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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES (July) 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 021018 of 09.11.95 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru 1 The state of the federal budget........................................................................................................3 Monetary Policy.............................................................................................................................6 Financial Markets...........................................................................................................................8 Investment in the real sector..........................................................................................................16 The real sector: trends and factors.................................................................................................18 The new guidelines for the government innovation policy in the high-tech area............................20 The IET industrial business survey: July 2002...............................................................................23 The state and prospects for providing Russian military with housing.............................................24 Foreign trade.................................................................................................................................27 2 The state of the federal budget TABLE 1 The execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation as % of GDP, cash-based execution).

IV`02 V`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 I`01 II`01 III`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 Revenues Corporate profit tax 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,0% 9,2% 9,0% 9,1% 9,3% 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,7% 6,8% 6,7% 6,7% 6,7% 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% Total- taxes and charges 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% Non- tax revenues 3,6% 4,1% 4,1% 4,0% 3,9% 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% Revenues, total 1,1% 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% Expenditure 15,2% 15,7% 15,7% 16,3% 16,6% 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% Public administration 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% National defense 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% International activities Judicial power 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 1,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,5% 2,7% 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Services provided for the national economy 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 0,7% 1,1% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% Servicing of public debt 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,6% 0,8% 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% Expenditure, total 1,3% 1,6% 1,9% 2,1% 2,0% 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 3,7% 3,3% 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,3% 3,1% 2,9% 3,0% 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% Budget deficit (-) 10,4% 14,4% 14,2% 14,1% 14,2% 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% Domestic financing 5,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,4% 3,7% 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% Other taxes, duties and payments -3,7% -0,8% -0,6% -1,1% -1,7% -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% Total- taxes and charges -2,1% -1,7% -2,1% -2,3% -2,0% -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% Non- tax revenues -5,8% -2,5% -2,6% -3,4% -3,7% -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% TABLE The execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing) I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`Total 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,8% 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9% 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and 1,7% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% security activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% national economy Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 3,2% 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 2,5% 2,7% 3,3% 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% Total expenditure 15,3% 18,3% 17,2% 16,4% 16,2% 16,2% 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% Proficit (+) / deficit (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,7% 1,6% 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% The data on execution of the federal budget over the first quarter 2002 are given in Table 11.

Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

As of June 1, 2002, the revenues to the federal budget accounted for 20.9 % of GDP, including tax revenues at 19.6 %, while expenditures made up 17.1 % of GDP (19.4% of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding ), including non-interest ones 14.6 % of GDP (16.9 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 3.8 % of GDP (1.4 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through May basically show rather a stable conditions. The tax revenues in January through May 2002 made up 17.4 % of GDP (exclusive of the single social tax).

When compared with the last years indicators, it is worth noting some rise in revenues from VAT, a slight decline in excises and the continuous decrease of revenues from taxes on foreign trade.

The expenditures on the servicing of the public debt in January through May 2002 made up 2.5 % of GDP (which is significantly below 3.3 % reported in 2001). As concerns other expenditures of the federal budget, it shall be noted that in May the expenditures for national defense increased.

As concerns the composition of expenditures on social policy, subsidies to the Pension Fund to over the basic part of labor pensions at the expense of the single social tax accounted for 2.7% of GDP, while the subsidies to the Pension Fund to cover military and law enforcement agency veterans pensions stood at another 0.5% of GDP.

As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures over the first half 2002 made 18.9 %, or at 2.2% of GDP over the expenditures in the preceding year. Should the subsidies from PF at the expense of SST be disregarded, the respective index would account for 16.2%, being equal to the last years value.

Between the beginning of 2002 through July 1 the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) have grown by Rb. 90 bln. (1.9% of GDP) in terms of cash-based execution and by 16 bln.

(0.3% of GDP) in terms of actual financing TABLE Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0 115,1 122,0 122,1 104,5 112,9 127,0 127,5 124,3 141,4 160,8 213,% % % % % % % % % % % % I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3 160,5 181,3 205,8 233,1 186,9 181,0 186,4 173,1 181,1 201,7 254,% % % % % % % % % % % % I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4 198,4 227,6 267,5 252,2 233,3 231,9 235,6 219,4 237,5 247,3 360,% % % % % % % % % % % % I II III IV V VI 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 240,9% 218,0% The level of tax receipts to the federal budget in June 2002 (minus SST) in comparable prices showed a notable decline compared with prior months.

The dynamics of actual tax arrears to the federal budget is given in Fig.13. In April, both VAT- and corporate profit tax-related arrears showed some growth.

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

Since 2001 the form of the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes 1. ( % 1999 ) 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% TABLE Execution of the RF consolidated budget (as % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Taxes 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Revenues 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Expenditures -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% Deficit I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Taxes 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Revenues 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Expenditures 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% Deficit I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Taxes 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Revenues 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Expenditures 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% Deficit I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Taxes 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Revenues 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Expenditures 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% Deficit I II III IV V 28,7% Taxes 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 32,9% Revenues 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 18,3% Expenditures 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% Deficit The level of tax revenues to the consolidated budget in January through May somewhat increased in comparison with the prior 2 months. Besides, the surplus of the consolidated budget still exceeds the level observed over the prior year, though it declined vs. the prior months.

The forecast of tax revenues to the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the Table below4. The estimate was revised vs. the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin with account of the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy The final figures for June indicated a higher inflation rate than predicted. The RF Goskocmstat reported that the consumer price index rose only by 0.5%, i.e. the prices grew at zero pace during the second half of the month (see Fig. 1). The commodity structure of the consumer prices increment was as follows: due to seasonal factors, the food stuffs price index went down by 0.2%, while the services price index grew by 1.6%, and the non-food foods price index by 1.1%. As it occurred in May, the highest price rise was registered for petrol 12.3%. We should remind that a similar growth in petroleum prices was noted in early summer 1999 and was related to the renewal of petrol prices in US dollar equivalent up to 0.30.35 US$ per litre after the 1998 rouble devaluation. During the consequent two years petrol prices have been rising at lower rates than the US dollar, with the respective gap being fairly smaller, though, and, in our view, the recent price hike has been of an analogous nature. Moreover, in spring 2002 all restrictions on oil export were lifted, and in presence because of high oil prices in the world market, the domestic prices also went up.

So, the inflation rate (measured by CPI) in Russia made up about 9.0% for the first half of (12.8% in the first half of 2001). According to our estimates, even being allowed for some increase in CPI growth rate in July (the preliminary data indicate the consumer price growth was 1.01.1%), the inflation in 2002 matches the Governments projections and should not exceed 13.5%.

FIGURE 1.

Consumer Price Index in 1,2% 1,0% 0,8% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

% a week 1-7.4.8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.4-10.2.4-10.3.15-21.4.6-12.5.8-14.7.7-13.01.11-17.2.18-24.2.11-17.3.18-24.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.13-19.5.20-26.5.10-16.6.17-23.6.24-30.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.29.4-5.5.27.5-2.6.14-20.01.21-27.01.28.01-3.02.31.12.01-6.1.In July 2002 the Bank of Russia changed its procedure for calculation of foreign reserves From now on the reserves exclude short-term foreign liabilities of the CBR. According to the Bank statement, the new procedure, allows to improve self-descriptiveness of the indicator. As a result, the recalculated foreign reserves became lower by approximately $1.5 billion, but their dynamics did not changed (see Fig. 2). At the same time, it is worth noting that the preliminary data gave no evidence in favour of earlier forecasts about possible positive capital account balance of the RF balance of payments in the second quarter of 2002.

FIGURE 2.

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