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OLS regression Dependent variable: overall change in the share of unofficial industrial production in 1996-(unitary elasticity scenario) Ln(crime95) 6.474 7.316 5.259 6.426 6.216 6.66 6.(2.03)** (2.26)** (1.62) (1.96)* (1.95)* (2.06)** (1.88)* Unemployment95 0.626 0.191 -0.546 1.224 0.618 0.672 0.(0.50) (0.16) (0.46) (0.98) (0.49) (0.53) (0.61) Poverty95 0.941 1.083 0.884 1.056 0.961 0.842 0. (2.99)*** (3.14)*** (2.75)*** (3.33)*** (3.07)*** (2.51)** (2.67)** Transferts/GRP95 -3.936 -3.987 -3.063 -4.809 -4.018 -3.778 -2. (2.97)*** (2.98)*** (2.38)** (3.76)*** (3.04)*** (2.28)** (1.94)* Ln(wage95) -15.117 -17.444 -15.192 -18.756 -16.(1.24) (1.43) (1.21) (1.51) (1.32) Ln(income95) -11.(0.68) Ln(expenditures95) 0.(0.04) Employ_government96 -42.976 -45.054 -41.271 -64.822 -40.891 -46.49 -57.(0.78) (0.81) (0.73) (1.17) (0.74) (0.82) (1.04) Taxes/GRP95 -0.586 -0.687 -1.254 -0.403 -0.5 -0.48 -0.(0.54) (0.64) (1.15) (0.37) (0.47) (0.44) (0.44) Capture95 -16.682 -14.324 -20.584 -14.853 -18.717 -18.(1.94)* (1.64) (2.39)** (1.77)* (2.17)** (2.10)** Capture96 7.901 4.837 9.17 4.208 8.461 8.(0.94) (0.58) (1.06) (0.50) (1.00) (1.03) Nonstability2 16.225 14.651 10.978 17.47 16.03 15.916 15. (3.19)*** (2.91)*** (1.99)* (3.36)*** (3.15)*** (3.09)*** (3.08)*** Nonstability1 13.(2.21)** Proreform96 -18.411 -19.305 -21.579 -19.774 -18.479 -17. (2.79)*** (2.92)*** (3.29)*** (3.08)*** (2.73)*** (2.62)** Industry_share96 0.876 0.908 0.654 1.026 1.028 0.618 0.(1.89)* (1.96)* (1.43) (2.19)** (2.38)** (1.47) (1.40) Small_enter_share95 -0.754 -0.727 -0.619 -0.721 -0.677 -0.783 -0.(2.45)** (2.37)** (1.93)* (2.28)** (2.28)** (2.53)** (2.61)** D_CIS -0.265 -1.384 -4.484 1.546 1.507 -0.406 0.(0.05) (0.23) (0.75) (0.26) (0.27) (0.07) (0.04) D_nonCIS -17.214 -16.662 -17.5 -15.791 -18.309 -18.(1.91)* (1.80)* (1.89)* (1.78)* (2.02)** (2.03)** D_china -23.(1.83)* Constant 100.992 112.174 105.635 127.404 104.462 78.798 -6.(1.06) (1.17) (1.08) (1.31) (1.10) (0.62) (0.06) Observations 64 64 64 64 64 64 R-squared 0.51 0.5 0.48 0.47 0.5 0.5 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% D Table D1.

Panel regressions with fixed effects Dependent variable: share of unofficial economy (SHARE(t)) Unemployment(t-1) 0.106 0.046 0.098 0.046 0.052 0.071 0. (0.78) (0.35) (0.73) (0.36) (0.40) (0.56) (0.56) Poverty(t-1) 0.021 0.014 0. (0.41) (0.29) (0.51) Capture(t) -1.272 -1.057 -1.26 -1.022 -0.994 -1.029 -0.813 -0. (1.61) (1.36) (1.60) (1.33) (1.30) (1.34) (1.05) (1.30) l_refugees(t-1) 2.052 1.977 2.03 2.119 2.079 2.124 1.967 2.201 2. (2.67)*** (2.59)** (2.65)*** (2.71)*** (2.75)*** (2.83)*** (2.65)*** (2.89)*** (2.83)*** l_real_expend(t-1) -8.676 -9.439 -8.981 -8.949 -9.127 -8.982 -9.587 -9. (2.68)*** (3.18)*** (2.80)*** (2.77)*** (3.09)*** (3.06)*** (3.30)*** (3.10)*** l_real_wage(t-1) -7.28 -7.683 -7.785 -5.362 -6.784 -6.604 -8.795 -6. (1.48) (1.58) (1.60) (1.08) (1.41) (1.38) (1.83)* (1.44) l_crime_young(t-1) 3.138 2.575 2.829 3.54 2.932 2.868 3.101 3.077 2. (1.18) (1.00) (1.08) (1.32) (1.15) (1.13) (1.22) (1.19) (1.07) Budget_expend(t-1) -0.005 -0.022 -0.014 -0.001 -0. (0.05) (0.24) (0.15) (0.01) (0.50) FDI(t) -0.2 -0.198 -0.196 -0.191 -0.201 -0.201 -0.208 -0.21 -0. (1.66)* (1.63) (1.62) (1.59) (1.68)* (1.68)* (1.73)* (1.73)* (1.66)* Industry_share(t) 0.222 0.208 0.224 0.236 0.204 0.207 0.201 0.184 0. (3.48)*** (3.28)*** (3.51)*** (3.65)*** (3.25)*** (3.31)*** (3.22)*** (2.92)*** (3.35)*** Agriculture_share(t) -0.138 -0.16 -0.144 -0.154 -0.155 -0.156 -0.155 -0.181 -0. (1.08) (1.28) (1.12) (1.19) (1.25) (1.26) (1.25) (1.44) (1.28) d_elections_previous 0.007 0.03 0.044 -0. (0.01) (0.05) (0.08) (0.45) d_elections_next 0.123 0.082 0.117 0. (0.23) (0.15) (0.22) (0.36) year==96 6.814 6.5 6.605 6.452 6.014 5.826 4.244 5.463 5. (3.53)*** (3.49)*** (3.46)*** (3.30)*** (3.30)*** (3.27)*** (3.11)*** (3.02)*** (3.25)*** year==97 7.982 7.78 7.813 7.768 7.396 7.131 5.333 5.504 7. (4.08)*** (4.03)*** (4.02)*** (3.92)*** (3.90)*** (3.92)*** (4.19)*** (3.11)*** (3.90)*** year==98 10.641 10.638 10.756 10.136 10.39 9.949 7.927 7.615 9. (4.85)*** (4.88)*** (4.92)*** (4.55)*** (4.80)*** (5.04)*** (5.99)*** (4.12)*** (5.07)*** year==99 3.912 3.682 4.021 3.274 3.511 3.362 1.771 5.127 3. (2.39)** (2.46)** (2.46)** (1.98)** (2.37)** (2.32)** (2.02)** (3.79)*** (2.41)** Constant 108.562 121.574 117.148 94.502 112.448 110.041 70.744 71.142 113. (2.73)*** (3.20)*** (3.07)*** (2.36)** (3.01)*** (2.98)*** (3.00)*** (2.02)** (3.17)*** Observations 328 331 328 343 334 334 334 334 Number of num 70 70 70 74 71 71 71 71 R-squared within 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% Table D2.

Panel regressions with fixed effects Dependent variable: share of unofficial economy (SHARE(t)) Unemployment(t-1) 0.074 0.098 0.(0.52) (0.69) (0.69) Poverty(t-1) 0.012 0.014 0.(0.22) (0.26) (0.84) Capture(t) -0.332 -0.32 -0.(0.39) (0.38) (0.40) l_refugees(t-1) 2.386 2.158 2.(2.57)** (2.33)** (2.72)*** l_real_expend(t-1) -5.917 -6.(1.57) (1.74)* l_real_wage(t-1) -10.772 -11.(1.99)** (2.13)** l_crime_young(t-1) 0.059 0.6 -0.(0.02) (0.17) (0.00) Budget_expend(t-1) 0.002 0.028 0.(0.02) (0.27) (0.18) FDI(t) -0.226 -0.238 -0.(1.90)* (1.98)** (1.96)* Industry_share(t) 0.17 0.161 0.(2.55)** (2.40)** (2.39)** Agriculture_share(t) -0.158 -0.157 -0.(1.29) (1.27) (1.39) d_elections_previous -0.3 -0.302 -0.(0.56) (0.56) (0.67) d_elections_next 0.56 0.524 0.(1.10) (1.02) (1.09) year==97 7.892 4.839 6.(3.42)*** (2.78)*** (3.10)*** year==98 10.488 6.981 9.(4.18)*** (3.88)*** (3.86)*** year==99 4.888 2.33 6.(2.83)*** (2.00)** (4.03)*** Constant 135.65 68.823 105.(3.05)*** (2.33)** (2.61)*** Observations 262 262 Number of num 70 70 R-squared within 0.45 0.44 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% E Table E.

Panel regressions with fixed effects Dependent variable: share of unofficial sector in industrial production (SHARE(t)) year==96 7.04 10.(7.11)*** (4.27)*** year==97 5.885 11.739 10.89 12.518 8.728 11.(5.94)*** (4.85)*** (4.70)*** (5.64)*** (3.35)*** (4.86)*** year==98 7.169 6.154 6.678 7.413 11.942 24.(7.23)*** (2.40)** (2.49)** (2.77)*** (3.81)*** (2.78)*** year==99 2.8 1.888 1.993 2.475 6.582 19.(2.81)*** (1.14) (1.21) (1.49) (2.92)*** (2.27)** Capture(t-1) -1.165 -0.855 -0.799 -0.771 -1.(0.98) (0.63) (0.59) (0.58) (0.77) FDI(t) -0.143 -0.077 -0.063 -0.062 -0.(1.97)* (1.04) (0.85) (0.85) (0.84) Unemployment(t-1) 0.329 -0.(1.55) (0.34) Poverty(t-1) 0.081 0.119 0.096 0.109 0.(1.13) (1.47) (1.18) (1.36) (1.44) Budget_expend(t-1) 0.123 0.08 0.134 0.153 0.(0.84) (0.49) (0.81) (0.94) (0.95) Ln(real_expend(t-1)) -13.95 -11.864 -12.789 -14.397 -12.(2.73)*** (1.98)** (2.14)** (2.44)** (2.18)** Alcohol_mortality(t) 0.12 0.17 0.168 0.(1.63) (2.15)** (2.17)** (2.06)** Ln(refugees(t-1)) 0.(0.35) Ln(crime_young(t)) 3.663 6.49 7.315 7.37 6.(0.89) (1.37) (1.54) (1.58) (1.33) Industry_share(t) -0.212 -0.204 -0.211 -0.205 -0.(2.09)** (1.83)* (1.92)* (1.90)* (1.84)* Profitability(t) 0.18 0.123 0.116 0.191 0.(1.88)* (1.23) (1.17) (1.88)* (1.31) Share_output_private(t) 0. (2.66)*** Share_enter_private(t) 0. (2.02)** d_elections_next 0.951 1.661 1.708 1.911 1.(1.15) (1.99)** (2.06)** (2.33)** (2.32)** d_elections_previous 0.077 0.306 0.088 0.018 -0.(0.09) (0.36) (0.10) (0.02) (0.10) Share_non-ferrous(t) 0.253 0.274 0.266 0.(2.31)** (2.56)** (2.54)** (2.60)** Share _machinery(t) 0.094 0.102 0.163 0.(0.74) (0.82) (1.31) (0.99) Share _fermet(t) 0.295 0.334 0.347 0.(1.13) (1.27) (1.35) (1.08) Constant 35.458 89.042 60.888 55.026 57.172 43.(49.35)*** (2.21)** (1.30) (1.18) (1.25) (0.94) Observations 373 320 258 256 256 Number of num 77 69 69 69 69 R-squared within 0.21 0.33 0.38 0.39 0.42 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%

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