The similar indicators for portfolio and other investments in industry are estimated as 2% (0,3%) and 55% (64,2%), correspondingly.
Changes in the regional pattern of foreign investments in Russia economy, that took place in the 1st quarter of 2005, concerned primarily with considerable reduction of investments from Germany (67,1% against the 1st quarter of 2004). In 2003, Germany was a leader among the countries investing in the RF. In the 1st quarter of 2004 it occupied the 3d place. Currently, it occupies the 7th position among the ten countries – major investors in the Russian economy, while in the 1st quarter of German investments in the RF amounted only $ 260 million, 53% of which were put in the trade and catering.
Географическая структура иностранных инвестиций, поступивших в РФ в 1 квартале 2005 г. (в скобках представлены данные за 1квартал 2004 г.).
9,0% (12,3%) Швейцария; 6,0% (4,9%) Нидерланды; 16,4% (13,2%) Source: Goskomstat of Russia The highest growth of investment in the RF was marked in the 1st quarter of 2005 from Luxemburg (the volumes of investment increased 14,9 times and made $ 955 million), major part of which in the form of credit means was put in mining operations (21,3% of aggregate investments in the RF in the 1st quarter of 2005 from Luxemburg) and communications (73,9%).
In the 1st quarter of this year the share of 5 major investing countries accounted for 64% of the total volume of put investment (1st qu. 2004 – 65%).
This year the sectoral preferences of investors from the Netherlands are concentrated in mining operations ($ 898 million or 91,1% of Dutch investments in the RF), while all investments were put in this sphere as direct investments. As in the previous year, the Netherlands became the largest foreign investor in the Russian fuel industry.
This year an interest of investors from Great Britain lowered in metallurgy. In the 1st quarter of 2005 as much as $ 110 million or 20,3% of investments from Great Britain (1st qu. 2004 - $ 216 million or 28,5%) came to that sector. For the 1st quarter of 2005, as much as $ 135 million or 25% (1st qu.
2004 - $ 225 million or 29,7%) of investments were put in the trade from Great Britain.
Because of considerable reduction of foreign investments that came for the first quarter of this year, Germany could not hold the leading position in the structure of foreign investments accumulated as of April 1, 2005 (it moved to the 4th position, giving way to Cyprusу, Luxemburg and the Netherlands).
As of late March of 2005, the volume of accumulated foreign investments in the Russian economy amounted $ 85 bn, which by 49,1% is higher than the figure of the end of March 2004. In parallel to this, the accumulated foreign investments from the Netherlands and Luxemburg grew against the end of March 2004 data, 3,8 and 1,7 times accordingly.
The Structure of Accumulated Foreign Investments by Major Investing Countries Accumulated as of 01.04.2005, mln dollars Changes to 01.01.2005, % In all Direct Portf. Other In all Direct Portf. Other USA 6 484 4 245 398 1 841 -2,1 -1,5 -4,8 -2,Germany 8 667 2 083 7 6 577 -7,0 -18,3 -12,5 -2,France 3 621 414 0 3 207 -6,5 -4,4 -100,0 -6,Great Britain 8 140 1 377 141 6 622 -6,1 -14,0 -0,7 -4,Cyprus 16 096 11 972 716 3 408 16,7 18,6 22,4 9,The Netherlands 12 761 9 778 32 2 951 6,4 11,1 -25,6 -6,Luxemburg 13 518 288 1 13 229 13,8 9,5 0,0 13, Other countries 15 807 7 683 331 7 793 -0,2 -5,0 -16,4 6,Total 85 094 37 840 1 626 45 628 3,8 4,7 2,1 3,Source: Goskomstat of Russia Unfavorable is the fact that in the current year investments from Russia abroad exceeded the volumes of foreign investment in the Russian economy.
Иностранные нвестиции в РФ и инвестиции из РФ за рубеж в 1 квартале 1999-2005 гг.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Инвестировано в РФ Инвестировано из РФ Source: Goskomstat of Russia Early in June 2005 the bill on special economic zones (SEZ) was submitted to the State Duma for consideration (ОЭЗ). In 2006, 10 SEZ is planned to organize in the territory of the RF: 5 – industrialproduction and 5 – technico-introductional. Implementation of the law on SEZ will allow to reduce on average by 23-29% the costs of residents investing in the free zones and will allow to attract additionally to Russian economy more than $ 300 million.
E. Ilyukhina млн.
Real Economy: Factors and Trends In Q1 of 2005, the volume of GDP accounted for 4364,9 bln rubles in money terms and increased by 5.2% as compared to QI of 2004. Since the beginning of 2005, a slowdown in production growth rates was typical of almost all manufacturers of products. The index of industrial production accounted for 103.6% in the period between January and May 2005 against 106.9% in the corresponding period of the preceding year, while 105.3% against 114.5% in construction industry and 102.8% against 107.8% in terms of transport turnover.
Besides, the specific feature of economic development in the current year depends on the fact that manufacturing industry has ceased to be the leading force in industrial production growth, while manufacturing industry has failed to compete with the import. The growth in mining industry in the period between January and May 2005 accounted for 1.9% against 8.3% in the similar period of the preceding year, and 4.9% against 8.0% in manufacturing industry.
The Federal Service for Public Statistics made its first assessment of GDP for the current year in accordance with the Rules of Data Processing and Publishing. The volume of GDP in Q1 of accounted for 4364,9 bln rubles in money terms and increased by 5.2% as compared to Q1 of 2004.
The upward movement of the produced GDP was facilitated by advancing growth in wholesale and retail trade, transport industry, communication industry, fee-based municipal housing services and social services thus diminishing the effect of slowdown growth rate trends in industrial production and construction industry. Priority growth of market services against production of goods and non-market services was one of the basic factors that resulted in changes of economic structure, since this economic sector supported the demand for investment and labor resources.
Table Incremental Growth Rates in Real Volume of Produced GDP in the Period Between 2004 and 2005 ( as % of the corresponding period of the previous year ) 2004 Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Gross Domestic Product 107.6 107.7 107.1 106.4 105.including :
agriculture, hunting and forest management 99.1 99.0 103.8 100.6 100. mining industry 107.9 108.2 106.2 106.2 103. manufacturing industry 109.6 108.4 107.9 106.5 99. production and distribution of electric power nergy, gas and water 99.6 103.5 100.4 100.6 100. construction 113.9 114.7 106.9 107.7 104. Wholesale and retail trade ; repairs of transport facilities, motorcycles, household appliances and personal demand items 109.5 110.5 110.2 110.3 109. Transport and communication 109.4 111.7 111.2 109.9 106.Net taxes on products 108.7 105.4 109.2 105.6 107.Source: the Federal Service for Public Statistics.
A moderate growth in production of goods governed the domestic demand movement: capital investments yielded the leadership in favor of final consumption of households. Expansion of consumer demand was supported by a positive movement of personal incomes. Incremental growth in real personal incomes accounted for 8.1%, actual earnings for 8.3% and actual size of granted pensions for 7.0% in the period between January and May 2005. Under the increase in retail trade turnover by 11.0% by the period between January and May 2004, the growth rate of capital investments accounted for 8.9% and was by 3.5 percentage points below the level of the preceding year.
Since the beginning of 2005, declining growth intensity was typical of almost all manufacturers of goods. The index of industrial production in the period between January and May 2005 accounted for 103.6% against 106.9% in the corresponding period of the preceding year, 105.3% against 114.5% in construction and 102.8% against 107.8% in transport turnover.
Structural changes in industry occurred under priority growth in manufacturing industry as compared to raw materials industry. However, in spite of accelerating monthly growth rates in manufacturing industry at the beginning of the current year, the total growth rate in manufacturing industry in the period between January and May 2005 accounted for 4.9% against 8.0% in the similar period of the preceding year. Differentiation of production rates by separate economic activity is typical of the current year.
-2003 2004 Figure 1. Changes in Industrial Production Growth Rates by Industry in the Period Between January and May of 2003 – 2005 ( as % of the corresponding period of the previous year ) Production of consumer goods in the period between January and May of the current year was characterized by a stable growth in the category of food products ( 104.3% ) at the backgrounds of permanent crisis in textile, clothing and leather and foot-wear industries. A share of imports in the output of products is maintained at a level of 33% under the existing growth rates and price level of domestically produced food products. The non-food product market shows an increase by almost 2 percentage points in a share of imports as the RUR exchange rate strengthens and Russian goods loose their competitive power, as compared to Q1 of 2004.
The year 2005 is characterized by coping with the decline in wood fashioning industry and wood product manufacturing by way of dynamic growth in production of materials for cabinet-making.
Growth rates in chemical industry accounted for 102.6% in the period between January and May as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. An increase in the chemical products output resulted from the growth of production of mineral fertilizers by 3.1% which was initiated by a 34% increase of world prices and reduction of export taxes in March 2005. A 11.1% decline in the output of chemical fibers and yarns is explained by a high degree of depreciation of equipment and fairly low competitive power of domestically manufactured products vs. their imported equivalents.
Manufacturing industry is characterized by maintaining advancing growth rates in production of electric equipment, electronic and optical equipment ( 115.3% ), machinery and equipment ( 109.4% ).
Dynamic growth in production of machinery and equipment for metallurgic enterprises, oil production and railroad transport keeps having a positive effect on the investment products market.
At the same time, however, a negative trend keeps advancing in motor industry. Production of motor cars decreased by 5.7% and cargo trucks by 11.3% in the period between January and May 2005 as compared to the similar period of the previous year. Also, a shift in consumer demand towards the Electric equipment production Production of transport facilities Production of machinery and equipment Wood fashioning Chemical industry Manufacturing industry Production of non-metal mineral products Rubber and plastic goods production Pulp and paper industry Metallurgic industry Food production Coak and oil product production segment of motor cars produced at enterprises with foreign ownership as well as imported ones had a material effect on the domestic motor industry. In the period between January and May 2005, overall production of motor cars at enterprises with foreign ownership increased by 24.1% as compared to the similar period in 2004. There is no doubt that this process was activated by the adopted measures aimed at reducing import taxes on various types of manufacturing equipment and component parts for assembly plants.
The competitive power of Russian production industry keeps weakening under strengthening RUR exchange rate and slower growth rates in labor productivity. The domestic demand growth rates are far behind the growth in imports. According to the FTS, import of motor cars increased by 1.65 times in the period between January and April 2005, and focusing on import of low-price equipment and facilities can oust domestic manufacturers from the domestic market. Under the circumstances, there is an absolutely positive news on start-up of production of motor cars by a joint-venture which was set up by Renault concern ( France ) ( 76% of shares ) and the Government of Moscow ( 24% of shares ).
Autoframos ( 250 ml US dollars of investments ) was reconstructed by French shareholder Renault in order to produce a motor car model specially designed for emerging markets. Nearly 20% of Russian component parts are provided for production of this model. Toyota company ( Japan ) also announced its plan to build up an assembly motor car plant in Saint-Petersburg at the value of 150 ml US dollars;
construction of the plant is scheduled for spring 2006 and start-up at the end of 2007. Most importantly, the Toyota project provides for production of motor cars not only for Russia but also the entire Europe. In addition, there is a good chance to attract traditional suppliers of component parts in participation in the production. New assembly plants with participation of foreign companies would change the competitive environment in the domestic market, create additional working places and facilitate the development of related industries in the Russian economy.
I II III IV I 2004 -Industry Mining operations ископаемых Fuel and pow er resources production Manufacturing industry производства Production and distribution of electric pow er, gas and w ater Figure 2. Changes in Industrial Production Growth Rates by the Period Between January and May of 2003 – 2005 ( as % of the corresponding period of the previous year ) The decline in motor industry by 5.9% as compared to the period between January and May 2004, not only resulted in moderate development of production of transport facilities, but also effected the set of related industries of general mechanical rubber goods and engineering plastics whose output was reduced by 4.8%. A decrease by 2.5 percentage points in growth rates of metallurgic production and production of finished metal goods was recorded under the existing movement in production of investment-purpose goods in the current year as compared to the period between January and May 2004.
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