Fig. 3. Indices of the Physical Volume of GDP, Domestic Fixed Investments and Foreign Investments in 1999–2009, in % to Although insignificant decline in the volume of foreign investments was recorded in the 4Q 2008, crisis developments in the investment sector were clearly revealed in the 1Q when the volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy dipped by 30.3% against the RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks same period of 2008 and by 2.3fold in comparison with the preceding quarter. Global unfavorable situation on the hydrocarbons market and on other raw material resources markets along with instability reported on the global stock markets provoked by the onset of 2009 the outflow of foreign investments from the Russian market. In the 1Q 2009 the amount of transferred profit obtained by foreign investors coupled with repayment of loans and interest payment on those loans was comparable with the amount of foreign investments received over this period. Furthermore, for the first time in the last decade Russia’s investments abroad exceeded the volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy. This trend continued in the 2Q and in the 3Q 2009. In the 4Q 2009 Russian investments abroad constituted only 46.5% of the amount of foreign investment in Russian economy for this period. Increase of interest rates on credits, high investment risks, contraction of domestic demand, unfavorable global marker environment conditioned low level of the investment activity.
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Combined volume of foreign investments in % of GDP Direct foreign investments in % of GDP Source: Federal service of state statistics.
Fig. 4. Level of Inflow of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy in 2004-(in % of GDP) Initial decrease of sovereign credit ratings of Russia due to the global financial crisis took place in December 2008 when international credit ratings agency S&P lowed sovereign rating of Russia from BBB+ to BBB, with negative projection for the credit rating. According to S&P “decrease of sovereign credit rating reflects the risks connected with the sharp contraction of currency reserves and other investment flows, which have resulted in increasing costs and difficulties with access to external financing.” For the same reason Fitch lowed the credit rating of Russia from BBB+ to BBB in February 2009 with negative projection of the rating.
In August 2009 Fitch confirmed the credit rating fixed in February 2009. In its press-release S&P in September 2009 noted that decided not to change sovereign ratings of Russia. Given reason were continued risks for the Russian economy.
Moody’s did not lower credit rating of Russia following S&P and Fitch and confirmed in the end of 2008 its positive projection for the RF promissory notes and deposits, limiting to reviewing projection from positive to stable (in July 2008 Moody’s increased Russia’s credit rating from Baa2 to Baa1 with positive projection for the rating). In the end of October Section The Real Sector Moody’s announced that the sovereign credit rating of Russia will remain in the near future within A3-Baa2 and considers as insignificant chances for its decrease.
In 2009 as a whole foreign investments are estimated to stand at USD81.9 bn or 79.5% against 2008.
The highest dip in net indices (at USD11.1 bn) and relative (at 41.1%) in 2009 was recorded in the direct investment segment. Other investments carried out on repayable basis shrank at USD10.2 bn. At the same time, contributions to the authorized capital at the end of 2009 fell at 49.7% to USD8.0 bn. Loans from foreign joint owners went down at 34.2% to USD 6.4 bn. Thus, the share of loans obtained from foreign joint owners in the structure of direct foreign investments in Russia went up from 36.2% in 2008 to 40.5% in 2009 and the share of contributions in the authorized capital decreased from 58.8% to 50.3%.
Table Volume and Behavior of Investments Received from Foreign Investors in the Russian Economy, across types of investments Mln USD In % to preceding year PortfoTotal Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Other lio 2005 53 651 13 072 453 40 126 132.4 138.8 136.3 130.2006 55 109 13 678 3 182 38 249 102.7 104.6 700.0 95.2007 120 941 27 797 4 194 88 950 219.5 203.2 131.8 232.2008 103 769 27 027 1 415 75 327 85.8 97.2 33.7 84.2009 81 927 15 906 882 65 139 79.0 58.9 62.3 86.Source: Federal service of state statistics.
According to UNCTAD “World Investment Report 2008”, the volume of attracted direct foreign investments in 2008 Russia took 5th place in the world (2007 – 9th, 2006 – 10th, 2005 – 15th) and among developing countries Russia took 2nd place behind China (2005 – 3rd). According to the data represented in the report, in 2008 Russia attracted 4.1% of direct global foreign investments (2007 – 2.8%) due to significant reduction in the inflow of direct foreign investments in developing countries.
50% 39,7% 35,4% 40% 30% 22,0% 17,3% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -14,2% -30% -29,2% -40% 2007 Developed countries Developing countries The world, total Source: UNCTAD, “World Investment Report 2008”.
Fig. 5. Adjustment in the Influx of Direct Foreign Investments in 2007– RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks According to the UNCTAD report contraction of the combined volume of direct foreign investments in the world was recorded gradually starting with the 1Q 2008. In January-March 2009 decrease in the combined direct foreign investments in the world according to estimate constituted 44% against the 1Q 2008. At the same time, it was noted that for the same period the fall of direct foreign investments was recorded in 70 out of 96 countries. In the developed countries influx of direct foreign investments in the 1Q 2009 fell in relation to peak marks recorded in the 4Q 2007 by more than 3fold. In the developing countries peak volumes of direct foreign investments were recorded in 1Q 2008. At the end of the 1Q 2009 their reduction constituted about 40%. Later than anywhere else (starting with the 3Q 2008) the fall of direct foreign investments was recorded in the East European and CIS countries. Decrease of net indices in the East European and CIS countries was much deeper in comparison with combined index and with the data for the developed and developing countries. However, in relative terms at the end of January-March 2009 direct foreign investments in relation to maximum indices of the 2Q 2008 dipped by about half. In the segment of portfolio investments in the Russian economy in 2009 a decrease was noted by 37.7% in comparison with 2008. At the same time, decrease in the investments in shares and stock which constituted the lion’s share of the portfolio investments (2007 – 95.5% of the volume of portfolio investments, 2008 – 79.6%, 2009 – 42.9%).
The volume of other investments in 2009 went down in relation to the corresponding period of 2008 by 13.5%. The share of commercial credits in the structure of other investments at the end of 2009 remained at the level of 2008 and constituted 21.4% (2008 – 21.5%). According to terms of attracted loans, the share of loans exceeding six months remained at the level of 67.9% (2008 – 68.1%).
Thus, in comparison with the preceding year, in 2009 the structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy was subject to certain amendments.
In 2009 foreign investments in industry went down by about one third and constituted 40.3% of the overall volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy. After twofold reduction of investments in commerce in 2008, in 2009 foreign investment in commerce dropped by 4.7%, at the same time their share in the overall volume of foreign investments went up to 27.5%. 2009 has brought back a positive trend in foreign investment in transportation and communication sectors following their downturn by 27.5% a year ago. Foreign investment in the pipeline transportation in 2009 amounted to USD 9.0 bn and exceeded the level of the successful 2007 by 3.2fold. Dynamic growth of foreign investment in the communication sector in 2009 by 5.1fold in comparison with preceding year not only totally offset a fall recorded in 2008 but also ensured expansion of the investment potential by 20% against 2007. As a result, the share of transportation in the structure of foreign investment in 2009 went up to 12.1% against 3.4% in 2008 and 2.8% in 2007, and communication, correspondingly, to 4.5% against 1.3% and 2.7% The global crisis which was triggered by the housing bubble in the United States has sizably affected the real estate sector. Many countries recorded two-digit rates of price slump annualized in the real estate. All that has led to a downturn of the investors’ interest to Russian real estate sector. In 2009 foreign investment in real estate contracted by about half.
Foreign investment in industry at the end of 2009 compared with 2008 recorded a fall by 16.7% in the extraction of minerals (in 2008 decline amounted to 28.7%). Foreign investment in manufacturing industries went down by 34.5% (2008 posted investments growth in manufacturing industry by 6.2%) Investment in the food processing industry declined by 40.0%, in Section The Real Sector chemical industry – 37.6% and constituted USD 2.4bn and USD 1.6 bn correspondingly. Under unfavorable world market price trends on metals foreign investment in metallurgy in contracted 3.2fold constituting USD 4.5 bn compared with the same period a year ago.
Source: Federal service of state statistics.
Fig. 6. Structure of Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy in 1996–2009, in % to total Table Volume, Behavior and Structure of Foreign Investment in the Russian Economy across types of economic activity in 2007–In mln USD In % to preceding year In % to total 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Total 120941 103769 81927 219.5 85.8 79.0 100 100 Industry 50 163 49 704 32 980 203.9 99.1 66.4 41.5 47.9 40.Transportation and 6 703 4 861 13 749 126.5 72.5 282.8 5.5 4.7 16.communication Wholesale and retail 47 310 23 905 22 792 361.4 50.5 95.3 39.1 23 27.sector; maintenance of motor transport, motorcycles, household appliances and personal items Transactions with 8 414 15 378 7 937 140.3 182.8 51.6 7 14.8 9.real estate, lease and services provision Financial activity 4 450 4 977 2 658 94.7 111.8 53.4 3.7 4.8 3.Other sectors 3 901 4 944 1 811 274.7 126.7 36.6 3.2 4.8 2.Source: Federal service of state statistics RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Source: Federal service of state statistics. Data on foreign investment in food processing industry for 2005 are missing.
Fig. 7. Structure of Foreign Investments in Industry in 2005–Direct and portfolio investments in industry decreased in 2009 compared with 2008 by 44.1% and 41.2%. Other investments in industry also went down by 29.5% against a year ago. Thus, the share of other investments in industry went up from 71.1% in 2008 to 75.6% in 2009, the share of direct and portfolio investment for the same period declined from 26.6% and 2.3% to 22.4% and 2.0% correspondingly.
The structure of foreign investments across types of economic activity in industry was subject to adjustments. In the extraction of minerals sector direct investments went down by 36.2% to USD3.2 bn which resulted in contraction of their share in cumulative investments in this sector at the end of 2009 at 30.7% (2008 – 40.2%). The share of other investments in the extraction sector which posted reduction at the end of 2009 by 7.2% (to USD6.8 bn) went up to 65.8% (2008 – 59.0%).
In manufacturing industry in 2009 major part of investments also fell to the share of other investments which compared with 2008 went down by 35.5% constituting in the cumulative indices of the investments in manufacturing industry 80.6% (2008 – 81.9%). Foreign direct investments in manufacturing industries for the period under consideration went down by 30.7%. The share of direct investments in manufacturing industries went up at the end of 2009 to 18.5% (2008 – 17.5%).
The Netherlands and Luxemburg have preserved their positions as large exporters of capital in the geographical structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy in 2009. In 2009 Luxemburg invested the largest amount USD 11.7 bn (14.3% of the overall amount of foreign investment in the Russian economy for the given period), the Netherlands invested USD 11.6 bn (14.2%). China became the third largest investor whose investments at the end of 2009 amounted to USD 9.8 bn. At the same time, the US did not get into the first ten largest exporters of capital to Russia at the end of 2009.
Section The Real Sector 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Netherlands Cyprus Great Britain Germany France Luxemburg Other 2007, % 2008, % 2009, % 2007 mln USD 2008 mln USD 2009 mln USD Source: Federal service of state statistics.
Fig. 8. Geographic Structure of Foreign investments in Russian Economy in 007–In 2009 the largest growth of investment was posted from Japan – by 3.5fold against (to USD3.0 bn), investments from Luxemburg went up by 65.7%. At the same time, investments from Cyprus went down by 2.4fold, Great Britain – 2.3fold, France – 2.5fold, Ireland – 3.9fold. Investments from the Netherlands went down by 20.0%, Germany – by 31.3%.
Changes in the investment movement have resulted in the changes in the geographical structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy.
As of the end of 2009 cumulative foreign capital exclusive of monetary and credit regulatory agencies, commercial and savings banks, inclusive of ruble investments evaluated in USD constituted USD 268.2 bn which exceed by 1.4% corresponding parameter as of beginning of the year. The negative fact is that direct cumulative investments for the year fell by USD 13.4 bn. However, contraction of cumulative direct investments was posted in the 1Q 2009 (at USD27.2 bn, or by 22.2% for quarter). In the 2Q of preceding year cumulative foreign direct investments on the contrary went up and increased for half year by USD14.0 bn (at 14.7%).
At the end of 2009 Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Great Britain and Germany are among leader in the overall volume of cumulative foreign investments at the end of 2009.
Their share constituted 59.1% (2008 – 70.3%). At the same time, the share of the first five investor-countries in the segment of portfolio investments went up to 85.0% (2008 – 75.3%), in the structure of direct and other investments it went down to 61.8% and 55.3% (2008 – 73.4% and 57.6%).
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