2005 3.49% 3.61% 3.39% 3.09% 2.5% 2007 4.43% 5.23% 4.68% 4.46% 4.4% 2010 5.77% 6.26% 5.72% 5.52% 5.4% 2018 6.19% 6.74% 6.26% 5.91% 5.7% 2028 6.82% 7.24% 6.76% 6.40% 6.2% 2030 6.07% 6.51% 6.03% 5.65% 5.4% МБК-MIACR one-day loan rate ( as % per year at 0.94% 1.49% 5.54% 5.71% 8.0% the end of the month ) official RUR/USD exchange rate at the end of the 27,7738 27,8256 27,7726 28,0919 28,month ( RUR/USD ) official RUR/Euro exchange rate at the end of the 36,6281 36,0564 36,0072 35,1963 34,month ( RUR/Euro ) incremental growth in official RUR/USD ex- -1.11% 0.19% -0.19% 1.15% 2.07% change rate per month ( % ) incremental growth in official RUR/Euro exchange 0.01% -1.56% -0.14% -2.25% -1.91% rate per month ( % ) RTS stock market turnover per month месяц ( ml 416,70 363,30 347,72 203,62 US dollars by stock included into the list of stocks for the RTS index calculation ) RTS -1 index value at the end of the month 716,59 669,42 671,61 674,44 Changes in the RTS -1 index per month ( % ) 11,90 -6.58% 0.33% 0.42% 4.7% * Оценка D. Polevoi Investments in Real Economy In the period between January and May 2005, the capital investment index exceeded by 8.9% that in the similar period of the preceding year. The structure of investments underwent significant changes in terms of sources of financing. It should be noted, however, that the trend relating to increased participation of insurance and investment companies, industrial and trade enterprises and foreign investors in investment financing kept going upward.
The volume of capital investments in the period between January and May 2005 accounted for 961,2 bln rubles and increased by 8.9% against 12.4% in the corresponding period of the preceding year. In Q1 of 2005, total share of capital investments in the GDP remained at the level of the preceding year accounting for 11.8% of GDP.
Early in 2005, the structure of investments was changed in terms of sources of financing under a decrease in the volume of borrowed funds down to 52.2% against 55.2% in Q1 of 2004. The structure of borrowed funds was governed by a decrease in the share of banks in the investment crediting proc ess down to 5.7% in the current year against 8.0% in Q1 of 2004. It should be noted, however, that the trend relating to increased participation of insurance and investment companies, industrial and trade enterprises and foreign investors in investment financing kept going upward at the backgrounds of a low-profile activity of banks. The share of borrowed funds of Russian organizations increased by 2,percentage points as compared to Q1 of 2004 and by 8.5 percentage points against Q1 OF 2002. In general, the share of foreign investments accounted for 10.3% of the total volume of capital investments in Q1 of the current year against 9.0% in the corresponding period of 2004 and 2.7% in 2002.
Indeed, complex situation in the business sector and lack of confidence in the Russian public institutions and security of ownership rights increase foreign investment risks. However, taking into account a stable growth of revenues generated from oil and gas sales and upgraded sovereign credit rating of Russia, the international banking society considers it fairly reasonable to maintain high investment rates in terms of country diversification of activity.
Table Structure of Capital Investments by Source of Financing in Q1 OF 2002 – 2005 ( as % of total ) 2002 2003 2004 Capital investments 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.Including 1. Capital base 53.6 49.1 44.8 47.of which profit 21.4 19.0 15.5 19.2. Borrowed funds 46.4 50.9 55.2 52.of which Budget funds 20.4 17.3 14.9 14.Including those from:
the RF federal budget 5.8 5.0 3.5 3.budgets of constituent entities of the Russian 12.2 11.6 10.7 9.Federation Bank loans 3.8 4.3 8.0 5.Borrowed funds 4.0 6.6 10.9 12.Extra-budgetary funds 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.Other 18.6 21.2 20.9 19.Of the total volume of foreign capital investments 2.7 5.8 9.0 10.Source: the Federal Service for Public Statistics.
The share of base capital in the structure of sources of financing increased by 3.0 percentage points as compared to Q1 of 2004. The upward trend in the share of base capital in the structure of sources of financing resumed under accelerating income growth rates in the economy. Over the period between January and April 2005 ( according to updated information ) a positive balanced financial performance by basic type of business activity amounted to 879,7 bln rubles thus increasing by 36.0% as compared to the similar period of the preceding year. Raw material industries remain leaders in incremental growth rates of revenues generated from economic operations. Balanced financial performance figures increased by 1,52 times ( 197,0 bln rubles ) in the field of raw material production as compared to the period between January and April 2004, and by 1,4 times ( 310,0 bln rubles ) in manufacturing industries and by 1,1 times ( 67,3 bln rubles ) in the field of production and distribution of electric power, gas and water. The profit retained by organizations and enterprises was used for financing 19.8% of the total volume of capital investments.
It should be noted that rates of investments in real economy slowed down by 3.5 percentage points at the backgrounds of growing economic revenues as compared to Q1 of 2004. The share of capital investments in production of goods decreased by 1.6 percentage points ( 57.0% ) as compared to Q1 of 2004. With regard to service production, the share of transport and trade in the total volume of capital investments increased by nearly 2.1 percentage points, which made it possible to stop the downward trend in the rates of investment in these industries. The share of investments in communication industry was reduced by nearly 2.7 percentage points as compared to the preceding year.
Table Structure of Investments by Branch of Economy in Q1 OF 2002 - ( as % of total ) 2002 2003 2004 Industry 47.9 50.2 49.5 51.Agriculture 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.Transport industry 15.8 15.1 15.7 17.Communication industry 3.6 3.1 6.7 4.Construction industry 3.2 3.8 3.1 3.Trade 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.Source: the Federal Service for Public Statistics.
Marked changes occurred in the industrial structure of investments in the section of goods. A share of investment expenditures in industry and construction increased as compared to Q1 of 2004.
The extractive industry accounted for the biggest share ( 47.3% ) of investments in industry as a result of Q1 of 2005. A share of investments in fuel and power resource extraction industry decreased by 5.2 percentage points as compared to the preceding year, which was affected by a sharp decrease in investment activity throughout the entire 2004. Investments in oil production grew almost by 1/3 at the beginning of the current year as compared to Q1 of 2004. This, however, was sufficient neither for elimination of negative effects of low rates of exploration drilling, nor increase in oil production growth rates.
Figure 1. Changes in the Structure of Capital Investments in Production Industry in Q1 of 2005 as Compared to Corresponding Q1 of the Preceding Year, as % ------A gradual increase in the share of investments in development of refining industry has been a characteristic feature over the last few years. In Q1 of 2005, investments in refining industry accounted for 39.0% of the total volume of investments in production industry and increased by 3.7 percentage points as compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year. Changes in the structure of in Food production Mining operation Refining industry Wood fashioning Chemical industry Metallurgic industry Transport facility production water Electric equipment production Wood-pulp and paper industry Coak and oil product production Textile and clothing manufacture Fuel and power resource industry Rubber and plastic good production Other than fuel and power resources Machinery and equipment production Production and distribution of power energy, gas and vestments by refining industry were governed by an increase in investment activity in metallurgic industry, food production and wood fashioning. In this case, investment activity in food production was facilitated by growing demand in the domestic market, while investment activity in metallurgic industry depended largely upon the growing demand for metallurgic products and metal goods items in the external market. It should be noted that while metallurgy was characterized by simultaneous growth of share of investments in manufacturing and extracting industries, the fuel and power resource industry saw a growing trend in reduction of investments in oil refining.
In Q1 of 2005, investment rates slowed down in machinery and equipment production, while the volume of investments in machine building industry decreased by 6.9% under a reduced competitive strength in pricing. The technological structure of investments was characterized by an continuing trend in increase in a share of machinery and equipment. A share of machinery and equipment in the structure of capital investments increased by 1.2 percentage points accounting for 35.9% as compared to Q1 of 2004. Domestic machine building industry, however, fails to meet the growing investment demand for both volumes and structure of capital goods supply. A share of machinery and equipment increased by 1.5 percentage points in the import pattern and accounted for 41.0%, while their monetary volume increased by 1,31 times as compared to the period between January and April 2004. In Qof 2005, investments in purchase of imported equipment accounted for 24.9% of the total volume of investments in machinery, equipment and transport facilities against 23.5% in the similar period of the preceding year. Imports remain one of the main sources of basic capital replacement, reconstruction and modernization of production under the existing structure of domestic production of investment goods.
O. Izryandnova Foreign Investments in Russian Economy Beginning of the year is characterized by decreased appeal of the Russian market for foreign investors. The total volume of foreign investments that came to the nonfinancial sector of Russian economy without account of the bodies of monetary regulation, commercial and saving banks, including the dollar-denominated ruble investments, made up in the 1st quarter of 2005 Rb 6.02 bn, which by 2,4% less than the relevant period of previous year.
Иностранные инвестиции в российской экономике в 1 квартале соответствующего года, млн.долл.
100000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Накоплено на 1 апреля Изъято за квартал Поступило за квартал Source: Goskomstat of the RF Against lowering of the total volumes of foreign investments in the Russian economy, direct investments in the 1st quarter of 2005, versus the 1st quarter of 2004 rose by 30% (to $1.92 bn). In parallel with that, portfolio and other investments decreased by 10,1% (to $ 80 million) and by 12,7% (to $ 4 billion), accordingly. Reduction of other foreign investments is observed the second year in succession (in the 1st qu. of 2004 their reduction against the 1st qu. of 2003 was 11,7%).
накоплено поступило / изъято Despite considerable growth of direct investments in the 1st quarter of this year, as before, the largest amount of aggregate foreign investments (66,8%) in the Russian economy, falls on other investments (1st qu. of 2004 - 74,7%).
Talking of direct investments, we should note that favorable is an increase of сontributions to the authorized fund of enterprises located in the territory of the RF against not high credit constituent of direct investments.
Table Direct Foreign Investments that Came to the RF in the 1st Quarter of 2003- Changes in % to relevant In mln dollars In % to the result period of previous year 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 Direct foreign invest1034 1476 1919 100 100 100 +24,7 +42,8 +30,ments, in all Including:
3,- сontributions to the 310 1058 1564 30,0 71,7 81,5 -13,4 +47,times authorized fund - credits from coown421 321 324 40,7 21,7 16,9 +25,6 -23,7 +1,ers of enterprises - other direct invest- 2,303 97 31 29,3 6,6 1,6 -68,0 -68,ments times Source: Goskomstat of Russia At the start of this year changing of sectoral orientation of foreign investments in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2004. Considerably decreased the volume of foreign investments in nonproductive sectors. Best of all foreign investors are putting up means this year in industry, wherein 55,6% of aggregate foreign investments were invested in the Russian economy in the 1st quarter of 2005. As last year, trade and catering appeared the second most attractive sectors for foreign investors. In parallel with that, the volume of foreign investment in this sphere reduced almost 2 times, which led to reduction of its share in their structure to 18,2% (1 qu. 2004 - 31,3%).
Table Sectoral Structure of Foreign investments in Russian Economy in the 1st quarter of 2002- Changes in % to relevant period In mln dollars In % to the result of previous year 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 Industry 1727 2900 3346 27,6 47 55,6 -1,6% 67,9% 15,4% 3,Construction 30 55 20 0,5 0,9 0,3 83,3% -63,6% times Transport and communi- 2,506 163 781 8,1 2,6 13,0 -67,8% 4,8 times cations times Trade and catering 3282 1934 1094 52,4 31,3 18,2 2,5 times -41,1% -43,4% Commercial activity on 243 541 461 3,9 8,8 7,7 16,8% 122,6% -14,8% market service Finances, credit, insurance 5,59 236 261 0,9 3,8 4,3 4 times 10,6% retirement insurance times 5,9 times Other industries 421 342 58 6,7 5,5 1,0 55,4% -18,8% decrease Source: Goskomstat of Russia Following the results of the 1st quarter of 2005, industrial distribution testifies less concentration of investments in the limited number of production industries, though, as before, foreign investors keep up an interest to investing in fuel industry and metallurgy. In parallel with this, the processing industry becomes more and more attractive: foreign investors invested in it more than $2 bn, which by 14% exceeds the level of the 1st quarter of 2004.
Отраслевая структура иностранных инвестиций в промышленность в 1 квартале 2005 года (в скобках приведены данные за 1 квартал 2004 г.) Топливная; 28,5% (31,0%) Прочие отрасли;
41,8% (25,1%) Металлургия;
Химическая; 8,6% 21,1% (39,6%) (4,4%) Source: Goskomstat of Russia The structure of foreign investments, put in industry in the first quarter of this year, differs from the similar structure of aggregate foreign investments in Russian economy by higher share of direct investments, which account for 43% of all foreign investments in industry (1st quarter of 2004 – 35,5%).
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