The growth of pressure import on domestic market is restricted by the trend for processing industries growth rates acceleration, which has been observed since the second half of 2006. Anticipating growth of processing industries as compared with extraction industries has been a characteristic feature of the economy growth for last three years. Though the proportion of growth rates by individual kinds of economic activities was subject to considerable fluctuations, on the whole it demonstrates a gradual shift from the growth based on the exploitation of natural raw materials traditional factors, which is directed mainly to the external market, to the formation of internal market growth resources.
Over January-May 2007 the growth of processing industry was equal to 111.9% against 105.6% over the corresponding period of the previous year, extractive industries – to 103.4% against 102.3% against the background of reduction in electricity, gas and water production and distribution by 4.0%.
In January-May 2007 the increase in machinery and equipment production was equal to 119.3% and reached mainly as a result of mechanical equipment production growth (128.9%), including hydraulic turbines (175.6%), gas turbines (146%).
Along with the increase of the construction scale the demand for construction equipment supported by targeted supply of budget funds for roads and municipal infrastructure construction and repair works went up. Tower cranes output grew by 60.7% as compared with January-May 2006, caterpillar tractors - by 130.5%, excavators – by 20.1%, bulldozers – by 161.7%, lifts – by 26.6%, motor graders – by 4.5%. Beginning with 2006 the output of machine-building productions for fulfillment of the priority national project “Development of ago-industrial complex”: in January-May 2007 machinery and equipment production for agriculture and forestry increased by 4.7% Increase in engineering tools production by 22.5% in January-May 2007 was in many respects accounted for by the necessity to renovate and modernize technological equipment fleet at new, higher technological level, enhancement of the assortment and increase of the domestic equipment competitiveness. It should be noted that it is for the first time over the last years that the positive dynamics is observed for nearly all production items, monitored by the statistics.
In January-May 2007 increase in electric, electronic and optic equipment production was 115.1%. Steady dynamics of AC motors production (115%) is mainly accounted for by the adoption of new electrotechnical productions of energy efficient, competitive electric motors, for which there is an increased demand, by the enterprises.
The growth of transport vehicles and equipment production was 117.4% in January- May 2007 as compared with January-May 2006. At the same time production of motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers was growing with anticipating rates (119,6%), including trucks – 122.3%, passenger cars – 113,0%, vehicles for municipal needs – 121.3%. Growth of production is in many respects accounted for by intensive development of assemblage enterprises of passenger cars, increase in orders for machine-building equipment in the framework of national projects fulfillment as well as the growth of export supplies of some kinds of machine-building production.
Increase in transport machine-building production output is in many respects accounted for by the increase in the demand from JCS Russian Railways and independent carriers for rolling-stock for railway roads net as a result of the capacity growth of the passenger and freight transportation as well as purchase increase for equipment renovation as a result of critical deterioration of the domestic railway equipment fleet. In January-May 2007 the increase in main line diesel locomotives output was 3.1 times, раза, shunting and industrial diesel locomotives of broad gauge – 125.7%, machinery for construction and planned repair – 190.2%.
Since 2002 the dynamics of the production of intermediate demand has been in the field of positive values. The nature of metallurgic, chemistry, woodworking productions’ operation was determined by the level of internal and external demand. In January- May 2007 growth of metallurgical production and production of finished metal goods as compared with the corresponding period of 2006 was equal to 106%, including metallurgic production –to 104.7%, and finished metal goods – to 111.9%. The increase of the demand from pipeline transportation construction organizations had positive influence on the dynamics of steel pipes by 25.0% as compared with January-May 2006.
Chemistry complex is basic segment of Russian economy. In the structure of industry by the volume of goods production its proportion is about 5.5%, complex enterprises accounted for about 5.4% of the allRussian currency earnings. In January-May 2007 growth of the industry production was equal to 109.3% and of the rubber and plastic goods production – to 123.8%. As compared with January-May 2006 the increase of the output in all main kinds of chemistry production, except from polyvinylchloride resin and man-made fibers and threads.
The capacity of internal market for chemistry production being big, the main factors that restrict the operation of chemistry complex are high extent of equipment deterioration and technology backwardness; anticipating price and tariffs growth rates for the production of natural monopolies; problems with industry’s enterprises supply with main kinds of raw materials, especially hydrocarbons, and limited investment resources.
T Fig. 1.T The Change in the Rates of Industry Production by kinds of Economic Activities in January-May 2005-2007, as percentage to the previous year 17,transport vehicles production 5,15,electric equipment production 14,machinery and equipment 19,-7,production metallurgy production 11,non-metal mineral goods 21,8,production rubber and plastic goods 23,16,production 9,chemistry industry 2,coke and oil products 4,6,production 8,pulp and paper production 6,woodworking 1,leather, goods thereof and 14,12,footwear production 8,textile and clothing industry 11,11,foodstuffs production 5,11,processing industries 5,6,except fossil fuels 2,3,fossil fuels extraction 2,3,minerals extraction 2,7,industry 4,-10-5 0 5 2005 2006 О. Izryadnova Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy In 1 quarter 2007 the increase of the investments in the fixed assets was equal to 20.1% against 5.7% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Over January-May 2007 the volume of the investments in the fixed assets was RUR 1685.3 bln and exceeded the level of the last year corresponding period by 11.1%.
At the beginning of 2007 considerable changes occurred in the structure of the investments by the sources of financing. The structure of the obtained funds was determined by the increase of Russian banks’ share in crediting of the investment process up to 8.5% as compared with 5.6% in 1 quarter 2006.
In Russian economy the tendency for the anticipating growth of the investments in the fixed assets as compared with the GDP dynamics has been observed since 1999. In 1 quarter 2007 the increase in the investments in the fixed assets was equal to 20.1%, and by the GDP – 7.9%, against 5.7% and 5.0%, correspondingly, over the similar period of the previous year. Over January-May 2007 the volume of the invest,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ments in the fixed assets was RUR 1685.3 bln and exceeded by 11.0 p.p. the level of the corresponding period of the previous year.
Steady positive dynamics of the production changed the situation in the investment sector. The expansion of investment demand proceeds against the background of favorable changes in hydrocarbons and mineral raw materials price situation at the world market, on the one hand, and active strategy of Russian business at the domestic market, on the other hand. And it is the anticipating growth rates of the domestic as compared with the external demand that has had the most significant influence on the level of investment demand since 1 quarter 2005. The accumulated effect of the internal factors, which regulate the level of the business activity, accounted for the intensive growth of the investments in the fixed assets as well as structural characteristics of fixed assets.
Along with the improvement of the indices of enterprises and organizations financial situation the change in the structure of the investments in the fixed assets by financing sources in 1 quarter 2007 was accounted for by the continuation of the trend for the increase in borrowed funds. The positive moment of the beginning of 2007 was the sustention of the trend for the expansion of banks’ sector participation in the investing process financing. The share of the Russian banks credits in the structure of the investments financing was equal to 8.5% against 5.6% over the corresponding period of the previous year. The formation of this trend was partially compensated by reserved activity of insurance and investment companies as well as foreign capital in the investment activity financing. The share of loans for enterprises and organizations in the sources of investment in the fixed assets financing decreased by 0.9 p.p. as compared with 1 quarter and foreign banks credits – by 2.0 p.p.
It should be noted that the change in the trends for capital flow of the domestic private sector had the positive influence on the character of investment financing. Beginning with 2 quarter 2006 the change in the trends for capital flow-out from the sector of non-financial enterprises and households is observed. Whereas in 1 quarter 2006 net capital flow-out from the sector of the non-financial and households was equal to USD 1.7 bln, over 1 quarter 2007, according the 1 quarter 2007, net inflow of the capital by non-financial enterprises and households was equal to USD16.5 bln.
Another characteristic feature of 1 quarter 2007 was the increase of budget funds share in the investment financing structure by 1.1 p.p. due to the increase of budget funds of the subjects of the Federation participation. In 1 quarter 2007 the share of the budget funds, which were used for the investments in the fixed assets, was equal to 1.3% of the GDP and exceeded by 0.3 p.p. the figure of the previous year.T In 2007 to fulfill Federal Target Investment Program (FTIP) it is supposed to use state investments RUR 475.4 bln, which is 1.5% of the GDP against 1.38% in 2006. However, in fact the financing of the federal programs in 1 quarter usually proceeds with a big delay. According to the Ministry for the Economy Development and Trade data, by 05.04.2007 quarterly distribution of target indicators and indices was agreed upon by 17 state customers for 25 Federal Target Programs out of 46, which are being fulfilled in (54%). For other Federal Target Programs (46%) state customers started the fulfillment of program measures without coordinated quarterly values of target indicators and indices, which, certainly, will complicate quarterly estimation of these programs efficiency fulfillment.
T The trends for the formation of the investments financing sources in the state sector remained nearly the same as in the previous year. According to the forecast in 2007 it is expected that about 30% of the total volume of the investments in the state sector will be financed at the expense of the state sector organizations’ own funds and 70% - at the expense of borrowed funds, 55% of which accounts for budget funds. It is the state sector that continues to prevail by the volume of the investments in the fixed assets in the kinds of economic activities, oriented towards strategic goals.
It is the anticipating growth of the state investments in production complex as compared with the dynamics of the state investments in special and social complexes that is characteristic for FTIP in 2007. 67.8% of the investments for the development of the national economy is supposed to be directed towards transportation system and information and communication infrastructure construction and modernization. It is planned to direct the biggest part of the funds for the development of road sector, which will enable to improve interregional motor traffic and unload existing motor roads. In 2007 state investments envisaged to fulfill FTIP, solve fuel and energy complex problems are to grow considerably. In comparable prices 4 times more budget funds are directed for these purposes than in 2006.
Table Structure of the Investments in the Fixed Assets by Sources of Financing in I quarter, as percentage to the total 2003 2004 2005 2006 Investments in the fixed assets 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.including 1. Own funds 49.1 44.8 47.8 48.9 46.including profit 19.0 15.5 19.8 21.4 20.2. Inflow of funds 50.9 55.2 52.2 51.1 53.including Budget funds 17.3 14.9 14.0 12.3 13.Of which:
From the Federal Budget 5.0 3.5 3.7 2.6 2.From the Budgets of the regions of the Russian 11.6 10.7 9.7 8.9 10.Federation Bank credits 4.3 7.9 6.5 9.3 9. Including foreign bank loans 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.7 0.Borrowed funds 6.6 10.9 12.5 8.1 7.Non-budget funds assets 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.Others 21.2 20.9 19.6 20.9 23.Foreign in vestments of the total volume of the 5.8 9.0 10.3 8.1 5.investments in the fixed assets Source: Federal State Statistics Service Changes in the structure of the investments in the fixed assets over the last four years are defined by gradual reduction of the share of investments into industrial production development against the background of infrastructure and services becoming more important. It is to be noted that 2006 and the beginning of demonstrate the upsurge in investment activity in the agriculture, initiated by the inclusion of this kind of activity in the priority national projects. In the environment of steady growing demand for trade services redistribution of the investments by kinds of economic activities proceeds along with material and technical base for motor vehicles trade expansion. The growth of the investments in this field was equal to 118.2% to the level of I quarter 2006.
In 2007 the trend for investments in the fixed assets growth for the kinds of activities, which are oriented to social service rendering - education (144.4% as compared with 1 quarter 2006), health care (107.2%), scientific research and development (114.8%), culture and sport (154.4%) – sustained.
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