The intensive growth in industry and amount of works in construction, which compensated the negative influence of decline in output of agriculture, had the decisive effect on the structure of proUS $ million duced GDP. As a result, the share of the commodities sector made 38.3 per cent of GDP increasing by 0.9 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003. The dynamic growth in production of goods was supported by expanding demand for services. The outpacing rates of growth in market services in comparison with the dynamics demonstrated by production of goods and nonmarket services was a key factor behind the changes in the structure of the economy, since exactly this economic sector demonstrated growing demand for investment and labor resources. In comparison with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2003, the share of industries rendering market and nonmarket services in the total amount of investment in fixed assets increased by 3.0 p. p., while the average annual number of employed grew by about 1.2 p. p.
Table Rates of growth in the amounts of real GDP produced in the 1st quarter of 2001 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year 1st quarter 2001 2002 2003 Gross Domestic Product in market prices 104,7 103,8 107,5 107, including:
Production of goods 105,6 103,2 106,9 107,industry 105,4 102,8 106,5 107,construction 105,6 109,6 113,6 113,agriculture 107,0 102,5 101,1 98,Production of services 103,7 103,9 108,0 107,market services 104,7 104,3 109,0 107,including:
transport 103,0 104,4 106,4 106,communications 117,8 123,trade 104,4 106,5 112,8 108,non-market services 98,5 101 102,4 102,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics Over the first five months of 2004, the increase in output of production and services of base sectors of the economy made 7.7 per cent as compared with 7.1 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The high level of business activity was observed across practically all sectors of the economy: the amount of industrial output increased by 7.0 per cent, while the amount of retail trade and the construction grew by 11.0 per cent and 14.9 per cent respectively. The exceptionally favorable business situation on world markets of energy resources and metals had a positive effect on the acceleration of rates of economic development. In January through May of 2004, the amount of exports increased by 26.1 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In the 1st quarter of 2004, the increase in export of crude oil made 15.6 per cent as compared with 8.4 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while export of ferrous metals grew by 38.3 per cent (as compared with 30.8 per cent in the same period of the last year). This ratio between rates of development across sectors reflects the specifics of economic dynamics this year.
At the background of stable expansion of external demand, export oriented industries have retained their leading positions in the Russian economy. In January through May, the production index in fuel industry made 108.3 per cent, including oil extracting branch – 110.1 per cent and oil processing sector – 100.7 per cent. Over the same period, output of ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy increased by 5.9 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively.
Due to high profitability of export operations, in January through April of 2004 the net financial results demonstrated by the export oriented sector increased by 73.0 per cent as compared with the average 62.9 per cent across industries. In January through April of this year, the net profit of oil extracting industry increased 2.4 times, while ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy demonstrated growth 1.9 times and 1.6 times respectively. The results of economic operations in manufacturing industries are characterized by more modest dynamics. This year, the net financial results of mechanical engineering became positive and made 137.6 per cent as compared with a 7.5 per cent decline registered in January through April of 2003, while in food industry the increase in net profits made 17.2 per cent in comparison with 9.6 per cent observed a year ago.
On the domestic market, the situation was determined by the expansion of both investment and consumer demand. In January through May of 2004, the increase in output of goods of final demand made 10.8 per cent, while the growth in output of industries of the investment complex and consumer complex increased by 13.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively. Mechanical engineering (114.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in January through May of 2003) and food industry (107.per cent) have most significantly affected the structural changes in industry. Light industry is in the situation of a permanent crisis: the decline in its output in comparison with the figures observed in January through May of 2003 made 2.3 per cent.
2001 2002 2003 Export oriented Investment Consumer Figure 1. Changes in the rates of growth across industrial and production complexes in January – May in 2001 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year The moderate dynamics of production of consumer goods were observed at the background of expanding effective household demand. In early 2004, there was again restored the trend towards outpacing rates of growth in wages and salaries in comparison with labor productivity. The growth in real household incomes and changes in the structure of their utilization were additional characteristics of economic growth. In January through May of 2004, the real disposable household incomes increased by 9.9 per cent, while real wages and salaries grew by 14.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. As compared with the data collected in January through May of 2003, the increase in sales on nonfood goods made 12.5 per cent, while sales of foodstuffs grew by 9.5 per cent. The increasing gap between rates of growth in domestic production and increasing household demand was bridged at the expense of imports. However, in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of the preceding year, the share of imports in the formation of commodity resources of retail trade has declined by 2.0 p. p. and made 44 per cent. Among the factors explaining this situation, there are should be first of all pointed out, first, the development of competitive sector of domestically produced food products for the domestic market, and, second, the changes in the structure of the retail trade turnover and imports in favor of organized trade, as well as, third, gradual formation of the systems facilitating sales of domestically produced goods.
At the same time, the high share of imported goods in retail trade with nonfood goods, as well as in investment resources demonstrates that in the post-crisis period the processes of restructuring and diversification of branches of light industry and mechanical engineering were not adequate to the dynamic changes in effective demand. In the Russian economy there persists the trend towards an outpacing rate of growth in imports in comparison with the dynamics of domestic production. As concerns the results of the 1st quarter of 2004, imports grew by 21.3 per cent, while the growth in household consumption increased by 8.2 per cent, investment demand grew by 13.1 per cent, and production of intermediate goods increased by 6.8 per cent. The gradual decline in the prices of imports at the background of gradual Ruble appreciation facilitated the persistence of high import dynamics. However, according to the IET data (see S. Tsukhlo IET business survey: industry), the major factor affecting the competitive capacity of Russian products is the technological backwardness of production and obsolete equipment. In this situation, the expansion of imports rather compensates for the low business activity of Russian businesses in the manufacturing sector of the economy than is a factor checking the development of domestic production. An analysis of changes in the structure of imports demonstrates a stable increase in the share of machinery and equipment. In the 1st quarter of 2004, the specific weight of import of machinery and equipment in the commodity structure of imports made 43.4 per cent and by 5.5 p. p. exceeded the respective indicators observed in 2003 and 2003. Apparently, the measures aimed at reduction of import duties on certain types of technological equipment and completing parts for assembly production facilitated higher intensity of this process.
The estimates of macroeconomic indicators made by IET for the end of 2004 demonstrate that in the case the current trends and scenario based changes in conditions of functioning of the economy the persistence of intensive dynamics of external and investment demand remain the major factors of growth. In the case the increase in investment in fixed assets and exports as expected is at 111.5 per cent and 118.1 per cent respectively, in 2004 GDP may grow by 6.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.
O. I. Izryadnova Oil-and-gas sector The state of development of the oil-and-gas sector of the economy in January-May 2004 was characterized by the same tendency of oil and gas production growth. Oil production growth came to 10.percent in comparison with the respective period of last year, which was specified mainly by an increase in export volume. World prices on crude oil remained at the very high level, which allowed to considerably increase export revenue. Current situation in the world oil market permits to count on preservation in the near future of high world prices on oil and favorable external conditions for the development of the oil-and gas-sector.
World prices on oil that determine the state of Russian oil-and-gas sector remained at an exceptionally high level in recent months. Due to a reduction in oil production in Iraq and restriction in oil production introduced by the OPEC countries, the average price of OPEC oil basket considerably surpassed the upper limit of targeted price band of $US22-28 per barrel set by the organization and average price of Russian Urals for the last three months and came to $US31.8 per barrel (Table 1).
Table World oil prices in 2000-2004 $US/barrel 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 February January March April May Oil prices Brent, 28,5 24,4 25,0 28,83 31,2 30,8 33,7 33,2 37,Great Britain 0 4 2 3 3 9 5 Oil prices Urals, 26,6 22,9 23,7 27,04 28,8 27,6 30,30,13 35,Russia 3 7 3 8 4 Source: OECD International Energy Agency.
State of development of the oil-and-gas sector of the economy in January-May 2004 was characterized by the same tendency of oil and gas production growth (Table 2). Growth of oil production volume in comparison with the respective period of past year came to 10.2 percent, growth of gas production amounted to 2.8 percent. At the same time, there was recorded a certain reduction in investment activity: the volume of oil production drilling in January-April 2004 went down by 8.5 percent in comparison with the previous year, the number of new wells put into operation went down by 3.6 percent. Exploration drilling for oil continued to decline (by 15 percent in comparison with the previous year), which can be explained by a rather high level of current oil reserves. At the same time, a sharp growth of investment activity was recorded in gas sector: volumes of production and exploration drilling on gas in the first quarter of 2004 went up in 2.5-3 times in comparison with the previous year.
Grade of oil processing in January-April 2004 in petroleum refining industry grew from 63 percent up to 70.2 percent and the share of high-octane petrol in the overall production volume of motor gasoline grew from 48.3 percent up to 52.7 percent.
Table Production of oil, oil products and natural gas in 2000-2004 in % to previous period 2000 2001 2002 2003 JanuaryMay Oil 105,9 107,7 108,7 111,1 110,Gas condensate 103,8 106,7 112,8 108,7 118,Primary oil refining 102,7 103,2 103,3 102,7 100,Motor gasoline 103,6 100,6 104,9 101,2 102,Diesel oil 104,9 102,0 104,7 102,0 101,Heating oil 98,3 104,2 107,1 100,3 94,Natural gas, bln cub. M 98,5 99,2 101,9 103,4 102,Gas condensate, bln. Cub. M. 102,5 105,0 110,5 119,3 108,Source: Goskomstat of Russia Considerable price growth is recorded in the current year on domestic market. To a considerable extent, it is connected with high level of world oil prices and enhancement of oil export (including transportation by rail). In April average domestic oil price (producers’ price) in dollar terms reached $US79.6 per ton, which represents the maximum price level on crude oil recorded for the whole postreform period (Table3, Graph 1). At the same time, considerable gap in the levels of domestic and world oil prices remained. Considerable price growth on natural gas was recorded in the first months of the year (to $US9.5 per thousand cubic meters, which is also a historic maximum).
Table Domestic prices on oil, oil products and natural gas in dollar terms in 2000-(average producers’ prices, dollars/ton) 2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2004 г. 2004 г. 2004 г.
Decem- Decem- Decem- Decem- January Febru- March April ber ber ber ber ary Crude oil 54,9 49,9 60,7 70,1 70,1 76,3 79,9 79,Motor gasoline 199,3 151,5 168,8 236,9 236,8 231,0 234,2 229,Diesel oil 185,0 158,5 153,8 214,3 224,3 223,4 225,5 227,Heating oil 79,7 47,1 66,1 66,0 66,5 66,4 65,4 66,Gas, dol- 3,1 4,8 5,9 4,4 8,8 9,3 9,4 9,lars/thousand cub m Source: calculated on Goskomstat of Russia data.
Oil export in the first quarter of 2004 in comparison with corresponding period of the previous year increased by 15.6 percent, oil products – by 6.0 percent. The export share in commodity resources of diesel oil amounted to 52.7 percent, heating oil – 40 percent, motor gasoline – 17 percent. (for comparison, in the year 1999 the export share in production of motor gasoline amounted only to 7.2 percent). As a result of growth on the domestic prices of oil products and increase of real value of the ruble import of oil products considerably went up (by 82 percent in comparison with first quarter of 2003). Growth rates of gas export decreased in comparison with previous year (from 2.1 percent in first quarter 2003 down to 1 percent in first quarter of current year).
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