Summing up the developments analyzed above, it should be noted that on the whole the external environment remained neutral as concerns its impact on the Russian stock market. On the one hand, the business situation on the oil market facilitates a growth in the stock market. At the same time, it should be noted that high oil prices not only favorably affect the profits of oil corporations, the share of which among blue chips is high, but also the overall macroeconomic situation in the country, since they increase the attractiveness of investment in the national economy.
The NK LUKoil In May, the amount of trade with the company’s securities at the London Stock Exchange reached its next historical maximum and made US $ 2.41 billion. The dynamics of the amount of trade demonstrates a constantly growing interest of investors in the company’s stocks. Thus, in 2003 the average monthly amount of trade made US $ 801 million, while in the first four months of 2004 it made US $ 1.52 billion.
On June 24, there was held the annual meeting of LUKoil shareholders, which approved the corporate report for year 2003, as well as the accounting documents with respect to the results of the finan30.04.20.05.09.06.29.06.19.07.08.08.28.08.17.09.07.10.27.10.16.11.06.12.26.12.15.01.04.02.24.02.15.03.04.04.24.04.14.05.03.06.23.06.cial year. Thus, according to the presented reports, in 2003 the company gained the record net profit amounting to US $ 3.701 billion as compared with US $ 1.843 billion registered in 2002.
The OAO Gazprom On June 22, the company presented the audited consolidated accounting documents of the Gazprom group for year 2003 prepared in accordance with the requirements set forth by the Russian legislation.
According to the results registered in 2003, the sales proceeds made RUR 844.56 billion, what was by 38 per cent above the respective indicator observed in 2002. The group’s net profits in 2003 made RUR 170.877 billion, what was by RUR 66.9 billion(64 per cent) above the figures registered a year ago.
At the meeting of the Board of Directors held in June, there was approved the amount of dividends to be paid according to the operating results in 2003. The total amount of dividend payments should make RUR 16.3 billion, or 11.5 per cent of the net profit of the company.
The OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel On June 2, the company’s Board of Directors approved the accounting documents for year prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standards (IAS). Thus, in 2003 the company’s proceeds from sales of metals increased by 68 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in 2002 and made US $ 5.19 million. The net profits made US $ 861 million, what was by 47 per cent above the level observed in 2002 (US $ 564 million).
The NK YUKOS On June 24, there was held a meeting of YUKOS shareholders, which elected the new composition of the company’s Board of Directors. Victor Gerashchenko was elected as the Chairman of the Board of Directors, while Steven Tidy replaced S. Kukes as the company’s CEO.
Table Dynamics f International Stock Market Indices Change within the Change since the Data as of June 25, 2004 Value month (%)9 beginning of the year (%) 559.97 -4.77% 2.RTS (Russia) 10371.84 2.59% -0.Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2025.47 2.50% 0.Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1134.43 1.75% 2.S&P 500 (USA) 4494.1 1.26% -0.FTSE 100 (UK) 4013.35 3.77% -0.DAX-30 (Germany) 3742.38 2.25% 4.CAC-40 (France) 5681.5 0.17% 1.Swiss Market (Switzerland) 11780.4 5.63% 8.Nikkei-225 (Japan) 20750 8.82% -7.Bovespa (Brazil) 10187.92 1.25% 25.IPC (Mexico) 1477.01 4.16% -0.IPSA (Chile) 1805.54 1.62% 0.Straits Times (Singapore) 779.03 -0.64% -5.Seoul Composite (South Korea) 17335.16 0.69% -9.ISE National-100 (Turkey) 431.174 1.17% -2.70% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index As compared to the level registered on May 26.
The Foreign Exchange Market.
Throughout the month, the situation on the domestic forex market remained rather stable. In early June, there was observed a certain depreciation of the national currency facilitated by an increase in demand for US dollars on the part of investors. These developments were in part caused by their wish to switch from securities to US dollars at the background of mounting political risks. However, later the US $ / Ruble exchange rate somewhat decreased. In part, this was caused by the fact that for maintenance of the necessary liquidity level banks had to sell the US currency. Thus, in the period from June 1 till June 26, the US $ / RUR exchange rate increased by about 0.026 Rubles to the level of RUR 29.02 per US $, what made circa 0.09 per cent.
The aggregate volume of trade in the US Dollar at the SELT in the period from June 1 till June made US $ 12.4 billion, what was significantly above the figures registered in the respective period of May (about US $ 8 billion). The average daily turnover made US $ 728.6 million over this period as compared with US $ 618.33 million observed in May. During the period under review, the highest volume of trade in the US Dollar, about US $ 1 billion, was observed on June 16; the lowest volume, US $ 396.5 million, was observed on June 22.
This June, the Ruble liquidity in the banking sector somewhat increased in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding month: in June, the average balances of correspondent accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia made RUR 170.6 billion as compared with RUR 153.billion registered in May of 2004.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2003-220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.30.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 29.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 28.On the world forex market, the dynamics of US dollar / Euro exchange rate were determined by two opposite trends. On the one hand, expectations of an increase in interest rate exerted downward pressure on Euro. On the other hand, the record high trade deficit in the USA influenced the exchange rate in the opposite direction. As a result, in the period from June 1 till June 26 the Euro exchange rate decreased by US $ 0.003 (-0.22 per cent) making US $ 1.126 per Euro.
The dynamics of the Euro / Ruble rate were mainly determined by the trends on the world market.
In the period from June 1 till June 24, the European currency appreciated by RUR 0.096 (0.27 per cent) from RUR 35.39 per Euro and made RUR 35.29 per Euro. The aggregate turnover of trade at the SELT amounted to Euro 115.3 million in the period from June 1 till June 24, while the average daily turnover was registered at Euro 6.78 million (Euro 115.6 million and Euro 8.9 million respectively in May). In this period, the highest trade volume of Euro was registered on June 24 at Euro 8.76 million, and the lowest, Euro 4.4 million, on June 21.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 22.214.171.124.1.1.1.Table Financial Markets Indicators Month February March April May June* Monthly inflation rate 1,0% 0,8% 1,0% 0,7% 0,8% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this 12,68% 10,03% 12,68% 8,73% 10% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues (%) 6,15% 6,78% 6,78% 7,04; 5,5% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 25,47 50,55 21,72 19,67 25,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 5th tranche 5,36% 4,99% 6,38% 6,52% 6,6% 6th tranche 3,88% 3,54% 4,31% 4,91% 5,0% 7th tranche 6,15% 5,93% 7,25% 7,31% 7,5% 8th tranche 4,56% 4,22% 4,58% 5,41% 5,5% Yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 2005 2,77% 2,40% 3,00% 3,35% 3,2% 2007 4,20% 3,90% 5,11% 5,07% 5,3% 2010 5,68% 5,51% 6,34% 6,36% 6,5% 2018 6,82% 6,56% 7,53% 7,81% 7,9% 2028 7,25% 7,07% 8,10% 8,22% 8,3% 2030 7,08% 6,88% 7,97% 8,00% 8,1% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank 1,76% 6,19% 17,54% 21,18% 12% overnight loans at the end of the month Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of 28,5156 28,4853 28,8834 28,9850 29,the month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 35,5076 34,8005 34,1431 35,6052 35,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ ex- 0,08% -0,11% 1,40% 0,35% 0,14% USD/EURO 01.06.01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.29.10.126.96.36.199.27.01.26.02.27.03.26.04.26.05.25.06.change rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro ex- 0,41% -1,99% -1,89% 4,28% -0,72% change rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the 433,12 613,91 830,27 419,36 RTS for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS-1 Index at the end of the month 670,14 755,43 634,61 581,47 Change in value of RTS-1 Index during the month 8,78% 12,73% -15,99% -8,37% 1,5% (%) * Estimate D. Polevoy Investment in the real sector of the economy In January through May of 2004, investment in fixed assets made Rub. 773.5 billion and were by 12.8 per cent above the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In the 1st quarter of 2004, the share of investment in fixed assets made 11.4 per cent of GDP and remained at about the level observed in the preceding year.
In the beginning of 2004, there was observed a number of significant shifts in the structure of investment across the sources of financing. There was registered a significant increase in the share of the banking sector in crediting of the investment complex. In the 1st quarter of 2004, the aggregate share of bank credits and borrowings of insurance and investment companies, industrial and trade enterprises made 18.9 per cent. It should be also noted that the share of foreign investment in the structure of sources of financing increased to 9.0 per cent.
This year, a specific feature of the Russian economy is a high level of business activity in construction. The progressive trend towards a growth in investment in fixed assets was positively affected by the gradual decrease in risks resulting from the stable improvement of the legislative and regulatory base. In January through May of 2004, investment in fixed assets made Rub. 773.5 billion and were by 12.8 per cent above the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
In the beginning of 2004, there was observed a number of significant shifts in the structure of investment across the sources of financing due to an increase of the share of borrowed resources by 4.p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003. The decline in profitability of alternative Ruble and forex denominated financial instruments created for private investors incentives to invest funds in the real sector of the economy. There is observed a significant increase in the share of the banking sector in crediting of the investment process, the specific weight of which in the structure of investment in fixed assets grew from 4.3 per cent observed in the 1st quarter of 2003 to 8.0 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2004. The aggregate share of bank credits and borrowings of other organizations (insurance and investment companies, industrial and trade enterprises, etc.) made 18.9 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2004. It should be also noted that the share of foreign investment in the structure of sources of financing increased to 9.0 per cent.
The increasing intensity of investment inflows in the real sector of the economy was observed at the background of significant shifts in the sectoral structure of investment. The share of investment in fixed assets of manufacturing industries declined from 3.0 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 and made 53.6 per cent. As concerns the sector of goods, the decline in investment was registered both in industry and construction. As concerns the sector of services, there was observed the most significant increase in investment: from 3.1 per cent in the 1st quarter of to 6.6 per cent in the respective period of 2004. The specific weight of transport and trade in the total amount of investment has increased by about 1 p. p., what permitted to overcome the trend towards deceleration of the rates of investment in these sectors formed over the last two years.
The international consulting company A. T. Kearney ranked Russia as the most attractive country for investment in retail trade. In the present situation where the lack of civilized trade objects is acute, all operating trade networks intensively develop and increase the number of their outlets. As concerns the structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy, since the beginning of the period of reforms it is characterized by a stable growth in the share of investment in the development of trade.
Judging by the results of the 1st quarter of 2004, the share of trade in the total amount of foreign investment received this year makes 31.3 per cent. The development of the retail market characterized by the introduction of foreign trade formats changes the competitive environment and the strategy of development used by domestic businesses in this sector of the economy and related industries.
TableStructure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing in the 1st quarter of 2002 through 2004, in % of the total 2002 2003 Investment in fixed assets, total 100,0 100,Including 1. Own funds 53,6 49,1 44,of which Profits 21,4 19,0 15,Amortization 27,3 25,6 25,2. Borrowings 46,4 50,9 55,of which Budget resources 20,4 17,3 14,including:
Federal budget 5,8 5,0 3,Budgets of RF subjects 12,2 11,6 10,Bank credits 3,8 4,3- 8,Borrowed resources 4,0 6,6 10,Extra-budgetary funds 1,9 1,0 0,Other 18,6 21,2 20,Foreign investment in the total amount of invest- 2,7 5,8 9,ment in fixed assets Source: Federal Service of State Statistics Table Structure of investment in fixed assets across sectors of economy in the 1st quarter of 2002 through 2004, in % of the total 2002 2003 Industry 47,9 50,2 48,Agriculture 3,0 2,4 2,Transport 15,8 15,1 16,Communications 3,6 3,1 6,Construction 3,2 3,8 2,Trade 1,6 1,8 2,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics In comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003, in industry there was observed a decline in the share of investment in fixed assets in fuel industry from 26.7 per cent to 25.8 per cent, including a decrease in investment in oil extracting industry from 17.1 per cent to 11.6 per cent and in natural gas industry from 6.8 per cent to 4.9 per cent.
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