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The increase in the volume of newly issued housing credits over the month reached the level when its volume compensates the sums of credit repayment, as a result the volume of debt ceased to decrease both for the mortgages and for the housing credits on the whole (fig. 1).

The proportion of mortgages in foreign currency in the volume of the credits issued in November 2009 made 6.88%. As on December 1, 2009 the proportion of such credits in the outstanding debt was at the level of 19.73% (fig. 2).

As on December 1, 2009 the interest rate for credits issued in rubles over the month reduced to 13.9%, and the average 35 1,30 weighted interest rate for credits issued in foreign 30 1,currency made 13.0%. (fig.

25 1,3). The average weighted interest rate for credits 20 1,refinance by the open-joint 15 1,company Agency for Home Mortgage Lending reduced 10 1,to 11.5% in November versus 5 1,12.05% in October 2009.

Starting with December 28, 0 0,2009 the refi nancing rate of the Bank of Russia makes 8.75%. Following it the average weighted interest Volume of mortgages issued to natural persons (left-hand scale, RUR billion).

rates for mortgages reduce.

According to the data Stale debt for issued mortgages (left-hand scale, RUR billion) of Kreditmart the average Outstanding debt for issued mortgages (right-hand scale, RUR trillion) market price of mortgages Outstanding debt for issued home loans (right-hand scale, RUR trillion) in rubles in December reduced down to 17.58% Source: according to the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (18.06 in November 2009, 18.22% in January 2009). As Fig. 1.Dynamics of Issuing of Home Credits in compared with November 2009 the average market RUR billion IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION interest rates for credits in US dollars reduced down to 14.36% (15.21% in November 2009, 14.49% in January 2009).

As on December 31, 2009 the Agency for Home Mortgage Lending refinanced 164 407 mortgages the volume of the main debt being RUR 134 062.million. In December AMHL refinanced 5 837 mortgages of RUR 5.56 billion, which is two times more than the volume of refinancing both in November (RUR 2.68 billion) and in December 2008 (RUR 2.89 billion). Over 2009 the Agency refinanced the mortgages worth Proportion of credits in foreign currency in the RUR 28.77 billion, which is slightly amount of mortgages issued over the month more than in 2008 (RUR 26.43 billion).

Proportion of credits in foreign currency in the The Agency is going to create a filial outstanding debt for mortgages company of mortgage insurance, which allows increasing the ratio of credit to Source: according to the data of the Central Bank of the Russian mortgage for the insured clients.

Federation The closed joint-stock company CB DeltaCredit issued 2 444 mortgages Fig. 2. Dynamics of Mortgages in Foreign Currency of RUR 4.8 billion in 2008. The credit portfolio of the bank made RUR 47 billion as in December 31, 2009. At the moment the minimum rate of DeltaCredit for ruble credits makes 12.5% and for credits in US dollars 7.75%. In January 2010 Sberbank of Russia resumes issuing housing credits of natural persons in foreign currency and reduces the interest rates for a number of credit products. Sberbank creates credit reference bureau with a planned number of 23 million of references. VTB 24 resumes the program of refinancing of mortgages issued by other banks. The volume of a new credit should exceed the sum necessary to settle the 17,5 existing credit and the 15,difference the borrower 16,can spend on any purposes.

The supervisory board 14,15,of Vnesheconombank established the program of 13,14,investments in bonds with 14 mortgage backing at the expense of RUR 50 billion of own funds and RUR billion of funds of retirement Average weighted period of crediting for mortgages issued in rubles over savings in November the month, left-hand scale, years 2009. In December Average weighted period of crediting for housing loans issued in rubles over the Government of the the month, left-hand scale, years Republic of Mordovia, Average weighted interest rates for mortgages issued in rubles over the AHML and Mordovia month, right-hand scale, % mortgage corporation Average weighted interest rates for housing credits issued in rubles over the signed the agreement month, right-hand scale, % on the collaboration for fulfillment of the program Source: according to the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for stimulation of the crediting of the construction Fig. 3. Average Period of Repayment and Average Interest of the economic housing.

Rates for Credits in Rubles ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table AVERAGE MARKET INTEREST RATE FOR CREDITS IN RUBLES, AS PERCENTAGE October 2009 November 2009 December Credit product min max min max min max Credit for purchase of a flat at the secondary hous16.58 19.27 15.86 18.68 15.45 18.ing market Purposeful credit on mortgage of the present object 18.92 21.71 18.56 21.24 17.99 20.of immovable property Credit for purchase of a house with a land plot at 16.92 18.68 16.16 17.86 15.56 17.the secondary housing market Source: according to the data of Kreditmart In concordance with new Federal Law adopted in January 2010 On making changes to article of the Federal Law On banks and banking activity the banks loose the possibility to unilaterally decide on the increase of the interest rates for the agreements with the borrowers that are natural persons and to increase and establish the commission for its operations.

THE STATE BUDGET THE STATE BUDGET E.Fomina In January 2010 it became possible to make a preliminary estimation of the 2009 federal budgets execution on the basis of budget statistics for last years first 11 months. The actual receipts of federal budget revenue exceeded the planned parameters by 9 p. p., whereas the execution of federal budget revenue amounted to 97 % of budget revenue and expenditure. As a result, federal budget deficit was by 1.4 p. p. of GDP below the level determined in the budget law and amounted to 5.9 % of GDP.

At the same time, the macroeconomic situation remains tense and poorly predictable; the recent economic revival is unstable, and there still exist risks for the stability of this countrys financial system. It is in these conditions that the necessity of continuing the governments anti-crisis policy in order to achieve a reliable trajectory of stable economic growth.

An analysis of the main parameters of the execution of the general government budget in January November According to the preliminary estimates of the general government budgets execution in the first 11 months of 2009, the revenue volume dropped by 4.9 p. p. of GDP on the corresponding period of 2008, while the expenditure volume, on the contrary, increased by 7.1 p. p. of GDP. As of 1 December 2009, the general government budget deficit amounted to 3.2 % of GDP, while in the corresponding period of 2008 the budget of general government was executed with a surplus of 8.% of GDP (see Table 1).


GDP billion billion % GDP % GDP rubles rubles Federal budget Revenue 8,663.4 22.3 6,445.9 18.2 4.Expenditure 6,152.2 15.8 8,178.8 23.0 + 7.Deficit ( ) /Surplus ( +) 2,511.2 6.5 1,732.9 4.8 11.Consolidated budgets of RF subjects Revenue 5,575.4 14.3 5,267.8 14.8 + 0.Expenditure 5,047.9 13.0 5,157.3 14.5 + 1.Deficit () /Surplus (+) 527.5 1.3 110.5 0.3 1.General government budget Revenue 14,743.2 38.3 11,871.7 33.4 4.Expenditure 11,,363.2 29.5 12,995.1 36.6 + 7.Deficit ( ) /Surplus ( +) 3,380.0 8.8 1,123.4 3.2 12.For reference:

38,493.8 35,500.GDP, billion rubles Source: RF Ministry of Finance, IET estimations.

Throughout the year 2009, the resources of the general government budget remained highly depended on the external market situation: the parameters of the revenue inflow were fluctuating depending on prices and demand for Russian export commodities, and mostly the products of the fuel and energy complex. While looking at the structure of general government budget revenue (Table 2), it can be noted that the most dramatic drop was demonstrated by the revenues from tax on mineral resources extraction and foreign trade.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Alongside the market factors, budget revenue was influenced by the difficulties experienced by the domestic economy, which resulted in a sudden reduction of the receipts of tax on profit of organizations due to a shrinking taxable base.

The volume of revenues from tax on mineral resources extraction and foreign trade first 11 months of 2009 amounted to 2.7 % and 6.5 % of GDP respectively. Even the situation on foreign markets in the last few months of 2009, which was better by comparison with that early in the year, failed to reverse the trend of rapid decline of the receipts of these taxes in the budgetary system. In addition to the external factors, the declining revenues from tax on incomes of enterprises and organizations were influenced by the alterations in tax administration introduced from early 2009.

In January November 2009, the inflow of organizations profit tax into the general governments budget sharply declined and amounted, in relative terms, to 3.2 % of GDP against 6.1 % of GDP in the corresponding period of 2008. The financial situation of Russian enterprises, by and large, remains very difficult, thus resulting in shrinkage of the taxable base. As demonstrated by the data for the first 11 months of 2009, the share of profit-making organizations in the overall number of organizations by comparison with the corresponding period of last year dropped by 5.p. p. and amounted to 67 %, which resulted in the aggregate balance of the real sector amounting to 3,639.3 billion rubles, which is by more than 1.2 times lower than the same index in the corresponding period of 2008. The worst financial results for the first 11 months of 2009 were demonstrated by companies manufacturing electrical equipment and means of transportation, as well as chemical products.

As before, the size of the taxable base was being negatively influenced by a number of amendments introduced in Chapter 25 of the RF Tax Code, which came into force from early 2009 and addressed the administration of organizations profit tax and the improvement of taxpayers situation. The most important alterations were the lowering of the base tax rate (from 24 % to 20 %), as well as the increased depreciation bonus (the changing to costs in a current tax period of part of the initial value of fixed assets) from 10 to 30 %.


2008 2009 GDP Tax burden level (1 + 2 + 3) 35.7 30.3 5.Tax revenues (1), including: 24.0 20.5 3.organizations profit tax 6.1 3.2 2.PIT 3.8 4.1 + 0.SST* 1.9 2.0 + 0.VAT 5.2 5.3 + 0.Excise 0.8 0.9 + 0.Tax on mineral resources extraction 4.2 2.7 1.Insurance contributions to mandatory pension 3.0 3.3 + 0.insurance (2) Revenues from foreign trade (3) 8.7 6.5 2.* without insurance contributions to mandatory pension insurance.

Source: RF Ministry of Finance; Rosstat; IET estimations.

Alongside the significant drop in the inflow of profit tax and mineral extraction tax, the volume of budget revenues from VAT for January November 2009 somewhat increased in relative terms:

the inflow of this tax into the general governments budget amounted to 0.1 p.p. of GDP, whereas in nominal terms it noticeable declined. The reason for the drop in revenues from VAT in absolute terms in the general governments budget during the first 11 months of 2009 became both the overall slowdown of business activity and the adoption of some measures aimed at improving the procedures of calculating and administering this tax, including the abolition of payment of VAT in cash in instances of non-cash settlements, exemption from VAT of technological equipment, and the granting of the right to deduct VAT from advance payments.

THE STATE BUDGET The volume of revenues from PIT in the general government budget reached the level of 4.1 % of GDP, which is by 0.3 p. p. of GDP higher than the index recorded in the corresponding period of last year. This pattern of revenues from PIT in relative terms can be explained by the accelerated rate of drop in GDP, as compared to the pattern displayed by the populations disposable incomes.

According to preliminary estimates, the increase of the populations real disposable incomes (incomes less mandatory payments, adjusted by consumer price index (CPI)) in 2009 reproduced the dynamics noted in 2008 and amounted to 1.9 p.p. At the same time, from the year 2009 onwards some privileges were introduced that decreased the taxable base for PIT.

Against the backdrop of the dwindling general governments budget revenue, in January November 2009 budget expenditure was growing at an accelerated rate, mostly due to the dynamics of federal budget revenue (Table 3). General government budget expenditure in the first 11 months of 2009 amounted to 36.6 % of GDP against 29.5 % of GDP in 2008 (Table 3).


2008 p. of GDP billion rubles as % of GDP billion rubles as % of GDP Expenditure, total 11363.2 29.5 12995.1 36.6 + 7. including Nationwide issues 1053.5 2.7 1072.5 3.0 + 0.Of these, servicing of state and 174.7 0.5 211.0 0.6 + 0.municipal debts National defense 781.8 2.0 923.1 2.6 + 0.National security and law907.6 2.4 1052.4 2.9 + 0.enforcement activity National economy 1766.5 4.6 2161.1 6.1 + 1.Housing and utilities system 827.2 2.2 782.5 2.2 + 0.Environment protection 24.5 0.06 23.4 0.07 + 0.Education 1356.0 3.5 1470.9 4.1 + 0.Culture, cinematography and 252.8 0.7 267.9 0.8 + 0.mass media Public health care and sports 1271.8 3.3 1368.4 3.9 + 0.Social policy 3,121.6 8.1 3,871.4 10.9 + 2.Source: RF Treasury, IET estimations.

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