Table The Structure of Accumulated Foreign Investments by Main Investor Countries Accumulated by 01.04.2006, as USD mln Change as compared with 01.01.2006, % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other USA 6 754 3 576 502 2 676 87.7 77.9 99.0 102.Germany 10 000 3 141 43 6 816 81.6 94.6 2.5 94.France 3 651 761 0.4 2 890 98.7 71.9 100.0 109.Great Britain 11 610 2 616 161 8 833 98.4 90.0 95.3 101.Cyprus 31 835 21 582 1193 9 060 98.6 94.7 87.8 111.Netherlands 30 690 27 389 63 3 238 130.9 142.4 101.6 77.Luxemburg 26 780 651 204 25 925 117.1 110.9 100.5 117.Other coun30 149 13 310 602 16 237 104.4 99.4 66.0 111.tries Total 151 469 73 026 2 768 75 675 106.0 107.6 56.5 107.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Е. Ilyukhina Foreign Trade The trend for export growth rates slowdown and import growth rates acceleration, which outlined at the end of the last year against the background of high rates of ruble appreciation towards dollar and euro and the slowdown of world prices for oil rates decrease, has sustained.
The Russian Federation takes strong measures to control dumping import and simultaneously the quality of the imported consumer goods more and more often.
In April 2007 Russian foreign trade turnover, calculated by the balance-of-payments methodology, was equal to USD 44.2 bln, which exceeds the corresponding figure of the previous year by 24.7%. The import to Russia is growing by extremely high rates. In such a way, monetary value of import supplies increased by 45.1% in April 2007 as compared with April 2006, which is the absolute maximum since 1994. The volume of import in pecuniary terms was equal to USD 16.5 bln, being though lower than the record of December 2006 (USD 19.8 bln) and the level of March 2007 (USD 17.2 bln) but exceeding by 20% the average monthly level of 2006. Over four months of 2007 import was equal to USD 59.5 bln, being by 40.4% higher than in the corresponding period of 2006.
Export is growing considerably slower than import. In April 2007 it was equal to USD 27.7 bln, which is by 15.1% more than in April 2006. However as compared with the results of last months thanks to the resuming growth of the world prices for oil and other raw materials the export growth rates increased. In the first quarter 2007, according to the Central Bank data, they were equal to only 6%, and in January-April 2007 – to 8.4% to the corresponding period of the last year.
Since import grew at higher rates than export, foreign trade surplus reduced to USD 11.2 bln against 12.bln in April 2006. As compared with the similar month of last year the drop was 11.9%.
In April of the current year the acceleration of export growth is connected with the increase of oil export physical volumes against the background of resuming growth of world prices for oil. The volume of oil and gas condensate export from Russia in January-April 2007 was equal to 84.8 mln of tons, which is by 4.3% more than the similar figure for 2006. In April oil export from Russia was equal to 21.6 mln of tons.
The proportion of oil in the whole volume of Russian export over the four months of the current year dropped to 33% as compared with 34.9% in January-April 2006. At the same time the share of oil in fuel and energy goods increased up to 52.6% (the corresponding figure last year was equal to 50.9%). According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, in January-April 2007 Russia exported 52.6% of the oil produced, in April this figure was equal to 54.1%.
The maintenance of world prices for oil at high level in April 2007 is accounted for by the recovery of the trend for the growth of the demand for oil at the markets of Asia and the USA, the decrease in the stocks in the USA, the demand for the petrol growing dramatically in spring as well as geopolitical risks. Over months of the current year average real export price for oil was equal to USD 58 per barrel. The price for oil grade Urals at world market was equal to USD 63.97 per barrel.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Balance Export Import Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Fig. 1. Main Indices of the Russian Foreign Trade (as USD bln.) Besides, the prices for export metals went up. Average monthly prices at London Metal Exchange (LME) for aluminum, copper and nickel in January-April 2007 increased as compared with the corresponding period of the last year by 13.5%, 20.5% and 2.8 times, correspondingly.
In April 2007 average monthly price for aluminum increased by 1.9% as compared with March 2007 and by 7.4% as compared with April 2006. During the month prices for aluminum stuck to the range of USD 2735- 2866 per ton. Steady high demand for this metal is observed in the world.
In April 2007 average monthly price at LME for copper increased by 20.4% as compared with March 2007 and by 21.6% as compared with April 2006. High prices for copper is accounted for by sustaining high demand for this metal from China, which consumes about quarter of the copper produced in the world, and by seasonal increase of the demand from construction enterprises.
Long-term shortage of the nickel at the market was the incentive for considerable growth in prices for this metal. Only over last year the prices tripled. On 2 January 2007 the price maximum over last 10 years was reached – USD 52375.0 per ton. The growth of quotations was supported by the expected increase consumption growth from the fast developing economies of China, India and Japan as well.
TABLE Average Monthly World Prices in March of the respective year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Oil (Brent), USD/bbl 21.32 17.22 13.92 15.72 22.97 26.26 25.81 24.79 33.5 50.6 68 68.Natural gas, USD /mln BTU 1.966 2.548 2.187 3.052 5.200 3.408 5.390 5.785 7.422 7.964 7.Petroleum, USD /gallon 0.707 0.455 0.378 0.391 0.808 0.999 0.814 0.855 1.152 1.603 2.016 2.Copper, USD/ton 2574.9 2369.7 1775.3 1539.9 1710.1 1689.4 1620.8 1598.5 2950 3395 6370 7766.Aluminum, USD/ton 1590.2 1554.0 1413.5 1318.0 1448.0 1493.7 1370.3 1332.8 1734 1894 2620 2814.Nickel, USD/ton 8053.9 7312.4 5352.5 5239.5 9657.1 6303.1 6940.6 7915.3 12872 16142 17935 Source: calculated on the basis of London Metal Exchange, International Petroleum Exchange (London) data High growth rates of Russian import were promoted by significant figures of the GDP and real disposable population incomes, ruble appreciation against main currencies. According to the Ministry for Economy Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan July July July July July July July Development and Trade in January-April 2007 GDP growth was equal to 7.7% to the corresponding period of 2006, being 5.4% in January-April 2006. Real disposable incomes of the population increased by 11.5% in January-April 2007(In January-April 2006 – by 7.1%). According to the estimations of the Bank of Russia, effective ruble exchange rate lowered by 0.3%, and on the whole over January-April its appreciation was equal to 2.3%.
Moreover the decree of the Government on customs duty nullification for an extensive list of technological equipment whose analogues are not produced in Russia came into effect in May 2006. Thus, the absence of this factor in the basic period influences high import growth rates since it was developed in January-April 2007.
In the structure of Russian import in January-April 2007 as compared with January-April 2006 the proportion of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles increased from 44.1% to 48.3% due to a considerable growth of physical volumes of these goods import by 70.9%. Over the sane period the proportion of metals and goods thereof increased from 7.1% to 8.4% also because of anticipating growth of physical volumes by 84.4%.
In the goods structure of import the decrease of chemistry production and rubber goods proportion occurred - from 17.4% to 14.4% - due to the decrease in prices despite the increase in physical volumes of such goods import. The decrease of the foodstuffs, agriculture raw materials and mineral products proportion took place despite the increase both in prices and physical volumes of such goods import. The monetary growth rates of foodstuffs, agriculture raw materials and mineral products were, however, behind the import growth rates of other goods groups.
The increase in the proportion of textile and textile goods, footwear import from non-CIS countries was accompanied by the decrease of these goods share in the import from CIS countries. Quite an opposite situation was observed for timber and pulp and paper goods import.
The growth of Russian import physical volume is to be noted in all main goods groups.
At the same time Russia more and more often takes strong measures to control dumping import and simultaneously the quality of import consumer goods. The import of Polish meat goods has not been allowed yet, the sale of rice and sesame from India has recently been banned, and the limitations for import fish products as well as poultry from the Czech Republic were introduced from June.
From 5 June 2007 Russia forbade import of rice, sesame and peanuts from India, which is one of the biggest rice, sesame and peanuts suppliers to the Russian Federation (about 60%). Supplies of Indian goods are also banned from the territory of other countries. Actually this ban is in effect from 1 May of the present year but goods import proceeded by the certificates issued earlier, now, however, a total ban is imposed.
The attempts to sell rice, sesame and peanuts from India, which is dangerous for consumers’ health, in Russia are of traditional character. For example, in January of the current year the supplies 54 tons of peanuts, contaminated by grain stocks pests were prevented, in March pests were detected in the rice consignment of 125 tons from India. And in February the attempt to import sesame with the traces of moldiness was averted.
Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision has recently suggested to Indian party to make the procedure for each rice consignment to be accompanied by the information on pesticides used to grow and store rice, which is exported to Russia, the date of last treatment being mentioned. These suggestions were however practically rejected.
Similar measures can be taken against some other Asian countries-suppliers, but this issue is still being elaborated. The situation is however complicated by the fact that Russia as well as other G8 member countries gave foreign trade preferences for nearly 80 developing and underdeveloped countries, which are by the way WTO members in contrast to Russia. So the limitations for their export goods are fraught with the problems in WTO.
The issue of meat import from Poland to the territory of Russia remains unsolved. Veterinary services of the European Union, to which the Russian Federation appealed to assist in problem solution, responded that the solution of the problem is in the field of politics at the moment.
It should be remembered that in autumn 2005 Russia imposed limitations on meat import from Poland due to violations of veterinary and phytosanitary requirements and stated to Warsaw the list of measures to be taken for the embargo to be lifted.
In order to tackle this problem the first step was taken – from 1 May 2007 Russia allowed the import of pedigree cattle from Poland. The matter concerns animals which were born and bred in livestock breeding enterprises of Poland and certified for the export to the Russian Federations by the experts of Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision togther with the representatives of polish veterinary service.
In June 2007 Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision imposed the ban on poultry import from the Czech Republic due to discovered there bird flu. Russia used a standard procedure. It consists in the following: if Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision is informed by the International Epizootic Bureau (IEB) that a highly pathogenic bird flu appeared in some country but does not receive detailed information on thes outbreak on 21st day (that is for incubation period) the import of poultry from this country is suspended. In case the detailed information is received, the import from the safe zone is allowed and the limitations for contaminated region remain.
Also from June 2007 Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision toughens considerably the conditions for fish import as well as quality control at the foreign enterprises. This is accounted for both by dumping and the quality deterioration of fish import goods. Such measures concern nearly 20 supplying country.
The proportion of import fish at the Russian consumer market exceeds 55%, in big cities far away from water fish areas being even 70-80%. Now such products should be supplied to the Russian Federation only from the enterprises certified by Russian specialists.
According to the estimations of the Federal Service of Fishing and Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision the cases of dangerous diseases detection in products supplied became more frequent. This is especially characteristic for the supplies from Asian-Pacific region. In April-May 2007 the supplies from all uncertified enterprises of Vietnam and Japan were banned. By the end of May only 15 out of 25 Vietnamese enterprises examined had passed certification successfully. The check-ups are being conducted in Norway, Iceland, Uruguay, Chili and will soon start in Argentina and China.
N.Volovik Business and Education: New Opportunities for Interaction The quality of specialists’ professional training by higher education institutions deteriorates and the possibilities of its increase are connected with the expansion of business participation, the right for which has recently been granted by a number of recently adopted regulatory acts at the federal level.
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