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In June of 2003, the Government again increased customs duties on used foreign cars as applicable to individuals. In the resolution On equalization of customs duties paid by legal entities and individuals in the course of import of used cars in the RF customs territory, it is noted that the increase in customs duties has been carried out in order to equalize customs duties paid by legal entities and individuals in the course of import of used cars in the RF customs territory. At present individuals have significant privileges. Originally, import duties on foreign cars of this age group were introduced in 1999 as a temporary measure in order to help people after the crisis. However, at the moment this privilege became the basis of the whole business operating at the expense of unfair competition between individuals and legal entities favorable for the former.

After this document is enacted, cars manufactured 3 to 7 years ago with motors of working capacity below 1000 q. cm. shall be imported in the Russian customs territory subject to the duty imposed in the amount of Euro 0.85 per 1 q. cm. of the motor working capacity. As concerns cars of similar age, but with motors of working capacity more than 1000 and less than 1500 q. cm., the import duty shall be imposed at Euro 1 per q. cm., while the duty on cars where the working capacity of the motor is above 1800 and below 2300 q. cm.

will make Euro 1.75 per 1 q. cm. At the same time, the import duty on cars with motors of working capacity above 2300 q. cm. but below 3000 q. cm. shall be set in the amount of Euro 2 per 1 q. cm. of the motor working capacity, and the cars where motor capacity is above 3000 q. cm., the duty shall make 2.25 per 1 q.

cm.

The resolution shall be enacted in one month since the day of its official publication. Under the previous procedure of import of used cars in the RF, individuals paid the single rate Euro 0.85 per 1 q. cm. of the motor working capacity below 2500 q. cm., or Euro 1.4 per 1 q. cm. in the case the working capacity of the motor exceeded 2.5 thousand q. cm. For legal entities, the increased import duties on used cars were introduced yet in mid-2002.

It is necessary to note that over 5 months of 2003, individuals imported 127.600 cars worth US $ million in the Russian customs territory. The largest number of cars was imported to the Far East (57.thousand), North West (33.7 thousand), and Central (22.5 thousand) regions.

N. Volovik N. Leonova Forecasting certain macroeconomic indicators Below are presented the results of forecasting the real wages and salaries and real disposable cash household incomes, as well as monthly amounts of retail trade turnover, and GDP. For the estimates of these indicators, there were used the statistics from the collection Short Term Economic Indicators of the Russian Federation published by the RF Goskomstat. The estimated values were calculated basing on the time series models (models of the ARIMA class). For the evaluation of all three indicators there were chosen data pertaining to the time intervals from January of 1999 till April of 2003. Besides, there is analyzed the accuracy of forecasts of monthly tax revenues calculated previously.

Besides, there are presented the results of prognostication of the tax revenues of the consolidated (singling out profit tax, VAT, and the income tax) budget and revenues of the federal budget generated by the profit tax. At the same time, there is analyzed the accuracy of forecasts of time series of monthly tax revenues.

According to ARIMA model based forecasts (see Table 1), the average growth in real disposable cash incomes is estimated to be at the level of 9 per cent over the respective period. The indicator of growth in real wages and salaries, according to the obtained forecasts, shall be below 8 % as compared with the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

Table 1.

Forecast of living standards in June, July, and August of 2003.

Real wages and salaries Real disposable cash household incomes (1993.01=100) (1992.12=100) Actual data for the respective period of 92.82 97.June of 97.00 99.July of 97.78 97.August of ARIMA model based forecast 102.22 104.June of 105.60 106.July of 104.94 105.August of ARIMA model based forecast in per cent of the actual data obtained in the respective period of 110.13% 107.01% June of 108.86% 106.37% July of 107.33% 107.77% August of Forecast of the monthly amounts of retail trade turnover and GDP.

For forecasting the monthly GDP amounts in addition to the data provided by the RF Goskomstat there were also used the indicators of the RF budget estimated by the RF Finance Ministry.

According to the obtained results (see Table 2), the estimated monthly average real increment in the amounts of the retail trade turnover will not exceed 6 % in June, July, and August of 2003 as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The respective value for GDP will make about 5 %.

Table Forecast of the retail trade turnover and GDP in June, July, and August of 2003.

Amount of retail trade turnover Amount of GDP.

Actual values for the respective period of 2002 (Rub. billion) 297.8 870.June of 310.1 953.July of 324.3 1021.August of ARIMA model based forecast (Rub. billion) 361.71 1046.June of 373.10 1135.July of 386.33 1209.August of ARIMA model based forecast in per cent of the actual data obtained in the respective period of 121.46% 120.22% June of 120.32% 119.13% July of 119.13% 118.49% August of Forecast of tax revenues The average increase in the income tax revenues in June, July, and August of 2003 (see Table 3) in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year makes about 0.percentage points (p. p.) of GDP according to the ARIMA model and 0.3 p. p. of GDP according to the REM model. As concerns the value added tax, over the analyzed period on the average the respective revenues grew by 0.3 p. p. of GDP according to the REM model and by 0.1 p. p. of GDP according to the ARIMA model. The predicted average decline in the profit tax revenues of the consolidated budget in June through August of 2003 in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year will make about 0.5 p. p. of GDP in accordance with the REM model and 0.7 p. p. of GDP in accordance with the ARIMA model. Similarly, the revenues of the federal budget generated by the profit tax will on the average decline by 0.2 p. p. of GDP in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, as concerns the indicator of the aggregate revenues of the federal budget in June, July, and August of 2003, there is expected an increase in revenues by 0.8 p. p. of GDP according to the averaged forecasts made basing on the both applied models.

Table Forecast of tax revenues in January through June, January through July, and January through August of 2003 (in % of GDP) Amount of the Amount of the profit Amount of Amount of income Amount of the Amount of the aggregate tax tax revenues of the VAT revenues tax revenues of the aggregate tax profit tax revenues revenues of the consolidated budget consolidated revenues of the of the federal consolidated budget of RF budget of RF federal budget of budget of RF of RF RF Actual values of tax revenues in respective periods of 25.9% 4.7% 6.9% 3.1% 15.7% 1.7% January June of 26.2% 4.7% 7.0% 3.2% 15.8% 1.7% January July of 25.9% 4.6% 7.0% 3.2% 15.6% 1.7% January August of 25.5% 6.9% 3.3% 15.5% 1.6% 4.2% January December of REM model based forecast 26.8% 4.2% 7.3% 3.3% 16.4% 1.5% January June of 27.1% 4.3% 7.3% 3.4% 16.6% 1.5% January July of 26.8% 4.1% 7.3% 3.4% 16.3% 1.4% January August of ARIMA model based forecast 26.9% 3.9% 7.1% 3.4% 16.9% 1.5% January June of 27.1% 4.0% 7.1% 3.5% 16.6% 1.5% January July of 26.6% 3.9% 7.0% 3.4% 16.3% 1.4% January August of S. Ponomarenko, A. Yudin

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