In other words, finished stocks on hand will be used to rapidly execute new orders. A shortage of finished stocks was registered only in non-ferrous metallurgy.
In June, the estimates of changes in effective demand further improved by 5 balance points, on the whole in May and June the increase made 13 points. The hopes for increase in sales at the moment prevail across all industries with the exception (due to the seasonal factors) of power engineering.
In June, the plans of changes in output practically did not change. As concerns the industry at large, across almost all industries (with the exception of power engineering and non-ferrous metallurgy) there are still prevailing intentions to increase output. The correspondence of these plans with the estimates of changes in sales in the industry at large makes 73 per cent. The maximal value of this estimated indicator was registered in power engineering (83 per cent), while the minimal value was observed in metallurgy (60 per cent).
Among other responses there prevail more optimistic (as compared with demand) plans of changes in output.
The production plans not supported by demand are especially large in ferrous metallurgy, the forestry complex, and glass industry.
The forecasts of changes in profits (the monitoring of this indicator started 3 months ago) were positive for the second month running. Across industries, there started to prevail enterprises expecting a growth in their profits. In June, the most optimistic expectations were registered in non-ferrous metallurgy, the industry of construction materials, food industry, and mechanical engineering.
S. Tsukhlo Foreign investment in the Russia's economy In spite of the fact that the current year is characterized by increasing outflow of capital (+ 23.9 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year), in 2003, for the first time in the few preceding years, the amount of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy exceeded the amount of exported capital: in the 1st quarter of this year, there were registered US $ 3124 million worth of Russian investment abroad, what is by 28.7 per cent below the level observed in the 1st quarter of 2002 and is two times less than the amount of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy registered in January through March of 2003. At the same time, in the structure of foreign investment there continues a growth in investment in the form of credits (other investment).
In the 1st quarter of 2003, the amount of foreign direct investment made US $ 1034 million, what is by 24.7 per cent above the respective indicator observed in the 1st quarter of 2002. The growth in “other” investment made 81.6 per cent this year and exceeded the amount of direct investment 5 times. This disproportion resulted in a decline in the specific weight of direct investment in the aggregate amount of investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2003 to 16.5 per cent.
The results of the 1st quarter of 2003 indicate significant changes in the sectoral structure of foreign investment made in the Russia’s economy over this period. Construction and agriculture became leaders in terms of the rates of growth in investment, although the absolute values registered in these spheres are insignificant (construction accounted for investment in amount of US $ 30 million, agriculture – US $ million). The investment in these spheres of economy increased by 3.8 and 7.8 times respectively as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year. In January through March of 2003, investment in communications increased 2.6 times up to US $ 459 million.
The most significant increase in investment in the 1st quarter of 2003 was registered in the sphere of trade and public catering. The respective investment grew by US $ 1980 million (2.5 times) as compared with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of the preceding year and made US $ 3282 million. Therefore, the specific weight of trade and public catering exceeded 50 per cent of the aggregate amount of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in January through March of 2003.
At the background of a significant growth in the aggregate amount of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2003, investment in industry declined by 1.6 per cent, what resulted in a decrease in the share of industry in the aggregate foreign investment to 27.6 per cent.
The structure of foreign investment in the Russia's economy in the 1st quarter of 1999 through 2003 (in % of the total) 0,3% 2003 16,5% 83,2% 2,3% 2002 21,9% 75,8% 1,7% 2001 35,4% 63,0% 0,3% 2000 34,9% 64,8% 0,2% 1999 38,6% 61,2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Direct Portfolio Other Source: RF Goskomstat.
Отраслевая структура иностранных инвестиций в РФ в 1квартале соответствующего года.
0,9% 0,5% 3,9% Промышленность 6,7% 2003 27,6% 8,1% 52,4% Строительство 5,5% 6,2% 7,2% 2002 46,3% 34,4% Транспорт и связь 1,7% 3,9% 2001 43,5% 13,5% 26,3% 10,6% Торговля и обществ.питание 4,1% 1,8% 2000 37,4% 27,1% 14,8% Общ.ком.деят-ь по обесп.
Table Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2001 through Changes in comparison with the US $ mil. % of the total preceding year, % 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 Industry, total, including: 1182 1755 1727 29,3% 48,5% - 1,6% 100% 100% 100% Fuel industry 147 589 456 30,1% 300,7% -22,6% 12,4% 33,6% 26,4% Metallurgy 369 425 691 117,1% 15,2% 62,6% 31,2% 24,2% 40,0% Mechanical engineering and metal 108 111 69 27,1% 2,8% -37,8% 9,1% 6,3% 4,0% working Food industry 367 375 242 -8,3% 2,2% -35,5% 31,0% 21,4% 14,0% Forestry, wood working, pulp and 45 62 62 -18,2% 37,8% 0,0% 3,8% 3,5% 3,6% paper industry Other industries 146 193 207 60,4% 32,2% 7,3% 12,4% 11,0% 12,0% Source: RF Goskomstat The structure of foreign investments in industry, as well as the respective structure of their aggregate amount is characterized by the prevalence of “other” investment (72.6 per cent). However, in contradistinction to the structure of the total amount of foreign investment, where there was registered a decline in the share of foreign direct investment, the share of the latter in the structure of foreign investment in industry increased from 23.2 per cent to 26.6 per cent, since at the background of declining investment in industry, foreign direct investment in industry increased by 13 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2003 as compared with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2002. At the same time, the amount of “other” investment in industry declined by 6.5 per cent over the period under observation and made US $ 1253 million.
As concerns the regional distribution of foreign investment, Germany increased its investment 2.2 times (up to US $ 272 million) in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2002, while investment from Switzerland grew 2.5 times (up to US $ 262 million), and investment from the United Kingdom increased 2.1 times (up to US $ 227 million).
Geographical structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s industry in the 1st quarter of Industry, total 14,5% 13,6% 14,5% 19,8% 37,6% Fuel industry 60,9% 39,1% 28,5% Metallurgy 33,3% 15,2% 23,0% Mechanical engineering 14,0% 19,7% 20,8% 45,5% 15,2% Food industry 16,7% 13,1% 8,0% 7,3% 6,9%6,1% 26,7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Germany Switzerland UK USA France the Netherlands Japan Other countries Source: RF Goskomstat.
As in 2002, in the 1st quarter of 2003 the major countries investing in the Russia’s economy were Germany, Cyprus, USA, UK, France, and the Netherlands, whose share made 73.9 per cent of the aggregate amount of foreign investment accumulated by April 1, 2003 (74 per cent by April 1, 2002, 78.1 per cent by April 1, 2001).
Table Foreign investment in the Russia’s economy as broken down by major investing countries in the 1st quarter of 2003.
Change to the respective period of 2002, in US $ million.
% Accumulated Accumulated Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow by April 1 by April Germany 2 720 306 10 560 280,4% - 37,6% 67,3% Cyprus 625 739 5 513 - 10,6% - 49,1% 21,1% USA 174 398 5 298 - 47,3% - 38,7% -0,2% UK 812 868 4 998 139,5% 76,4% 36,6% France 157 396 2 794 - 51,8% 37,5% - 15,8% The Netherlands 189 387 2 652 - 43,9% - 29,1% 13,7% Japan 113 41 1 060 68,7% - 65,8% 63,8% Switzerland 327 431 1 027 97,0% 155,0% 33,9% Other countries 1 151 2 599 9 129 42,1% 237,1% 21,1% Source: RF Goskomstat.
As in the 1st quarter of 2002, this year the major amount of investment from Germany (about 95 per cent) were “other” foreign investment, 73 per cent of this investment was made in the sphere of trade and public catering. As concerns the structure of accumulated investment from Germany, “other” foreign investment also prevail making 76 per cent. The share of foreign direct investment makes only 20.4 per cent.
This year, investment from Cyprus and the United Kingdom are also primarily credits and loans (“other” investments account for 80 per cent and 85 per cent of the total investment from these countries made in the 1st quarter of 2003). At the same time, the share of “other” investment from Cyprus and the United Kingdom made only 27 per cent and 55 per cent of their respective investments in the Russia’s economy accumulated by April 1, 2003. British investors were primarily interested in investment to such sectors of the Russia’s economy as trade and public catering (US $ 457 million, or 56.3 per cent of the total investment from the United Kingdom made in January through March of 2002) and industry (US $ 227 million, or 28 per cent).
About 65 per cent of investment from Cyprus (US $ 406 million) were also made in the sphere of trade and public catering.
Switzerland, which almost doubled its investment in the Russia’s economy in 2003, made 80 per cent of its investment (US $ 262 million) in industry, 90.5 per cent of this amount were “other” investment.
As concerns the structure of investment from the Netherlands made in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2003, more than 75 per cent of these investments were direct investments. At the same time, this year Dutch businesspersons preferred to invest in industry (US $ 119 million, or 63 per cent of investment from the Netherlands made in the 1st quarter of 2003), communications (US $ 20 million, or 10.6 per cent), and construction (US $ 15 million, or 7.9 per cent).
One of the largest international ranking agencies Fitch increased the long term forex and domesic currency ranking of the RF by two grades at once (up to BB+) in mid-May, what is an evidence that foreign investors trust Russia more and what will facilitate a further enhancement of investment activity in Russia.
E. Ilykhina Regions: attracting foreign investment As concerns the regional structure of attracted foreign investment (see Table 1), in the 1st quarter there sharply increased the share of Moscow – two times in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2002 and 1.5 times as compared with the figures registered in 2002 on the whole. At the same time, although the share of Moscow in foreign direct investment increased, this growth was rather insignificant (by 3.5 to 4 percentage points). Moscow is not the only example of the instability of foreign investment inflow, which is a general trend perceptible for all Russia’s regions (this concerns both foreign investment at large and foreign direct investment). It shall be noted that in the 1st quarter of 2003 not only traditionally less attractive underdeveloped national autonomies, but also the Volgograd, Kirov, Ulyanovsk, Kurgan, Chita, Kamchatka oblasts and Chuvash Republic failed to attract foreign direct investment.
Table Regions leading in terms of absolute amounts of attracted foreign investment in the 1st quarter of 2003 shares of regions in the attracted foreign investment) Foreign investment, total Foreign direct investment RF subjects Share, % RF subjects Share, % RF 100 RF City of Moscow 64,07 City of Moscow 41,Sverdlovsk oblast 5,47 Sakhalin oblast 22,Chelyabinsk oblast 5,36 Moscow oblast 11,Sakhalin oblast 3,82 Nenets AO 3,Moscow oblast 3,24 Yamal Nenets AO 2,Omsk oblast 2,54 Leningrad oblast 2,City of St. Petersburg 2,05 Rep. of Tatarstan 2,Khanty Mansi AO 1,85 City of St. Petersburg 1,Nenets AO 1,44 Astrakhan oblast 1,Samara oblast 1,09 Tomsk oblast 1,Sverdlovsk oblast 1,Note: the table includes regions whose share in attraction of foreign investment makes over 1 per cent.
Table Regions leading in terms of per capita amounts of foreign investment in the 1st quarter of Foreign investment, total Foreign direct investment RF subjects US $ per capita RF subjects US $ per capita Nenets AO 2000 Nenets AO City of Moscow 470 Sakhalin oblast Sakhalin oblast 410 Yamal Nenets AO Chelyabinsk oblast 93 City of Moscow Khanty Mansi AO 81 Moscow oblast Sverdlovsk oblast 75 Astrakhan oblast Omsk oblast 75 Tomsk oblast Kamchatka oblast 74 Leningrad oblast Yamal Nenets AO 58 Novgorod oblast RF average 44 Rep. of Mordovia Leningrad oblast 37 RF average Moscow oblast 32 Kostroma oblast City of St. Petersburg 28 Rep. of Tatarstan Rep. of Sakha (Yakutia) Samara oblast Novgorod oblast Note: the table includes the regions where the amounts of per capita foreign investment exceed US $ 20 and per capita foreign direct investment exceed US $ 5.
A rather interesting facts are the significant decline in the share of City of St. Petersburg both in the total amount of foreign investment, and foreign direct investment (as compared with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2002 and in 2002 on the whole), it means that the interest to this city in relation to its anniversary has not had an effect on the inflow of foreign investment as yet. The shares of the Krasnodar krai and Republic of Yakutia (as well as the share of the Omsk oblast in the total amount of foreign investment) shrunk even more perceptibly. An interesting situation is observed in the Republic of Tatarstan – the share of this region in the total amount of foreign investment sharply diminished, however, in terms of its share in foreign direct investment the Republic appears among the leaders (previously, a specific feature of Tatarstan was the lesser share of foreign direct investment in the total amount of foreign investment in this region).
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