This trend was formed against the background of upward trend in capital outflow and contraction of foreign investments. According to preliminary data provided by the Central Bank of Russia, in 2009 net outflow of private capital amounted to USD 52.4 bn against USD 132.bn a year ago. Foreign investments in the Russian economy in 2009 stood at USD 81.9 bn (79.0% to 2008), of which direct investments – USD 15.9 bn (58.9% to the level a year ago) (Table 6).
Section The Real Sector Table Net Inflow/Outflow of Private Sector Capital, according to balance of payments data, in bn USD Of which:
Net inflow/outflow of private sector capiNet inflow/outflow of Net inflow/outflow of capital by non fital, total capital by banks nance enterprises and households 2007 82.4 45.8 36.2008 –132.8 –56.9 –75.I quarter –23.7 –9.9 –13.II quarter 40.7 22.1 18.III quarter –19.3 –13.5 –5.IV quarter –130.5 –55.6 –74.2009 (estimate) –52.4 –32.5 –19.I quarter –35.1 –6.8 –28.II quarter 4.5 –5.8 10.III quarter –33.4 –27.6 –5.IV quarter (estimate) 11.6 7.7 3.Source: Central Bank of Russia Shortage pf proprietary resources and negligible role of the domestic banking sector in fixed investments preconditioned wider circle of borrowing companies. In 2009 the volume of borrowed funds directed into fixed investments (insurance and investment companies, trade enterprises, etc.) constituted 616.6 bn Rb and by 231.6 bn Rb exceeded the volume of the domestic banks’ loans in the structure of financing of fixed investments.
The global financial crisis defined the behavior of the investors in the market of residential housing construction. In 2009 net decline in the resources directed both by the organizations and the population to the share participation in construction. In 2009 the share of funds directed to the share participation in construction amounted to 2.3%, of which the funds of the population – 1.0% against correspondingly 3.5% and 1.9% in 2008.
Investment Restructuring across Types of Economic Activity By the end of 2009 fixed investments structure in the economy as a whole was affected by drastic exacerbation of contraction in the investments in agricultural sector (75.2% 2008), in commerce (75.7%), in the communication sector (66.6%), and transactions with real estate (70.8%0 (Table 7).
Investment activity in the infrastructure sector serves as an indicator of the potential for the future growth due to its orientation for the solution of subsequent issues. Dip in the investments in the development of railway transport by 21.0% against a year ago sent a warning signal. Net reduction in the investments has very negatively impacted associated productions of capital goods. Upward trend in the movement of the investments in the transportation was backed by an increase in the volumes of finding of priority projects in the development of the pipeline transport. Investments in the pipeline transport in comparison with 2008 went up by 1.54fold, and their share in the fixed investments structure in the economy as a whole went up by 5.2 percentage points to 11.8%.
Due to the contraction of the domestic market, investments in the retail sector against went down at 28.8%, in the wholesale sector – at 13.2%, and in car dealerships – at 34.7%.
Restructuring of the fixed investments across types of economic activity in industry in 2009 was dictated by contraction in the investment activity in the extraction sector at 11.7%, manufacturing industries – at 21.8%, and in the production and distribution of electricity, gas RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks and water – at 0.2% against the 2008 level. The share of investments in industry in the overall volume of fixed investments constituted 42.2% and went up by 1.3 percentage points in reference to 2008.
Table Fixed Investments Structure across Types of Economic Activity (excluding small business and informal economy) 2008 Total 100 Of which across types of economic activity:
Agriculture, hunting and forestry 3.8 3.Industry 40.9 42.Extraction of natural resources 16.1 16.Of which, extraction of fuel and energy natural resources 14.7 15.Manufacturing industries 16.1 15.Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 8.7 10.Construction 2.6 2.Wholesale and retail sector; automotive maintenance, motorcycles, household goods and personal 3.1 2.items Transport 19.6 23.Communication 5.2 5.Financial activity 1.3 1.Transactions with real estate, lease and provision of services 12.9 9.Education 2.2 2.State governance and state defense, compulsory social security 2.2 2.Public health and provision of social services 2.6 2.Delivery of other utility, social and personal services 3.1 2.Source: Federal service of state statistics.
In the extraction of fuel and energy resources contraction of investments against 2008 constituted 22.2%. Although it is worth noting that with the increase of the world prices commercial production of fuel and energy resources in 2009 went up to 29.2% against 24.7% a year ago.
The share of manufacturing industries in the fixed investment structure on the whole of the economy in 2009 amounted to 15.3%, and in the fixed investments in industry – 36.2% which is 3.2 percentage points below the 2008 mark. Investment activity in the manufacturing industries was ensured by the increase in the investments in the production of petroleum products (135.8% against 2008 mark). Among industries with the deepest investment slump are chemical production (74.2% against 2008), food processing (75.6%), manufacture of leather and footwear (65.7%), textile manufacture (82.4%), and cellulose and paper (63.2%).
Small investment demand for capital goods and construction materials coupled with underutilization of production capacities have led to a contraction in the investments in metallurgical production by 29.1% and production of metal goods - by 32.6% against 2008.
Analysis of behavior and structure of investments demonstrate reduction of as it is small share of investments in machine building. Change in the investments in machine building was mainly dictated by a contraction of investments in manufacture of means of transport by 26.9% against 2008 and in manufacture of machines and equipment – by 30.6%. Considering age, technological and reproduction structure of fixed capital slow investment rates in machine building industry remain a factor which slows rates of development of industries which manufacture final and intermediary products.
In 2009 major factors which hampered the investment activity in industry were insufficient demand for goods and products, high interest rates, as well as ambiguity of economic situation and prospects for economic development (Tale 8). The share of enterprises which pointed Section The Real Sector out to the shortage pf proprietary funds as a constraint of economic activity remained high.
However, at the same time, it remained at the average levels recorded for recent five-six years.
Table Ranging of Organizations across Factors Limiting Investment Activity, in % to overall number of organizations 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Small demand for goods and products 10 21 14 10 15 21 17 11 18 Shortage of proprietary funds 41 53 68 66 60 65 63 59 63 Expensive commercial borrowing 47 35 31 31 30 31 28 27 26 39 31 24 23 17 17 12 14 15 Complicated mechanism for obtaining loans for the implementation of investment projects Investment risks 35 33 27 26 24 25 28 29 27 Unsatisfactory state of the technical base 18 19 14 14 12 9 8 8 7 Low return on fixed investments 8 14 10 18 11 14 13 12 8 Ambiguity of economic situation in the country 49 35 29 19 20 18 14 11 33 Inadequate normative-legal base regulating the invest- 36 30 22 17 21 17 13 18 10 ment processes Source: Federal service of state statistics Under the 2009 level of utilization of production capacities and investments, fixed investments as in the previous years were directed to the replacement of worn-out equipment and machinery. According to findings of business surveys of the investment activity of organizations 64% of the overall number of organizations specified that reason. Under the contraction of demand a natural reaction of producers was to reduce the nomenclature of output which was followed by stagnation in job creation. Loss of interest on the part of enterprises to pursue the policy of production costs and energy saving looked very threatening in the wake of the crisis. Finally, this fact provoked growth of production costs and earnings delusion of services and products. The situation was aggravated by the lack of motivation to improve technical and technological production characteristics. In this connection, replacement of work-out equipment was due to solution of current or short-term issues of enterprise functioning and was not oriented to long-term perspective.
In spite of the fact that the lion’s share of fixed investments in 2009 was directed at procurement of machines and equipment, the high level of long-life performance and worn-out state of the equipment and machinery remain one of the principal factors determining low efficiency of production, capital and utilization of labor. For instance, the share of buildings and facilities which are over 20 year constitute 28%, the share of machinery and equipment of the same age amounts to 14% and means of transport – 6% in the companies engaged in the extraction of mineral resources, manufacturing industries companies, those engaged in production and distribution of electricity, gas and water in 2008. Average age of machines and equipment in metallurgy, manufacture of means of transportation and equipment, production of cellulose, wood pulp, paper, carton and their products does not exceed the average age across the companies under survey.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Ranging of Organizations across Fixed Investments Objectives (findings of the investment activity surveys, in % to the overall number of organizations) Fixed investments objectives 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Expansion of production capacities with permanent nomenclature of 42 35 35 36 33 28 31 27 29 products Expansion of production capacities with expansion of nomenclature of 34 26 28 27 33 38 36 39 39 products Automatization and mechanization of current production process 51 51 46 51 53 51 51 53 51 Introduction of new manufacturing technologies 41 43 42 39 40 46 47 44 42 Reduction of primecost of the output 42 41 39 39 47 49 46 48 46 Energy saving 39 39 37 38 44 49 44 48 43 Replacement of worn-out equipment and machinery 56 73 68 71 70 73 72 73 70 Job creation 30 17 17 16 21 25 21 21 22 Environment protection 48 51 40 46 46 50 50 49 46 Source: Federal service of state statistics.
At the same time, note positive trends in the structure of fixed investments.
Table Ranging of Organization across Types of Purchased Fixed Assets, in % to the overall number of organizations 2009 2010 projection Machines and equipment Complexes and manufacturing lines 58 Individual plants 54 Means of transport 49 Computer technologies and mechanical and automatization equipment 62 Telecommunications equipment 38 Other 32 Source: Federal service of state statistics.
Investment in the new technological lines and complexes has been growing on the back of the decline in the replacement of machines and equipment which fully corresponds long term purposes of modernization and reconstruction of industrial production and fosters manufacture of competitive high-tech products. This trend is paramount due to the fact that the majority of companies in 2009 – 87% of all companies subject to survey - purchased new machines and equipment of domestic origin and only 37% - imported. Such shift in priorities will undoubtedly influence positively the domestic market of investment-intensive goods.
3.3.2. Foreign investment Over the last ten years in the Russian economy dominated the trend according to which foreign investments grew faster than domestic investments. Significant outrunning rates of growth of the overall volume of foreign investments in comparison with domestic investments movement were due to structural features. Major share of foreign investments in the Russian economy constitute “other type of investment” which are ranged by type of financial tool as:
loans and credits; commercial credits; credits obtained from indirect investors, in particular, from international financial organizations (World Bank, International Monetary Fund, International bank for reconstruction and development, European bank for reconstruction and development); credits from foreign governments under guarantees of the RF Government, etc.
Section The Real Sector On average, for the period 2000-2008 the share of direct investments stood at about 26% of the overall volume of foreign investments, the portfolio investments – 2%, and other – 72%.
The rates of growth and the volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy peaked in 2007. That year the volume of foreign investments doubled against the level of a year ago.
In 2007 the volume of direct investments reached USD 27.9 bn which exceed the volume of investments received for two preceding years. Sustainable growth of direct investments came on the back of a surge in tied commercial credits and loans from direct investors. For the year 2007 increment in other investments exceeded USD 50 bn which, undoubtedly, affected the national financial indicators. At the same time, the stock market remains a zone of high risks which conditioned instability of behavior of the portfolio investments. Contraction in the volume of portfolio investments, the lion’s share of which constitute investments in shares, during 2000-2004 was interrupted by a somewhat revival recorded in 2005and surge in growth by 7fold in 2006 with slowdown of the movement to 131.8% in 2007. Dramatic upsurge in activity of foreign investors turned to a sluggish behavior in 2008. At the end of 2008 the volume of foreign investments in Russian economy in comparison with 2007 declined by 14.8%.
Downward trend in foreign fixed investments continued over entire 2008 and remained in 2009.
857,242,167,1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -GDP Domestic fixed investments Foreign investments – total Source: Federal service of state statistics.
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