MICEX quotation listing of the first level comprises bonds issued by 11 subject of RF, whose overall volume constitutes 88.7 billion rubles and municipal bonds of an issuer (issuance volume—0.7 billion rubles). Bonds issued by the Government of Moscow dominate. StPCEX quotation listing of first level includes only bonds issued by the Finance Committee of the Administration of St. Petersburg (number of issues of the overall volume in circulation as of March 1, 2004 amount to 10.6 billion rubles). However, management companies participating in the discussion of investment issues that took place in mass media ignored them.
Among subfederal bonds, which were marked by management companies as complying criteria set by the Government Resolution N379, but which are not in quotation listing “A” of first level are bonds issued by Irkutsk, Kostroma, Tomsk, Yaroslavl oblasts and Chuvash republic. Management companies also noted municipal bonds of Novosibirsk as valid for investment. Overall issuance volume of these was enacted on July 1 by the Resolution of the Federal Securities Commission dated 26 December 2003 N 0354/ps List of issuers of corpora.te bonds that do not enter quotation list of the highest level but purchase of their bonds private management companies do not exclude, include Bashkirenergo, Bashinformsviaz, Mechel, Tsentrtelecom. Cumulative volume of bonds issued by them constitutes 2.25 billion rubles.
bonds constitutes 4.1 billion rubles. These bonds meet requirements put to the volume of issuance and trading turnover for placement of pension savings into them. However, they are included in MICEX quotation listing “B”.
On the whole, even taking into account additional requirements the list of permitted instruments designed for investing provides management companies with a sufficient choice of instruments for investing those amounts, which they received in their trust. Prospects for a considerable increase of this amount in the near future are vague due to approved by the State Duma amendments to the Federal law “On compulsory pension insurance in the Russian Federation,” according to which citizens born before 1967 are excluded from the savings pension system, which leads to a reduction in contributions to the pension system by about 23 percent in the year 2005.Marushkina E.V., Sycheva L.I., Tochilkina O.S., Mikhailov L.V.
Foreign investment in the Russia's economy The beginning of this year is characterized by the persisting attractiveness of the Russian market for foreign investors. According to the results of a study carried out by the Ernst & Young agency, Russia was included in the top ten most attractive countries in terms of investment and was recognized as one of the most prospective country for investment in the world (the study based on the survey of top managers of 513 companies in February and March of 2004).
The total amount of foreign investment in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy (not taking into account the monetary and credit regulating authorities, commercial and savings banks, and including Ruble denominated investment in US $ equivalent made US $ 6171 million in the 1st quarter of 2004 and practically has not changed in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year (US $ 6268 million in the 1st quarter of 2003).
Иностранные инвестиции в российской экономике в 1 квартале соответствующего года, млн.долл.
60000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Накоплено на 1 апреля Изъято за квартал Поступило за квартал Source: RF Goskomstat In comparison with the developments observed last year, there have been registered significant changes as concerns the types of foreign investment. Thus, direct investment and portfolio investment increased 1.5 times and 5 times respectively, while “other” investment declined by 11.7 per cent.
In spite of a significant growth in portfolio investment in the 1st quarter of this year, their specific weight in the aggregate foreign investment in the Russian economy remained at a very low level (1.per cent). “Other” investment still account for the major share of foreign investment.
As concerns direct investments, it should be noted that there was observed positive developments as contributions to authorized capitals of enterprises located in the Russian territory grew 3.4 times (up to US $ 1.06 billion). At the same time, the credit component of direct investment somewhat decreased.
Calculation on the basis of forecast накоплено поступило/изъято Прямые иностранные инвестиции, поступившие в РФ в 1 кв.2004 г. (в скобках представлены данные за 1 кв.2003 г.) Прочие прямые инвестиции 6,6% (29,3%) Кредиты от совладельцев Взносы в капитал предприятий 71,7% (29,9%) 21,7% (40,7%) Source: RF Goskomstat The sectoral structure of foreign investment also underwent significant changes. The amount of foreign investment in non-production sectors has significantly diminished. This year, foreign investors prefer to invest in industry (47 per cent of the total foreign investment in the Russian economy in the 1st quarter of 2004), trade, and public catering (31.3 per cent). The amount of foreign investment in different industries made US $ 2.9 billion, what is by 67.9 per cent above the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003.
Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2002 through Change in comparison with the figures registered in the US $ mil. In % of the total 1st quarter of the preceding year 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 Industry 1755 1727 2900 48,5% -1,6% 67,9% 46,3 27,6 47,3,Construction 8 30 55 -42,9% 83,3% 0,2 0,5 0,times Transport and communica- 2,234 506 163 -18,8% -67,8% 6,2 8,1 2,tions times 2,Trade and public catering 1302 3282 1934 в 3,54 р. -41,1% 34,4 52,4 31,times Commercial activities relat208 243 541 98,1% 16,8% 122,6% 5,5 3,9 8,ing to market servicing Finance, credit, insurance, 5,11 59 236 -76,6% 4 times 0,3 0,9 3,pensions times Other sectors 271 421 342 -62,0% 55,4% -18,8% 7,2 6,7 5,Source: RF Goskomstat In the 1st quarter of 2004, there was observed a decline in the concentration of investment in a group of certain industries. Although foreign investors still demonstrate interest in fuel industry and metallurgy, they pay more attention to the Russian manufacturing sector. Thus, in the 1st quarter of this year investment in mechanical engineering increased almost 3 times in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2003 and made US $ 204 million, while investment in forestry, wood working and pulp and paper industry grew 3.3 times (up to US $ 206 million) and exceeded the level of foreign investment in food industry accounting for US $ 197 million of investments, what is by per cent below the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2003.
The branch structure of foreign investment in industry in the 1st quarter of 2004 (the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 are in brackets) Other industries 9.6 % (12.0 %) Forestry and wood Fuel industry 31.0 % working 7.1 % (3.6 %) (26.4 %) Food industry 5.8 % (14.0 %) Mechanical engineering and metal working 7.0 % (4.0 %) Metallurgy 39.6 % (40 %) Source: RF Goskomstat The structure of foreign investment made in industry in the 1st quarter of 2004 significantly differs from the similar structure of aggregate foreign investment in the Russian economy. Thus, direct investments make 35.5 per cent of the total foreign investment in industry (the share of direct foreign investment in the aggregate indicators made 23.9 per cent). Similar indicators relating to portfolio and “other” investment in industry are evaluated to be at 0.3 per cent (1.4 per cent) and 64.2 per cent (74.per cent) respectively.
Foreign investment in industry in the 1st quarter of 2002 through Change in comparison Specific weight (in %) in the with the figures registered US $ mil. respective aggregate indicain the 1st quarter of the tors preceding year 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 в 2,Direct investment 407 460 1030 4,9% 13,0% 49,1 44,5 69,р.
Portfolio investment 8 14 8 times 75% 9,1 77,8 8,42,9% less Other investment 1340 1253 1862 77,7% -6,5% 48,6% 46,6 24,0 40,Source: RF Goskomstat A rather significant growth in investment in industry may be in part explained by the fact that a number of Russian regions grants foreign investors subsidies from regional budgets permitting them to pay the profit tax at reduced rates.
In the 1st quarter of 2004, there were observed significant changes in the geographical structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy, primarily related to an almost 3.5 times decline in the amount of investment from Germany, which was the leader among investing countries according to the data for the 1st quarter of 2003. Thus, while in the 1st quarter of 2003 German investment made US $ 2.7 billion, this year they are evaluated to be at US $ 790 million. Traditionally, “other” investment prevailed in the investment to the Russian Federation made by German investors (the share of such investment makes about 90 per cent of the German investment in Russia).
Geographical structure of foreign investment in Russia made in the 1st quarter of 2004 (the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 are in brackets) Germany 12.8 % (43.4 %) Other countries 30.% (22.7 %) USA 4.5 % (2.8 %) Cyprus 21.9 % (10.%) the Netherlands 13.2 % (3.0 %) UK 12.3 % (13.0 %) Switzerland 4.9 % (5.2 %) Source: RF Goskomstat In the 1st quarter of 2004, the most significant growth in investment in the RF was registered with respect to the Netherlands (the amount of investment increased 4.3 times and made US $ 815 million).
The five largest investing countries accounted for 65 per cent of the total amount of foreign investment accumulated in the 1st quarter of 2004.
In the 1st quarter of this year, German entrepreneurs demonstrated their interest in the sphere of metallurgy (US $ 362 million, or 45.8 per cent of the aggregate German investment in the RF), as well as trade and public catering (US $ 259 million, r 32.8 per cent). It should be noted that German investment in trade and public catering declined 7.4 times in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003, primarily due to a more than 8 times decline in the amounts of crediting of this sphere.
Investors from the Netherlands invested US $ 660 million, or 81 per cent of their total investment in the Russian economy in the 1st quarter of 2004 in fuel industry. Direct investment accounted for 99.per cent of the total Dutch investment in fuel industry. At the same time, this year the Netherlands became the largest foreign investor in fuel industry.
This year, British investors preferred to invest in metallurgy (US $ 216 million, or 28.5 per cent of the total investment in the RF from UK made in the 1st quarter of 2004), as well as trade (US $ million or 29.7 per cent), as compared with US $ 105 million (12.9 per cent) and US $ 457 million (56.3 per cent) of British investment in Russian metallurgy and trade registered in the 1st quarter of 2003.
Although according to the results of the 1st quarter of this year Germany lost its leading positions, it still is the leader as concerns the structure of foreign investment accumulated by April 1, 2004. By the end of March of 2004, the amount of accumulated investment in the economy of the Russian Federation made US $ 57 billion, what was by 32.6 per cent above the indicators registered by the end of March of 2003.
Structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries.
Accumulated by 01.04.2004, US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2004, % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other USA 4807 3778 36 993 -9,2 -12,1 -12,2 3,Germany 10524 2308 361 7855 3,1 -9,2 -5,7 7,France 4903 299 0,1 4604 2,7 -9,7 0 3,UK 5071 1277 108 3686 -29,8 -54,8 0,9 -14,Cyprus 8447 4676 580 3191 4,5 -7,2 6,0 27,Accumulated by 01.04.2004, US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2004, % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other The Nether7568 6060 16 1492 111,7 116,7 220 92,lands Other coun15744 6119 327,9 9297 -11,8 -26,3 -5,2 0,tries Total 57064 24517 1429 31118 0,09 -6,2 0 5,Source: RF Goskomstat.
It is a favorable circumstance that this year the amount of foreign investment in the Russian economy still exceeds the amount of Russian investment abroad.
Foreign investment in Russia and Russia’s investment abroad in the 1st quarter of 1999 through Foreign investment in Russia and Russia’s investment abroad in the 1st quarter of 1999 through 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Invested in RF RF investment abroad Source: RF Goskomstat.
E. M. Ilyukhina The Real Sector: Factors and Trends In the 1st quarter of 2004, the amount of GDP increased by 7.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 and made Rub. 3598.9 billion in current prices terms. The high level of business activity was observed across practically all sectors of the economy. At the background of stable expansion of external demand, export oriented industries have retained their leading positions in the Russian economy. On the domestic market, the situation was determined by the expansion of both investment and consumer demand. In January through May of 2004, the increase in output of goods of final demand made 10.8 per cent, while the growth in output of industries of the investment complex and consumer complex increased by 13.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively.
The estimates of macroeconomic indicators calculated by IET for the end of 2004 demonstrate that in the case the current trends and scenario based changes in conditions of functioning of the economy the persistence of intensive dynamics of external and investment demand remain the major factors of growth. In the case the increase in investment in fixed assets and exports as expected is at 111.5 per cent and 118.1 per cent respectively, in 2004 GDP may grow by 6.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.
The Federal Service of State Statistics has for the first time evaluated GDP of this year. The amount of GDP increased by 7.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of and made Rub. 3598.9 billion in current prices terms. The official evaluation of GDP was by 0.6 p. p.
below the expected level because of the adjustment of calculations relating to the external trade.
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