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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES June 2003 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2003 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru On the progress of reforms in May and June of 2003.................................................................................... 3 The State of the Federal Budget.................................................................................................................... 5 The Monetary Policy..................................................................................................................................... 8 Financial Markets........................................................................................................................................ 10 Enterprises and organizations: the state of payments.................................................................................. 19 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends........................................................................................................... 26 IET Business Survey: Industry.................................................................................................................... 28 Foreign investment in the Russia's economy............................................................................................... 30 Regions: attracting foreign investment........................................................................................................ 33 Foreign Trade............................................................................................................................................... 36 Forecasting certain macroeconomic indicators............................................................................................ 39 On the progress of reforms in May and June of On June 6, the Ministry of Economic Development submitted to the Government the elaborated draft of the new medium term program of social and economic development for years 2003 through 2005. Although the new draft takes into account the stipulations of the Presidential Address, it does not mention anything concerning the doubling of GDP.

Nevertheless, this omission may be justified, since 2010 is far beyond the time horizon of the program. At the same time, the new section Terms of the implementation of the reform, which is the major novation in comparison with the preceding version, was added to the draft program. The new section sets forth extremely short terms of implementation of a number of key reforms (including the administrative, tax and budgetary, and other reforms), what, according to the authors of the program, is a necessary prerequisite for acceleration of the rates of economic growth. In June, this draft program will most probably be approved by a resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation, however, it is difficult to judge what the final version of the text would be, since, for instance, the preceding version of the draft program submitted by the Ministry for Economic Development in April, was significantly edited by the governmental administrative apparatus.

The following of the key avenues of reforms implemented by the Government in May and June may be specifically mentioned.

In the framework of the implemented reform of public service, in May of 2003 the RF President signed the federal law On the system of public service in the Russian Federation. The law determines the legal and organizational principles of the system of public service in the Russian Federation.

A significant problem encountered by small businesses is the considerable number of different checks and inspections. In May of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the first reading the draft federal law On amendments to Article 7 of the federal law On protection of the rights of legal persons and individual entrepreneurs in the course of state control (supervision), presented by the Government of the Russian Federation. According to the bill, it is planned to introduce a moratorium on scheduled inspections of small businesses for the first three years of their operation.

In May of 2003, the Government of the Russian Federation issued its resolution On the authorized federal executive agency in the sphere of the use of electronic digital signature. In accordance with this resolution, the functions of the authorized federal executive agency in the sphere of the use of electronic digital signature were vested with the Ministry of the Russian Federation for communications and informatization. The approval of this resolution is an important step towards an enhancement of efficiency of functioning of the state administration system.

Development of local government is a pressing problem. A key avenue in this sphere is the formation of the necessary legislative base. In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the second reading the draft federal law On the general principles of organization of local government in the Russian Federation. One of the most important issues pertaining to the enhancement of efficiency of the state administration system is the division of powers among different levels of government. In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the third reading the draft federal law On the general principles of organization of legislative (representative) and executive bodies of state power in subjects of the Russian Federation. One of the key avenues of the activities of the Government of the Russian Federation is the continuation of the tax reform.

In June of 2003, the President of the Russian Federation signed the federal law On amendments to the section two of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, amendments to some other legislative acts of the Russian Federation, and abolishment of certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation. The bill supplements the Tax Code of the Russian Federation with the article The system of taxation pertaining to implementation of production sharing agreements. In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the first reading the draft federal law On amendments to articles 21, 22, 25, 26, 262, and 263 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation and some other legislative acts of the Russian Federation on taxes and fees. This draft law envisages the abolishment of excises on natural gas and an increase in the tax rates on extraction of mineral resources in the course of extraction of natural gas, as well as the indexing of the rates of excises.

In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the third reading the draft federal law On amendments to article 21 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, which stipulated a reduction of the rates of the value added tax.

One of the most important avenues of the tax reform is the abolishment of the unnecessary and ineffective tax control over expenditures of individuals. In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the third reading the draft federal law On the abolishment of provisions of RF legislative acts concerning tax control over expenditures of individuals submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation.

In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the first reading the package of draft federal laws submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation, which concerned the reform of the system of property taxes. For instance, the bills stipulated that the Tax Code should be supplemented with article 25.1 The tax on gifts and inheritance and article 30 The tax on property of organizations. The state of the market infrastructure to a considerable extent determines the state of the investment and business climate. This fact determines the priority nature of institutional and infrastructure reforms. In 2003, the major attention is paid to the reform of the financial system and natural monopolies.

The work relating to the reform of railroad transport. In May of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the first reading the draft federal law On amendments to the RF federal law On railroad transport in the Russian Federation and On amendments to the RF federal law On the transport charter of the railroad transport of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation. The bills are aimed to eliminate unjustified expenditures of the federal budget and ensure the interests of the Russian Federation as concerns national defense and security of the state, as well as to define more precisely certain stipulations of these federal laws. Besides, in May of 2003, the Government of the Russian Federation by its resolution approved the plan of measures aimed at the implementation of the program of structural reforms of the railroad transport in 2003 through 2005.

As concerns the sphere of reforming of the housing and public utilities complex, in May of 2003, the President of the Russian Federation signed the federal law On amendments to the law of the Russian Federation On the basic principles of federal housing policy and other legislative acts of the Russian Federation as concerns the improvement of the system of payments for housing and public utility services. In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the third reading the draft federal law On communications (the new version), submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation.

An important problem encountered by Russian entrepreneurs is protection and turnover of information pertaining to commercial secrets. In May of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the first reading the draft federal law On commercial classified information, submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation. The bill regulates relations pertaining to the classification of information as a commercial secret, turnover of such information, and protection of its confidentiality.

It is impossible to ensure high rates of qualitative economic growth without increasing the degree of openness of the economy. The key avenues of the activities of the Government of the Russian Federation in this sphere are: the completion of the harmonization of the Russias legislation with the WTO rules and regulations, further liberalization of the external economic sphere, and a number of other measures.

In May of 2003, the President of the Russian Federation signed the Customs Code of the Russian Federation corresponding to the WTO rules and regulations.

In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the second reading the draft federal law, submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation, On special protective, anti-dumping, and countervailing measures concerning commodity imports, which fully harmonized measures protecting Russias producers from imports to the WTO rules and regulations.

Much attention was paid to the social sphere. The key objectives for year 2003 are: the reform of health care and education, which primarily account for the quality of human capital, and continuation of the pension reform.

There was continued the work on formation of the legislative base of the pension reform.

In June of 2003, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted a resolution concerning realization of the right of an insured person to choose the investment portfolio (managing company) in accordance with the federal law On investment for financing of the accumulated part of the labor pension in the Russian Federation. In particular, this resolution approves the Rules of information of insured persons on the state of the special part of the individual personal account and the procedure of submission of applications of insured persons concerning the choice of the investment portfolio (managing company).

In June of 2003, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation passed in the second reading the draft federal law, submitted to the State Duma by the Government of the Russian Federation, On the minimal amount of payment for labor. The bill envisages that the minimal amount of payment for labor shall be increased up to Rub.

600 per month since October 1, 2003.

Besides, in June of 2003, the Government of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation the draft federal law On amendments to article 1 of the federal law On the tariff rate (salary) of the first pay grade of the Single Tariff Scale pertaining to the remuneration of labor of employees of organizations in the budgetary sphere. The bill envisages that the tariff rate of the first STS pay grade shall be set at Rub. 600 since October 1, 2003.

As concerns the sphere of education, one of the most important avenues of activities in this area is the introduction of special education programs in general education establishments implementing programs of secondary (complete) general education, what will permit more completely take into account the requirements of the labor market and create conditions allowing to ensure that students may consciously choose their future occupations. In June of 2003, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted its resolution approving this experiment. The experiment is aimed at the creation of the system of specialized (profile) education of students of the higher grades of general education school, approbation of the new content and forms of organization of educational process.

O. Fomichev The State of the Federal Budget In the first four months of 2003, the revenues of the state budget (cash execution) made 21 % of GDP, while expenditures made 17.7 % of GDP (see Table 1). Therefore, the federal budget surplus made 3.3 % of GDP.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP1, in comparable prices).

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