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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES JUNE 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 © Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, ИД № 02079 от 19 июня 2000 г.

© © © 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget....................................................................................................... 3 Monetary Policy........................................................................................................................................ 6 Financial Markets..................................................................................................................................... 8 Deposits of Enterprises and Organizations: Dynamics in the 1st quarter of 2002......................... 17 Investment in the real sector........................................................................................................... 20 Foreign investment in the Russia’s economy............................................................................. 22 The real sector of economy: factors and trends................................................................................... 25 Oil and Natural Gas Sector................................................................................................................ 27 Foreign trade.......................................................................................................................................... 30 On the progress of reforms in June of 2002.............................................................................. 32 2 The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, in January through May of 2002 the revenues of the federal budget made Rub. 820.0 billion, and expenditures (in terms of fulfilled financing) – Rub. 767.1 billion.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP, in comparable prices).

IV`01 III`02 IV`I`01 II`01 III`01 XII`01 I`02 II`Revenues Corporate profit tax 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 2,4% 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,0% 9,2% 9,0% 9,1% 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,7% 6,8% 6,7% 6,7% 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% Total- taxes and charges 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% Non- tax revenues 3,6% 4,1% 4,1% 4,0% 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% Revenues, total 1,1% 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% Expenditure 15,2% 15,7% 15,7% 16,3% 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% Public administration 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% National defense 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% International activities Judicial power 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 1,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,5% 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Services provided for the national economy 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 0,7% 1,1% 1,3% 1,4% 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% Servicing of public debt 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,6% 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% Expenditure, total 1,3% 1,6% 1,9% 2,1% 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,3% 3,1% 2,9% 3,0% 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% Budget deficit (-) 10,4% 14,4% 14,2% 14,1% 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% Domestic financing 5,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,4% 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% Other taxes, duties and payments -3,7% -0,8% -0,6% -1,1% -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% Total- taxes and charges -2,1% -1,7% -2,1% -2,3% -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% Non- tax revenues -5,8% -2,5% -2,6% -3,4% -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing) V`01 IV`02 V`I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`Total 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,6% 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,3% 20,8% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9% 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and 1,7% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,7% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% security activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,4% 0,3% 0,6% national economy 1,1% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,3% 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 3,4% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 2,6% 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 2,5% 2,7% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 6,9% Total expenditure 15,3% 18,3% 17,2% 16,4% 16,2% 15,0% 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,2% 19,5% Proficit (+) / deficit (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,7% 2,6% 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,3% The data on the execution of the federal budget in the first quarter of 2002 are presented in Table 11. As of May 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal budget accounted for 21.2 % of GDP, including tax revenues at Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

19.9 %, while expenditures made 16.9 % of GDP (19.2 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding2), including non-interest ones – 14.3 % of GDP (16.5 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 4.3 % of GDP (2.1 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding, 1.3 % of GDP in May).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through April of 2002 somewhat increased as compared to the figures registered in the 1st quarter. The tax revenues in January through April of 2002 made 16.0 % of GDP (without the single social tax).

The expenditures for the servicing of the public debt in January through April of 2002 made 2.6 % of GDP (significantly below 3.7 % observed in 2001). As concerns other expenditures of the federal budget, it shall be noted that in April the expenditures for national defense increased, and therefore the gap between the figures registered in this period and the indicators of the preceding year continued to narrow (2.3 % of GDP in April and 1.9 % of GDP in March).

As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures in the first five months of 2002 made 19.5 %, what by 3.3 p. p. of GDP exceeds the expenditures in the preceding year.

As on June 1, according to preliminary estimates, the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) diminished by Rb. 10.0 bln.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 240,9% The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 13. In May, there was registered an increase in tax revenue arrears of the federal budget, relating to both profit tax and VAT.

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

Since 2001 the form of the MTC’s presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) 200% 180% Profit tax VAT 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expendit 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% ures Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expendit 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% ures Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expendit 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% ures Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ Х XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expendit 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% ures Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% Expendit 18,3% ures 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% * Без учета ЕСН The level of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in January through April of 2002 somewhat increased in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2002, what is a natural development in the beginning of the 2nd quarter.

Besides, the surplus of the consolidated budget still exceeds the level observed in the preceding year, although it declined in comparison with levels of preceding months. Уровень налоговых поступлений в консолидированный бюджет за январь-апрель 2002 года вырос по сравнению с показателем за I квартал 2002 г, что вполне естественно для начала II квартала. Кроме того, профицит June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May консолидированного бюджета по-прежнему превышает уровень прошлого года, хотя разрыв за последние месяцы и сократился.

The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the table4. The estimate was revised as compared to the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

Всего налоговых Всего налоговых Всего Всего Всего Всего поступлений в поступлений в поступлений поступлений поступлений поступлений НДС консолидированн федеральный налога на прибыльналога на прибыль подоходного ВВП ый бюджет РФ бюджет РФ (без в в федеральный налога в (без ЕСН) ЕСН) консолидированн бюджет РФ консолидированн ый бюджет РФ ый бюджет РФ ARIMA 3935,Июнь 34,2% 20,0% 7,8% 2,8% 3,8% 8,3% 4808,Июль 32,7% 19,3% 7,4% 2,6% 3,7% 8,0% 5759,Август 31,4% 18,6% 6,9% 2,5% 3,7% 7,8% REM Июнь 3935,33,1% 20,2% 6,9% 4,0% 2,7% 8,4% Июль 4808,32,4% 19,8% 6,8% 3,9% 2,6% 8,1% Август 5759,32,0% 19,2% 7,0% 3,8% 2,6% 7,9% The major developments in the sphere of budgetary policy in June was the publication of the budgetary address of the President and approval of the key budget parameters for year 2003 by the government.

According to the draft parameters (as on June 20, 2002), the revenues of the enlarged government will make 38.96 % of GDP, the expenditures –35.31 % of GDP (including non-interest expenditures at 32.95 % of GDP). The level of surplus of the federal budget will make 3.37 % of GDP, revenues – 15.77 % of GDP, expenditures – 12.4 % of GDP, including non-interest expenditures at 10.2 % of GDP. The draft budget for 2003 is calculated basing on the estimated GDP at Rub. 12 trillion 850 billion, proceeding from the average annual Rub. 34.0 / US $ exchange rate and oil prices (URALS) at US $ 21.5 per barrel.

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In May 2002 the consumer price index grew by 1.7%, thus it was 0.5 percentage points higher than in the previous month. In total, the inflation rate was 8.4% for five months of 2002. The commodity structure of consumer prices growth allocated like: food stuffs – 2.2%, non-food goods – 1.2%, services – 1.0%. Prices for fruits and vegetables were rising in May at the highest pace (15.0%) and they added most to the food stuff price index growth. Excluding fruits and vegetables, the food stuff price index rose by 0.4%. Therefore, the inflation in the month was mainly due to seasonal factors.

Among non-food goods we should mark out a spike of petroleum prices, which induced a wide public response. In May the petroleum retail price index amounted to 110.7%. In particular, low-octane petroleum sorts like А-76 (АI-80 etc.) went up by 12.5%, АI-92 (АI-93 etc.) – by 10.5%, and high-octane sorts (АI-and higher) – by 6.3%. The price growth for fuel varied across regions. The highest pace was fixed in Ulianovsk region – 52.8%. In June the prices continued growing. The weekly increment of petroleum prices between June 3 to June 10 made 3.7%, and between June 10 to June 17 – 2.0%.

Nevertheless, the final CPI growth rate in June was below the respective May’s figure (see Fig. 1).

According to preliminary estimates, the consumer price index rose at most by 1.0–1.2%.

4 For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

FIGURE 1.

Consumer Price Index in 1,2% 1,0% 0,8% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% FIGURE 2.

Dynamics of Monetary Base and Foreign Reserves of the RCB in 790 43,43,42,Monetary Base (bln. rub.) 42,Foreign Reserves (bln. doll.) 41,41,40,40,39,39,38,38,37,37,36,660 36,In early-summer 2002 the inflation process was influenced by both monetary and non-monetary factors.

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