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IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`02 XI`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03III`03IV03 VRevenues Corporate profit tax 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,6% 1,6% 1,2% 1,1% 1,4% 1,5% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 3,1% 3,1% 3,1% 2,4% 2,7% 2,8% 2,9% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% 9,0% 8,9% 8,9% 8,9% 11,2% 10,1%9,9% 9,6% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% 8,5% 7,4% 7,2% 7,2% Total- taxes and charges 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% 2,0% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,4% Non- tax revenues 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 3,0% 3,4% 3,4% 3,4% 3,5% Revenues, total 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,1% 0,5% 1,7% 2,0% 2,2% Expenditure 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% 18,5% 18,6% 18,5% 18,6% 18,8% 19,0% 19,4%19,6% Public administration 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 17,5% 8,5% 1,3% 1,2% National defense 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% 20,0% 20,2% 20,1% 20,1% 20,8% 20,6% 21,3% 20,9%21,0% International activities Judicial power 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% 2,4% 2,5% 2,7% 1,5% 2,1% 2,6% 2,7% Fundamental research 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% -0,3% 0,0% 0,2% 0,2% Services provided for the national economy 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% Social services 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,7% 1,1% 1,4% 1,7% 1,7% Servicing of public debt 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 1,2% 1,3% 1,5% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% Expenditure, total 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 4,9% 5,5% 5,6% 5,6% 1,5% 1,8% 2,0% 2,3% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% 2,0% 2,0% 1,7% 2,9% 3,0% 2,3% 2,1% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,8% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% 6,6% 7,1% 7,0% 7,0% Budget deficit (-) 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% 16,9% 17,8% 18,0% 18,7% 12,7% 16,4% 17,9% 17,7%17,7% Domestic financing 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,1% 2,4% 2,1% 1,4% 8,1% 4,2% 3,2% 3,3% 3,4% Other taxes, duties and payments -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% -1,2% -0,5% -0,2% 0,6% -6,6% -1,7%-1,0%-1,0%-0,2% Total- taxes and charges -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -2,0% -1,4% -2,5%-2,2%-2,3%-3,2% Non- tax revenues -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,4% -2,1% -1,4% -8,1% -4,2%-3,2%-3,3%-3,4% * % ; ** As compared with the figures registered in January through April of 2002, the budget revenues decreased by 0.2 p. p. of GDP in January through April of 2003, while expenditures increased by 0.8 p. p. and budget surplus respectively decreased by 0.9 p. p. At the same time, without SST the budgetary revenues increased by 0.8 p. p. of GDP and made 18.1 % of GDP.

VAT accounted for the major share of federal tax revenues 34.2 % of the total tax revenues what is by about 2 p.p. above the level observed in the respective period of 2002.

According to preliminary estimates, the cash execution of federal budget revenues made 21.3 % of GDP in January through May of 2003, what is by 0.4 p. p below the respective level observed in January through Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

May of 2002. At the same time the cash execution of expenditures made 17.9 % of GDP (17.1 % of GDP in 2002); therefore, the surplus made 3.4 % of GDP (3.8 % of GDP in 2002).

According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, in terms of fulfilled funding2 the expenditures of the federal budget in January through May of 2003 made 19.9 % of GDP (see Table 2), while on June 1 of 2002 this indicator was at 19.4 % of GDP. As a result, the surplus of the federal budget in terms of fulfilled funding in the first four months of 2003 has also decreased by 0.1 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2002 and made 1.3 % of GDP.

Table 2.

The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding).

VIII`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03 III`03 IVTotal 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% 20,1% 21,4% 21,2% 20,9% 0% 21,3% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 0,6% 6% 0,6% National defense 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 3,2% 3,3% 2% 3,1% International activities 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% -0,4% 0,1% 0,1% 3% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% 1,7% 1,9% 2,3% 2,3% 2% 2,2% activities Fundamental research 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,5% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 9% 1,0% national economy Social services 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% 5,7% 2,6% 2,8% 2,7% 9% 2,7% Servicing of public debt 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% 2,0% 1,7% 3,0% 3,0% 3% 2,1% Other expenditure 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,8% 7,0% 7,8% 7,3% 3% 7,4% Total expenditure 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% 18,7% 16,9% 21,1% 20,8% 2% 19,9% (+) / (-) 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% 1,4% 4,5% 0,1% 0,1% 0,8% 1,3% According to the estimates of the Revenue Ministry, in April of 2003 tax revenues of the federal budget made Rb. 103.1 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 234.3 % of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 239.6 % in 2002 and 252.2 % in (see Table 3).

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% 2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV V 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280,4% 234,3% * .

2 The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Figure 1.

Real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% Profit tax VAT 60% 50% 40% The dynamics of real arrears relating to major debts since June of 1999 is presented in Fig. 1. The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made for VAT Rb. 238.5 billion as on June 1, 2003, increasing by almost Rub. 2.5 billion as compared with the figures registered in the preceding month, while the arrears of the profit tax made Rb. 30.6 billion. On the whole, the dynamics observed over the last 2 years and the latest data still demonstrate a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears as concerns not only the profit tax, but VAT as well.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar ' Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% I II III IV Taxes 27,4% 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% Revenues 33,4% 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% Expenditures 28,8% 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% Deficit 4,5% 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% * The revenues of the consolidated budget in April of 2003 made 33.4 % of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 27.4 % of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget increased by 0.4 p.

p. in comparison with the figures registered in April of 2002 and made 28.8 % of GDP. The surplus of the consolidated budget in March of 2003 made 4.5 % of GDP, what is below the level observed in April of 2002 (5.3 % of GDP).

S. Batkibekov The Monetary Policy In May 2003, the inflation rate kept declining. In the first five months of 2003, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 7.1 percent. Thanks to the active policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in particular, expansion of operations with government securities on reverse REPO terms, the volume of the monetary base kept reducing early in June, despite growth in gold and foreign exchange reserves. The rate of refinancing set by the Central Bank of Russia was reduced to 16 percent per annum.

Chart 1. Growth rates of the CPI in the 2002-2003 period (%, per month) 2002-2003 . (% ) 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% In May, the inflation rate in Russia amounted to 0.8 percent (see Chart 1). According to data furnished by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, the most significant price rise was observed in fees charged for paid services to individuals (+ 1.5 percent) and prices of foods (+0.7 percent). In January-May 2003, the inflation rate was a mere 7.1 percent, as against 8.4 percent in the corresponding period in 2002.

The reference consumer price index, which excludes short-term erratic price fluctuations, which are due to the effects of individual factors of an administrative, event-driven and seasonal nature, amounted in May to 100.6 percent (104.0 percent since the beginning of the year).

According to our forecasts, in June the rate of growth in consumer prices went down to 0.5 percent 0.percent. So, in the first six months of 2003 the inflation rate in the Russian Federation did not exceed 7.5 7.6 percent. It is to be remembered that according to the forecast of the Government of the Russian Federation this year CPI growth will be no more than 12 percent.

In May 2003, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by 8 percent on the April figure (+ 4.8 billion USD) (see Chart 2) and amounted to 64.7 billion USD as of June 1, 2003. So, gold and foreign exchange reserves grew by 35.4 percent since the beginning of the year. However, in the first two weeks of June gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia went down by 1.7 percent (- 1.1 billion USD).

In May, the volume of the monetary base (in its narrow definition) increased from 988.0 billion rubles to 1,049.5 billion rubles (+ 6.1 percent) (see Chart 2). In the first two weeks of June, despite reduction of gold and foreign exchange reserves the volume of monetary base increased by four percent. So, in the first five months of 2003 the monetary base (in its narrow definition) grew by 13.8 percent. In January-May 2003, the M2 money supply increased by 14.8 percent, as against 5.2 percent in the similar period in 2002 (it is to be noted that in 2002 increase in the M2 money supply amounted to 32.3 percent).

In May, the volume of reserve funds as such increased by 8.5 percent, from 1,421.8 billion rubles to 1,542.6 billion rubles. In the first five months of 2003, that index rose by 22.18 percent (it amounted to 1,262.6 billion rubles as of the beginning of the year).

Chart 2. Dynamics of the monetary base proper and gold and foreign exchange reserves in the second half of 2002 and in 2003.

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