It is to be noted that among the factors which contributed to growth of the US stock market indices were publications of a number of statistical reports which pointed to the fact that the economic situation was gradually improving. In particular, the consumer price index remained unchanged, the number of building permits and the number of building contracts grew much faster than had been forecasted and the industrial output increased for the first time in months. Another factor, which had an important role to play in the dynamics of stock market indices was reduction by the US Federal Reserve of the interest rate. On June 25, the US interest rate was reduced to one percent per annum (that is, by 0.25 interest points).
Generally speaking, the dynamics of stock markets in Europe echoed the situation on the US market; the growth of indices was largely explained by expected improvement of the macroeconomic situation in the USA and, consequently, growth in exports from Europe. In addition to that, on June 5 by resolution of the European Central Bank the prime interest rate was reduced from 2.5 percent to 2 percent. However, that measure did not have much effect on the dynamics of share prices on European trade floors, since the above information had already influenced the current prices. According to a Merril Lynch survey, many managers of investment funds believe that fast growth in share prices (which has been observed since mid-March) is to come to an end unless there is a positive change in the EC countries’ economies.
Corporate news The OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel For the fist time since its foundation, the Company has had the annual 2002 financial report published in conformity with the IAS. According to the above report, the Company’s net profit amounted to 315 mil USD, which figure is much higher than had been forecasted (219 mil USD). In absolute terms, this year’s dividends amount to 0.68 USD per share, which is nearly equivalent to the last year’s figure.
Another favorable factor for the Company has been the GMK Norilsk Nickel’s decision to purchase percent of stocks of the Stillwater Company (USA’s largest producer of palladium), which decision has been approved by shareholders of Stillwater and the US Federal Trade Commission. This will probably permit Norilsk Nickel to sell palladium directly to US-based autoworks under long-term contracts. In addition to the above, the Company has officially announced its decision to participate in a tender (sanctioned by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation) for development of Sukhoi Log, one of Russia’s largest gold deposits.
The OAO Mosenergo The Company had had the 2002 financial results (prepared in conformity with the IAS) published, thus showing the net loss of 72 mil USD and operation costs in the amount of 1.76 billion USD. The Company’s operation profit amounted to 9.4 billion USD. In 2002, Mosenergo’ revenues grew by 20.6 percent; that can mostly be explained by a 17.6 percent increase in the average power rates and also a certain increase in sale of power to consumers (which was made possible by additional procurement of power at the FORAM. The Company’s own rate of production fell by 0.2 percent. The Company’s rate of profitability from the main line of business amounted to 0.2 percent, as against 3.0 percent in 2001.
The NK LUKoil On June 6, the Company made public its 2002 business results. Despite the growth in revenues, the Company’s net profit fell by 5.6 percent and amounted to 1,843 billion USD. The above figure was smaller than forecasted by the NK LUKoil’ management in autumn 2002 (at that time, it was believed that the Company’s net profit would exceed two billion USD). Despite reduction in such expenditures as were under the management’s direct control, growth in the Company’s tax payments and transportation costs resulted in reduction in net profit. In particular, growth in exports of oil products with the use of alternative means of transportation, particularly, rail carriage and shipment was observed. Taking into account the fact that the ratio between expenses on the above means of transportation and expenses on pipeline transportation is three to one, growth in exports resulted in considerable a 54 percent increase in transportation costs (or a percent increase per barrel).
The OAO NK YUKOS The annual meeting of shareholder approved the 2002 dividends in the amount of 9.89 rubles per common share, including the sum of paid out intermediary dividends (5.70 rubles per share). The remaining sum of the dividends (4.19 rubles per share) will be paid until August 31, 2003 to all shareholders registered in the register of shareholders as of May 3, 2003. The meeting of shareholders also elected a new Board of Directors; Mr. S. Kukes, president of the OAO THK was elected its chairman.
The OAO Rostelekom In June, the Company made public its 2002 financial statements (in accordance with the IAS). The above statements showed that not only the Company’s revenues did not grow at all, but also profits fell sharply by 69 percent to 37.2 billion USD. One of the main factors behind that reduction in profits was the Company’s non-monetary expenditures, such as reserves against debts (24.9 mil USD), additional depreciation (24.9 mil USD) and an exchange loss (29.5 mil USD). The annual meeting of shareholders approved the decision to pay out dividends for the year 2002 in the amount of 0.54 rubles per common share and 1.27 rubles per preferred share. It is to be noted that the State Duma of the Russian Federation passed in the third reading the law on communications, which law practically seals monopoly of the OAO Rostelekom on the non-mobile communications market, so it is sure to remain in the next few years.
The OAO Transneft Transneft and the Savings Bank of Russia signed an agreement of intent, which provides for extension by the latter of loans (in the amount of up to 900 mil USD) for financing of investment projects of Transneft. In June, under the above agreement, the Savings Bank of Russia will extend to Transneft a 10 billion ruble loan for the term of five years for financing of the project of expansion of the Baltic pipeline system.
The OAO Surgutneftegaz On Tuesday, June 10, it became known that shareholders of the OAO NK Surgutneftegaz passed a resolution at the extraordinary meeting of shareholders to transform the OAO NK Surgutneftegaz into the OOO NK Surgutneftegaz.
The OAO Gasprom Gasprom published its 2002 consolidated audited statements, which were prepared in accordance with the Russian accounting standards. In 2002, the Company’s revenues amounted to 602.1 billion rubles, which is a 26.9 percent increase on the 2001 figure. The Company’s net profit fell by 25.6 percent and amounted to 53.5 billion USD.
Table Dynamics f International Stock Market Indices Change within the Change since the Data as of June 20, 2003 Value month (%) beginning of the year (%) RTS (Russia) 487.89 7.07% 35.23% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 9200.75 3.40% 6.89% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1644.72 3.39% 18.77% S&P 500 (USA) 995.69 2.97% 9.53% FTSE 100 (UK) 4160.1 0.75% 3.76% DAX-30 (Germany) 3238.98 5.69% 4.31% CAC-40 (France) 3190.11 4.65% -0.15% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 4936.8 3.83% 0.76% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 9120.39 6.71% 4.67% Bovespa (Brazil) 13131 -0.74% 13.17% IPC (Mexico) 7080.69 5.33% 13.74% IPSA (Chile) 1245.38 0.27% 20.89% Straits Times (Singapore) 1519.16 10.03% 13.71% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 686.22 5.78% 8.04% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 10783.91 -6.87% 1.75% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index 336.277 5.26% 15.08% The Foreign Exchange Market Throughout June, the USD continued to depreciate against the RUR, which depreciation was caused by low investment attraction of the USD, increase in the investment influx in Russia and unstable exchange rate of the USD on the international market. In the June 4 - 30 period, the USD exchange rate fell by 39 kopecks (-1.27 percent) from 30.74 rubles to 30.35 rubles for a USD. The total USD trading volume at the Electronic Batch Trade Session (EBTS) amounted to 7.55 billion USD. In the June 2-21 period, the maximum high USD trading volumes was observed on June 18 (941 mil USD).
Ruble liquidity in the banking sector in general remained the same as in May. In the June 1-21 period, correspondent account balances of commercial banks did not fall below 138 billion rubles. Within the period under review, the MIACR rate amounted to about 1.36 percent per annum.
CHART 7. Dynamics of the official exchange rate of the USD to RUR and EURO Динамика официального обменного курса рубля к доллару США и евро 37.36.Официальный курс рубля к доллару США 35.Официальный курс рубля к евро 126.96.36.199.30.29.28.In the May 31 – June 23 period, the USD exchange rate on the international market went down by two cents (-0.017 percent) to 1.158 USD/EURO. The dynamics of the exchange rate were much affected by expectations of further reduction by the US Federal Reserve of the interest rate.
In the June 4-28 period, the EURO/RUR exchange rate fell by 1.19 rubles (3.94 percent) from 35.RUR/EURO to 34.71 RUR/EURO. In the June 2-21 period, the total EURO trading volume at the EBTS amounted to 137.23 mil EURO. In the above period, the maximum EURO trading volume was observed on June 19 (14.07 mil EURO), while the minimum volume, on June 21 (0.2 mil EURO).
рублей 02.07.01.08.31.08.30.09.188.8.131.52.29.12.28.01.27.02.29.03.28.04.28.05.27.06.CHART 8. Dynamics of the EURO/USD exchange rate on international foreign exchange markets Динамика курса евро к доллару на мировых валютных рынках 184.108.40.206.1.0.0.Table 2.
Financial Markets Indicators Month February March April May June* Monthly inflation 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% Inflation rate for the year estimated on the basis of 20.98% 14.02% 12.68% 10.03% 6.2% inflation rate in the month Rate of refinancing of the Central Bank of Russia 18% 18% 18% 18% 16% Average yield to maturity on all issues of OFZ 9.66% 8.85% 8.03% 6.44% securities (% per annum) Volume of the GKO-OFZ securities market per 34.53 33.45 20.83 20.month (billion rubles.) Yield to maturity of OFZ securities as of the end of the month (% per annum):
5 tranche 6.31% 6.23% 5.57% 4.78% 4.9% 6 tranche 5.19% 5.19% 4.18% 3.87% 3.7% 7 tranche 6.43% 6.45% 6.19% 5.40% 5.5% 8 tranche 5.32% 5.25% 4.78% 4.17% 4.0% Yield to maturity of eurobonds as of the end of the month (% per annum):
2003 2.40% 2.72% 1.05% 2.13% – 2005 3.62% 3.68% 3.22% 2.74% 2.6% 2007 5.16% 5.09% 4.68% 3.93% 3.8% 2010 6.38% 6.27% 5.85% 5.27% 5.3% 2018 7.53% 7.33% 7.20% 6.43% 6.2% 2028 8.22% 8.08% 7.78% 6.88% 6.7% 2030 8.51% 8.41% 7.94% 6.99% 6.9% Inter-Bank Lending-MIACR rate (% per annum as 2.16% 3.71% 3.46% 1.81% 1.7% of the end of the month) on overnight loans Official USD exchange rate as of the end of the 31.5762 31.3805 31.1000 30.7090 30.month (RUR/USD) долларов/евро 01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.220.127.116.11.28.12.27.01.26.02.28.03.27.04.27.05.Month February March April May June* Official EURO exchange rate as of the end of the 34.0549 33.5865 34.1447 36.4669 34.month (RUR/EURO) Gain of the official USD exchange rate in the -0.77% -0.62% -0.89% -1.26% -1.17% month (%) Gain of the official EURO exchange rate in the -1.13% -1.38% 1.66% 6.80% -4.81% month (%) Stock market volume in RTS in the month (mil 276.19 304.35 601.40 497.74 USD):
Value of the RTS-1 Index as of the end of the 383.23 363.68 429.16 467.1 503.month Change in the RTS-1 Index in the month (%) 10.24% -5.10% 18.00% 8.84% 7.79% * Estimation D. Polevoi Enterprises and organizations: the state of payments In the 1st quarter of 2003, the trends towards a decline in payment arrears observed in the economy did not underwent significant changes. The decline in outstanding and accumulated creditor indebtedness continued.
In March of 2003, the accumulated amount of outstanding indebtedness of organizations and enterprises in the economy made about 12 per cent of GDP (in 1998, in the period of the acute crisis, this indicator made 46 per cent (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. The level of accumulated payment arrears (as the share of GDP): dynamics in 1993 through 2002.
Кредиторская задолженность предприятий и организаций, в % ВВП* Просроченная кредиторская задолженность, в % ВВП - то же по 4-м отраслям 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2/2003** Creditor indebtedness of enterprises and organizations, in % of GDP Outstanding creditor indebtedness, in % of GDP The same for four sectors * - prior to (including) 1997 for four sectors.
** - preliminary data.
Source: RF Goskomstat, calculations of the authors.
Note: the aggregate outstanding indebtedness of enterprises and organizations includes outstanding creditor indebtedness and the outstanding debts to the banking system. The creditor indebtedness is calculated as the sum of debts to suppliers, budgets of all levels, and extra-budgetary funds, indebtedness relating to wages and salaries, and debts to other creditors. Prior to 1998, the RF Goskomstat published payment arrears statistics for four sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, transport, construction). Since 1998, the aggregate indebtedness in the economy has been calculated across all sectors of the economy.
Figure 2. Dynamics of outstanding creditor and debtor indebtedness across all sectors of the economy and branches of industry, agriculture, construction, and transport (4 sectors) in current prices.
Кредиторская задолженность (левая ось) Просроченная кредиторская задолженность всех отраслей Просроченная кредиторская задолженность 4-х отраслей Просроченная дебиторская задолженность всех отраслей Просроченная дебиторская задолженность 4-х отраслей 5 000 2 4 500 1 4 000 1 3 500 1 3 000 1 2 500 1 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Indebtedness (Rub. billion) Outstanding indebtedness (Rub. billion) Creditor indebtedness (left axis) Outstanding creditor indebtedness of all sectors Outstanding creditor indebtedness of four sectors Outstanding debtor indebtedness of all sectors Outstanding debtor indebtedness of four sectors Source: RF Goskomstat, calculations of the authors.
The share of outstanding indebtedness in the total indebtedness continues to decline and makes less than 30 per cent (the maximum – 55 per cent was observed in 1998, see Fig. 3).
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