Last year Russia exported the total of 150.07 bcm of natural gas for the amount of 39.bn. USD. With that Russian export of natural gas to the “far abroad” countries dropped by Jul. Jul. Jan. May Jan. May Mar. Mar. Sep. Nov. Sep. Nov. RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 23.9% making 120.5 bcm. Russian gas supplies to CIS countries increased by 90.1% reaching the level of 30.3 bcm. Export revenues in this area increased 2.4 times.
Table Monetary Export Values of Russian Crude, Petroleum Products and Gas (mln USD) and Their Share in the Overall Russian Export (%) Crude Petroleum products Gas Mln USD % Mln USD % Mln USD % 1992 6,662 12.4 2,202 4.1 6,389 11.1993 8,061 13.5 3,061 5.1 6,964 11.1994 8,948 13.3 3,398 5.0 7,939 11.1995 12,297 15.2 4,108 5.1 13,381 16.1996 15,578 17.6 7,442 8.4 14,683 16.1997 14,346 16.2 7,145 8.1 16,420 18.1998 10,254 13.7 4,262 5.7 … … 1999 14,101 18.8 4,713 6.3 … … 2000 25,284 24.1 10,938 10.6 16,644 16.2001 24,576 24.1 9,402 9.4 18,303 18.2002 28,950 27.0 11,227 10.5 15,897 14.2003 38,816 28.6 14,064 10.5 19,981 15.2004 55,024 30.0 18,998 10.5 20,918 11.2005 79,216 32.5 33,650 13.6 30,424.2 12.2006 96,675 31.7 44,217 14.5 42,815 14.2007 114,145,2 32.4 51,470.4 14.6 42,755.1 12.2008 151,668,6 32.4 78,325 16.7 66,399.7 14.2009 93,486,5 31.0 46,795.0 15.5 39,380.6 13.Resource: Federal Service for State Statistics, Federal Customs.
The relative share of the second biggest group of Russian export items – “metals and metal ware” remained at the same level in 2009 making 11.3% (versus 11.6% in 2008) (Fig. 5).
Physical volumes of ferrous metals and metal ware export decreased by 6.6%, including:
rolled iron and unalloyed steel prefabricated products – by 9.4%, cast iron – by 12.2%. Physical volumes of rolled iron and unalloyed steel export increased by 47.7%, copper – 2.5 times aluminum – by 6.2%, nickel – decreased by 3.1%.
The share of chemical industry products in the export commodity pattern in 2009 stayed at the level of the preceding year – 6.2% (6.4% in 2008). Compared to the previous year, the monetary value of export of such products dropped by 39.0%, physical volumes – by 15.0%.
Decrease of monetary values and physical volumes of Russian export occurred practically for all categories of chemical industry products with the exception of nitrogenous fertilizers (15.6% increase of physical volumes), физический объем которых возрос на 15,6%, compound fertilizers (19.3% increase), plastic materials and plastic products (66.8% decrease).
The share of timber and pulp-and-paper products export made 2.9% in 2009 (2.5% in 2008). The physical volumes 2008 downward dynamics was as follows: rough timber went down by 41.0%, pulp – by 17.8%. At the same time the physical volumes of certain goods supplies to the “far abroad” countries demonstrated positive dynamics: sawn timber volumes increased by 4.7%, newspaper fibers – by 12.6%.
Section The Real Sector other goods 100% 90% machinery, equipment and 80% transport vehicles 70% metals and metal ware 60% timber and pulp-and-paper 50% products 40% chemical industry products and 30% rubber 20% mineral products 10% 0% food products and agricultural raw materials 2008 Source: Federal Customs.
Fig 5. Russian Export Commodity Pattern (%) The share of machinery and equipment export increased in 2009 up to 5.8% versus 4.6% in 2008. The monetary value of export supplies of ground transportation vehicles (except for railway transport) increased by 28.5%. At the same time, electric equipment supplies went down by 7.9%, and mechanical equipment – by 5.2%. Physical volumes of cars and trucks export decreased by 18.3% and 25.4% respectively.
Expansive growth of Russian food products export stands out in the overall context of decreased export supplies across practically all commodity categories. The monetary value of their export grew by 32.4% versus 2008, and their physical export increased by 70.8% – mainly due to wheat export (47.6% growth), barley (2.4 times growth), sunflower seeds (2.times growth), fresh and frozen fish (5.7 times growth). The share of food products export increased in 2009 up to 3.3% versus 1.9% in 2008.
3.6.5. Import Profile and Dynamics In 2009 import of goods demonstrated 34.3% decline versus 2008 and went down to 191.bn. USD. This significant decrease was caused by abrupt fall of the Russian economy (7.9% according to the estimates of Federal Service for State Statistics), effective demand shrinkage, credit activity decline leading to additional decrease of investment import, and effective weakening of the Russian rouble. According to the RF Ministry of Economic Development, the effective weakening of the Russian Rouble in real terms taking into account both domestic and foreign inflation demonstrated the following numbers in December 2009 versus December 2008: 0.4% to USD, 6.5% to Euro, 8.8% to British Pound, 8% to Swiss Franc. Russian Rouble strengthened relatively to Japanese Yen by 2.4%. The overall weakening of the effective FOREX rate for the Russian Rouble is estimated at the level of 3.8%.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks While the FOREX rate was stabilizing throughout the year, the import dynamics were improving (Fig. 6).
30 40,35,30,25,15 20,15,10,5,0 0,Import (bn. USD) FOREX rate (Russian Rb. per 1 USD) Source: Federal Customs, Bank of Russia.
Fig. 6. Import dynamics (left axis) and FOREX dynamics (right axis) The decrease of import monetary values in 2009 was related with the decease of its physical volumes, while as the average prices of the imported goods practically remained at the last year’s level (Table 6). With that, the average import prices index made about 97.1% in January-September, but is October-December its level of 103-104% was registered.
Import physical volumes index was gradually growing – from 57.6% for the 9 months of 2009 on the yoy basis up to 81.9% in the 4th quarter of 2009. In December 2009 it made 97.6% versus 2008.
Table Commodities Import Index January-September 2009, % of Janu- December 2009, % to December 2009 as % to ary-September 2008 Physical Physical volPhysical volumes Average prices Physical volumes Average prices volumes umes 57.6 97.1 97.6 102.6 63.3 99.Total import, including: 56.3 101.1 90.8 107.4 61.1 103.from “far abroad” countries 65.5 76.6 154.7 78.3 76.9 77.from CIS countries Source: the RF Ministry of Economic Development.
The import profile in 2009 versus 2008 demonstrated smaller share of machinery and equipment, metals and metal ware, and of mineral products (Fig. 7).
In 2009 the import of machinery, equipment and transportation vehicles decreased by 48.3%. This category of goods contributed the most to the overall drop of import, and its Jul.
Section The Real Sector share in the import profile decreased from 53.2% to 43.9%. Compared to the preceding year, the monetary value of engineering products import decreased by 40.6%, of ground transportation vehicles (excl. railway transportation) – by 70.5%, of electric equipment – by 34.0%, of optical instruments and devices – by 39.3%. Import of cars suffered the most: physical volumes of imported passenger cars decreased by 74.3%, of trucks – by 83.1%.
Thus abrupt decline of cars import may be explained both by erosion of the purchasing power of Russian citizens and by protectionism measures in favor of domestic cars manufacturers. As a result, in January 2009 the customs duties levied on imported used cars practically became of prohibitive character. In September 2009 the period of such elevated duties rates was extended for 9 more months. As of the end of 2009 the import of cars being in use during up to 5 years decreased by 96.6% (almost 30 times) going down to 12.37 thousand cars, and the import of cars being in use for over 5 years decreased by 81.5% (5.4 times) going down to 1340 cars. The import of new cars decreased almost 3 times (by 69%) going down to 498.8 thousand cars. Japan accounted for 28% of all the imported new cars (thousand cars), Republic of Korea – for 20.1% (104.93 thousand cars), Germany – for 8.2% (42.71 thousand cars).
The elevated customs duties rate for imported foreign cars will stay in effect until mid- 2010. It is planned to resume discussions on the issue in spring (in particular, due to the Common Customs Tariff [CCT] coming into effect for Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, these partner countries were forced to significantly increase their customs duties for the imported cars).
100% 90% other goods 80% machinery, equipment and transport vehicles 70% metals and metal ware 60% timber and pulp-and-paper products 50% 40% chemical industry products and rubber 30% mineral products 20% food products and agricultural raw materials 10% 0% 2008 г. 2009 г.
Source: Federal Customs.
Fig. 7. Russian Import Commodity Pattern (%) The share of food products and raw materials for their production in the Russian import pattern made 17.6%, which exceeds the 2008 level by 4.6 percentage points. The monetary value of food products import decreased by 15%. Physical volumes of imported fresh and frozen meat decreased by 19.4%, of poultry – by 20.8, of fresh and frozen fish – by 10.1, of cheese and curds – by 7.8, of butter – by 27.1, of crude sugar – by 48.2%.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The share of chemical industry products in the import commodities pattern made 16.9% versus 13.3% in 2008. The monetary value of imported chemical industry products decreased by 20.6%. The physical volumes of inorganic chemical products supplies decreased 14.2%; of pharmaceutical products – by 5.8%; of lacquer and dyes – by 29.4%; of cosmetic products – by 14.6%; of soap and cleansing agents – by 14.1%; of plastic materials and plastic products – by 30.%; of resin, rubber and respective products – by 35.2%.
The share of imported textile, textile products and footwear made 5.5% (versus 4.2% in 2008). The monetary value of imported textiles and footwear decreased by 17.8% compared to the preceding year. Physical volumes of imported cotton fabrics and genuine leather footwear decreased by 39.3% and 36.0% respectively.
The decrease of imported metals and metal ware share in 2009 was immaterial: from 6.8% to 6.4%. The monetary value of imported goods of this category decreased by 40.9% versus 2008. Physical volumes of imported ferrous metals and ferrous metals products decreased by 42.2%, including: pipes – by 53.7%, rolled iron and unalloyed steel prefabricated products – by 31.7%, ferrous metal work – by 50.3%.
The share of imported timber and pulp-and-paper products in 2009 made 3.1% (versus 2.4% in 2008). Physical volumes of imported products of those categories decreased by 33.8%, their monetary values – by 21.8%.
3.6.6. Russian Foreign Trade Regulation in the Global Crisis Environment In accordance with Article 3 of the Law of the Russian Federation “On Customs Tariffs”, the RF Government over the course of 2009 prepared and enacted 12 Resolutions fixing the rates for export customs duties for crude and petroleum products.
The export customs duty for crude and petroleum products recovered from bituminous rock and exported from Russia beyond the borders of countries participating in the Customs Union agreements was changed on a monthly basis across 2009 based on monitoring Urals crude prices between the 15th date of each calendar month and the 14th date of the following calendar month (Table 7).
On to of that, additional tax incentives were effected in July 2009 to stimulate crude production growth. The RF Government Resolution No.574 of July 16, 2009 “On Amendments to the Customs Tariff of the Russian Federation Pertaining to Crude Oil” set a special downward rate for export duties levied on crude produced in East Siberia. This rate covered 13 oil Section The Real Sector fields of this region and constituted 5% of the dutiable value of exported crude. The rate was set for the period of 9 months starting from the moment of the Resolution coming into effect (2 months after the date of issue).
Late in 2008 and early in 2009 the focus of customs tariff policy was shifted from traditional regulatory and fiscal functions to anti-crisis support of Russian economy and of domestic producers’ competitiveness. The mechanism of tariff regulations allows for prompt government decision-making in extreme situations. On-going control of the imported goods share at Russian domestic markets was required along with improved efficiency of monitoring import volumes to create preventive protection mechanism. Weekly foreign trade and domestic market environment monitoring was organized for those purposes with regards to sensitive industrial and agricultural goods qualified as the most vulnerable ones for foreign competition in the crisis environment. Communications and interface with the Russian business community was set-up. In most cases such system allowed for prompt response to the external market signals and threats, to find solutions satisfying both manufacturers and consumers.
The RF Government enacted over 60 Resolutions correcting the import duty tariffs. The customs duties rates were not only raise, but also decreased for quite significant group of products – mainly, the rates of import duties on hi-tech equipment. Overall in 2009 the import duties were changed for 600 commodity items, and for 350 (out of these 600) items the duties were increased.
The increase of import duties pertained to certain sensitive industries and goods categories subject to high import pressure, as well as import with damping and subsidies. The crisis environment caused accumulation of huge finished stock, and many manufacturers were ready to export them at discount prices. That is why the Russian Government actions may be qualified as enforced protection. However, overall in 2009 the average weighted import duty rate decreased versus the preceding basis: 11.45% in 2008 and 10.7% in 2009.
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