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.) scenario 100000 scenario outcome I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q FIGURE Nominal exchange rate (Rub. / US $) scenario scenario outcome FIGURE Real effective exchange rate (base index) scenario scenario 70 outcome I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q FIGURE Export (US $ million) scenario scenario outcome FIGURE Import (US $ million) scenario scenario outcome I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q FIGURE Real rates of growth in the retail trade turnover 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% scenario scenario -15% outcome -20% FIGURE Rates of increase in the industrial production index 30.0% scenario 25.0% scenario outcome 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q II Q II Q II Q II Q II Q II Q II Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q IV Q IV Q IV Q IV Q IV Q IV Q IV Q FIGURE Percentage of unemployed in the economically active population scenario scenario outcome FIGURE Rates of growth in real cash household incomes 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% scenario -20.0% scenario -25.0% outcome -30.0% S. Drobyshevsky, S. Ponomarkenko Issues discussed at the meetings held by the Government of the Russian Federation held on June 10 and 17 of The most interesting documents reviewed in the course of the meetings held by the RF Government in June were the following: the report of the RF Finance Minister A. L. Kudrin On the results of the execution of the RF federal budget in the 1st quarter of 2004 presented at the RF Government meeting held on June 10, 2004, which reflected the macroeconomic environment of the execution of the federal budget. At the meeting of the RF Government held on June 17, 2004, there were presented the report of the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref and the RF Finance Minister A.

I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q I Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q III Q L. Kudrin On the key parameters of the forecast of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2005 through 2007 and key characteristics of the draft federal budget for through 2007, as well as the report made by the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref On the progress of development of the list of federal targeted programs entitled to financing from the federal budget in 2005, where the Minister pointed out the necessity to modernize federal targeted programs and enhance their efficiency. In the course of the report, there were also noted the steps already made in this direction.

The meeting of the RF Government held on June 10 of The report pointed out that in the 1st quarter of 2004, the economy of Russia was characterized by the forming favorable situation facilitating acceleration of the rates of economic growth.

According to the preliminary estimates, the amount of GDP in the 1st quarter of 2004 increased by per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2003, while the growth in output of base sectors of the economy in January through March of 2004 made 7.9 per cent as compared with the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year.

By the end of the 1st quarter of 2004, the rate of inflation (3.6 per cent) was significantly below the level registered last year (5.2 per cent).

In the 1st quarter of 2004, the revenues of the federal budget made Rub. 688.6 billion, or:

The preliminary evaluation of the amount of GDP in the 1st quarter of 2004 (further the amount of GDP) was exceeded by 19.7 per cent;

The amount of actual expenditures in comparison with the target figures for the 1st quarter of made 107.7 per cent.

In the 1st quarter of 2004, the expenditures borne by the federal budget made:

- Rub. 629.3 billion in terms of fulfilled financing of expenditures of the federal budget, or 94.1 per cent of the budget expenditure targets and 92.3 per cent of the adjusted consolidated budget revenues and expenditures for the 1st quarter of 2004;

- Rub. 553.9 billion in terms of the amounts of cash expenditures of the federal budget or 82.8 per cent of the budget expenditure targets and 81.2 per cent of the adjusted consolidated budget revenues and expenditures for the 1st quarter of 2004;

The surplus in terms of financing (excess of revenues over amounts of financing) made Rub. 59.billion (1.7 per cent of the amount of GDP), while in terms of cash execution of the federal budget is amounted to Rub. 134.7 billion (3.8 per cent of the amount of GDP).

The primary surplus of the federal budget (excess of revenues over amounts of financing not taking into account the amount of payments related to the servicing of the public debt) made Rub. 137.1 billion (3.9 per cent of the amount of GDP), while in terms of cash execution of the federal budget is amounted to Rub. 212.5 billion (6.1 per cent of the amount of GDP).

The meeting of the RF Government held on June 17 of At the meeting of the RF Government held on June 17, 2004, there were presented the report of the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref and the RF Finance Minister A. L.

Kudrin On the key parameters of the forecast of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2005 through 2007 and key characteristics of the draft federal budget for 2005 through 2007. The forecast has been developed proceeding from the evaluation of the economic development in 2003 and projected changes in the domestic and external conditions of development over this period.

In the report, there were pointed out the following issues.

There exists a significant probability that high oil prices will persist in 2004 (the average annualized oil price will make US $ 29 per barrel).

As concerns the further analysis, the second version of the forecast proceeds from the persistence of the favorable oil price dynamics in the band from US $ 24 to US $ 26 per barrel in 2005 through and a gradual moderate growth of oil prices in the next years. At the same time, the first version of the forecast envisages less intense dynamics of prices of Russian oil and a decrease in Urals prices to the level of US $ 22.5 per barrel in 2005, while the estimated average price of Urals oil in 2006 through 2008 should make US $ 20 per barrel.

The forecast of the volumes of oil exports on the whole corresponds to the Energy strategy of RF for a long term perspective. It is envisaged that the export of natural gas will increase up to 195 billion cubic meters in 2004 through 2007 in the framework of the first scenario and up to 250 billion cubic meters according to the second version.

Neither scenario envisages any restructuring of the debt as concerns the dynamics of payments relating to the external public debt. The state debt policy will be aimed at a gradual reduction of the amounts of external borrowings and simultaneous observance of the set schedule of payments relating to the external debt on the part of the Russian Federation.

Internal conditions of development include the creation of favorable environment for business activities, growth in the material well being of the population, expansion of domestic demand and capacity of the domestic market.

As concerns the demographic situation, the report points out that the trend towards a decrease in the average annual size of the resident population will cease in the medium term perspective. The size of the economically active population will increase from 71.6 million people in 2003 to 71.7 million in 2007.

According to the both versions of the forecast, inflation rate should decline to 4 per cent to 6 per cent in 2007 and will further decrease to 2 per cent to 4 per cent by 2010.

The dynamics of the Ruble exchange rate will significantly depend on the world prices of Russian energy resources and on the conditions envisaged by both forecasts respectively. The rates of the real appreciation of the national currency will gradually decline and make 3 per cent in 2010.

Macroeconomic indicators of the forecast were elaborated in two versions taking into account the impact of estimated conditions and factors.

In 2004, the contribution of external factors in the growth of GDP will diminish and make about 1.p. p., while the impact of domestic factors will remain on the level observed in 2004. The average rate of growth in GDP is estimated to be at the level of 6 per cent in 2005 through 2007.

In the medium term outlook, the dynamics of imports will be determined by the gradual Ruble appreciation, requirements of the technological re-equipment of the growing economy, and increasing disposable incomes of enterprises and households.

The rates of growth of the Russian economy in 2004 through 2007 will be primarily related to the high dynamics of domestic demand. It should be noted that the growth in investment will outpace the rate of increase in consumption.

Among the sources of investment, borrowings will play a more and more important role, the share of borrowings in the total amount of investment will increase from 55 per cent in 2002 to 59.6 per cent in 2007 in the framework of the second scenario and to 58.4 per cent in accordance with the first version of the forecast.

Growth in investment and consumer demand should ensure stable rates of growth in industry. In 2005 through 2007, the rates of increase in industrial output (in the framework of the second version) will make on the average from 5.3 per cent to 5.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in each preceding year.

The industries manufacturing products of final demand will develop at the highest rates and by 2007 should ensure about 62 per cent of the total growth.

In 2007, the real disposable household incomes will increase by 33 per cent to 38 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in 2003.

The rates of growth in consumption on the part of the public sector will remain below 2.5 per cent a year.

The formation of budgets being the components of the RF budget system is carried out in the conditions of ongoing reforms in the tax sphere, implementation of a number of fundamental structural reforms in the sector of government aimed at the attainment of strategic goals. In the medium term outlook, the budget policy pursued in the sphere of revenues is aimed at the reduction of the amount of financial resources redistributed via the budget system.

In the course of elaboration of the projections of the key parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for year 2005, there were taken into account the most important changes in the tax legislation (the reduction of the rate of SST due to the federal budget and the budgets of state extrabudgetary funds to 26 per cent, changes in the rates of the profit tax, an increase in the base rate of the tax on extraction of mineral resources with respect to oil, the introduction of the new differentiated scale of export duty on oil, a reduction in the rates of export customs duties on all goods, etc.).

The calculations concerning revenues of the federal budgets and consolidated budgets of the RF subjects also take into account the important changes in the standards of distributions of financial resources across the levels of the budget system.

Sources of domestic financing Revenues generated by privatization are one of the sources of financing of the deficit of the federal budget. In 2004 through 2006, all federal property not used for ensuring the execution of functions and objectives of the state will be offered for privatization.

Sources of external financing One of the methods of covering the risks relating to unfavorable developments on the market of domestic and external borrowings and maintenance of non-interest expenditures at the necessary levels is the use of the resources accumulated in the Stabilization fund for repayment of the external public debt exceeding the reserve amount of Rub. 500 billion.

Budget policy concerning the sphere of expenditures In the medium term perspective, the expenditures of the enlarged Government demonstrate a stable downward trend from 34.4 per cent of GDP in 2004 to 31.3 per cent of GDP in 2007, while noninterest expenditures will respectively decrease from 32.3 per cent of GDP to 30 per cent of GDP.

The projections of expenditures borne by the federal budget in 2005 and the next years proceed from the necessity to ensure the balance of the RF Pension Fund at the expense of the federal budgetary funds. In this connection, it is envisaged that a certain part of the Stabilization fund should be utilized for the purposes of increase in expenditures of the federal budget aimed at the covering of the deficit of the budget of the RF Pension Fund.

Yet another significant factor affecting the internal structure of expenditures is the implementation of key principles of the Concept of reforming of the budget process in the Russian Federation in through 2006, in the framework of which a special attention is paid to the switching from management of budget resources (expenditures) to performance management.

Besides, at the meeting of the RF Government held on June 17, 2004, there were presented the report of the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref On the progress of development of the list of federal targeted programs entitled to financing from the federal budget in 2005. In his report, the Minister pointed out the necessity to modernize federal targeted programs (hereinafter referred to as FTP) and enhance their efficiency.

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