Deposits of resident enterprises: 01.02 04.Moscow and Regional banks Moscow and Regional banks Moscow oblast Moscow oblast banks banks Demand deposits 3.8 1.0 2.5 1.Up to 90 days 51.4 24.0 38.5 20.91 to 180 days 11.1 18.2 11.8 17.181 days to 1 year 10.0 21.7 14.1 25.More than 1 year, of which 23.7 35.1 33.1 35.Over 3 years 16.3 14.2 20.6 16.Memorandum:
Average amount of assets, 4430 1025 4791 (current prices, Rb. bln) Number of banks 333 463 319 Note: Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK * values at the beginning of a month for banks attracting deposits of resident enterprises and organizations Table 4.
Time structure of forex denominated deposits of enterprises as on January 1, 2002 and March 1, (in %, without deposit certificates).
Deposits of resident enterprises: 01.02 04.Moscow and Regional banks Moscow and Moscow Regional banks Moscow oblast oblast banks banks Demand deposits 1.1 0.0 3.1 0.Up to 90 days 20.7 81.0 12.1 79.91 to 180 days 5.6 2.4 8.5 2.181 days to 1 year 41.9 10.7 37.4 9.More than 1 year, of which 30.7 5.9 38.9 8.Over 3 years 15.6 1.2 14.3 1.Memorandum:
Average amount of assets, (current 10038 3153 10047 prices, Rb. bln) Number of banks 127 102 130 Note: Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK * values at the beginning of a month for banks attracting deposits of resident enterprises and organizations Ye. Marushkina, Ye. Timofeyev Investment in the real sector The international ranking agency Fitch has increased the long term forex ranking of the RF and the ranking of Russian Eurobonds to BB- (from B+). The ranking agency Fitch has stated that the increase in payments relating to the sovereign debt in 2003 does not present a serious problem, even if oil prices fall significantly.
In January through May of 2002, the amount of investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing made Rub. 468.5, or 101.7 % of the level registered in the respective period of the previous year.
FIGURE 1. CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENT IN FIXED ASSETS ACROSS THE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY IN THE 1ST QUARTER OF 2000 THROUGH 2002, IN % OF THE RESPECTIVE QUARTER OF THE PRECEDING YEAR жилищно-коммунальное хозяйство Торговля Строительство Связь Транспорт Сельское хозяйство Промышленность -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2000 - 2001 2001 - The major factor constraining investment activity was a trend towards a decline in internal sources of investment resources of the real sector of the economy related to a decrease in profitability observed since the 4th quarter of 2001. Besides, the changes in the taxation of profits, and the abolishment of privileges relating to a considerable number of spheres of investment activities were also among the factors affecting investment activity.
The lesser intensity of investment inflows in the real sector of the economy in 2002 was observed at the background of changes in the sectoral structure of investment. The share of investment in fixed assets of manufacturing industries increased from 52.4 % in 2001 to 54.1 %. The changes in proportions of investment across the sectors of the economy was practically completely determined by a considerable decrease of investment in transport.
In 2002, investment in industry and communications grew at outpacing rates. The change in the structure of investment across industries was characterized by an increase in the share of the fuel complex and food industry.
In spite of an increase in the share of oil extracting industry in the total amount of investment in the economy from 16.2 % in the 1st quarter of 2001 to 17.8 % in the respective period of this year, the industry demonstrated deteriorating indicators of the reproduction of fixed capital. In January through April of 2002, the commissioning of drilling wells decreased by 2.1 %, production drilling contracted by 15.9 %, and surveying drilling fell by 35 %.
Taking into account the traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries of the oil and raw materials sectors and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals, it may be hardly expected that the rate of investment would increase and radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital. An analysis reveals that the deficit of capacities is forming in a whole number of industries: oil processing, chemical complex, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, and mechanical engineering.
FIGURE CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENT ACROSS INDUSTRIES IN THE 1ST QUARTER OF 2000 THROUGH 2002, IN % OF THE RESPECTIVE QUARTER OF THE PRECEDING YEAR Food industry Forestry Mechanical engineering Chemistry and Petro-Chemistry Non-ferrous metallurgy Ferrous metallurgy Natural gas Oil processing Oil extraction Fuel industry Power engineering Industry -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 2000 - 2001 2001 - As the rate of growth in output and profits of enterprises decelerated, there were observed changes in the structure of the sources of financing of investment. The share of internal funds of enterprises allocated for the financing of investment decreased by 4 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2001. The decrease of the share of bank credits and other borrowings in the structure of borrowed funds persists. In the situation, where the internal funds in the real sector of the economy are limited and it is impossible to borrow funds for a long term, the Russia’s economy reproduces the conditions provoking the shrinking of internal investment demand.
Table Structure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing, in % of the result of the quarter of the respective year 1st quarter 2000 2001 Investment in fixed assets 100 100 Including Internal funds 57,0 49,6 53,Of which:
Profits at the disposal of organizations 18,3 23,5 21,Amortization 18,2 21,8 27, Borrowed funds 43,0 50,4 46, Of which:
Bank credits 5,8 4,4 3,Borrowings from other organizations 7,8 6,2 4,Budgetary means 18,6 18,8 18, Including:
Federal budget 4,5 4,3 3,Budgets of RF subjects 13,2 13,4 13,Extra-budgetary funds 2,8 4,9 1,Source: RF Goskomstat O. Izryadnova Foreign investment in the Russia’s economy As of April 1, 2002, the accumulated foreign capital in the Russia’s economy, including the investment from CIS member countries, made US $ 34.44 billion.
The total amount of foreign investment in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy (not taking into account the monetary and credit regulating authorities, commercial and savings banks, and including Ruble denominated investment in US $ equivalent made US $ 3789 million in the 1st quarter of 2002, what was by 39.4 per cent more than in the respective period of the preceding year. In spite of a considerable inflow of foreign investment in January through March, this year is characterized by an increase in export of capital as compared with the respective period of the last year:
1st quarter, US $ mil. Change in comparison with the (as of April 1) respective period of the preceding year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2000 Investment accumulated by the 35 338 29 253 32 005 35 624 -17,2% 9,4% 11,3% beginning of the period Investment received over the 1 556 2 445 2 718 3789 57,1% 11,2% 39,4% period Investment accumulated by the end 26 019 27 672 31 893 34 436 6,4% 15,3% 8,0% of the period Total withdrawal (repayment) of 10 875 4 026 2 830 4 977 -63,0% -29,7% 75,9% investment over the period Source: RF Goskomstat The growth in the amounts of exported capitals is related, first of all, to the increase in the amount of other investment, which are mainly formed at the expense of credits received from not direct investors, observed in the previous years. For instance, in the 1st quarter of 2002, the amount of “other” investment also grew more than direct and portfolio investment in absolute terms (by US $ 1.16 billion as compared with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2001).
In comparison with the preceding year, the structure of foreign investment in the 1st quarter of changed: the specific weight of direct investment declined, while the share of “other” investment grew:
1st quarter Total Direct Portfolio Other US $ mil.
1999 1556 600 3 2000 2446 853 8 2001 2718 962 45 2002 3789 829 88 In % of the total 1999 100% 38,6% 0,2% 61,2% 2000 100% 34,9% 0,3% 64,8% 2001 100% 35,4% 1,7% 63,0% 2002 100% 21,9% 2,3% 75,8% In % of the respective period of the preceding year 1999 -60,8% -17,4% -80,0% -70,5% 2000 57,2% 42,2% 166,7% 66,3% 2001 11,1% 12,8% 462,5% 7,9% 2002 39,4% -13,8% 95,6% 67,9% The negative development in the investment sphere was the fact that the amount of direct investment fell for the third quarter running. For instance, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2001, as compared with respective periods of 2000, these amounts declined by 70 and 16.9 % respectively. In the 1st quarter of 2002, this indicator made –13.8 %. The positive fact is that the rates of decrease in direct investment in the Russia’s economy decelerate.
This year, the sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy is characterized by the persistence of the leading role played by the industrial sector, trade, and public catering.
Отраслевая структура иностранных инвестиций в РФ в 1квартале соответствующего года.
5,5% Промышленность 6,2% 7,2% 2002 46,3% 34,4% Строительство 1,7% 3,9% Транспорт и связь 2001 43,5% 13,5% 26,3% 10,6% 1,8% 4,1% Торговля и обществ.питание 2000 37,4% 27,1% 14,8% 14,3% Общ.ком.деят-ь по обесп.
Прочие отрасли 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The amount of foreign investment in industry in the 1st quarter of 2002 made US $ 1755 mil., what is by 48.5 % above the level registered in January through March of 2001. At the same time, investment in fuel industry increased four times and made US $ 589 mil.
ОSectoral structure of foreign investment in the industrial sector in the 1st quarter of 2002 (the data for the 1st quarter of 2001 are in brackets) Other industries 11.Forestry and wood % (12.5 %) working 3.5 % Fuel industry 33.6 % (3.8 %) (12.4 %) Food industry 21.4 % (31 %) Mechanical Metallurgy 24.2 % engineering and metal (31.2 %) working 6.3 % (9.%) In spite of the decline in the specific weight of a number of industries, the investment in the industrial sector as broken down by industries increased in absolute terms. Foreign investment in metallurgy made US $ 425 mil. (US $ 369 mil. in the 1st quarter of 2001), in food industry - US $ 375 mil. (US $ 367 mil. in the 1st quarter of 2001), in mechanical engineering and metal working - US $ 111 mil. (US $ 108 mil. in the 1st quarter of 2001), in forestry, wood working, and pulp and paper industry – US $ 62 mil. (US $ 45 mil. in the 1st quarter of 2001).
The major part (82.5 %) of foreign direct investment was made in the industrial sector, trade, and public catering. Foreign direct investment in industry made 49.1 % of the total direct investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2002 (40.3 % in the 1st quarter of 2001), in trade and public catering – 33.4 % (24.4 % in the 1st quarter of 2001, 11 % in the 1st quarter of 2000).
Germany (18.9 % of attracted foreign investment in the 1st quarter of 2002), Cyprus (18.4 %), UK and the Netherlands (8.9 % each), USA (8.7 %), and France (8.7 %) were leaders in the geographical structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in the 1st quarter of 2002. On the whole, in January through March of 2002, 81 countries invested in Russia (88 countries in the 1st quarter of 2001, 89 countries in the 1st quarter of 2000).
The geographical structure of accumulated foreign capital (as on April 1, 2002) significantly differs from the similar structure of foreign investment in Russia made in January through March of 2002.
Geographical structure of investment in the RF accumulated by April 1, Other countries Germany 18.3 % 26.0 % USA 15.4 % the Netherlands 6.8 % France 9.7 % Cyprus 13.2 % UK 10.6 % Among major countries-investors, UK and the Netherlands demonstrated the largest increase in the amount of accumulated foreign investment (as on April 1, 2002, in comparison with the figures registered on April 1, 2001): +55.9 % and +42.7 % respectively. At the same time, the accumulated investment from UK and the Netherlands decreased by 4 % and 8 % respectively since the beginning of the year. As on April 1st, 2002, investment form the USA decreased the most (-17.7 % in comparison with the figures registered on April 1, 2001, and 05.8 % in comparison with the figures registered in the beginning of 2002).
The amount of accumulated foreign investment in the Russia’s economy as broken down by investing countries in the 1st quarter of 2002.
Direct Portfolio Other In the 1st quarter of 2002, capitals from Germany were primarily invested in trade and public catering, where German business persons invested US $ 515 mil., or 72 % of the aggregate German investment made in January through March of 2002. Investors from USA preferred to make investments in the industrial sector (40 % of investment from USA), the main part of which (63.2 %) was made in mechanical engineering and metal working.
Both the increase in the Russia’s credit ranking (the international agency Fitch increased the RF sovereign credit ranking from “stable” to “positive” this spring) and the decision to recognize the market status of the Russia’s economy may have a positive effect on the investment climate in the country.
E. Ilyukhina The real sector of economy: factors and trends According to the results of planned data revision published by Goskomstat, the amount of GDP in the 1st quarter of 2002 increased by 3.7 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made Rub. 2265.9 billion in current prices. The stable growth of GDP has been registered since the 2nd quarter of 1999 and is supported by dynamic development of the base economic sectors.
FIGURE CHANGES IN THE REAL GDP AND DYNAMICS OF OUTPUT OF BASE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY IN 1999 THROUGH 2002, IN % OF THE RESPECTIVE PERIOD OF THE PRECEDING YEAR ---Transport Construction Trade Agriculture Industry GDP The changes in the external business situation and growth of world prices of hydrocarbon raw materials have positively affected the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. In January through March of 2002, the increase in output of the base sectors of the economy made 3.6 % as compared to the figures registered in the US $ mil.
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