Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.104.External Factors Effecting the Russian Stock Market Early in the month the situation in the global oil market depended largely upon the condition in the US oil market. Quotations remained at the previously reached levels under a considerably high volatility of trading. In the first half of the month an OPEC summit made a decision to increase, as previously expected, the quota by 500 thousand barrels daily. This, however, had no effect whatsoever on oil quotations, since the decision actually legalized the current oil production level that exceeds the official one. In fact, this meant that the cartel lost mechanisms of influence on the market situation and led to oil price growth. Oil quotations were significantly effected by an unstable situation in Nigeria, where the United States, Germany and Great Britain had to close their representatives due to a threat of terrorist acts.
At the end of the month global oil prices continued to grow and WTI quotations broke the level of $60 US dollars. The growth depended largely on the situation with oil and oil product reserves in the United States, where market speculations were based upon expectations of US oil reserve deficit. In addition, a special emphasis should be made on political factors. Radicals won the presidential elections in Iran, which is listed among the top-four oil producers in the world, which may suggest a deterioration of relations between Iran and the United States and consequently lead to reduction of Iranian oil supply to the world market. The above factors encouraged growth of oil quotations which are likely to continue growing in the future.
The situation in the global stock markets remained complex in June ( see Table 1). The basic US stock market indices declined, while the European stock market indicators and indices of developing countries showed a considerable growth.
Early in the month the US stock market indices declined at the backgrounds of oil price growth and negative economic statistics. On the one hand, industrial production growth indices were found to be lower than the expected ones. The same is true with the data on the number of unemployment insurance requests. On the other hand, consumer confidence indices and inflation figures improved. Then the US stock market entered a stage of consolidation, as there were no significant news.
At the beginning of the second half of the month, the US stock market indices recovered due to a fairly positive economic statistics. So, inflation growth rates decelerated, industrial indicators resumed their growth, the situation in the housing market and employment remained favorable. Retail prices and record deficit of current account positions remained negative factors. Continuous oil price growth 05.05.24.05.09.06.28.06.14.07.30.07.17.08.02.09.20.09.06.10.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.31.12.26.01.11.02.02.03.21.03.06.04.22.04.13.05.30.05.16.06.as well as insufficient but medium-negative economic statistics available at the end of the month resulted in a downward trend in US shares quotations.
120% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite Индекс РТС 110% 100% 90% 80% It should be noted in analyzing the effect of external factors on the Russian stock market in June that their significance depended upon domestic economic and political situation. At the beginning of the month, market quotations relied upon high oil prices and relatively favorable conditions in the markets of developed and developing countries in absence of significant domestic news. At the same time, the quotations ceased to respond to external news, which served as an additional supportive factor at most, with an advent of significant corporate news.
Corporate News OJSC Lukoil Late in June, the company published its consolidated financial report for Q1 2005, prepared in accordance with the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ( US GAAP ). According to the report, net profit of the company was $1 180 ml US dollars thus exceeding by 44.1% the similar period of the preceding year. Earning before interest, taxation, depreciation & amortization ( EBITDA ) increased by 38.7% and reached $1 959 ml US dollars. Sales revenue increased by 62.1% as compared to Q1 2004 and amounted to $10 557 ml US dollars.
An 2004 operating statement of the Company and accounting report for the fiscal year were approved at an Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of OJSC LUKOIL which was held at the same date.
OJSC Gazprom An Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of the Company was held on June 24, which approved the annual report and accounting report of OJSC Gazprom for 2004, including profit and loss account. The meeting approved allocation of company’s profit on the basis of the results achieved during the fiscal year, including annual dividend payment. In particular, the meeting approved the size of dividends on the basis of the results achieved by OJSC Gazprom in 2004, 1.19 rubles per share.
This is the maximum size of dividends allocated in the history of the company. Total amount of dividends in 2004 amounted to 28 171.5 ml rubles or 17.5% of the net profit. December 31, 2005 was set as a date of dividend payment. These resolutions meet in full the recommendations of the Board of Directors.
30.04.18.05.03.06.21.06.07.07.23.07.10.08.26.08.13.09.29.09.15.10.02.11.18.11.06.12.22.12.07.01.25.01.10.02.28.02.15.03.31.03.18.04.04.05.19.05.06.06.22.06.OJSC Rostelekom On June 25, OJSC Rostelekom published the results of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of the Company which was held on June 25, 2005. The meeting approved the annual operating statement and annual accounting report, including profit and loss account of OJSC Rostelekom, allocation of profit and losses according to the results of the fiscal year under report ( 2004 ).
The meeting also approved the size of dividends: 2.9738 rubles per one preferred share and 1.rubles per one common share. Total volume of dividend payments on preferred shares and common shares will be 722.1 ml rubles and 1 063,4 ml rubles respectively, which respectively accounts for 10.0% and 14.7% of the total net profit of the Company in accordance with the Russian Accounting Standards ( RAS ).
OJSC Sberbank of Russia Sberbank of Russia held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on June 24, 2005. It approved Bank’s 2004 annual report, balance sheet as of January 1, 2005 to the amount of 4 136 678 635 thousand rubles; profit and loss report for 2004 and profit to the amount of 52 573 844 thousand rubles.
Net profit amounted to 43.7 bln rubles, which exceeds almost by 30% the net profit in 2003. Bank’s capital increased by 24.6 bln rubles over the year and reached 173.0 bln rubles against 148.8 bln rubles in 2003. Net profit was the only source for capital growth. It should be noted that the Bank showed record operating figures in 2004.
Later on, on June 27, Sberbank of Russia published its operating statement for 2004 according to the International Accounting Standards. Net profit of the bank amounted to 19.3 bln rubles thus exceeding by 38% the similar parameter of 2003.
Global Stock Market Indices Movement Changes per Changes since Data as of May 27, 2005 Value month ( % )10 year beginning (%) 700.00 4.26% 15.21% RTS ( Russia ) 10290.78 -2.39% -4.09% Dow Jones Industrial Average ( United States) 2045.20 -1.47% -4.97% NASDAQ Composite ( United States ) 1190.69 -0.67% -0.95% S&P 500 ( United States ) 5043.50 1.15% 4.05% FTSE 100 ( Great Britain ) 4523.82 1.78% 5.41% DAX-30 ( Germany ) 4157.68 0.63% 7.83% CAC-40 ( France ) 6191.10 0.49% 7.32% Swiss Market ( Switzerland ) 11414.28 1.98% -0.90% Nikkei-225 ( Japan ) 25226.00 3.06% -1.93% Bovespa ( Brazil ) 13454.73 2.46% 3.32% IPC ( Mexico ) 2063.51 5.77% 14.90% IPSA ( Chili ) 2206.71 2.41% 6.60% Straits Times ( Singapore ) 991.11 3.14% 10.90% Seoul Composite ( South Korea ) 26597.80 8.77% 4.53% ISE National-100 ( Turkey ) 565.97 2.80% 4.38% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index As compared to the levels of May 27.
Foreign Exchange Market A marked and sustained strengthening of the USD against the RUR was noted in the domestic foreign exchange market in June. At the beginning of the month, a sharp weakening of the RUR reflected the global foreign exchange market’s ( FOREX ) response to the rejection of a single EU Constitution at the relevant referendums held in France and Netherlands, which was followed by publication of a negative economic statistics on European countries. These factors forced down the Euro exchange rate against the USD to the nine-month lows, which approached $1.2 US dollars per Euro. The RUR exchange rate also demonstrated a decline under the circumstances. Then, the USD exchange rate slightly decelerated as a result of the effect of alternate factors. Further growth of the exchange rate was facilitated by expectations of an interest rate increase in the United States, while this was restricted by negative expectations prior to publication of the data on the US trade balance, and substantial oil price growth.
During the second half of the month, rates of currencies depended largely on global trends. In particular, the USD/Euro exchange rate declined due to a series of factors. First, net purchases of US securities by non-residents in April were found to be below the expected figures. Second, current account positions deficit remains record high. Third, the situation in Nigeria gave rise to a risk of terrorist acts against Americans. Finally, technical over-purchase of the American currency was the last relevant factor.
Among the domestic factors that had an effect on the RUR were high oil prices and traditionally less demand for foreign currency due to tax payments at the end of the month. However, the USD resumed its growth against the Euro at the end of the month upon correction of the former, which was also caused by the fact that leaders of France and Great Britain had reached no agreement on a sevenyear budget of the European Union. The RUR demonstrated the same movement in relation to the USD.
In the period between June 1 and 29, the USD exchange rate grew by 0.39 rubles ( 1.38% ) and was 28.58 rubles per US dollar. Total volume of trading on USD in the SELT electronic trading system was nearly $26.44 ml US dollars with an average weighted turnover being $1.56 ml US dollars ( nearly $21.6 bln US dollars with an average weighted turnover being $1.27 bln US dollars in May ) in the period between June 1 and 24 June. Maximum volume of trading on USD over the foregoing period was recorded on June 22, which was nearly $2.45 bln US dollars, while the minimum trading volume was $861.9 ml US dollars on June 10.
RUR liquidity in the Russian banking sector remained unchanged in June 2005 as compared to May 2005: balances on corresponding accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia averaged nearly 248.9 bln rubles in June against 248.4 bln rubles in May.
In the period between June 1 and 28, the Euro exchange rate dropped by $0.014 (–1.18% ) down to 1.2163 US dollars per Euro in the world market. There was a marked weakening of the Euro against the RUR at these backgrounds. In the period between June 1 and 29, the Euro exchange rate declined against the RUR by 0.22 rubles, ( –0.62% ) from 34.91 to 34.69 rubles per Euro. Total volume of trading on the Euro in the SELT electronic trading system was nearly 151.78 ml Euro with an average weighted turnover being 8.93 ml Euro ( nearly 136.36 ml Euro with a daily average being 8.02 ml Euro in May ) in the period between June 1 and 24. In June these figures are slightly above the similar parameter in May. Maximum volume of trading on the Euro over the same period was recorded at 13.39 ml Euro on June 22, while the minimum trading volume was 5.87 ml Euro on June 6.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2004-40.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 39.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 22.214.171.124.1.1. roubles 01.05.16.05.31.05.15.06.30.06.15.07.30.07.14.08.29.08.13.09.28.09.13.10.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.27.12.11.01.26.01.10.02.25.02.12.03.27.03.11.04.26.04.11.05.26.05.10.06.25.06.USD/EURO 01.05.31.05.30.06.30.07.29.08.28.09.184.108.40.206.27.12.26.01.25.02.27.03.26.04.26.05.25.06.Table 2.
Financial Markets’ Indices Month February March April May June* monthly inflation 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% Potential annual inflation on the bases of the cur- 15.39% 16.77% 14.03% 10.03% 6.2% rent month trend The RF Central Bank’s refinance rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Average yield to maturity of ОФЗ ( as % per year) 7.08% 7.32% 7.23% 7.17% 7.2% by all issues GKO-OFZ market turnover per month ( bln rubles) 18,31 23,25 28,44 22,59 22,yield to maturity of Minfin Bonds at the end of the month ( as % per year ):
5 tranche 5.17% 5.77% 5.39% 5.24% 5.0% 6 tranche 4.99% 4.45% 4.26% 4.33% 4.2% 7 tranche 5.75% 6.19% 5.87% 5.68% 5.4% 8 tranche 4.53% 4.65% 4.69% 4.58% 4.4% yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month ( as % per year ):
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