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0.139 0.704 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.562 0.025 0.000 0.Industry_share96 0.166 0.144 0.201 0.100 -0.257 -0.494 -0.510 -0.459 -0.145 -0.367 1. 0.154 0.238 0.080 0.385 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.214 0.privatization96 -0.004 -0.030 0.164 -0.221 -0.016 0.205 0.141 -0.137 0.036 -0.325 0.264 1. 0.976 0.805 0.152 0.052 0.889 0.072 0.218 0.237 0.759 0.004 0.nonstability1 0.156 0.243 -0.243 -0.055 0.275 -0.126 -0.026 -0.025 -0.088 0.315 -0.026 -0.159 1. 0.186 0.044 0.034 0.635 0.016 0.276 0.826 0.834 0.453 0.006 0.826 0.nonstability2 0.082 0.229 -0.180 -0.038 0.168 -0.167 -0.062 -0.105 -0.043 0.196 0.008 -0.152 0.415 1. 0.487 0.059 0.117 0.743 0.144 0.147 0.590 0.372 0.712 0.090 0.947 0.186 0.Proreform96 -0.109 -0.218 0.217 0.195 -0.302 0.156 0.128 0.006 0.013 -0.379 0.035 0.179 -0.558 -0. 0.355 0.072 0.060 0.091 0.008 0.180 0.271 0.956 0.912 0.001 0.764 0.123 0.000 0.Reform_level96 0.016 -0.044 0.175 0.089 -0.207 -0.079 -0.094 -0.115 0.137 -0.261 0.009 0.184 -0.148 -0. 0.892 0.717 0.128 0.441 0.071 0.494 0.415 0.324 0.242 0.022 0.936 0.109 0.202 0.Polit_orient96 0.187 -0.058 0.315 0.260 -0.432 -0.363 -0.389 -0.410 0.110 -0.444 0.299 0.175 -0.204 -0. 0.108 0.636 0.005 0.021 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.347 0.000 0.008 0.125 0.077 0.SMI_free_produce -0.028 -0.055 0.151 0.107 -0.296 -0.259 -0.414 -0.381 0.108 -0.325 0.198 0.260 -0.040 -0. 0.813 0.652 0.191 0.355 0.009 0.023 0.000 0.001 0.356 0.004 0.084 0.022 0.734 0.SMI_free_access 0.173 -0.085 0.221 0.110 -0.121 -0.398 -0.203 -0.236 -0.001 -0.183 0.228 0.072 -0.050 -0. 0.137 0.488 0.053 0.341 0.294 0.000 0.077 0.040 0.995 0.111 0.046 0.535 0.666 0.SMI_free_distrib 0.040 -0.008 -0.036 0.272 -0.197 -0.150 -0.143 -0.107 0.357 -0.234 -0.051 0.117 -0.027 0. 0.734 0.947 0.757 0.018 0.087 0.196 0.217 0.361 0.002 0.042 0.665 0.313 0.818 0.SMI_free_summ 0.109 -0.007 0.171 0.271 -0.319 -0.401 -0.362 -0.350 0.246 -0.389 0.198 0.234 -0.033 0. 0.352 0.954 0.137 0.017 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.034 0.001 0.085 0.041 0.775 0.Empl_giovern96 -0.072 -0.052 0.197 0.043 -0.197 0.392 0.232 0.427 0.372 -0.159 -0.352 -0.002 -0.245 -0. 0.540 0.671 0.084 0.708 0.083 0.000 0.041 0.000 0.001 0.168 0.002 0.988 0.033 0.Capture96 0.106 0.120 -0.100 0.159 -0.139 -0.268 -0.181 -0.110 0.019 -0.178 0.301 -0.151 0.150 -0. 0.384 0.341 0.406 0.184 0.245 0.023 0.129 0.360 0.874 0.134 0.010 0.205 0.213 0.FDI96 0.061 -0.097 0.184 0.347 -0.276 0.415 -0.097 -0.164 0.069 -0.367 -0.244 0.102 0.010 -0. 0.614 0.442 0.121 0.003 0.019 0.000 0.420 0.173 0.571 0.002 0.039 0.396 0.932 0.Small_share95 0.111 -0.143 0.197 0.117 -0.357 -0.096 -0.076 -0.049 0.270 -0.288 0.027 0.010 -0.154 0. 0.345 0.242 0.084 0.310 0.001 0.405 0.510 0.672 0.019 0.011 0.819 0.929 0.183 0.Taxes/GRP95 0.064 -0.136 0.178 0.385 -0.380 -0.279 -0.472 -0.345 0.006 -0.437 0.161 -0.027 0.039 -0. GiniPoverty%Share_SIP Ln(auto95) Ln(crime95) nonstabilitynonstabilityTransf/GRPBudget_expShare_SEprivatizationIndustry_shareAgricult_shareUnemployment 0.585 0.265 0.120 0.001 0.001 0.013 0.000 0.002 0.960 0.000 0.162 0.815 0.740 0.Population96 -0.022 -0.005 0.090 0.266 -0.278 -0.270 -0.344 -0.210 0.337 -0.379 0.034 0.089 -0.079 -0. 0.849 0.965 0.432 0.019 0.014 0.017 0.002 0.069 0.003 0.001 0.768 0.440 0.499 0.D_CIS -0.294 0.154 -0.324 -0.025 0.302 0.082 0.188 0.169 -0.135 0.235 -0.198 -0.150 0.208 0. 0.011 0.207 0.004 0.828 0.007 0.476 0.100 0.146 0.248 0.040 0.085 0.189 0.071 0.D_nonCIS -0.046 -0.075 0.311 0.197 -0.241 0.091 0.135 0.272 0.143 -0.180 -0.109 -0.085 -0.038 -0. 0.695 0.540 0.006 0.083 0.034 0.427 0.238 0.018 0.222 0.116 0.345 0.457 0.744 0.D_china 0.001 -0.073 0.236 0.160 -0.236 0.017 0.052 0.201 0.158 -0.134 -0.156 -0.087 -0.066 -0. 0.996 0.550 0.037 0.161 0.038 0.880 0.651 0.082 0.176 0.245 0.175 0.451 0.571 0.Table A2 continued Proreform96 1.Reform_level96 0.046 1.0.Polit_orient96 0.128 0.373 1.0.270 0.SMI_free_produce 0.046 0.237 0.478 1.0.693 0.038 0.SMI_free_access -0.059 -0.002 0.195 0.220 1.0.610 0.989 0.090 0.SMI_free_distrib 0.059 0.248 0.430 0.252 -0.042 1.0.614 0.031 0.000 0.028 0.SMI_free_summ -0.004 0.249 0.537 0.702 0.627 0.556 1.0.976 0.029 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.Empl_giovern96 0.209 0.054 -0.185 -0.157 -0.281 -0.055 -0.244 1. 0.070 0.639 0.105 0.172 0.013 0.635 0.Capture96 -0.138 -0.087 -0.053 -0.135 0.127 0.120 0.081 -0.107 1. 0.253 0.467 0.657 0.260 0.289 0.318 0.498 0.FDI96 0.143 0.267 0.210 0.136 -0.184 0.275 0.111 0.113 -0.152 1. 0.236 0.024 0.077 0.255 0.122 0.021 0.355 0.344 0.Small_share95 0.024 0.145 0.120 0.147 0.305 0.166 0.340 0.046 0.164 -0.016 1. 0.836 0.209 0.295 0.201 0.007 0.152 0.003 0.689 0.168 0.Taxes/GRP95 0.075 -0.024 0.352 0.288 -0.004 0.302 0.292 -0.014 0.052 0.484 0.028 1. 0.519 0.835 0.002 0.011 0.975 0.008 0.010 0.905 0.666 0.000 0.Population96 0.131 0.269 0.311 0.355 0.076 0.552 0.462 -0.058 0.091 0.246 0.302 0.416 1. 0.258 0.018 0.006 0.002 0.512 0.000 0.000 0.614 0.448 0.037 0.007 0.D_CIS -0.044 -0.070 -0.403 -0.225 -0.061 0.002 -0.111 -0.203 0.137 -0.105 -0.057 -0.225 0.011 1. 0.706 0.546 0.000 0.050 0.597 0.989 0.338 0.075 0.251 0.382 0.622 0.048 0.D_nonCIS -0.009 -0.122 -0.055 -0.060 0.054 -0.022 0.005 0.202 0.120 0.097 0.139 0.071 -0.210 -0.130 1. 0.939 0.292 0.633 0.602 0.641 0.852 0.964 0.077 0.315 0.418 0.226 0.535 0.065 0.D_china 0.038 -0.083 0.070 0.001 -0.086 -0.072 -0.067 0.056 0.011 0.075 0.084 0.039 -0.107 -0.185 0. 0.744 0.474 0.542 0.994 0.459 0.537 0.560 0.625 0.928 0.531 0.467 0.737 0.351 0.105 0. GiniusecoshchPovertyLn(auto95) Ln(crime95) nonstabilitynonstabilityTransf/GRPBudget_expprivatizationIndustry_shareAgricult_shareUnemploymentProreformReform_levelPolit_orientSMI_free_produce SMI_free_access SMI_free_distrib SMI_free_summ Empl_giovernCaptureFDISmall_shareTaxes/GRPPopulationD_CIS D_nonCIS B Table B1.

Dependent variable: overall change in the share of unofficial economy in 1996-2000 (conservative elasticity scenario) ln(crime95) 7.559 9.178 8.148 7.543 7.164 8.828 9.035 8. (2.47)** (3.34)*** (2.62)** (2.70)*** (2.71)*** (3.17)*** (3.27)*** (3.14)*** l(auto95) -1.887 -1.392 -1.85 -1.155 -0.989 -2.125 -2.046 -1. (0.52) (0.38) (0.50) (0.35) (0.31) (0.62) (0.60) (0.43) unemployment95 -0.987 -0.85 -1.152 -1. (1.86)* (1.63) (2.42)** (2.47)** poverty96 0.162 0.107 0.161 0.163 0.086 0.076 0. (1.19) (0.79) (1.29) (1.32) (0.72) (0.64) (0.65) gini95 29.417 29.939 44.412 45.305 47.226 42. (1.31) (1.33) (2.08)** (2.17)** (2.29)** (2.12)** agricult_share96 -0.15 0.087 -0.06 -0.153 -0.205 -0.038 -0.079 -0. (0.41) (0.28) (0.16) (0.50) (0.72) (0.12) (0.26) (0.59) industry_share96 -0.121 -0.114 0.021 -0.181 -0.192 -0.035 -0.056 -0. (0.61) (0.57) (0.11) (1.13) (1.21) (0.23) (0.38) (0.47) privatization96 -7.106 -6.995 -7.836 -6.563 -6.56 -8.128 -8.309 -8. (1.13) (1.11) (1.22) (1.06) (1.07) (1.30) (1.33) (1.31) nonstability1 4.718 4.312 4.427 4.801 4.928 4.104 3.889 4. (2.33)** (2.15)** (2.14)** (2.49)** (2.60)** (2.09)** (2.01)** (2.25)** employ_govern96 -31.329 -23.098 -33.226 -25.734 -26.056 -33.846 -34.424 -33. (1.51) (1.17) (1.56) (1.40) (1.43) (1.74)* (1.78)* (1.73)* capture96 4.787 5.429 5.199 4.259 4.135 5.184 5.8 5. (1.47) (1.68)* (1.56) (1.33) (1.30) (1.60) (1.86)* (1.74)* FDI96 0.051 0.081 0. (0.06) (0.10) (0.20) Small_share95 0.136 0.116 0.07 0.182 0.172 0. (1.17) (1.01) (0.62) (1.68)* (1.64) (0.76) Taxes/GRP95 0.37 0.376 0.486 0.202 0.495 0. (0.78) (0.79) (1.01) (0.45) (1.07) (0.94) Population96 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0. (2.03)** (1.80)* (1.55) (1.89)* (1.85)* (1.75)* (1.68)* (1.48) D_CIS -5.795 -4.973 -5.27 -6.15 -6.369 -5.088 -5.317 -5. (2.54)** (2.28)** (2.27)** (2.94)*** (3.16)*** (2.42)** (2.57)** (2.84)*** D_nonCIS -6.023 -4.75 -6.803 -5.933 -5.911 -6.967 -6.957 -6. (1.67) (1.38) (1.86)* (1.71)* (1.72)* (1.99)* (2.00)* (1.98)* Constant 14.236 0.532 -5.711 21.579 26.568 -5.75 -2.744 6. (0.49) (0.02) (0.21) (0.78) (1.05) (0.23) (0.11) (0.27) Observations 66 66 66 68 68 68 68 R-squared 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% Table B2.

Dependent variable: overall change in 1996-2000 in the share of unofficial economy in official GRP (conservative elasticity scenario) ln(crime95) 0.202 0.244 0.213 0.179 0.168 0.209 0.216 0. (2.53)** (3.38)*** (2.65)** (2.45)** (2.45)** (2.91)*** (3.02)*** (2.88)*** ln(auto95) -0.056 -0.041 -0.051 -0.033 -0.028 -0.06 -0.056 -0.(0.58) (0.43) (0.53) (0.38) (0.33) (0.67) (0.64) (0.46) unemployment95 -0.022 -0.018 -0.026 -0.(1.56) (1.33) (2.15)** (2.22)** poverty96 0.004 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.(1.21) (0.88) (1.58) (1.61) (1.12) (1.03) (1.05) gini95 0.779 0.814 1.136 1.131 1.193 1.(1.36) (1.41) (2.12)** (2.19)** (2.34)** (2.20)** agricult_share96 -0.004 0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.007 -0.003 -0.004 -0.(0.45) (0.24) (0.23) (0.73) (1.02) (0.40) (0.55) (0.96) industry_share96 -0.003 -0.003 0 -0.004 -0.004 0 -0.001 -0.(0.63) (0.61) (0.03) (0.92) (1.05) (0.09) (0.28) (0.44) privatization96 -0.192 -0.189 -0.208 -0.172 -0.171 -0.211 -0.216 -0.(1.17) (1.14) (1.25) (1.07) (1.08) (1.31) (1.35) (1.32) nonstability1 0.128 0.117 0.121 0.137 0.141 0.12 0.114 0. (2.43)** (2.24)** (2.27)** (2.73)*** (2.85)*** (2.38)** (2.29)** (2.51)** employ_govern96 -0.979 -0.753 -1 -0.866 -0.876 -1.065 -1.079 -1. (1.77)* (1.44) (1.78)* (1.77)* (1.80)* (2.08)** (2.12)** (2.09)** capture96 0.109 0.127 0.119 0.093 0.09 0.114 0.132 0.(1.28) (1.51) (1.38) (1.12) (1.09) (1.38) (1.65) (1.55) FDI96 -0.004 -0.002 (0.18) (0.11) (0.01) Small_ share95 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.004 0.(1.18) (1.02) (0.73) (1.69)* (1.65) (0.85) Taxes/GRP95 0.01 0.01 0.012 0.005 0.012 0.(0.78) (0.82) (1.02) (0.46) (1.06) (0.92) Ln(Population96) -0.109 -0.098 -0.09 -0.099 -0.097 -0.093 -0.089 -0. (2.56)** (2.35)** (2.17)** (2.58)** (2.57)** (2.49)** (2.41)** (2.30)** D_CIS -0.132 -0.111 -0.122 -0.149 -0.155 -0.125 -0.132 -0.(2.20)** (1.92)* (2.02)** (2.75)*** (2.97)*** (2.30)** (2.46)** (2.75)*** D_nonCIS -0.154 -0.123 -0.175 -0.158 -0.159 -0.18 -0.18 -0. (1.69)* (1.41) (1.92)* (1.82)* (1.85)* (2.09)** (2.11)** (2.16)** Constant 0.773 0.327 0.18 0.961 1.089 0.291 0.349 0.(0.87) (0.40) (0.22) (1.14) (1.38) (0.39) (0.47) (0.76) Observations 66 66 66 68 68 68 68 R-squared 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% TableB3.

Dependent variable: overall change in the share of unofficial economy in 1996-2000 (conservative elasticity scenario) ln(crime95) 6.275 7.415 7.844 5.535 5.48 7.856 8.164 7. (2.36)** (3.04)*** (2.72)*** (2.23)** (2.30)** (3.12)*** (3.27)*** (3.22)*** ln(auto95) -2.082 -1.559 -1.961 -2.872 -2.839 -2.624 -2.402 -1.(0.61) (0.46) (0.52) (0.95) (0.96) (0.80) (0.73) (0.62) unemployment95 -1.215 -1.116 -0.965 -0.(3.47)*** (3.30)*** (3.12)*** (3.18)*** poverty96 0.134 0.019 0.165 0.165 0.009 -0.012 -0.(1.07) (0.14) (1.40) (1.41) (0.08) (0.10) (0.13) gini95 19.17 20.712 33.702 33.908 36.671 33.(0.99) (1.08) (1.63) (1.72)* (1.87)* (1.78)* agricult_share96 -0.382 -0.222 -0.207 -0.498 -0.506 -0.241 -0.268 -0.(1.27) (0.85) (0.64) (1.87)* (2.02)** (0.91) (1.02) (1.25) industry_share96 -0.154 -0.161 0.077 -0.137 -0.139 0.038 0.029 0.(0.91) (0.96) (0.45) (1.01) (1.05) (0.29) (0.22) (0.13) privatization96 -6.592 -6.544 -9.943 -8.676 -8.653 -10.876 -11.162 -10.(1.10) (1.09) (1.52) (1.49) (1.50) (1.76)* (1.81)* (1.78)* nonstability_1 6.068 5.749 5.36 5.58 5.607 4.881 4.728 4.(3.26)*** (3.12)*** (2.63)** (3.07)*** (3.16)*** (2.55)** (2.47)** (2.65)** employ_govern96 -44.509 -38.21 -37.231 -36.272 -36.273 -40.076 -40.35 -39. (2.25)** (2.02)** (1.72)* (2.14)** (2.15)** (2.08)** (2.09)** (2.05)** SMI_free_produce -0.171 -0.182 -0.122 -0.167 -0.167 -0.126 -0.125 -0. (2.21)** (2.37)** (1.45) (2.17)** (2.18)** (1.58) (1.56) (1.53) FDI96 -0.509 -0.535 -0.(0.66) (0.70) (0.17) Small_share95 0.185 0.166 0.093 0.183 0.182 0.(1.86)* (1.70)* (0.88) (1.94)* (1.96)* (1.06) Taxes/GRP95 0.297 0.296 0.444 0.036 0.349 0.(0.68) (0.68) (0.93) (0.09) (0.80) (0.66) Ln(population96) -3.065 -2.716 -1.33 -2.805 -2.79 -1.767 -1.504 -1.(1.99)* (1.80)* (0.83) (1.95)* (1.97)* (1.21) (1.05) (0.94) D_CIS -5.754 -5.239 -5.211 -5.603 -5.636 -4.791 -4.864 -5.(2.83)*** (2.65)** (2.34)** (2.92)*** (3.02)*** (2.36)** (2.39)** (2.59)** D_nonCIS -4.823 -3.888 -5.849 -5.726 -5.702 -6.367 -5.82 -5.(1.73)* (1.46) (1.91)* (2.07)** (2.09)** (2.18)** (2.03)** (2.00)* Constant 63.686 52.422 17.898 72.572 73.23 28.102 28.595 31. (2.12)** (1.86)* (0.60) (2.45)** (2.58)** (1.07) (1.08) (1.23) Observations 69 69 69 73 73 73 73 R-squared 0.53 0.52 0.41 0.46 0.46 0.4 0.39 0.Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% C Table C1.

OLS regression Dependent variable: overall change in the share of unofficial industrial production in 1996-(unitary elasticity scenario) Ln(crime95) 5.992 6.712 5.885 5.698 5.434 4. (1.91)* (2.12)** (1.82)* (1.81)* (1.69)* (1.51) Unemployment95 0.707 0.355 1.321 0.711 -0.823 -0. (0.58) (0.30) (1.09) (0.58) (0.73) (0.37) Poverty95 1.071 1.227 1.199 1.09 1.148 1. (3.37)*** (3.55)*** (3.75)*** (3.42)*** (3.24)*** (3.10)*** Transferts/GRP95 -3.605 -3.636 -4.31 -3.606 -2.7 -2. (3.37)*** (3.40)*** (4.17)*** (3.36)*** (2.63)** (2.65)** Ln(automobiles95) -18.221 -20.274 -20.601 -17.783 -19.789 -17. (1.90)* (2.16)** (2.11)** (1.85)* (2.04)** (1.80)* Employ_government96 -52.746 -58.1 -76.991 -51.456 -55.284 -51. (1.00) (1.09) (1.46) (0.97) (1.00) (0.95) Taxes/GRP95 0.019 0.013 0.288 0.118 -0.675 -0. (0.02) (0.01) (0.26) (0.11) (0.61) (0.58) Capture95 -16.268 -14.053 -14.253 -18.276 -20. (1.94)* (1.66) (1.73)* (2.14)** (2.39)** Capture96 9.409 6.945 6.071 8.435 10. (1.14) (0.86) (0.73) (1.01) (1.27) Nonstability2 16.853 15.568 18.13 16.578 10.439 11. (3.37)*** (3.15)*** (3.56)*** (3.31)*** (1.94)* (2.19)** Nonstability1 12.731 12. (2.21)** (2.13)** Proreform96 -17.884 -18.614 -20.833 -19. (2.78)*** (2.90)*** (3.25)*** (3.09)*** Industry_share96 0.636 0.628 0.727 0.799 0.401 0. (1.56) (1.54) (1.75)* (2.09)** (0.99) (1.03) Small_enter_share95 -0.724 -0.703 -0.694 -0.638 -0.572 -0. (2.40)** (2.35)** (2.24)** (2.18)** (1.83)* (1.90)* D_CIS 2.684 1.887 4.898 4.782 -2.233 -1. (0.46) (0.32) (0.83) (0.86) (0.37) (0.24) D_nonCIS -14.974 -15.099 -13.454 -14. (1.67) (1.64) (1.51) (1.57) D_china -22.026 -20. (1.73)* (1.56) Constant 77.389 83.107 89.366 71.711 85.253 79. (1.25) (1.34) (1.41) (1.16) (1.33) (1.25) Observations 64 64 64 64 64 R-squared 0.53 0.53 0.49 0.51 0.5 0.* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% Table 2.

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