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Section The Real Sector Table Production and Processing of Crude Oil in the Russian Federation in 20002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Oil production including gas 323.2 348.1 379.6 421.4 458.8 470.0 480.5 491.3 488.5 494.condensate, mln t Primary oil refining, mln t 173 179 185 190 195 208 220 229.0 236.3 236.Share of oil refining in its 53.5 51.4 48.7 45.1 42.5 44.3 45.8 46.6 48.4 47.production, % Processing depth of 71 71 70 70 71 71.6 71.9 71.7 72.0 72.oilstock, % Source: Federal service of state statistics, RF Ministry of Energy.

Table Production of Crude Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in 2000(in % to preceding year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 Crude oil, including gas condensate 106.0 107.7 109.0 111.0 108.Primary oil refining 102.7 103.2 103.3 102.7 102.Gasoline 103.6 100.6 104.9 101.2 103.Diesel oil 104.9 102.0 104.7 102.0 102.Heating oil 98.3 104.2 107.1 100.3 97.Natural gas 98.5 99.2 101.9 103.4 101.2005 2006 2007 2008 Oil, including gas condensate 102.2 102.1 102.1 99.3 101.Primary oil refining 106.2 105.7 103.8 103.2 99.Gasoline 104.8 107.4 102.1 101.8 100.Diesel oil 108.5 107.0 103.4 104.1 97.Heating oil 105.8 104.5 105.2 101.9 100.Natural gas 100.5 102.4 99.2 101.7 87.Source: Federal service of state statistics.

In 2009 Rosneft, LUKOil, TNK-BP, Surgutneftegas and Gazprom were the largest petroleum producers in the country. The share of these five companies constituted 77% of the overall oil production in Russia. The share of medium size companies (Tatneft, Slavneft, Russneft and Bashneft) amounted to 14.2% of the overall oil extraction. The share of other producers which number over 100 small oil producing organizations accounted for only 5.3% (Table 8).

Distinctive feature of the recent years was the increased role of state companies in the oil sector which was due to takeover of private companies. In 2004 Rosneft took over major oil producing enterprise of YUKOS Yuganskneftegas, and in 2005 Gazprom bought control of the Sakhalin-2 project which was implemented by foreign investors under the production sharing agreement. In 2007 the share of state companies in the oil sector went up when Rosneft bought control of the remaining oil producing and oil refining assets of YUKOS, which was declared bankrupt in 2006.

As a result of redistribution of assets in the oil sector, Rosneft has become the largest oil company in Russia, and the share of state (in the federal ownership) companies in the overall oil production has come up to 32%. For comparison it is possible to note that in 2003 the share of Rosneft and Gazprom in the overall oil production amounted only to 7.3% RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Structure of Oil Production in 2007 Share in Share in Share in Oil produc- Oil produc- Oil producoverall pro- overall pro- overall protion in 2007, tion in 2008, tion in 2009, duction, duction, duction, mln t mln t mln t % % % Russia total 491.3 100.0 488.5 100.0 494.2 100.Rosneft 110.7 22.5 113.8 23.3 116.3 23.LUKOil 91.4 18.6 90.2 18.5 92.2 18.N-BP 69.4 14.1 68.8 14.1 70.2 14.Surgutneftegas 64.5 13.1 61.7 12.6 59.6 12.Gazprom + Gazprom neft 45.8 9.3 43.4 8.9 41.9 8.Of which:

Gazprom 13.2 2.7 12.7 2.6 12.0 2.Gazprom neft 32.6 6.6 30.7 6.3 29.9 6.Tatneft 25.7 5.2 26.1 5.3 26.1 5.Slavneft 20.9 4.3 19.6 4.0 18.9 3.Russneft 14.2 2.9 14.2 2.9 12.7 2.Bashneft 11.6 2.4 11.7 2.4 12.2 2.NOVATEK 2.6 0.5 2.7 0.6 3.3 0.PSA operators 13.8 2.8 12.0 2.5 14.8 3.Other producers 20.7 4.2 24.1 4.9 26.0 5.State companies total:

Rosneft+ Gazprom+ Gazprom neft 156.5 31.9 157.2 32.2 158.2 32.Source: RF Ministry of Energy, authors calculations.

Gazprom has traditionally dominated in the field of gas production. At the same time, as long as decline in gas production was mainly due to Gazprom, its share in the overall gas production dipped to 77.5% in 2009 (Table 9). In such a case proportion of oil companies in gas production went up (to 10.6%), of NOVATEK (to 5.5%) and PSA operators (to 3.1%).

Table Structure of Gas Production in 2007Gas produc- Share in Gas produc- Share in Gas produc- Share in tion in 2007, overall pro- tion in 2008, overall pro- tion in 2009, overall probn cubic duction, bn cubic duction, bn cubic duction, meters % meters % meters % Russia total 654.1 100.0 664.9 100.0 596.4 100.Gazprom + Gazprom neft 551.9 84.4 553.1 83.2 466.6 78.Of which:

Gazprom 550.1 84.1 550.9 82.9 462.3 77.Oil companies 56.9 8.7 54.8 8.2 63.5 10.NOVATEK 28.5 4.4 30.8 4.6 32.8 5.PSA operators 6.7 1.0 8.5 1.3 18.3 3.Other producers 10.1 1.5 17.6 2.6 15.2 2.State companies total:

Rosneft + Gazprom + Gaz- prom neft 568.9 87.0 566.1 85.1 484.0 81.Source: RF Ministry of Energy, authors calculations.

Reduction in the growth rates of crude oil production is due to first of all objective deterioration of its production conditions. Considerable part of producing fields have reached the stage of declining production (brown fields), and the new oil deposits in the majority of cases are marked by worse mining-and-geological and geographic parameters, their development requires excessive capital, maintenance and transportation costs.

Sharp cut in gas production in 2009 (by 12.1% in comparison with preceding year) was due to a reduction in domestic and foreign demand (due to economic recession and relatively Section The Real Sector warm weather conditions), as well as to forced cut in gas supplies to Europe at the beginning of 2009 due to conflict with Ukraine. In January-November 2009 export of natural gas dipped by 19.1% in relation to the corresponding period of the preceding year (at the same time gas supplies outside of CIS dipped by 27.7%).

3.4.3. Dynamics and Structure of Petroleum and Gas Export Against the backdrop of oil production decline in 2008 there was a somewhat cut in crude oil export volume, however, growth of oil export resumed in 2009 (Table 10).In 2009 net export of crude oil and petroleum products amounted to 370.1 mln t or went up by 3.45 in comparison with preceding year. The proportion of net export of crude oil and petroleum products in the overall oil production came to 74.9%. Net export of crude oil in 2009 constituted 49.8% of its production volume. The share of export in fuel oil production in January-November 2009 amounted to 81.5%, diesel oil 59.0%, gasoline 12.9% (for comparison: in 1999 the share of export in gasoline production constituted 7.2% and in 2005 18.5%, in 2006 18.3%, in 2007 17.1% and in 2008 12.5%).

In 2009 a decline in import of petroleum products was observed, the share of import for coverage of domestic demand also dipped. In 2009 the share of import in gasoline stock constituted only 0.5% (for comparison: in the first half of 1998 proportion of import in gasoline stock amounted to 8.7%, in 2008 0.7%). For diesel oil and fuel oil this indicator amounted to 0.3-0.4%.

Table Export of Crude Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas from Russia in 20022009 (in % to preceding year) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 months Oil total 113.9 117.8 115.0 98.4 98.0 104.0 94.0 102.Of which:

Countries outside CIS 109.9 118.9 116.3 99.1 98.0 104.8 92.6 103.To CIS countries 137.3 112.4 108.3 94.9 98.0 99.4 102.6 94.Petroleum products total 118.5 103.6 105.5 117.9 106.3 108.0 105.0 105.Of which:

Countries outside CIS 119.1 102.6 104.9 119.1 104.5 107.6 102.0 107.To CIS countries 102.8 132.3 117.9 94.6 148.8 115.3 152.2 85.Gas total 102.4 102.0 105.5 103.7 97.6 94.6 101.8 80.Source: Federal service of state statistics.

In 2009 in spite of the reduction in demand for crude oil in Europe due to economic recession, Russia managed to increase its volume of oil export in natural terms. This was due to a fall in oil supplies by some other petroleum producers Norway, Great Britain, the OPEC countries.

In Norway and Great Britain this was due to objective fall of oil production as a result of depletion of producing fields, in the OPEC countries accomplishment of commitments taken by cartel aimed to reduce petroleum production volumes by the cartel member countries.

At the same time, in 2009 gas export volume sharply dipped. In January-November gas export shrank by 19.1% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year due to considerable reduction in supplies to Europe. As a result, proportion of net export in gas production fell from 28.3% to 25.3% in 2009.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Ratio of Production, Consumption and Export of Petroleum and Natural Gas in 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (estimate) Oil, mln t Production 323..2 348.1 379.6 421.4 458.8 470.0 480..5 491..3 488..5 494.Export total 144..5 159.7 187..5 223..5 257.4 252..5 248.4 258.4 243.1 248.Export to countries outside CIS 127.6 137.1 154.8 186.4 217..3 214.4 211..2 221..3 204..9 211.Export to CIS countries 16..9 22.7 32.7 37.1 40.1 38.0 37..3 37.1 38..2 36.Net export 138.7 154.7 181..3 213.4 253..2 250.1 246.1 255.7 240.6 246.Domestic consumption 123.0 122..9 123..5 129.8 124..2 123.1 131..2 124.1 130.4 124.Net export in % to production 42..9 44.4 47.8 50.6 55..2 53.2 51.2 52.0 49..3 49.Petroleum products, mln t Export total 61..9 70.8 75.0 78.4 82.1 97.0 103..5 111.8 117..9 124..Export to countries outside CIS 58.4 68..3 72..5 74..9 78.0 93.1 97.7 105.1 107.6 115.Export to CIS countries 3..5 2..5 2.6 3..5 4.1 3..9 5.8 6.7 10..3 8.Net export 61..5 70..5 74.8 78.2 81.4 96.8 103..2 111..5 117..5 123..Oil and petroleum products, mln y Net export of crude and oil prod- 200..2 225..2 256.1 291.6 334.6 346..9 349..3 367..2 358.1 370.ucts Net export of crude and oil prod- 61..9 64.7 67..5 69..2 72..9 73.8 72.7 74.7 73..3 74..ucts in % to oil production Natural gas, bln cubic meters Production 584..2 581..5 594..5 620..3 634.0 636.0 656.2 654.1 664..9 596.Export total 193..8 180..9 185..5 189..3 200.4 207..3 202.8 191..9 195.4 158.Export to countries outside CIS 133.8 131..9 134..2 142.0 145..3 159.8 161.8 154.4 158.4 114..Export to CIS countries 60.0 48.9 51..3 47..3 55.1 47..5 41.0 37..5 37.0 43.Net export 189.7 176.8 178..3 180..5 193..5 199.6 195..3 184..5 187..9 150.Domestic consumption 394..5 404.7 416.2 439.8 440..5 436.4 460..9 469.6 477..0 445.Net export in % to production 32..5 30.4 30.0 29.1 30..5 31.4 29.8 28.2 28..3 25..volume Source: Federal service of state statistics, RF Ministry of Energy, Federal Customs Service, authors calculations.

Amid somewhat increase in the share of oil products, export of crude oil still prevailed in the structure of petroleum export and was accounted in 2009 for 66.5% of the overall export of oil and petroleum products. Fuel oil which is used in Europe for further processing and diesel oil constituted major share in the export of petroleum products. Major proportion of energy resources (in 2009 85% of oil, 93% of petroleum products and 72% of gas) was exported to non-CIS countries.

Table Net Export of Petroleum Products in 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (estimate) Net export of petroleum prod- 74.8 78.2 81.4 96.8 103.2 111.5 117.5 123.ucts, mln t Share of petroleum products in 29.2 26.8 24.3 27.9 29.5 30.4 32.8 33.net export of oil and oil products, % Source: Federal service of state statistics, Federal Customs Service, authors calculations.

Analysis of dynamics of Russias oil export over a prolonged time interval indicates increase in the share of petroleum products, which proportion went up from 18.2% to 33.5% in 2009 (Table 12). Amid drastic reduction in domestic petroleum consumption (according to our calculations, it slumped from 269.9 mln t in 1990 to 124.1 mln t in 2009, i.e. more than Section The Real Sector twofold) proportion of net export of oil and petroleum products in the oil production went up during this time interval from 47.7% to 74.9%.

Represented data bear record to a significant strengthening of export orientation of the oil and gas sector in comparison with the pre-reform period. However, one should bear in mind that it is due not only to the increase in absolute export volumes, but to a significant contraction in domestic demand for oil resulting from the market oriented reforms implemented in the Russian economy. During the year preceding the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, amid fast economic growth volumes of domestic oil consumption were sufficiently stable which speaks for a reduction in the oil intensity of Russias GDP.

In 2008 the rise of world prices for crude oil determined appreciable income growth recorded in the oil and gas sector (Fig, 2, 3). Ultimate proceeds from export of oil and major types of petroleum products (gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil) in 2008 came to USD 228.9 bn, which by 38.8% exceeds the volume of earnings from export of oil and oil products recorded in 2007 and represents an all-time high level for the entire post-reform period (Table 13). For comparison it is possible to note that the minimal level of receivables from export of oil was observed amid slump of world prices for crude oil observed in 1998, when export receipts constitute only USD 14 bn.

Table Proceeds from Export of Oil and Oil Products in 20002009 (USD/bn) 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 months Proceeds from export of oil 34.9 33.4 38.7 51.1 74.6 112.4 140.0 164.9 228.9 126.and major types of oil products Source: calculated on the data provide by the Federal service of state statistics.

In 2009 a lower level of world prices for crude oil by contrast to the preceding year determined sizable contraction in export revenues. Ultimate proceeds from export of crude oil and oil products (gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil) in January-November 2009 came to USD bn or to 58% vis--vis the corresponding period of last year (Table 14).

Table Receipts from Export of Oil and Oil Products in 20082009 (USD/ bn) 2008 2008 2008 2009 2008 2009 OctoberII quar- III quar- IV quar- II quar- III quarI quarter I quarter Novemter ter ter ter ter ber Receipts from export of oil and 53.2 64.4 68.9 42.4 25.6 30.6 39.2 30.major types of oil products Source: calculated on the data of Federal service of state statistics.

Table Value and Proportion of Export of Fuel and Energy Commodities in 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 USD bn %* USD bn %* USD bn %* USD bn %* USD bn %* Fuel and energy commodities total 154.7 64.1 196.9 65.4 225.6 64.0 321.1 68.6 201.1 66.Of which:

Oil 83.8 34.7 102.3 34.0 121.4 34.4 161.2 34.4 100.6 33.Natural gas 31.4 13.0 43.9 14.6 44.8 12.7 69.1 14.8 42.0 13.* In % to overall volume of Russias export.

Source: Federal service of state statistics.

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