantial changes.
Given that in 1995 the share of FDI accounted for 67.7%, in 2001 it slid to just 27.9%. FDI react to changes in a state of affairs less intensively than mobile portfolio investment, which can be proved by a fast reaction of the latter on the 1998 crisis and the economic growth of 2000-2001. Portfolio investment reached their peak in 1997, when they accounted for 5.5% of the overall volume of foreign investment in Russia. After the decline in their share to 0.3% in 1999 due to non-residents’ exodus from the national securities market and the consequent rapid growth over the past two years, their share currently accounts for 3.2%.
In the conditions of economic growth it has become clear that investment management did not appear coordinated with dynamic processes of the restructuring of the economy. While analyzing dynamics of foreign investment in the national economy, one should focus on the following phenomena: on the one hand, he structure of foreign investment inflow shows a systematic rise of the share of Cyprus and other “tax paradise” nations, while Russian investment increasingly tend to be placed in the countries with unstable economic and political systems. So, foreign investment is coming from the countries with low risks, while Russian investment resources are placed in ones with far greater risks.
The problems of analyzing and measuring dynamics of investment flows have grown into a plumbing issue now. It is the evaluation of the scale of capital flight out of Russia as an alternative source of investment in the domestic economy that forms one of the hottest issues under discussion.
According to Russia’s Central Bank, in 2001 capital flight roughly accounted for USD 1.7 bln., i.e. at 7.4 bln. down vs. 2001. Relative to foreign trade turnover the net capital flight dropped from 16.2% in 2000 to 10.9% in 2001, while relative to GDP its rate accounts form 10.2% and 4.5%, respectively.
The decline in capital flight determined by the change in domestic state of affairs and the increase in investment demand on the part of export-oriented industries of the fuel and metallurgical complexes have had a favorable impact on dynamics of economic growth.
The positive development of this particular trend is determined by a consistent changing of the legal field in investment area. The absence of investment financial institutions, nascent state of the securities market, and the unstable legal field complicate the process of keeping private capital within the country and attracting foreign investors in the economy.
O. Izryadnova The real sector: trends and factors According to preliminary results of the Ist half 2002, the increment in GDP accounted for 3.8% relative its respective period of the prior year. This year the structure of final demand is changing under the impact of the advanced rise in households’ final consumption compared with gross savings.
It is a steady decline of profitability rates that forms one of the major factors inhibiting investment activity.
According to preliminary results of the Ist half 2002, the increment in GDP accounted for 3.8% relative its respective period of the prior year. The volume of industrial output grew by 3.2% vs. the respective period of the prior year, while the volume of construction grew by 2.8%, and the one of agricultural output - by 4.0%. As concerns the sector for services, it was infrastructure sectors - trade and communication- that developed most intensively. The IInd quarter 2002 saw an acceleration of growth rates practically across all the industries and other sectors of the economy. Positive dynamics of development of basic sectors along with a favorable state of affairs in the area of foreign trade have determined the nature of structural shifts in GDP. This year, the economy keeps the trend to advanced rise in domestic demand compared with the external one; this trend has been registered since the IVth quarter 2000. In the Ist half 2002, the increment in domestic demand accounted for 4.3% relative to its respective index of he prior year, and it fully determined the dynamics of economic growth. Let us note that given that in the Ist half 2001 economic growth was determined by an intense increase in investment, this year the structure of final demand changes under the impact of an advanced growth of households’ final consumption. According to preliminary estimates, the latter index grew by 4.9% vs.
the Ist half 2001, while investment in capital assets grew by 1.8%.
FIG.Change in dynamics of GDP by components of final demand between 1999 through 2002, as % to the respective period of the prior year --GDP Investment in capital assets Final consumption Expansion of final consumption is determined by a gradual improvement of social parameters of economic development. The emergence of this specific trend forms a logical consequence of the strategy aimed at renewing the pre-crisis living standards. Over the period in question the increment in the population’s real incomes accounted for 7.9% vs. the respective index of the Ist half 2001, while the one in real salaries and wages surged by 8.4%, and the increment in monthly pensions due accounted for 2.6%.
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